Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $168.00 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was $4.84 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 29.6%, slightly below the consensus estimate of 31.2%. The adjusted EBITDA was $950 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $700 million. Management maintains a guidance of 20% growth in e-commerce GMV for 2025, with expectations of double-digit growth in active users and bookings in the gaming segment [1][5]. Summary by Sections E-commerce - E-commerce revenue grew by 28.3% year-over-year to $3.52 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of 30.3%. The adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $260 million, with an EBITDA margin of 7.5%, improving by 8.3 percentage points year-over-year. The order volume and GMV increased by 19% and 22%, respectively. Management is focused on enhancing service quality for sellers to drive more usage of advertising tools, with the number of participating sellers and average ad spend increasing by 22% and 28%, respectively [2]. Digital Payments - Digital payments revenue surged by 57.6% year-over-year to $790 million, outperforming the consensus estimate of 51.3%. The adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $240 million, up 62.4%, with an EBITDA margin of 30.7%. As of the end of Q1 2025, the loan balance for Monee was approximately $5.8 billion, with a non-performing loan ratio of about 1.1%, showing a decrease quarter-over-quarter. The brand name was changed from SeaMoney to Monee to reflect synergy with Shopee [3]. Gaming - Gaming revenue increased by 8.2% year-over-year to $500 million, below the consensus estimate of 15.0%, primarily due to deferred revenue. The adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $460 million, up 56.8%, with an EBITDA margin of 92.5%. The net bookings reached $780 million, a year-over-year increase of 51.4%. The active user count for Q1 2025 was 660 million, up 11.3%, with paying users at 64.6 million, a 32.1% increase [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been raised by 15.7%, 14.7%, and 13.2% to $3.52 billion, $4.53 billion, and $5.39 billion, respectively. The target price has been adjusted to $168.00 based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation model [5][30]. Financial Metrics - The projected revenue for 2025 is $20.89 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 24.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach $1.89 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 325.79% year-over-year. The EPS for 2025 is projected at $3.20, with a PE ratio of 48.23 [6][39].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, with target prices set at RMB 39.69 and HKD 21.31 respectively [8][13]. Core Views - The launch of the new Wei brand Gaoshan models, priced at RMB 309,800 and RMB 353,800, is expected to enhance market competitiveness due to improved features and a price advantage over competitors [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its transition to new energy vehicles, with expectations of improved profitability as new models gain traction in the market [1][3]. - The Gaoshan models are equipped with advanced features such as a high-performance hybrid system and an intelligent cockpit, which are anticipated to attract a significant number of sales, potentially exceeding 5,000 units per month [3][4]. Summary by Sections Product Launch and Features - The new Gaoshan models have a length of 5,280mm and 5,410mm, with the Gaoshan 8 being 235mm longer than its predecessor, aligning with mainstream market configurations [2]. - The new models feature a hybrid system with a fuel consumption rate of 7.15L per 100km and over 200km of pure electric range, enhancing their appeal for both commercial and family use [2][3]. Market Expansion - The company is set to open a factory in Brazil by mid-2025, which is expected to enhance its localization capabilities and strengthen its presence in the South American market [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 15.32 billion, RMB 18.57 billion, and RMB 20.13 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected revenue growth of 36.15% in 2025 [7][18]. - The estimated PE ratios for A-shares and H-shares are 22x and 11x respectively for 2025, reflecting a competitive valuation in the market [5][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $168.00 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was $4.84 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, slightly below the consensus estimate of 31.2% due to deferred gaming revenue and lower-than-expected e-commerce revenue [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $950 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $700 million, indicating a positive trend in profitability as scale effects become more apparent [1]. - The management maintains a guidance of 20% growth in e-commerce GMV for 2025, with expectations of double-digit growth in active users and bookings in the gaming segment [1]. E-commerce Segment - E-commerce revenue increased by 28.3% to $3.52 billion in Q1 2025, slightly below the consensus estimate of 30.3% [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the e-commerce segment was $260 million, with an EBITDA margin of 7.5%, improving by 8.