Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,994 points, up 168 points or 0.7% [2] - The market's trading volume increased to HKD 263 billion, a rise of 10.2% from the previous day, with the Stock Connect contributing nearly HKD 160.4 billion, accounting for 30.5% of total trading [2] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 7.051 billion, an increase of 18.9% from the previous day, with the most net purchases in stocks like Dongfang Electric and China Energy Construction [2][3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices, 10 sectors rose while 2 declined, with materials, energy, and real estate sectors outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 0.66% [3] - The infrastructure and construction materials sectors experienced significant growth following the announcement of a major hydropower project in Tibet, with total planned investment of approximately RMB 1.2 trillion [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Great Wall Motors - Great Wall Motors is expected to achieve revenue of HKD 92.3 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, with a net profit of HKD 6.34 billion, down 10.2% year-on-year [8][9] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of HKD 52.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.8%, with a net profit of HKD 4.59 billion, up 19.1% year-on-year and 161.9% quarter-on-quarter [9][10] - The company sold 313,000 vehicles in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.9%, with significant growth in new energy vehicle sales [9][10] Group 4: Future Outlook for Great Wall Motors - Great Wall Motors plans to enhance its product matrix with multiple new vehicle launches in the second half of 2025, focusing on hybrid models and accelerating the introduction of smart new energy products [10] - The target price for Great Wall Motors is set at HKD 18.0, corresponding to a 10.3 times forecasted P/E ratio for 2025, with a buy rating maintained [8][10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,825 points, up 326 points or 1.33%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 1.65%, outperforming the broader market for six consecutive trading days [2][3] - The market saw a net inflow of capital from the north, with a net inflow of 5.931 billion HKD on Friday, an increase of 219.7% from the previous day [2] - The overall trading volume on the main board was 238.7 billion HKD, a slight increase of 0.96% compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - All 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices rose, with leading sectors including materials, consumer discretionary, financials, and consumer staples, showing gains between 1.29% and 2.47%, surpassing the Hang Seng Composite Index's increase of 1.23% [3] - Underperforming sectors included utilities, telecommunications, real estate, and conglomerates, with gains ranging from 0.20% to 0.65% [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Anta Sports (2020.HK) - Anta's main brand reported low single-digit growth in revenue for Q2 2025, slightly below expectations, with children's products performing better than adult products [6] - The company is implementing a "lighthouse store plan" to enhance its offline presence while synchronizing online and offline strategies [6] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance Anta's market position in the outdoor apparel segment, leveraging its supply chain and distribution capabilities [7] Group 4: Financial Projections - The report forecasts Anta's EPS for 2025-2027 to be 4.72, 5.26, and 5.88 HKD respectively, with a target price of 113.6 HKD based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 113.6, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HKD 92.45 [6]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, slightly below expectations, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth. Other brands saw significant growth of 50-55% [2][3]. - The company has completed the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin, a German outdoor brand, for USD 290 million, which is expected to enhance its presence in the outdoor market in China [3]. - The financial projections for EPS from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 4.72, RMB 5.26, and RMB 5.88 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory despite some fluctuations in profit margins [4][3]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with children's products performing better than bulk items. The overall H1 performance showed mid-single-digit growth [2]. - FILA's Q2 2025 revenue growth was in the mid-single digits, aligning with expectations, while other brands, including Descente and KOLON, reported over 40% and 70% growth respectively [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62.36 billion in 2023 to RMB 92.97 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.8% [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 13.25 billion, reflecting a decrease of 15% compared to 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a 2025 PE ratio of 22 times, based on industry averages and brand premium considerations, supporting the target price of HKD 113.6 [3][4]. - The projected gross margin remains stable around 62%, with net profit margins expected to fluctuate between 16.9% and 17.8% over the forecast period [4][11].

