Economic Overview - During the National Day holiday, over 1.4 billion people traveled, a 1.46% increase compared to 2023 and a 19.25% increase compared to 2019[1] - The manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8% in September, indicating initial signs of economic stabilization, although it remains below the expansion threshold[1] - Non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, with slight declines in service sector activity due to seasonal adjustments[1] Consumer Spending - National film box office revenue reached 1.706 billion yuan from October 1 to October 5, with an average daily revenue of approximately 341 million yuan, consistent with 2023 figures[1] - Travel consumption during the holiday showed significant growth, with a 27-fold increase in searches for "National Day travel" compared to last year[2] - In Beijing, monitored retail sectors achieved sales of 4.38 billion yuan, with foot traffic in key shopping areas increasing by 20.9% year-on-year[1] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales in 30 major cities during the holiday totaled 330,700 square meters, an 8% year-on-year decline, but the decrease is less severe than in September[3] - Government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to improve market expectations moving forward[3] International Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%[4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have converged, with a 97.44% probability of a 25 basis point cut in November[4] - The Brent crude oil price surged by 8.89% due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, impacting global oil supply dynamics[3] Market Performance - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 2.82% to 22,736.87 points, reaching a two-and-a-half-year high, driven by increased foreign investment[5] - A-share market activity surged, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 8.06% on the last trading day before the holiday, and total trading volume reaching nearly 2.6 trillion yuan, a historical high[6]

Market Performance - Global markets exhibited a "East rises, West falls" trend this week, with Hong Kong and Chinese concept stocks outperforming most developed markets[2] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices saw slight increases of 0.22%, 0.10%, and 0.09% respectively[11] - The Hang Seng Index surged by 10.20%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rose by 11.73% and 8.19% respectively[14] Valuation Insights - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a slight decline, with its P/E ratio rising to 50.1, indicating a high valuation level[12] - The current Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 stands at 36.94, significantly above historical averages[12] Economic Indicators - In September 2024, the Eurozone's CPI year-on-year growth rate was 1.8%, down from 2.2%[21] - The Eurozone's core CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.7%, also lower than the previous 2.8%[21] Sector Performance - Energy sector stocks in the U.S. rebounded significantly due to escalating Middle East tensions, while technology, biotech, and consumer sectors showed weakness[12] - In Hong Kong, the healthcare sector led gains with a 15.63% increase, while utilities had the smallest gain at 1.75%[15] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, slower-than-expected economic growth, and escalating global geopolitical risks[23]

Market Overview - Recent equity market has seen a significant reversal, reminiscent of the 2014-2015 bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3300 points before the National Day holiday[11] - The 2014-2015 bull market was characterized by a rise above 5000 points, driven by policy reforms and massive capital inflows[11] Macro Environment - Both the current market and the 2014-2015 period share similarities in active monetary and real estate policies, but the current market may require stronger policy measures to reverse expectations[3] - In 2014, the central bank initiated a series of interest rate cuts, while the current monetary policy is also supportive[3] - Fiscal policy remains a key uncertainty; the effectiveness and intensity of fiscal measures will likely determine the duration of the current market rally[3] Investor Behavior - There is a notable increase in retail investor sentiment, with both institutional and retail investors actively net buying[3] - The number of retail investor accounts reached 325 million by the end of 2022, indicating a potential for increased market participation[3] - The current level of margin financing is relatively low, suggesting room for growth in leverage among retail investors[3] Policy Implications - The upcoming National People's Congress in late October is a critical time for potential fiscal policy announcements, with expectations of over 2 trillion yuan in new fiscal measures to boost market confidence[3] - The support for ETFs and foreign capital inflows will be crucial for sustaining the current market momentum[6] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include geopolitical events, unexpected domestic economic downturns, and the effectiveness of fiscal policies[6] - The market's reliance on sentiment and capital flow means that any regulatory shifts could lead to significant volatility[6]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The internet finance sector is experiencing significant growth driven by supportive policies and improved fundamentals, with the market size exceeding 18.8 trillion RMB as of 2023, showing strong growth momentum [2][9][12] - The AI and SaaS integration is expected to drive a new wave of development in the cloud computing industry, with the SaaS market reaching 58.1 billion RMB in 2023, growing at a rate of 23.1% [3][10][22] Summary by Sections 1. Current Hot Topics - Policy support and fundamental improvements are providing long-term growth momentum for the internet finance sector, with multiple monetary policies released at the end of September directly benefiting this sector [2][9] - The integration of AI and SaaS is anticipated to reshape the cloud computing industry, with AI large models expected to drive significant advancements [3][10] 2. Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary stocks include: - Cyclical: Tonghuashun, Guiding Compass, Wealth Trend, New Guodu, New Dalu [5][25] - Cloud Computing: Glodon, Kingsoft Office, Mingyuan Cloud, Yonyou Network, Hehe Information, Weimeng Group [5][25] - Industry IT: Zhongkong Technology, Top Software, Focus Technology [5][25] - Xinchuang: Dameng Data, Nasda, China Software, China Great Wall [5][25] - Huawei: Softcom Power, Runhe Software, Rund Medical, Digital China, Huafeng Technology [5][25] - AI: iFlytek, Wanjun Technology, Caixun Co., Zhongke Shuguang, Kaile Shares [5][25] 3. Market Review - The computer sector has shown a significant increase, with the industry index rising by 13.24% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.76 percentage points [26][27] - The overall trading activity in the computer sector remains high, with 97.2% of stocks rising this week [29]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The electronic sector experienced a significant increase, with the overall index rising by 12.94% in the week ending September 30, 2024, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 8.48% [6][10] - The semiconductor sub-sector showed the highest growth within the electronic industry, with a rise of 15.46%, while the optical and optoelectronic sector had the weakest performance, increasing by 9.99% [8][10] - Global semiconductor sales reached $53.1 billion in August 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.6% compared to $44 billion in August 2023 [17][19] - The semiconductor market is witnessing a resurgence, with significant growth driven by demand in various regions, particularly in the Americas and China [19][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The electronic sector ranked 3rd in terms of performance among all industries, with a 10-year PE percentile of 65.90% [6][10] - The semiconductor sector's performance was notably strong, with all stocks in the sector closing higher, and some individual stocks, like Hongguang Semiconductor, seeing increases of over 310% during the trading session [14][16] Industry News Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a boom, with a notable increase in stock prices and market interest [14][16] - The global semiconductor sales data indicates a robust recovery, with significant growth in sales across various regions, particularly in the Americas and China [17][19] - The rise of Chinese MCU manufacturers is leading to increased competition and price wars in the market, reflecting a shift in the competitive landscape [25][26] Valuation Insights - As of September 30, 2024, the PE ratio for the electronic index was 49.74, with a 10-year PE percentile of 65.90%, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [10][21] - The semiconductor market is projected to grow significantly, with the global MCU market expected to reach $38.8 billion by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.5% [25][26]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [2] Core Insights - In August 2024, China's export value reached USD 308.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.70%, indicating a continuous expansion in export scale. The cumulative export value from January to August 2024 was USD 2,314.77 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 4.60% [6][9] - The furniture export sector remains weak, with August exports of furniture and parts valued at USD 4.84 billion, down 4.00% year-on-year. However, the decline is narrowing compared to previous months [6][10] - The U.S. housing market shows signs of slowing down, with new home sales in August at 716,000 units, up 9.8% year-on-year but down 4.7% month-on-month. Existing home sales also declined, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market due to interest rate cuts [14][16] - Retail market trends in the U.S. show a stable overall sentiment, with essential goods and personal care items performing well, while furniture and building materials saw slight declines [20][25] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of China's Export Data and Major Market Demand - August 2024 saw an expansion in export scale, with a cumulative year-on-year increase in exports. The furniture export sector is experiencing a narrowing decline [6][9] 2. U.S. Market Demand Tracking - The U.S. housing market is showing mixed signals, with new home sales increasing but existing home sales declining. Inventory levels are rising, suggesting a potential recovery in the housing market [14][16] 3. Detailed Export Data by Category - Exports of mattresses, thermos cups, toothbrushes, artificial turf, pet food, and decorative paper have shown significant recovery with expanding year-on-year growth. Conversely, exports of sofas, office furniture, PVC flooring, and plastic tableware have declined [27][31] 4. Investment Recommendations - Companies in the light industry sector are expected to capture more overseas market share due to their integrated global supply chains and strong management capabilities. Recommended companies include Haoyang Co., Yiyi Co., Zhizheng Technology, and Gongchuang Turf, among others [38]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is recommended [4][19][12] Core Views & Investment Suggestions - 109 game licenses were issued, and game sales revenue in August increased by 15% year-on-year. The National Press and Publication Administration approved 109 domestic online games in September 2024, bringing the total number of licenses issued in 2024 to 1,020, with 945 domestic games and 75 imported games [4][19][12] - The Chinese game market revenue reached 33.64 billion yuan in August, with a month-on-month growth of 21.01% and a year-on-year growth of 15.10%. The actual sales revenue of domestically developed games was 27.261 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 32.90% and a year-on-year increase of 8.35% [4][19][12] - The significant growth is attributed to the release of "Black Myth: Wukong," which has sold 20.4 million copies on Steam, generating over 978 million USD (approximately 6.89 billion yuan) in total revenue [4][19][12] - The report maintains a positive outlook for the upcoming National Day holiday, anticipating a recovery in cultural and entertainment consumption, a stable regulatory environment, and policy support for new consumption formats. Recommended stocks include Tencent, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and others [4][19][12] Industry Data - The SW Media Index rose by 15.94%, ranking 13th among 31 industries in terms of performance. The top three sub-industries were internet services, film, and advertising marketing, with increases of 41.42%, 19.28%, and 18.19%, respectively [3][12][4] - The top three films at the box office were "The Decision to Leave," "Wild