Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the computer industry is entering a valuation repair phase, with potential for a bull market similar to previous cycles since 2000. The report identifies three stages of a bull market: 1) Upward oscillation period, where individual stock fundamentals may not improve significantly; 2) Upward explosion period, where previous measures yield results and earnings valuations rise; 3) Bubble period, where retail funds accelerate entry despite the end of the profit acceleration phase [2][8][11]. - Historical analysis indicates that the computer sector has not led the market for over a decade, and current favorable policies may catalyze a new bull market, making the computer sector likely to perform well among various sectors [2][14][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Review of Bull Markets - The report reviews four bull markets since 2000, highlighting significant gains: 499.57% from June 2005 to October 2007, 98.94% from October 2008 to August 2009, 161.86% from February 2012 to June 2015, and 46.81% from January 2019 to December 2021 [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the arrival of a bull market is not necessarily linked to single variables like economic conditions or liquidity but often requires a combination of positive economic expectations and liquidity easing [8][14]. 2. Internet Finance and Other Computer Sectors - The internet finance sector has shown significant gains in previous bull markets, with notable increases in stock prices during the last two bull markets, such as a 3694.96% increase for Tonghuashun and 333.02% for Guiding Compass [3][9]. - As of Q2, the public fund holdings in the computer sector were 49.639 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in holdings, indicating a low allocation compared to other sectors [3][9]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Cyclical: Tonghuashun, Guiding Compass, Wealth Trend, New National Capital, New Continent - Cloud Computing: Glodon, Kingsoft Office, Mingyuan Cloud, Yonyou Network - Industry IT: Zhongkong Technology, Toptech Software, Focus Technology - Xinchuang: Dameng Data, Nasda, China Software, China Great Wall - Huawei: Softcom Power, Runhe Software, Runda Medical, Digital China, Huafeng Technology - AI: iFlytek, Wanjing Technology, Caixun Co., Zhongke Shuguang [4][10][22]. 4. Market Performance Overview - The computer sector experienced a significant increase, with a weekly growth of 17.74%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.04 percentage points [23][25]. - The report notes that 321 stocks in the sector saw 309 increase in value, indicating strong market activity [28][29]. 5. Valuation Situation - The current PE ratio for the SW computer industry is 53.17, which is below the historical average of 55.41, suggesting that the industry is undervalued compared to its historical performance [35].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is neutral [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the employment-first strategy by the State Council, emphasizing the development of vocational and technical education, which is expected to benefit companies like China Oriental Education [2][8] - China Oriental Education is recommended due to its strong employment outcomes and ability to adapt its programs to market needs, with a potential extension of its program duration to six years upon obtaining a technician college license [2][8] - The report notes that the stock price adjustment of China Oriental Education was primarily due to a decline in new enrollments despite exceeding profit expectations, but cost control measures are showing positive trends [2][8] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report discusses the recent policy from the Central Committee regarding the promotion of high-quality employment through vocational education, which includes the establishment of vocational education alliances and the selection of quality vocational schools [2][8] - It continues to recommend China Oriental Education as a key beneficiary of these policies, citing its ability to respond to market changes and its recovery in core business enrollment [2][8] Market Review - The report indicates that CITIC Education rose by 15.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 12.81% [10] - Year-to-date, CITIC Education has decreased by 24.35%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 3.78% [10] Company News - Transcend Education announced a share purchase agreement to acquire 51% of FIS Holdings Pte. Ltd. for 15.3 million Singapore dollars, which includes two subsidiaries focused on international education [2][8] - Kevin Education reported a share transfer agreement where a major shareholder transferred 14.84% of its shares at a price of 3.69 yuan per share [2][8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends China Oriental Education as a turnaround opportunity in vocational education [9] - It suggests that K12 education and degree education are relatively stable investment directions, with continued growth in summer enrollment [9] - Other recommended companies include Xueda Education, Kede Education, and Sikaole Education, among others [9]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the textile and apparel industry, particularly highlighting the