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The number of e-commerce orders and GMV grew by 19% and 22% respectively, with management focusing on enhancing service quality to drive more merchants to use advertising tools [2]. Electronic Payment Segment - Electronic payment revenue surged by 57.6% to $790 million in Q1 2025, outperforming the consensus estimate of 51.3% [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $240 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 62.4%, with an EBITDA margin of 30.7% [3]. - The company rebranded its payment service from SeaMoney to Monee to highlight its synergy with e-commerce, with a loan balance of approximately $5.8 billion at the end of Q1 2025 [3]. Gaming Segment - Gaming revenue grew by 8.2% to $500 million in Q1 2025, below the consensus estimate of 15.0% due to significant deferred revenue [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the gaming segment was $460 million, with an EBITDA margin of 92.5% [4]. - The net bookings reached $780 million, up 51.4% year-on-year, with management confident in achieving double-digit growth in active users and bookings for 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 upwards by 15.7%, 14.7%, and 13.2% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected profit release from various business lines [5][27]. - The target price is set at $168.00 based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with the gaming segment valued at $38.8 per share, e-commerce at $104.0 per share, and electronic payments at $25.2 per share [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 614.34 HKD [6][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 increased by 13% year-on-year, exceeding consensus expectations by 2.5%. The adjusted net profit grew by 22% year-on-year, also surpassing expectations by 2.5% [1]. - The advertising revenue in Q1 grew by 20.2% year-on-year, significantly above consensus expectations, with a notable 60% increase in revenue from video accounts [2]. - Domestic game revenue rose by 24% year-on-year, with a strong pipeline of new games set to launch [3]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively, driven by the growth of the WeChat mini-store and AI product integration [4][31]. Revenue and Profitability - The projected revenue for 2025 is 735.52 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.4%. The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 262.69 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 17.95% [5][31]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 was reported at 55.8%, indicating a healthy profitability trend [12]. Business Segments - The value-added services segment, which includes gaming, saw a 17% increase in revenue, while the online advertising segment experienced a 20.2% growth [5][32]. - The WeChat mini-store has shown significant growth potential, with advertising consumption increasing nearly fourfold from February to April [2][13]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the continued expansion of its WeChat mini-store and the integration of AI capabilities, which are anticipated to enhance user engagement and drive revenue growth [4][18]. - The upcoming launch of new games, particularly the mobile version of "Valorant," is expected to attract a substantial user base and contribute to revenue growth [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies Jinbo Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [8][10] Core Viewpoints - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing a surge in activity, with multiple companies set to launch new products, indicating a strong focus on solid-state battery technology [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of electrolyte technology routes and lithium metal in the solid-state battery discussions, with sulfide halides being a focal point [2][3] - The solid-state battery industry is expected to see significant advancements, with semi-solid batteries anticipated for mass delivery by 2025 and full solid-state battery solutions accelerating in development [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The CIBF 2025 conference will feature solid-state batteries prominently, with a full-day forum dedicated to the topic, highlighting its significance in the industry [1] - The report notes that the second quarter of the year is particularly active for industry events, with several product launches related to solid-state batteries expected [2] Technology and Innovation - The report identifies key areas of focus within the solid-state battery technology, including silicon-based anodes, electrolyte membranes, and composite foils, which are expected to benefit from industry growth [3] - The report suggests that polymer solid-state batteries are more industry-friendly and have a higher maturity level, indicating a potential for rapid commercialization [3] Investment Opportunities - The report continues to recommend the solid-state battery supply chain, including halide/polymer solid-state electrolytes, lithium metal collectors, electrolyte membranes, and silicon-based anodes [4] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Jinbo Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., with target prices set at 28.20 and 53.72 respectively [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with revenue of 7.356 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and adjusted net profit of 2.226 billion RMB, up 22.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding consensus expectations [1][4]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to a robust increase in paid user numbers and a rapid rise in ARPPU driven by the growth of SVIP (super members) [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry, with strong integration capabilities and potential for profit margin expansion [1][4]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In Q1 2025, online music revenue grew by 15.9% to 5.8 billion RMB, with subscription revenue increasing by 16.6% to 4.22 billion RMB. The number of online paid users rose by 8.3% to 122.9 million [2]. - The ARPPU increased by 0.3 RMB to 11.4 RMB, benefiting from the growth of SVIP members and more cautious promotional activities [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.1%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, supported by the continuous growth of paid users and a decrease