证券研究报告|行业动态报告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 10 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 保险 2024 年三季报前瞻：资负共振，业绩有 望显著改善 [Table_Title2] 保险 II [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ► 人身险：2024Q3 新业务价值增长有望提速。 各上市险企以价补量推动 2024H1 新业务价值超预期增 长。2024H1 各上市险企 NBV 均延续双位数增长，同比增速分 别为中国人保（+91.0%）>新华保险（+57.7%）>中国太保 （+22.8%）>中国人寿（+18.6%）>中国平安（+11.0%）。量价 拆分来看，虽然新单保费有所下滑，其中，中国人寿新单保费 同比-6.4%，中国平安用来计算新业务价值的首年保费同比19.0%，中国太保首年年化保费同比-11.9%，中国人保长险首 年保费同比-20.4%，新华保险长险首年保费同比-45.1%。但各 险企新业务价值率均迎来大幅改善，其中，新华保险同比 +13.7pt，中国人保同比+6.9pt，中国平安同比+6.5pt，中国 太保同比+5.3pt，中国人寿同比+4.2pt。这主要受益于预定利 率 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing strong performance from domestic manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, Changan, and Chery, with significant growth in overall sales and new energy vehicle (NEV) sales [2][10] - The NEV penetration rate reached a record high of 48.4% in August 2024, indicating a continuous upward trend [2][10] - The influx of major players like Volkswagen into the NEV market is expected to further boost penetration rates, benefiting domestic manufacturers [2][10] Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - From January to August 2024, cumulative passenger vehicle sales reached 16.15 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. NEV sales during the same period totaled 6.71 million units, growing by 30.7% [3][11] - The NEV penetration rate for passenger vehicles was 41.5%, up by 8.7 percentage points year-on-year, with monthly rates showing consistent growth [3][11] - The top 10 retail sales for passenger vehicles accounted for 60.4% of the market share, with significant growth from BYD (+27.8%), Geely (+26.6%), Chery (+65.5%), and SAIC-GM-Wuling (+2.3%) [3][11] - In the NEV segment, the top 10 manufacturers accounted for 78.3% of the market share, with notable growth from manufacturers like Seres (+659.4%) and Chery (+213.1%) [3][11] Commercial Vehicles - Cumulative commercial vehicle sales from January to August 2024 reached 2.61 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [5][20] - Bus sales increased by 10.9%, while truck sales saw a modest growth of 0.4% during the same period [5][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall demand in the automotive industry will remain strong, driven by domestic consumption upgrades and the supply-side shift towards smart electrification [6] - Beneficiary stocks in the complete vehicle segment include Li Auto, Great Wall Motors, Changan, Geely, BYD, Xpeng, Seres, NIO, GAC Group, and SAIC Group [6] - In the auto parts sector, domestic companies are expected to benefit from cost advantages and opportunities in domestic replacement and exports, particularly in high-end components [6]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 882 [Table_Title] 纺织服饰 24Q3 前瞻 [Table_Date] 2024 年 10 月 10 日 ——推荐高景气及环比改善个股 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Viewpoints - The pig price continues to rise, benefiting the entire agricultural sector, with significant profit expansion in the breeding industry chain [2][10] - The breeding industry has turned profitable in Q3, with substantial profits expected to continue [11][17] - The planting industry is experiencing weak fluctuations in grain prices, but the supply-demand structure is expected to improve [14][15] Summary by Sections 1. Breeding Industry Chain: Q3 Pig Price Continues to Rise, Profits Expand - Pig prices for Q1/Q2/Q3 of 2024 were 14.44/16.29/19.38 yuan/kg, showing year-on-year changes of -3.86%/+13.02%/+21.49% and month-on-month changes of +1.48%/+12.77%/+19.01% [2][10] - The price of pigs reached a peak of 21.19 yuan/kg on August 15, 2024, before slightly declining, but remained above the cost line [2][11] - The breeding industry has turned from loss to profit, with significant profit margins for self-breeding and purchased pig breeding, with profit increases of +357.21% and +74.24% respectively in Q3 [11][17] 2. Planting Industry Chain: Weak Fluctuations in Grain Prices, Supply-Demand Structure Expected to Improve - Corn prices have shown a downward trend, with Q1/Q2/Q3 prices at 2459.56/2433.29/2400.73 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of -15.40%/-12.86%/-16.98% [14] - Wheat prices have also decreased, with a current average of 2485.62 yuan/ton in Q3, down 14.35% year-on-year [14][15] - Soybean prices have been declining, with Q1/Q2/Q3 averages of 4677.81/4382.20/4422.56 yuan/ton, showing year-on-year changes of +11.71%/-11.46%/-9.65% [14][15] 3. Beneficiaries of the Price Recovery - The feed sector is expected to benefit from lower raw material prices and improved profitability in the breeding sector, with leading companies like Haida Group and New Hope poised to gain [17][18] - The veterinary medicine sector is also expected to see improved performance due to increased demand for veterinary products as breeding profitability rises, with companies like Jinhai Biological and Zhongmu Co. likely to benefit [17][18] - In the pig breeding sector, companies such as Jingji Zhino, Muyuan, and Wens Foodstuffs are recommended for their strong financial positions and cost control [17][18]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the consumption service industry, particularly in the film, gaming, and internet sectors, driven by government policies aimed at boosting market confidence and liquidity [2][4] - The film industry is experiencing a revival, supported by government initiatives such as the issuance of movie consumption vouchers, which have stimulated both cinema attendance and surrounding commercial activities [3][21] - The gaming industry is entering a new phase of cultural export, with successful titles like "Black Myth: Wukong" marking significant achievements in both domestic and international markets [30][31] - The internet sector is playing a crucial role in enhancing consumer spending and employment, leveraging diverse platforms to stimulate economic recovery [33] Summary by Sections Film Industry - The film market has shown continuous recovery in 2024, with significant box office performances, including over 20 billion yuan during the National Day holiday [3][21] - Government policies, such as the issuance of consumption vouchers, are expected to further enhance cinema-related spending and drive growth in surrounding commercial areas [3][18] - The report highlights the importance of non-ticket revenue streams, with non-box office business margins exceeding 60%, indicating potential for profit growth [9] Gaming Industry - The gaming sector is a key driver of consumer spending, with August 2024 revenues reaching 33.64 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.01% month-on-month increase [26] - The industry is also fostering technological advancements, particularly in hardware performance and AI applications, which are essential for enhancing gaming experiences [28][29] - The report identifies key beneficiaries in the gaming sector, including 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World, which are expected to capitalize on the growing market [31] Internet Industry - Internet companies are effectively stimulating consumer activity through diverse platforms, enhancing decision-making efficiency, and responding to government consumption policies [33] - The sector has created approximately 240 million jobs, significantly contributing to employment stability and the rise of new professions [33] - Major players like Tencent and Meituan are positioned to benefit from improved market conditions and policy support, with expectations of valuation recovery and performance enhancement [34]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - Kamoa-Kakula produced a record 116,300 tons of copper concentrate in Q3 2024, with year-to-date production reaching 303,300 tons [1] - The production guidance for Kamoa-Kakula has been adjusted to 425,000 - 450,000 tons of copper concentrate for 2024, down from the previous guidance of 440,000 - 490,000 tons [2][4] - The third phase of the Kamoa-Kakula processing plant achieved commercial production, producing 22,099 tons of copper concentrate with a recovery rate of 79.9% [1] - Kipushi produced 17,800 tons of zinc concentrate during Q3 2024, with an annual steady-state production capacity expected to exceed 250,000 tons [2] Production and Operational Performance - Kamoa-Kakula's first and second phase processing plants milled approximately 2.2 million tons of ore in Q3, with an average copper grade of 4.9% and a quarterly copper output of 94,214 tons at an average recovery rate of 86.6% [1] - The third phase processing plant milled about 1.1 million tons of ore in Q3, with an average copper grade of 2.6% [1] - The total backup power capacity on-site is 135 MW, with an additional 72 MW of generators installed and commissioned during the quarter [1] - Negotiations are ongoing to increase imported power from the Southern African Power Pool to over 100 MW by year-end [1] Adjustments in Production Guidance - The production guidance for Kipushi's zinc concentrate has been revised down to 50,000 - 70,000 tons for 2024, previously set at 100,000 - 140,000 tons [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company has reported a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with an expected range of CNY 18.607 billion to CNY 20.515 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 95% to 115% [2][3] - The increase in performance is attributed to a rise in investment in equity assets and improved management of insurance liabilities, alongside a recovery in the capital market [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the current stock market recovery, with its equity sensitivity being notably high compared to other insurance companies [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company anticipates a net profit of CNY 75.24 billion to CNY 94.32 billion for Q3 2024, marking a turnaround from losses in the same period of 2023, with an increase of CNY 79.60 billion to CNY 98.68 billion year-on-year [2][3] Investment Strategy - The company has increased its allocation to equity assets, which has positively impacted its investment returns, especially with the recent market upturn where the CSI 300 index rose by 15% in Q3 2024 compared to a 5% decline in Q3 2023 [3] Financial Projections - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been raised to CNY 90.828 billion from a previous estimate of CNY 82.7 billion, with net profit projections adjusted to CNY 20 billion from CNY 12.3 billion [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is now CNY 6.40, up from CNY 3.95 [5] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings value (PEV) for 2024 is projected at 0.55, with estimates for 2025 and 2026 at 0.54 and 0.51 respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5]