potential for market confidence to be boosted by the recent stock issuance by Baoxiniang [2][38]. Core Insights - Baoxiniang plans to issue up to 285,714,285 shares at a price of 2.80 CNY per share, raising a total of up to 800 million CNY, aimed at replenishing working capital and repaying bank loans. This move is seen as a significant bottom-up investment by the major shareholder, which could enhance market confidence [2][38]. - The report notes that the decline in Baoxiniang's stock price was primarily due to weak consumer confidence affecting the HAZZYS brand and high comparative figures from the previous year in the formal wear segment. However, the growth potential for HAZZYS remains to be seen as the market adjusts [2][38]. - The report forecasts a continued weak performance in the apparel sector for Q3, with recommendations for companies showing improvement in their performance, such as Senma Clothing and Jiama Clothing [2][38]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.81%, while the textile and apparel sector increased by 13.51%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 0.70% [39]. - The textile manufacturing sector rose by 8.30%, and the apparel and home textile sector increased by 17.98% [39]. Raw Material Data - As of September 27, the China Cotton 3128B Index was 15,281 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.02% increase. However, it has decreased by 7.17% since the beginning of the year [47]. - The average price of Australian wool has decreased by 7.26% year-to-date, with the current index at 1,124 AUD/ton [51]. Export Data - From January to August 2024, textile and apparel exports totaled 196.125 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 2.03%. In August alone, exports were 27.951 billion USD, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.32% [63]. - The export of oilcloth, tarpaulins, and sunshades for the same period reached 2.843 billion USD, with a year-on-year increase of 1.54% [66]. Consumer Trends - On the Douyin platform, sales in the sports category saw significant growth, with sports bags, shoes, and clothing increasing by 113.5%, 59.2%, and 57.9% respectively in August [68]. - On Taobao and Tmall, children's clothing experienced the highest growth rate at 82.7%, while men's clothing saw a decline of 28.0% [72].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at 2.80 CNY per share, which is expected to boost market confidence [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the major shareholder's full subscription of the private placement at a low point is significant, mirroring a similar event in May 2021, which is likely to enhance market confidence [2]. - The company's stock price decline is attributed to several factors, including the performance of the HAZZYS brand, which has not shown significant growth due to low consumer confidence and weather impacts on foot traffic [2]. - Future growth potential remains, particularly for the HAZZYS brand, which is expected to recover and achieve double-digit growth after the current year's challenges are addressed [3]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company plans to issue up to 285,714,285 shares to specific investors, with the controlling shareholder, Mr. Wu Zhize, subscribing to all shares for a total of up to 800 million CNY, aimed at replenishing working capital and repaying bank loans [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are set at 5.5 billion CNY, 6.4 billion CNY, and 7.4 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 677 million CNY, 797 million CNY, and 955 million CNY [5][8]. - The report anticipates a gross margin improvement from 64.7% in 2023 to 66.1% by 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6][8]. Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.46 CNY, 0.55 CNY, and 0.65 CNY respectively, with the current closing price of 3.98 CNY corresponding to a PE ratio of 9, 7, and 6 for the respective years [3][6].

Liquidity Overview - The recent reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates has led to a significant easing of liquidity, with the banking system's net outflow recovering to over 4 trillion yuan[1] - From September 23 to 27, the banking system's net outflow increased from 2.7 trillion yuan to over 4 trillion yuan, indicating improved market expectations for future liquidity[1] - The one-year deposit certificate rate fell from 1.94% to 1.87%, although it rebounded to 1.91% due to market sentiment[1] Government Debt and Fiscal Impact - The net payment for government bonds from September 30 to October 12 is projected to drop significantly to 1,630 billion yuan, down from over 8,275 billion yuan the previous week[2] - The expected government bond issuance during this period is 1,507.1 billion yuan, with no issuance of national bonds[2] Interbank Market Dynamics - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 413 billion yuan from September 23 to 29, with reverse repos totaling 14,611 billion yuan and maturing repos at 18,024 billion yuan[2] - The interbank lending rates showed a downward trend, with the overnight SHIBOR averaging 1.67% and the 7-day rate at 1.83%[2] Commercial Paper Market - From September 23 to 27, commercial paper rates increased, with 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month rates rising by 19bp, 11bp, and 6bp to 