SDICSI 2025 年 7 月 18 日 港股通名单观察 港股通名单 25H1 检讨预测 恒生指数有限公司（恒指公司）将于 8 月 22 日发布恒生指数系列（包括恒生综 指）的 25H1 检讨结果，相关变动将于 9 月 8 日生效。由于恒生综指的变动将影 响港股通名单，其变动受到投资者的高度重视。是次检讨，我们预期：【 1 】纳入 恒生综指的日均市值门槛从 24H2 检讨时的 60.3 亿港元大升至 73.3 亿港元，剔 出门槛则从 39.3 亿港元大升至 46.3 亿港元；【 2 】 20 只非 A+H 股份将因获纳入 恒生综指而成为港股通新贵； 5 只已在 A 股上市近期在港交所主板上市的 H 股 （ A+H 身份），将于稳定股价期结束后，陆续在 7.16-8.13 之间成为港股通。 【 3 】 18 只现有港股通股份将丧失港股通资格。相关股份名单见内文。 我们也对 25H2 的检讨做了一个初步预测。假设上市公司名单及公司市值从目前 （ 7.17 ）至年底保持不变，纳入及剔出恒生综指的日均市值将分别为 88.67 亿及 55.75 亿港元。两只 7 月份上市的半新股可望通过 Q3 检讨入通，另有 6 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that concerns over economic recession have eased, with US stock markets reaching new highs, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may follow suit [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index showed slight fluctuations, closing at 24,498 points, down 18 points or 0.08%, with trading volume decreasing to 236.4 billion HKD, an 8.7% drop from the previous day [2][3] - Northbound trading maintained a net inflow status, with a net inflow of 1.855 billion HKD, an increase of 15.7% from the previous day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices, 6 rose and 6 fell, with the healthcare sector leading with a significant increase of 5.17% [3] - Other sectors that performed well included consumer staples and industrials, with gains ranging from 0.67% to 0.21% [3] - The materials, energy, and financial sectors experienced declines, with losses between 1.00% and 0.31% [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Derlin International (1126.HK) - Derlin International is a leading global toy manufacturer, established in 1992 and listed in Hong Kong in 2002, focusing on designing, developing, producing, and selling toys [6] - The company reported revenues of 27.66 billion HKD from plush toys (50.7% of total revenue) and 23.11 billion HKD from plastic models (42.4% of total revenue) for 2024 [6][8] - Derlin operates 27 factories with an average capacity utilization rate of 80.2% in 2024, with plans for further capacity expansion in Indonesia and Vietnam to meet diverse supply chain demands [7][9] Group 4: Financial Performance - Derlin's revenue over the past three years showed fluctuations: 62.53 billion HKD in 2022, 53.52 billion HKD in 2023, and 54.50 billion HKD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 30.27%, -14.40%, and 1.82% respectively [8] - The gross profit margins were 19.65%, 25.12%, and 23.01% for the same years, influenced by product mix changes [8] - The net profit figures were 6.87 billion HKD, 8.30 billion HKD, and 7.38 billion HKD, reflecting a growth of 255%, 20.78%, and a decline of 11.01% respectively [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - Derlin International is positioned to benefit from the trend of popular toys, supported by a strong design and R&D team, with four design centers and approximately 150 designers [9] - The company’s ownership of factories in China and Vietnam provides a competitive edge in the context of supply chain diversification [9] - The report anticipates that as the demand for trendy toys increases, Derlin will continue to expand its capacity and seize more business opportunities [9]

Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges faced by the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing fluctuations and closing down 72 points or 0.29% [2][3] - The report indicates a decrease in net inflow from the Northbound trading, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion HKD, down 58.1% from the previous day [2] - The report discusses the performance of various sectors, noting that 7 out of 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices rose, while 8 fell, with the healthcare, telecommunications, essential consumer goods, and conglomerates showing slight increases [3] Company Analysis - The report focuses on Li Ning (2331.HK), noting that the running and fitness categories are leading growth, while retail channels remain under pressure due to weak consumer spending [5][6] - For Q2, the company reported low single-digit growth in overall platform revenue, with offline channels experiencing a decline, while e-commerce channels showed mid-single-digit growth [5] - The report mentions a decrease in the number of stores, with a total of 6,099 stores as of June 30, reflecting a net decrease of 18 stores since the beginning of the year [6] - The report highlights the signing of a new basketball ambassador, which is expected to boost the basketball category's growth [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Li Ning's strategy of "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" will continue to evolve, with a target price of 19.2 HKD based on a 20x PE for 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 19.2 for 2025, based on a 20x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit decline while e-commerce channels saw mid-single-digit growth [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the running and fitness categories, both achieving high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a decline of over 20% due to market conditions [2][3]. - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a net decrease of 18 stores year-to-date, and plans to expand new store layouts as per strategy [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: 2025E at RMB 28,698 million, 2026E at RMB 30,498 million, and 2027E at RMB 31,943 million, reflecting growth rates of 0.1%, 6.3%, and 4.7% respectively [5][12]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.88, with a decline in net profit expected to RMB 2,269 million, a decrease of 24.7% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 49.2% for 2025, with a slight increase to 49.5% by 2027 [5][13].