in the revenue-sharing ratio for live streaming [3]. - The report maintains the assumption of profit margin improvement for the full year, with an expected gross margin of 45% for 2025 [3]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 8.881 billion RMB, 10.192 billion RMB, and 11.159 billion RMB, reflecting increases of 2%, 7%, and 4% respectively [4][11]. - The target price is set at 19.47 USD or 77.37 HKD, based on a 25x PE for 2025E [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [8] Core Insights - Credit demand remains to be boosted, with government bonds continuing to support social financing [2][6] - April social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [2][4] - The report highlights the need for policy measures to stimulate credit demand and economic recovery [6] Summary by Sections Credit Demand and Financing - In April, new loans added were 280 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 764 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion yuan [3] - The stock of loans grew at a year-on-year rate of 7.2%, a slight decrease from the previous month [3] - Direct financing in April reached 1.25 trillion yuan, with government bond financing contributing significantly [4] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M1 and M2 growth rates were 1.5% and 8.0% respectively, showing a slight decline compared to the previous month [5] - Total deposits decreased by 440 billion yuan, with a notable drop in both household and non-financial enterprise deposits [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - China Merchants Bank (600036 CH) with a target price of 54.44 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Industrial Bank (601166 CH) with a target price of 25.60 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Bank of Communications (601328 CH) with a target price of 9.63 yuan and an "Overweight" rating [12] - Chengdu Bank (601838 CH) with a target price of 20.02 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Shanghai Bank (601229 CH) with a target price of 11.93 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12] - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK) with a target price of 7.55 yuan and a "Buy" rating [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [8] Core Viewpoints - The recent reduction in tariffs between the US and China is expected to significantly benefit sectors such as energy storage, photovoltaics, and AIDC, leading to profit recovery and valuation restoration [1][6] - The report recommends key companies including CATL, Sungrow, Canadian Solar, Megmeet, and Huaneng Electric [1][6] Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustments - The recent negotiations resulted in a larger-than-expected reduction in tariffs, with the effective tax rates for various segments calculated as follows: 1. Energy storage batteries/systems: 40.9% (expected to rise to 58.4% by 2026) 2. Lithium battery materials: 56%-60.8% 3. Inverters: 57.5% [2] Energy Storage Sector - High tariffs previously led to order cancellations and a slowdown in new orders for energy storage companies. The recent tariff reductions are expected to restore profitability for companies heavily exposed to the US market, with recommendations for Sungrow and CATL [3][6] Photovoltaic Sector - The impact of tariff adjustments on photovoltaic companies is deemed limited, as most domestic companies export through overseas bases. The adjustment is expected to improve market sentiment and support valuation recovery, particularly benefiting Canadian Solar due to its US production capacity [4][6] AIDC Sector - Concerns regarding reduced overseas demand due to high tariffs have diminished. The recent tariff cuts are expected to restore valuations for AIDC-related companies, with recommendations for Megmeet and Huaneng Electric [5][6] Company Recommendations - CATL: Expected to maintain a strong market position with a projected net profit of 66.62 billion CNY in 2025 [13] - Sungrow: Anticipated revenue growth of 7.76% in 2024, with a strong outlook for its energy storage business [13] - Canadian Solar: Despite a projected decline in net profit due to tariffs, its US production capacity is expected to mitigate some impacts [13] - Megmeet: Expected to benefit from its diversified layout and strong demand in data center products [13] - Huaneng Electric: Anticipated growth in its wind and energy storage segments, maintaining a positive outlook [14]

证券研究报告 银行 重视基金改革下银行配置新逻辑 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 14 日│中国内地 动态点评 我们认为公募改革落地有望驱动银行板块估值。证监会最近发布《推动公募 基金高质量发展行动方案》（简称"方案"），显著强化业绩比较基准约束力， 预计未来基金配置或向业绩基准靠拢。25Q1 主动权益深度欠配银行，较沪 深 300 偏离度近 10pct，改革驱动下或有较大增配空间。近期一揽子政策落 地，驱动经济修复，此外，被动基金持续扩容，险资加速入市，增量资金持 续流入可期，有望进一步支撑板块行情。个股推荐：1）25Q1 公募低配的 股份行：如招行 AH、兴业；2）稳健大行仍有配置价值，如农行 AH、交行 AH；3）质优个股，如成都、上海、渝农 AH、重庆 AH。 明确长期导向，强化基准约束 改革明确长周期业绩考核导向，强化业绩比较基准的约束作用，或驱动基金 产品增配此前低配的权重行业。方案提出，建立与基金业绩表现挂钩的浮动 管理费收取机制，同时强化业绩比较基准的约束作用，避免"风格漂移"等 问题。方案全面强化长周期考核与激励约束机制，在对基金经理的考核方面， 提出构建以 5 年以上长周期业绩为核心的评价 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Tariff Expectation Divergence and Correction" - Report Date: May 14, 2025 - Report Type: China Mainland Asset Allocation Weekly Report - Research Institution: Huatai Research [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The high - level Sino - US economic and trade talks have made substantial progress, with the overall tariff reduction exceeding market expectations. Different markets and assets are correcting their tariff expectations. In the short term, the stabilization of fundamental expectations and the repair of risk appetite drive major asset classes, and there are opportunities for previously oversold varieties to make up for losses. China and other non - US countries are back on the same starting line regarding reciprocal tariffs, and the relative value of Chinese assets may be repaired. In