Child," and "Transformers: Rise of the Beasts" [5][4] - The top three games on iOS were "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin," "Honor of Kings," and "Nirvana in Fire" [5][4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The report indicates a tight supply expectation for tin mines, coupled with recent inventory reductions in Shanghai tin, which may support tin prices [11] - Domestic lithium salt prices have seen a slight increase, but the market may face continued pressure [25] - Nickel prices have risen, but there is a significant increase in inventory levels [29] - Cobalt prices are fluctuating, with the market remaining weak [31] - Rare earth prices are showing a strong performance, with slight increases in prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides [34] Summary by Sections Lithium Industry Update - Domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices range from 71,500 to 73,500 CNY/ton, averaging 72,500 CNY/ton, up 1.4% from last week [25] - The total inventory of lithium carbonate as of September 26 is 124,600 tons, a decrease of 2,095 tons from September 19 [25] - The supply side remains stable, but downstream demand is cautious due to price increases [25][26] Nickel Industry Update - As of September 27, LME nickel prices are at 16,555 USD/ton, up 2.76% from September 20, with total inventory increasing by 4.97% [29] - Domestic nickel prices are also rising, but there are concerns about geopolitical risks affecting supply [29] Cobalt Industry Update - Electrolytic cobalt prices are at 173,000 CNY/ton, up 1.76% from September 20, while cobalt sulfate prices have decreased by 1.04% [31] - The overall market remains weak, with limited demand from the new energy vehicle sector [31][32] Rare Earth Industry Update - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have increased slightly, with praseodymium oxide averaging 429,800 CNY/ton, up 0.51% [34] - The supply side is tightening, and demand is expected to improve as orders are placed [34] Tin Industry Update - The average price of tin ingots in Shanghai is 257,500 CNY/ton, down 0.90% from September 20, but the supply side remains constrained [11][14] - Indonesian refined tin exports in August were 6,436.27 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.12% [11][14]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [2] Core Views - The report highlights a sustained positive sentiment in the domestic macroeconomic environment, which continues to catalyze opportunities in the industrial metals sector [2][12] - Precious metals are expected to reach new highs due to optimistic forecasts regarding interest rate cuts and soft landing expectations, supporting gold as a hedge against inflation [2][12][28] - Basic metals are experiencing a general price increase driven by improved macroeconomic sentiment, with copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead all showing significant price rises [4][12] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 1.27% to $2,680.8 per ounce, while silver rose by 1.33% to $31.92 per ounce [21] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 110,882.37 ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 12,771,245 ounces [21] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to rising safe-haven demand for gold, with multiple factors supporting the expectation of continued price increases [12][30] Basic Metals - Copper prices rose by 5.14% to $9,973.5 per ton on the LME, with aluminum up by 5.91% to $2,633.0 per ton, zinc up by 7.25% to $3,075.0 per ton, and lead up by 3.40% to $2,111.5 per ton [4] - Domestic policies aimed at stimulating the economy, including interest rate cuts and liquidity provisions, are expected to benefit the industrial metals sector [5][12] - The demand for copper is bolstered by the growth in the electric vehicle market, with a 63% year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in September [6][12] Aluminum - The aluminum market is seeing stable production levels, with demand improving as the "golden September and silver October" season approaches [7][12] - The average price of alumina increased by 1.72% to 4,081 yuan per ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices rose by 1.81% to 20,250 yuan per ton [7] Lead - Lead prices are rebounding due to tight supply conditions, with many smelters undergoing maintenance and production levels remaining low [8][12] - The inventory of lead on the SHFE decreased by 20,225 tons or 33.15% to 40,779 tons [8] Zinc - Zinc prices are supported by improving sentiment in the real estate sector, with ongoing tightness in zinc supply due to smelter maintenance [9][12] - The SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 5,456 tons or 6.37% to 80,156 tons [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The pork market outlook is weak, with prices continuing to decline. The average price of live pigs is 17.62 yuan/kg, down 4.64% week-on-week. Despite a seasonal increase in demand, market sentiment remains pessimistic due to falling prices and declining profits for pig farmers [1][35] - The planting industry chain is expected to improve due to the gradual commercialization of genetically modified seeds, which are anticipated to enhance productivity and pest resistance. Key beneficiaries include companies like Beidahuang and Su-Kang Agricultural Development [1][34] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on September 26, 2024, emphasizing the need for macroeconomic regulation and support for vulnerable groups, while ensuring food security and agricultural production [1][34] 2. Market Review - The agricultural sector index increased by 15.30% during the week of September 23-27, 2024. The sub-sectors with the highest gains were feed (+17.08%), livestock farming (+16.97%), and animal health (+15.51%) [1][37] 3. Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - **Corn**: The average price is 2275.84 yuan/ton, down 1.83% week-on-week [41] - **Wheat**: The average price is 2445.97 yuan/ton, down 0.72% week-on-week [44] - **Rice**: The average price for japonica rice is 3087.20 yuan/ton, down 0.16% week-on-week [47] - **Soybeans**: The average price is 4284.42 yuan/ton, down 2.08% week-on-week [50] - **Cotton**: The average price is 14920.00 yuan/ton, up 2.33% week-on-week [53] 4. Livestock Farming - The average price of live pigs is 17.89 yuan/kg, with a significant drop in profits for pig farmers. The profit for self-bred pigs is 368.14 yuan/head, down 20.58% week-on-week [35]