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a continuous rise, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,590 points, up 386 points or 1.60% [2] - The trading volume in the main board increased significantly to HKD 288.4 billion, a rise of 37.1% compared to the previous day [2] - Northbound trading maintained a net inflow status, with a net inflow of HKD 3.824 billion, although this was a decrease of 53.6% from the previous day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices, 8 sectors rose while 4 fell, with consumer discretionary, healthcare, and information technology leading the gains, rising between 2.48% and 3.72% [3] - The sectors that experienced declines included energy, consumer staples, real estate, and industrials, with decreases ranging from 0.09% to 0.47% [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - 361 Degrees (1361.HK) - The company reported a robust performance in Q2 2025, with its main brand and children's clothing lines both achieving approximately 10% growth in offline sales, while e-commerce sales surged by about 20% [6] - The company continues to innovate with new product launches across various categories, including running shoes and basketball shoes, enhancing consumer choice [6] - 361 Degrees is actively expanding its superstore concept, with plans to increase the number of superstores from 49 to an estimated 80-100 by the end of the year, aiming for an annual store efficiency of nearly HKD 10 million [7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company has a strong focus on high cost-performance and functional product development, with a positive outlook on new store formats contributing to revenue growth [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at HKD 0.60, HKD 0.69, and HKD 0.76, with a target price of HKD 6.6 based on a 10x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience with a three-day upward trend, closing at 24,203 points, up 63 points or 0.3% [2] - The main board turnover was HKD 210.4 billion, a decrease of 35.1% from the previous day's high of HKD 324 billion [2] - Northbound trading maintained a net inflow status, with a significant increase of 372.7% in net inflow to HKD 8.243 billion [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The social financing data released by the People's Bank of China for the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with a total increase of CNY 22.8 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 26.2% [4] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 12.9 trillion, indicating reasonable growth in financial volume and a continuous decline in financing costs [4] - Despite strong overall data, some monthly credit data showed weakness, reflecting uncertainty in corporate expectations [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Tmall (6110.HK) - Tmall reported a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to HKD 27.01 billion, primarily due to weak offline consumption and reduced foot traffic [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 41.9% to HKD 1.29 billion, with the decline in profit outpacing revenue due to high fixed costs [6] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 135%, distributing a final dividend of HKD 0.02 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Tmall is optimizing its store structure, reducing the number of direct-operated stores by 18.3% to 5,020, while focusing on improving operational efficiency [7] - The company is expanding its brand partnerships, including collaborations with high-end running brands, to diversify its brand matrix [7] - Future performance is expected to improve as retail consumption conditions recover, with projected EPS for FY26/27/28 at HKD 0.21/0.22/0.23, and a target price of HKD 3.6 based on a 16x PE for FY26 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 361 Degrees with a target price of HKD 6.6 [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown robust growth in both offline and online sales, with the main brand and children's clothing lines achieving approximately 10% growth, while e-commerce platforms recorded about 20% growth [2][3]. - The introduction of new products across various categories, including running, basketball, and children's sportswear, reflects the company's commitment to innovation and consumer choice [2]. - The expansion of super stores is a strategic move to enhance consumer experience and drive sales, with plans to increase the number of super stores to 80-100 by the end of the year [3]. Financial Summary - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 0.60, 0.69, and 0.76 respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 8,423 million in 2023 to RMB 13,812 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.1% [4][9]. - The net profit is projected to increase from RMB 961 million in 2023 to RMB 1,579 million by 2027, with a net profit margin remaining stable around 11% [4][9].