Market Outlook - The political bureau meeting on December 9 signaled "moderately loose monetary policy" and "stabilizing the stock and real estate markets," which is expected to boost market confidence[1] - A-shares are anticipated to show a rotational upward trend, with a focus on consumer and financial sectors as they align with the economic cycle[1] - If policies are implemented and economic fundamentals recover beyond expectations, technology growth sectors may benefit from interest rate cuts and economic recovery[1] Equity Market Insights - In November, the A-share market experienced a rebound, with major indices such as the Wind Stock Index rising by 1.16% and the Wind Ordinary Stock Index increasing by 0.69%[34] - The small-cap and growth styles outperformed, with small-cap stocks gaining 2.49% and growth stocks up 0.96%, while value and large-cap styles declined by 0.98% and 0.55% respectively[38] - The "Guzi Economy" concept gained traction, with related sectors like retail and media performing well, while defense and household appliance sectors faced declines[40] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market showed steady recovery in November, with the 10-year government bond yield hitting a new low since September[34] - The LPR remained unchanged at 3.1% for one year and 3.6% for five years, indicating stable interest rates[45] - The bond market is expected to remain optimistic in the medium to long term, with risks of a bear market being low due to supportive fiscal policies[45] Fund Strategy Recommendations - For equity funds, a balanced approach is recommended, with a slight preference for growth sectors, particularly in technology and mergers and acquisitions[49] - Short-term pure bond funds are expected to provide stable returns with limited upward risk, while mid-term bonds may offer better value[57] - The solid return strategy for fixed income + funds focuses on stable income generation while allowing for some equity exposure, particularly in technology and healthcare sectors[70]

Group 1 - The report highlights mixed signals from the US non-farm payroll data, with stronger-than-expected job growth and wage increases, but a higher-than-expected unemployment rate, leading to expectations of a likely interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][14] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in China is anticipated to focus on policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, with market participants closely watching for any unexpected incremental policy announcements [1][14] - The A-share market showed increased trading activity with an average daily turnover of 17,246 billion yuan, up by 2,015 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating a rebound in market activity [1][34] Group 2 - The report notes that major financial sectors and non-white liquor consumption performed well, while there was a rotation in market themes, with some high-priced stocks weakening and low-priced stocks gaining strength [1][14] - The report suggests that the market may remain optimistic during the new round of policy negotiations, with a focus on large financials, non-white liquor consumption, and broad-based indices for potential trading opportunities [1][14] - If the upcoming policies do not exceed expectations, there may be a potential for a market adjustment, and investors are advised to consider reducing positions or increasing allocation to dividend strategies to hedge against volatility [1][14] Group 3 - The report indicates that the valuation percentiles of major A-share indices have generally increased, with more significant changes observed in the Shanghai 50 and Shanghai Composite Index, while the growth in the ChiNext index's valuation percentile was relatively small [1][17] - The A-share risk premium remains stable, currently below one standard deviation, while the price-to-earnings ratio of dividend stocks has improved, exceeding negative one standard deviation [1][24] - The report highlights that the turnover rates of broad-based indices have generally increased compared to the previous week, with notable rebounds in the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 indices [1][30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The recent regulation on non-bank interbank deposit pricing is expected to impact the yields of cash management products and money market funds, leading to lower returns for individual investors [1][14]. - The adjustment in non-bank interbank deposit rates aims to reduce banks' funding costs and alleviate the pressure on net interest margins, which could help lower financing costs further [19][1]. - The anticipated decline in yields for cash management products and money market funds is projected to bring their returns below 1.5% [21][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Non-Bank Interbank Deposit Pricing Regulation - On November 29, new regulations were introduced to optimize the self-regulation of non-bank interbank deposit rates, effective from December 1, 2024 [13]. - The regulations require non-financial infrastructure institutions to reference the 7-day reverse repo rate (1.5%) for interbank demand deposits [13]. - The regulations are expected to lead to a decrease in interbank demand deposit rates to 1.5% or lower, significantly affecting the yields of cash management products and money market funds [20][21]. 2. Cash Management Product Yields - As of December 1, 2024, the 7-day annualized yield for cash management products was 1.66%, unchanged from the previous week [22]. - The 7-day annualized yield for money market funds was 1.51%, also unchanged, with a yield gap of 15 basis points between the two products [22]. 3. Performance of Wealth Management Products - The one-month annualized yield for non-cash fixed-income wealth management products was 2.74%, an increase of 37 basis points from the previous week [27]. - The six-month annualized yield for closed-end fixed-income products was 3.36%, up by 6 basis points [27]. - The one-year annualized yield for closed-end fixed-income products was 3.83%, an increase of 28 basis points [27]. 