证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 3 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 积蓄力量，等待下行 [Table_Summary] 3 月 10-14 日，资金趋稳的利好信号开始反映在短端定价，但债市情 绪脆弱依然驱动长端利率上行，且利率波幅明显放大。14 日尾盘 2 月金融 数据发布，信贷结构反映需求正在弱化，但业内人士文章随之出炉，关于 降准降息的表述，都透露出当下落地的概率不大，债市对于"宽货币"的预 期阶段性退坡。 ► 降准降息，虽迟但大概率会到 如何看待短期降准降息落空，对债市的影响？我们倾向于，从希望到 失望，短期悲观情绪已经在 14 日尾盘释放。接下来是重新集聚力量的过 程，等待越来越多的高频数据揭示经济基本面的趋势。从当前信贷和经济 的高频数据来看，大行仍在票据市场收票，出口运价下跌，建筑复工偏 慢，工业品价格疲软，种种信号多指向基本面仍在筑底过程，需要呵护。 如果 3 月下旬信贷和经济高频数据依然偏弱，则降准降息预期可能卷 土重来。不过当下我们更应该关注，在央行态度偏呵护的背景下，3 月税 期及跨季，资金面是否保持平稳。降准的本质是补充银行的负债端，增强 资 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 11.6 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.61 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.64%, an increase of 0.70 percentage points [1] - In Q4 alone, total revenue reached 4.3 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 66% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 82% [1] - The company experienced a substantial increase in commission and fee income, which rose by 23% year-on-year, while net interest income increased by 7% [2] Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue structure for 2024 consisted of 40% from commission and fees, 16% from interest, 20% from operating income, and 22% from securities investment business [2] - The profit margin improved to 62.7%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a Q4 profit margin of 68%, up 13% year-on-year [9] Market Position - The company continued to enhance its market share in securities brokerage and financing, with a market share of 4.14% in stock trading, an increase of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The average daily trading amount for A-share stock funds was 1.2 trillion yuan, up 22% year-on-year [3] - The company’s net interest income from margin financing increased by 7% to 2.38 billion yuan, with a market share of 3.17% in margin financing [3] Fund Distribution and Recovery - The revenue from fund distribution, primarily from sales, decreased by 20% to 3.11 billion yuan, but showed a recovery in Q4 with a 6% year-on-year increase [4] - The sales of non-money market funds reached 1.0867 trillion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the fund market [4] Investment Returns - The company’s financial asset scale reached 85.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, although it decreased by 10% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The investment return rate was 3.91%, a significant increase year-on-year [8] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 to 12.45 billion yuan and 15.41 billion yuan, respectively, and introduced a new revenue forecast of 21.24 billion yuan for 2027 [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2026 have been revised to 0.79 yuan and 0.96 yuan, with a new EPS forecast of 1.11 yuan for 2027 [10]

本周 31 个申万一级行业中，美容护理、食品饮料等板块涨幅相 对居前，计算机、机械设备等板块跌幅相对较大。 证券研究报告|中小盘周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 3 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 亿航营收和交付量创新高，重点关注低空产业链机会；个股首推中简科技 [Table_Title2] ——中小盘周报 [Table_Summary] ►本周市场表现：A 股主要指数呈现下跌调整，美容护 理、食品饮料等板块涨幅居前 本周（指 3 月 10 日至 3 月 14 日，下同）上证指数（申万，下 同）收于 3,419.56 点，上涨 1.39%；深证成指收于 10978.30 点， 上涨 1.24%；创业板指收于 2226.72 点，上涨 0.97%。本周大盘指 数收于 3550.40 点，上涨 1.67%；小盘指数收于 4787.46 点，上涨 1.05%，小盘/大盘收盘指数比值为 1.35。 本周全 A 市场中,汉朔科技、永杰新材等 10 只股票涨幅居前，浩 淼科技、东方集团等 10 只股票跌幅居前。 ►海外视角：本周美股与港股三大指数均呈现下跌调整 本周（指 3 月 10 日至 3 月 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The construction materials industry is entering a peak season, with increasing downstream demand and effective implementation of staggered production, benefiting companies like Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Tapai Group [1][7] - The recovery of second-hand housing transactions and government initiatives to boost consumption are expected to drive demand for consumer building materials, recommending companies such as Sankeshu and Weixing New Materials [1][8] - The government's focus on low-altitude economy development presents opportunities for companies like Huase Group and Design Institute [1][8] - Major engineering projects, such as the Yarlung project, are anticipated to commence, benefiting companies like Zhongyan Dadi [1][9] - The domestic demand for automotive coatings is expected to grow due to strong domestic substitution demand, recommending companies like Songji Coatings [1][11] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the 11th week of 2025, new home transactions in 30 major cities showed a 2% year-on-year increase, with a total transaction area of 1,733.17 million square meters, up 11% year-on-year [2] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 monitored cities increased by 42% year-on-year, indicating a robust market [2] Cement Market - The national average cement price rose to 393.86 yuan/ton, a 1.6% increase from the previous week, with significant price hikes in East, Central, and Southwest regions [3][24] - The operating load of cement mills increased to 37.12%, reflecting a recovery in demand [32] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement for benefiting from rising cement prices [1][7] - Sankeshu and Weixing New Materials for their strong consumer building materials attributes [1][8] - Huase Group and Design Institute for low-altitude economy opportunities [1][8] - Zhongyan Dadi for potential orders from the Yarlung project [1][9] - Songji Coatings for growth in automotive coatings [1][11]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 上市公司破产重整迎新规；险资"长钱"入 市加速 [Table_Title2] 非银金融周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: 本周（2025. 3.9-2 025.3 .15）A 股日均交易额 16,55 7 亿 元，环比减少 2.7%，同比增加 6 7.7%。20 25 年一季度至今日 均成交额 15, 564 亿元,较 202 4 年一季度日均交易额增加 74.7%。投行：本周发行新股 5 家，募集资金 21 亿元。本周 上市新股 2 家，募集资金 2 2 亿元。2025 年至今，A 股 IPO 上 市 1 8 家，募集金额 111 亿元。2024 年，A 股 IPO 上市 100 家，募集金额 674 亿元。两融：截至 20 25 年 3 月 13 日，两 市两融余额 19,2 82.29 亿元，环比增加 0.39 %，较 202 4 年日 均水平增加 23.0 5%。两市融券余额 119.96 亿元，占两融比例 为 0 . 6 2%。 本周（2025. 3.9-2 025.3 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 行情高低切换，但主线依旧 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 交易线索：结构性行情边际切换 3 月 10 日-14 日，权益震荡走强，转债持续盘整。截至 2025 年 3 月 14 日，万得全 A 收盘价为 5341.08 元，较 3 月 7 日环 比上涨 1.49%；中证转债同期上涨 0.15%，估值有所回落。 本周权益市场的关键特征，是结构性较前期主线边际偏移。 近期科创品种的赚钱效应显著降低，交易难度偏大，导致观 望情绪逐渐发酵；而消费、红利和顺周期品种则成为畏高资 金的"落脚"选择，科创板块独树一帜的结构性行情有所调 和。不过综合国内外近期变化来看，结构性行情的边际切 换，可能为主线品种创造了加仓机会。 ► 海外方面，关税及衰退预期再度扰动市场 3 月 10-14 日，海外市场受特朗普关税政策以及衰退相关发言 影响，美股下跌、美债利率呈现震荡走势，黄金创新高。特 朗普上周末的发言引发市场对美国经济衰退的担忧，周一股 市大幅下跌，且国债利率下行。随 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 3 月 16 日 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.新能源汽车 中汽协公布 2 月新能源汽车产销数据 在以旧换新等政策的支持下，我国新能源汽车 2 月销量实现同 比大幅提升。我们认为，在新增优质供给增加和相关政策等因 素的推动下，国内电动化率持续深化，未来渗透率有望继续提 升，将带动全产业链需求增长。 2.新能源 产业链价格持续修复，光伏板块迎反弹契机 [Table_Title] HVDC 产业应用趋势增强，雷赛智能发布灵巧手解决 方案 短期视角来看，下游抢装带来短期装机需求超预期改善，叠加 部分产能收缩低价竞争有所缓解，二季度产业链价格中枢有望 持续上移，在市场高切低背景下，光伏板块存在反弹空间；中 长期来看，光伏行业发展进入成熟期，行业正通过技术迭代和 全球化布局构建新型竞争壁垒，关注具备技术领先优势、供应 链整合能力及全球化布局的龙头企业。 2025 年政府工作报告及六部门联合发布的《关于推动海洋 能规模化利用的指导意见》共同助推海风/海洋发展新机遇 我们持续看好国内 ...