1.69%, 1.51%, and 0.98% respectively[2] - Major banks shifted to a net selling position in commercial paper, selling 273 billion yuan during this period, contrasting with a net purchase of 1,060 billion yuan in September last year[2] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The net financing of interbank certificates of deposit turned positive, with a net financing of 1,229 billion yuan from September 23 to 29[2] - The weighted average issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit decreased to 1.93%, down 1bp from the previous week[2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The implementation of the old-for-new policy has significantly boosted retail sales, with over 243 billion yuan in sales driven by the policy from March to August 2024, accounting for approximately 5% of the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment during this period [2][17] - The policy has led to a notable increase in sales across various regions, particularly in provinces that implemented the subsidy details earlier, such as Hubei and Zhejiang, showing strong performance in categories like air conditioners and range hoods [2][20] Summary by Sections Policy Analysis - In August, various local governments launched detailed old-for-new subsidy policies, enhancing product categories and payment convenience. Over half of the provinces completed the detailed policy rollout by August, with 20 regions including additional products like dryers and smart toilets in the subsidy scope [14][19] - The subsidy method adopted in 23 regions is a direct discount model, allowing consumers to enjoy immediate benefits [14] Regional Performance - The immediate impact of the policy rollout was evident, with significant sales increases in regions like Beijing and Guangdong, where the policy led to sales of over 145 million units and 37 billion yuan in sales [19][20] - Provinces such as Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Sichuan showed sustained strong performance in sales across various appliance categories [20] Product Category Insights - Most subsidized product categories saw a turnaround from negative to positive growth, with air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, range hoods, and televisions showing year-on-year sales growth rates of 72%, 44%, 39%, 66%, and 32% respectively [2][4] - The average price of air conditioners has shown an upward trend due to the subsidy policy, which is expected to continue driving product upgrades [2][4] Brand Performance - Leading offline brands such as Midea and Gree have seen significant sales growth, with Midea's offline sales increasing by 57% and online sales by 110% during the specified period [4] - Xiaomi has maintained a strong performance online, being the only brand to achieve both volume and price increases [4] Channel Analysis - There is a high degree of synchronization between online and offline channels, with major platforms like JD.com aligning their old-for-new policies with local subsidy initiatives [5] Production Insights - Air conditioner production is expected to accelerate in Q4, driven by ongoing promotions and inventory clearance efforts, indicating a positive outlook for domestic sales [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on white goods companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense, as well as black goods companies like TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual, along with component suppliers [7]

Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - On September 26, the Central Political Bureau meeting boosted market risk appetite, leading to a 3.61% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, surpassing 3000 points[2] - Bond market yields surged, with 7-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields rising by 8.0bp, 6.8bp, and 8.5bp to 1.96%, 2.10%, and 2.24% respectively[2] - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yield pricing ranges are estimated at 1.97%-2.10% and 2.16%-2.30% respectively, indicating that the 10-year yield is near the upper limit of its range[2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Implications - Concerns over incremental fiscal policy adjustments have led to significant bond market adjustments, with potential fiscal tools including unused government bond quotas totaling 828.285 billion yuan[3] - Three scenarios for government bond issuance are proposed: no issuance, 1 trillion yuan issuance, and 2 trillion yuan issuance, with net issuance estimates of approximately 1.3 trillion, 2.3 trillion, and 3.3 trillion yuan respectively for Q4[3] - If 1-2 trillion yuan of government bonds are issued, the direct effect on GDP could be an increase of approximately 0.8%-1.6%[4] Group 3: Market Adjustments and Risks - The bond market may face a "composite pressure" from both equity market rebounds and fiscal policy expectations, with potential yield increases of around 15bp for 10-year and 30-year bonds[6] - Historical data shows that in Q4 2022, a 1 trillion yuan bond issuance led to yield increases of 66bp for 1-year bonds and 18bp for 10-year bonds, indicating sensitivity to supply pressures[6] - The current bond market adjustment has not yet triggered negative feedback effects in the credit sector, but future monitoring of interest rate and credit linkages is