4. Maturity and Compliance of Wealth Management Products - From November 25 to December 1, the scale of maturing wealth management products was 249.36 billion, with an average compliance rate of 68%, up by 9 percentage points from the previous week [32]. - Closed-end products showed a higher average compliance rate of 79%, outperforming the overall compliance rate [32].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The recent regulation on non-bank interbank deposit pricing is expected to impact the yields of cash management products and money market funds, leading to lower returns for individual investors [1][14]. - The adjustment in non-bank interbank deposit rates aims to reduce banks' funding costs and alleviate the downward pressure on net interest margins, which could help lower financing costs further [19][20]. - The anticipated decline in yields for cash management products and money market funds is projected to bring their returns below 1.5% [21]. Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Non-Bank Interbank Deposit Pricing Regulation - The regulation effective from December 1, 2024, aims to standardize non-bank interbank deposit rates, referencing the 7-day reverse repo rate of 1.5% for non-financial institutions [13]. - The regulation is expected to lead to a decrease in interbank deposit rates, which will directly affect the yields of cash management products and money market funds [14][20]. 2. Future Impact on Financial Product Yields - Cash management products and money market funds are expected to see significant yield reductions due to the new regulations, with interbank deposit rates anticipated to fall below 1.5% [20]. - The investment cap on certain types of deposits will be reduced, further contributing to lower product yields [20][21]. 3. Weekly Performance Review of Wealth Management Products - As of December 1, 2024, cash management products had a 7-day annualized yield of 1.66%, while money market funds had a yield of 1.51%, both remaining stable week-on-week [22]. - Non-cash fixed-income wealth management products showed a near 1-month annualized yield of 2.74%, an increase of 37 basis points from the previous week [27]. 4. Wealth Management Product Expiry and Compliance Rates - From November 25 to December 1, 2024, the total scale of expired wealth management products was 249.36 billion, with an average compliance rate of 68%, up by 9 percentage points from the previous week [32]. - Closed-end products exhibited a higher compliance rate of 79%, outperforming the overall compliance rate [32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [4] Core Viewpoints - The hydrogen energy market is expected to remain active due to increasing hydrogen production capacity and strong downstream demand [1][2] - The report highlights the growth in renewable hydrogen production projects, with a total capacity of 981.35 MW across 82 projects in October [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy implementation and investment activities in driving market expansion [2] Summary by Sections 1. Monthly Data Changes - In October, the mainstream prices for high-purity hydrogen (≥4N) in major markets were 2.7, 2.3, 1.94, 2.1, and 2.2 CNY/Nm3 for Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, Henan, and Hebei respectively [1] - The renewable hydrogen production capacity increased by 0.67% from the previous month, reaching 981 MW [11] 2. Monthly Data Trends - The number of built hydrogen refueling stations reached 518, covering 31 provinces and regions [1] - Fuel cell vehicle production saw a significant increase, with 491 units produced in October, up 204.97% month-on-month [11] 3. Policy Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a draft for a high-quality development action plan for the new energy storage manufacturing industry, aiming for significant advancements by 2027 [18] - Various regions, including Shanghai, Anhui, and Sichuan, have introduced hydrogen energy-related policies to support the industry [2][19] 4. Investment and Financing Events - Shudao Equipment and Toyota are collaborating to establish a joint venture focused on hydrogen fuel cell production and R&D [28] - National Hydrogen Technology Development Company announced a C-round financing to support its growth in the hydrogen energy sector [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The overall industry sentiment remains positive, with a focus on the upward trend in the upstream raw material prices, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations [2][3] - The domestic and international development prospects for the new energy vehicle industry are deemed certain, making the sector worthy of attention [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Data Tracking 1.1 Upstream Materials - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 74,900 CNY/ton, down 5.73% from the previous week, while battery-grade lithium carbonate averages 77,875 CNY/ton, down 4.94% [57][58] - The market price for single crystal ternary materials (523) is 107,100 CNY/ton, and for multi-crystal materials (622) is 106,700 CNY/ton, both showing a downward trend [71] - The average price for negative electrode materials remains stable at 33,000 CNY/ton, with sufficient market supply [80] - Electrolyte prices are stable, with phosphate lithium electrolyte averaging 18,600 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase [89] 1.2 Midstream Materials - Ternary material prices are declining, with the average price for high-nickel 811 multi-crystal materials at 142,500 CNY/ton [71] - The negative electrode material market shows stable prices, with a reference price of 32,378 CNY/ton [80] - Electrolyte production has slightly increased, with a total output of 33,570 tons, reflecting a 1.27% increase [92] 1.3 Downstream Battery Cells - The average price for square power cells (ternary) is 0.46 CNY/Wh, while phosphate lithium cells are at 0.37 CNY/Wh, both remaining stable [104] - In October 2024, the total production of power and other batteries reached 113.1 GWh, marking a 1.6% increase month-on-month and a 45.5% increase year-on-year [106] 2. Recent Events - Several listed automakers reported strong sales for November, with BYD's sales exceeding 500,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 67.92% [112] - CATL launched a new series of heavy-duty commercial vehicle batteries, achieving breakthroughs in various performance metrics [114]