Market Review - Global stock indices continued the "strong East, weak West" pattern, with US stocks declining due to concerns over Trump's tariff policies and economic recession, while A-shares rose, driven by the consumer and financial sectors, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3400-point mark on Friday [1] - In the primary sectors, beauty care, food and beverage, and coal sectors led the gains, while computer, machinery, and electronics sectors saw declines [1] - In commodities, concerns over US tariffs drove precious metal prices higher, with gold prices reaching a new historical high this week [1] Market Outlook - Large consumer spending is expected to receive policy support, with the current bull market likely transitioning from a technology-driven rally to a broad-based increase, benefiting from consumption policies and related resource sectors [2] - The focus is on domestic demand sectors benefiting from consumption policies and resource sectors related to price increases; the medium-term outlook remains positive for technology trends under the "new quality bull" asset line, particularly in AI applications, low-altitude economy, and domestic substitution [2] - The current bull market in Chinese technology stocks reflects confidence in the sector and is expected to improve consumer expectations, with the market likely transitioning from a technology theme to a broad-based rally [2] - The valuation of the Chinese technology index remains reasonable, with the AI+ industry trend expected to drive long-term growth; the current AI investment phase is shifting from overseas mapping to domestic industry chain investments, indicating a longer and broader market duration [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of humanoid robots, highlighting their rapid development and integration into national policies as a key area for future industrial growth [1][9][30] - The market size for humanoid robots is projected to grow significantly, reaching approximately 50 to 500 billion yuan by 2035, and potentially up to 10 trillion yuan by 2045 [1][16][27] - The report outlines the technological components of humanoid robots, including the "brain," "small brain," and "limbs," which are essential for their functionality and adaptability in various environments [13][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is recognized as a critical sector under national strategic development, with increasing mentions in government reports and policies [1][9][30] - The current market size for humanoid robots in China is estimated between 20 to 50 billion yuan [1][16] Market Projections - From 2028 to 2035, humanoid robots are expected to reach Level 2, focusing on specialized applications, with market size expanding to 50 to 500 billion yuan [1][16] - By 2040 to 2045, humanoid robots will achieve Level 4, with applications in both industrial and service sectors, leading to a market size of 5 to 10 trillion yuan [1][16] Technological Development - The report highlights the introduction of AgiBot World, a comprehensive dataset for humanoid robots, and the launch of the Genie Operator-1 model, which signifies advancements in general-purpose and intelligent capabilities [1][24][27] - The development of humanoid robots is supported by significant investments and technological breakthroughs, with a focus on integrating AI and advanced manufacturing techniques [1][32] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies in the cloud sector include Kingsoft Cloud, Yike Technology, and QCloud Technology [10] - In the AI agent and healthcare sectors, companies like RunDa Medical and MaiDi Technology are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [10] - The report also identifies key players in the humanoid robot space, such as Xiangxin Technology and Qin'an Co., as well as companies involved in the development of robot "brains" and integrated systems [10]

[Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：关税不确定性叠加美国财政赤字恶化，金 价突破 3000 美元/盎司 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 2.60%至 2,993.60 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 4.41%至 34.37 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上涨 2.28%至 694.96 元/克，SHFE 白银上涨 3.85%至 8,358.00 元/千 克。 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 3 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 关税不确定性叠加美国财政赤字恶化，金价创历 史新高 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 本周金银比下跌 1.73%至 87.11。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 388,223.12 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 增加 3,958,839.20 盎司。 周一，美国 2 月纽约联储 1 年通胀预期 3.13%，预期 3.1%，前值 3.00%。 周二，美国 2 月 NFIB 小型企业信心指数 100.7，预期 101，前值 102.8。美国 1 月 JOLTs 职位空缺 774 万人，预期 ...