the long run, tariff prospects remain uncertain, and the global order reconstruction may continue. Key long - term themes include de - dollarization, diversified global capital allocation, RMB appreciation, and a decline in global aggregate demand. [2] - The short - term positive impact on the fundamentals is clear, but medium - term uncertainties remain. The risk appetite at home and abroad has recovered and is reflected in prices. Different assets have different implied expectations, which determine the repair space and potential trading opportunities. [3] Market Condition Assessment Domestic - The implementation of double cuts (interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts) and the easing of Sino - US tariffs improve the export and economic growth expectations for the second quarter. High - frequency data shows that the real estate market has cooled, while there are positive signals in consumption. The production performance is divided, and prices of some commodities are affected by supply - side factors. [4][46] - In terms of monetary policy, double cuts have been implemented, and a new round of deposit rate cuts is imminent. The central bank has launched a package of monetary policies. In terms of fiscal policy, the direction of loose money is confirmed, and more active fiscal policies are expected, but the urgency of fiscal stimulus has decreased after the tariff easing. [4][47] - Last week, real estate policies continued to boost demand, including lowering personal housing provident fund loan interest rates and introducing measures in Wuhan to support housing purchases. [48] Overseas - US economic data is mixed, and economic uncertainty is rising. After the Sino - US tariff easing, the probability of a US economic recession has decreased. The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and the inflation effect of tariffs is expected to appear in the next two months. [46] Asset - Specific Analysis Stocks - **A - shares**: The A - share market filled the gap last week but still lags behind some international stock indices. There is still value in domestic equity assets. The market shows structural differentiation, with defensive sectors outperforming in the early stage, and attention should be paid to the repair opportunities of technology - growth sectors and the export chain. [16][20] - **US stocks**: The US stock market may have over - reacted to the tariff shock. The technology - growth sectors are leading the rise in the short term, but the market may face risks such as policy chaos and a decline in corporate earnings in the long term. [22][44] Commodities - Commodities previously showed "recession trading" characteristics. With the improvement of demand expectations, there are trading opportunities for oversold commodities such as crude oil and black - series products. Gold may face short - term headwinds but remains a good hedge against tail risks in the long term. [24][45] Bonds - The global bond market has priced in a pessimistic economic outlook since April. After the tariff easing, bond yields may face upward pressure, but a trend reversal is unlikely. It is recommended to focus on short - term bonds and look for opportunities in long - term bonds during adjustments. [31][44] Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index has stabilized and rebounded, while the RMB is strong against the US dollar and may still have room to appreciate against a basket of currencies. [34] Configuration Suggestions - In general, the short - term impact of tariff easing on the market has been largely priced in. Most assets lack clear value - for - money and direction, and new variables are needed. [43] - **Domestic Bond Market**: The bond market may face short - term pressure, but the probability of hitting new lows is low. It is recommended to focus on medium - and short - term bonds with positive carry and look for opportunities to increase long - term bond holdings during adjustments. [43] - **Domestic Stock Market**: The negotiation results boost short - term risk appetite and second - quarter performance expectations, but a sustainable market trend is difficult to form. Focus on structural opportunities in sectors such as pan - technology and domestic substitution, and the export sector may recover. [43] - **US Bonds**: The probability of a US economic recession has decreased, and the odds of 10 - year US bonds have improved. However, they will face inflation and supply pressure in the next quarter. It is recommended to use short - term bonds as the bottom position and conduct long - term bond trading in a band - trading manner. [44] - **US Stocks**: The short - term market is optimistic, but the upward momentum may weaken after the release of tariff - easing benefits. In the long term, the US stock market may face risks such as a decline in corporate earnings. [44] - **Commodities**: Industrial commodities are better than gold in the short term. There are trading opportunities for previously fallen commodities, but the upside space is limited. Gold can hedge against tail risks and should be traded according to the trend. [45] Follow - up Concerns Domestic - China's April social消费品零售总额 year - on - year, April industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year, one - year loan prime rate as of May 20, monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities, and the press conference on national economic operation. [61] Overseas - US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10, April retail sales month - on - month, April PPI, May New York Fed manufacturing index, May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May one - year inflation expectation preliminary value, May University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value, Eurozone March seasonally adjusted trade balance, and April CPI annual rate final value. [61]