2024 年 12 月 03 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 A 股回调企稳引回升，海外权益上行续新高 公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟踪周报（2024.12.01） 分析师：李亭函 分析师登记编码：S0890519080001 电话：021-20321017 邮箱：litinghan@cnhbstock.com 分析师：黄浩 分析师登记编码：S0890524110001 电话：021-20321391 021-20515355 2024/11/29》2024-12-02 2、《如何对抗震荡市？红利低波价值凸 显—公募基金周度热点》2024-11-28 3、《风险事件聚集引回调，关注震荡中 布局机会—公募基金工具化组合跟踪周 报（2024.11.24）》2024-11-26 4 、《 ETF 组 合 策 略 跟 踪 周 报 — 2024/11/22》2024-11-24 5、《权益市场回落调整，常青低波尽显 稳健优势—公募基金工具化组合跟踪周 报（2024.11.17）》2024-11-19 投资要点 本周 A 股在周初企稳后，下半周表现较为强势，中证全指本周收涨超 2%， 一方面因素来自于回调一定程度后的企 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [5] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a slight decline in supply and demand, with a focus on the pace of winter storage [1][4] - Steel production is expected to decrease slightly as the industry enters the off-season, although profitability remains supported [1][7] - Inventory levels have been decreasing for seven consecutive weeks, indicating a reduction in pressure on stock levels [2][4] Summary by Sections Supply - The average daily pig iron output for the week (sample size: 247) was 2.3387 million tons, a decrease of 19,300 tons or -0.82% from the previous week [1][27] - The total output of the five major steel products was 8.615 million tons, down 0.9% week-on-week [1][27] - The production of long products decreased by 2.32%, while plate production saw a marginal decline of 0.05% [1][27] Inventory - Total steel inventory (social + factory) was 11.7347 million tons, down 1.35% week-on-week and 10.35% year-on-year [2][27] - The inventory of long products and plates was 5.4168 million tons and 6.3179 million tons, with respective week-on-week changes of 0.2% and -2.6% [2][27] Consumption - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products totaled 8.7751 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% week-on-week [3][27] - Long product consumption decreased by 4.2%, while plate consumption increased by 1.4% [3][27] Prices and Profitability - The steel price index decreased slightly to 96.58 points, a drop of 0.5 points week-on-week [3][27] - The profitability rate of steel enterprises was 51.95%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous week [7][27] - The profit margins for rebar and hot-rolled products have expanded losses, while cold-rolled products saw a slight improvement in margins [7][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the market activity is decreasing, and a short-term continuation of volatility is expected [1][15] - The manufacturing PMI for China in November 2024 is reported at 50.3%, slightly up from 50.1% in the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.0%, down from 50.2% [1][13] - The new orders index has risen into the expansion zone for the first time since May, indicating improved demand due to a series of incremental policies [1][15] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market for the week of November 25-29 is reported at 15,230.85 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,833.54 billion yuan from the previous week, reflecting a continued decline in market trading sentiment [1][15] - The market recovery during the week was primarily driven by micro-cap and small-cap stocks, while large-cap and mid-cap stocks saw decreased trading activity [1][15] - Regulatory authorities are expected to propose specific quantitative requirements for the price-to-book ratio of relevant central enterprise listed companies [1][15] Group 3 - The report suggests a cautious approach in the short term, recommending a focus on defensive sectors with low volatility or areas with independent growth potential, such as AI applications, while advising to reduce positions ahead of new policy catalysts [1][15] - The report highlights that the current policy focus is primarily on debt reduction and real estate, with other policies, especially those aimed at expanding domestic demand, entering a waiting period [1][15] - Upcoming key events to watch include the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI on December 2 and the U.S. non-farm payroll changes and unemployment rate on December 6, which could influence overseas liquidity [1][42]

Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for November 2024 is 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month[1] - Non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.0%, slightly down from 50.2%[1] - The new orders index has risen into the expansion zone for the first time since May 2024, indicating improved demand[1] Market Performance - Average daily trading volume in A-shares for the week of November 25-29 is 15,230.85 billion CNY, a decrease of 1,833.54 billion CNY from the previous week[1] - Market activity is primarily driven by micro-cap and small-cap stocks, while large-cap and mid-cap stocks show decreased trading activity[1] Policy and Outlook - Regulatory authorities plan to set clear quantitative requirements for state-owned enterprises' price-to-book ratios[1] - Current policy focus is on debt reduction and real estate, with a waiting period for new demand expansion policies until the Central Economic Work Conference in early December[1] Investment Strategy - Short-term market is expected to continue a volatile trend; investors are advised to focus on defensive sectors with low volatility and independent growth areas like AI applications[1] - It is recommended to moderately reduce positions ahead of new policy catalysts[1]