necessary[7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The period from 1980 to 1991 saw the gold price maintain a low and narrow fluctuation range, influenced by various economic events and policies [5][8]. - The copper market experienced a significant decline in prices due to high inflation and economic stagnation, followed by a recovery in 1987 driven by reduced consumer inventories and strong demand [6]. - Aluminum prices fluctuated due to global economic conditions, with a notable increase in 1987 followed by a downturn as supply outpaced demand [6]. - Silver prices faced downward pressure from high interest rates and a strong dollar, with limited recovery despite stable supply and moderate demand growth [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Events Influencing Gold Prices (1980-1991) - In January 1980, gold prices peaked at $850 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and high inflation [9]. - The implementation of strict monetary policies by the U.S. led to rising interest rates and a subsequent decline in gold demand [5][14]. 2. Price Review of Copper, Aluminum, and Silver - Copper prices fell sharply in the early 1980s due to economic recession and oversupply, but rebounded in 1987 [6]. - Aluminum faced a similar trajectory, with prices rising in 1987 before declining again due to increased production [6]. - Silver prices dropped significantly in the early 1980s, with limited recovery due to high interest rates and a strong dollar [6]. 3. Economic Indicators and Gold Prices - The U.S. GDP growth rate fluctuated significantly during this period, with notable peaks and troughs impacting gold prices [14][15]. - The unemployment rate reached a peak of nearly 11% in 1982, influencing consumer behavior and gold demand [14][15]. 4. Trade Deficits and Economic Conditions - The U.S. trade deficit expanded significantly during the early 1980s due to economic weakness and a strong dollar, before contracting in the early 1990s [27]. - Fiscal deficits increased during this period, peaking at $2687 billion in 1991, driven by recession and increased defense spending [30].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Great Wall Motors to "Buy" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The trend of vehicle replacement is evident, with high-priced models expected to exceed 10 million units, indicating a broader demand for high-priced vehicles. The proportion of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan is continuously increasing, supported by rising disposable income and shorter replacement cycles due to the advent of smart electric vehicles [2][19]. - The Wei brand is positioned as a key player in the family large space segment, with the new model "Blue Mountain" expected to significantly boost sales after addressing previous shortcomings in intelligence and distribution channels [2][39]. - The Tank brand is set to dominate the professional off-road segment, leveraging technology to create a competitive edge. The off-road SUV market is projected to capture 10% of the sales of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan, with the Tank brand benefiting from this growth [2][39]. - Focusing on high-priced vehicles is expected to yield significant results, as there is ample opportunity in the mass market. The strategy to prioritize high-priced segments will help reduce internal competition while enhancing brand image [2][39]. Summary by Sections Vehicle Replacement Trends - The replacement ratio has exceeded 50%, driving an increase in average transaction prices in the automotive market. The average price of passenger vehicles has risen from 168,900 yuan in 2016 to 227,700 yuan in early 2024, reflecting a core trend of consumption upgrading [7][9]. - The theoretical demand for vehicle replacement from 2019 to 2023 is estimated at 97.72 million units, with actual replacement sales at 42.3 million units, indicating a backlog of over 55.42 million units [13][19]. Wei Brand and Blue Mountain Model - The old Blue Mountain model maintained a stable monthly sales volume of around 2,000 units, while the new model received 8,571 pre-orders within 24 hours of its launch [28][39]. - The new Blue Mountain features significant upgrades in comfort and technology, including a self-developed cockpit platform and high-end amenities [32][33]. Tank Brand and Off-Road Segment - The Tank brand is positioned as the leading brand in the high-value off-road market, with a strong focus on technology to enhance its competitive advantage [2][39]. Market Potential and Strategy - The report emphasizes the vast potential in the mass market, with a strategic focus on high-priced vehicles expected to yield better profitability and reduced competition among domestic brands [2][39].

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 09 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 券商风控指标计算标准新规点评：评级优异券商杠杆上限进一步打 开，重点业务风险加强防范 [Table_Title2] 证券Ⅱ 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 2024 年 9 月 20 日，证监会正式发布修订后的《证券公司风险控制指标计算标准规定》（后称新规），新规将于 2025 年 1 月 1 日起正式施行。 背景及导向： 2016 年，中国证监会修订发布了《证券公司风险控制指标管理办法》及配套风控指标计算标准。对于《证券公 司风险控制指标计算标准规定》，2020 年第一次修订，2024 年第二次修订。 新规体现四方面监管导向：1）全面覆盖：对券商所有业务活动纳入风控指标约束范围，提升指标体系的完备 性；2）审慎从严：针对创新业务和风险较高的业务从严设置风控指标计算标准；3）强化风险管理：根据券商 风管水平、业务风险特征和期现匹配性，合理完善计算标准，提高指标体系科学性、有效性；4）促进功能发 挥：引导券商优化业务结构和资产配置，加大实体经济服务和居民财富管理力度， ...