Market Performance - During the National Day holiday, Chinese assets outperformed global markets, with the FTSE China A50 futures, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 14.32%, 11.35%, 9.30%, and 13.36% respectively from October 1 to 7[2] - The Hang Seng AH premium index narrowed from 148 before the holiday to 128[2] Foreign Capital Inflow - After several months of outflows, passive foreign capital began to flow back into the Hong Kong stock market, with a net inflow of $3.681 billion from September 19 to October 2[2] - Active foreign capital also turned to inflow, with a net inflow of $124 million from September 26 to October 2[2] Valuation Analysis - As of the latest data, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index are 18.45 and 10.28 respectively, indicating a recovery above the median since 2010[2] - However, A and H shares still remain within a favorable valuation range, particularly in sectors like the ChiNext and Hang Seng Tech, where P/E ratios are at or below the 30th percentile[2] Investment Strategy - The current market rally is viewed as a rebound after a deep correction over the past two to three years, with expectations of further policy support leading to a more sustainable market reversal[2] - Key investment themes include focusing on undervalued stocks for valuation recovery, sectors benefiting from policy support such as consumption, internet, healthcare, and electric vehicles, and long-term companies with persistent undervaluation[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, disappointing corporate earnings, unexpected overseas economic downturns, liquidity risks, and geopolitical tensions[3]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2024 年 10 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 拥抱成长，优选景气+边际改善赛道 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors that align with trend hotspots and exhibit performance support, as well as a reversal in industry fundamentals. Key trend hotspots include AI computing power, satellite internet & low-altitude economy, industrial manufacturing upgrades, and information security [5][12] - The report highlights four sub-sectors showing signs of bottom reversal based on the ROE situation from the 2024 H1 interim report: optical communication equipment and devices, private network communication, IoT modules, and IDC & CDN, which are expected to experience upward market turning points [5][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Communication Industry Overview - The overall communication industry has seen a rapid valuation change, with a 28.6% fluctuation from September 19 to September 30, 2024. The latest PE (TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) stands at 31.4 times, placing it at the 22.5 percentile over the past eight years [7][9] Sub-sector Analysis - **Optical Communication Equipment and Devices**: Benefiting from sustained demand for AI computing, the valuation and performance of optical communication are expected to improve. The PE for September 2024 is 50.3 times, at the historical median level, with a 43.1 percentile ranking [10][11] - **Private Network Communication**: Despite a decline in performance over the past two years, the gross margin has rebounded in 2024 H1. The PE for September 2024 is 48.5 times, at a relatively low historical level, with a 24.3 percentile ranking [10][11] - **IoT Modules**: Revenue growth has rebounded, and profitability is expected to improve. The PE for September 2024 is 36.2 times, at a historical low, with a 12.1 percentile ranking [11] - **IDC & CDN**: The industry is nearing the end of its cyclical downturn, with revenue recovery driven by AI demand. The PE for September 2024 is 39.0 times, at a relatively low historical level, with a 20.4 percentile ranking [11] Trend Hotspots - **AI Computing Power**: The report notes that policies are increasingly supporting the construction of intelligent computing infrastructure, presenting development opportunities for domestic computing power. Key beneficiaries include telecom operators and related service providers [12][13] - **Satellite Internet & Low-altitude Economy**: The report identifies several companies involved in the low-altitude economy and satellite communication as key beneficiaries of this trend [12][13] - **Industrial Intelligent Manufacturing**: The shift towards an interconnected industrial IT architecture is highlighted, with several companies positioned to benefit from this transition [14] - **Information Security**: The growing importance of cybersecurity amid geopolitical uncertainties is emphasized, with several companies identified as key players in this sector [14]