供应链优势领航，关注经营底部反转 买入(首次) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 基本数据 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 茶百道 恒生指数 相关研究 —茶百道（2555.HK）公司动态研究报告 2025 年 06 月 20 日 ▌ 行业生态稳步修复，外卖补贴助力需求爆发 2024H2 以来，现制茶饮行业价格战趋缓，前期闭店出清后， 市场延续头部集中趋势，2025 年品牌端推新价格缓步上涨。 2025 年 4 月，京东入局外卖行业，启动百亿补贴计划，美 团、饿了么相继跟进，而出餐稳定、客单低、消费频次高的 茶饮行业在此轮竞争中充分受益，尽管 6 月以来外卖补贴趋 于正常化，但品牌端受益于高频曝光与有效消费者触达，后 续长尾效应明显。 ▌ 供应链布局壁垒深，与加盟商共生关系 公司已实现全国 31 个省供应链全覆盖，配套 25 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the heat pump market in Europe, with a projected return to growth in 2025 as inventory levels decrease and demand rebounds [5]. - The liquid cooling business is experiencing significant growth, establishing a second growth curve for the company, with revenue expected to exceed 0.9 billion yuan in 2024, representing over 80% year-on-year growth [6]. - Continuous investment in research and development has created a strong competitive advantage, with the company holding 542 patents, including 74 invention patents domestically [7]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The European heat pump market faced a decline in 2024 due to subsidy policy adjustments and high inventory levels, leading to a 20% decrease in sales of related products. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2025 as demand improves and the company plans to enhance its market presence [5]. Business Performance - The liquid cooling temperature control business is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with successful partnerships established with major clients like ZTE and Infinera. The company aims to leverage its advantages in leak-free technology to penetrate new markets [6]. Research and Development - The company has made substantial investments in R&D, resulting in a robust patent portfolio and participation in national standards development, enhancing its industry influence and technological capabilities [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 21.82 billion yuan, 24.92 billion yuan, and 29.09 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.59 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 2.15 yuan. The current stock price reflects a PE ratio of 13.4, 11.8, and 10.0 for the respective years [10][12].

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业专题报告 全球十五大铜矿企业一季报汇总 海外铜矿企业有两家产量下滑多，增长主要 依靠中资企业 投 资 要 点 本文总结了智利和智利两个大型产铜国2025年1-4月的月度铜矿项目产量情况，以及12家海外大型铜矿企业和3家中资企业2025年一季度铜矿产量。 秘鲁产量恢复增长，智利产量保持增长势头： 智利1-4月铜矿产量175.2万金属吨，同比+3.57%（+6.03万吨），仍然保持了2024年的增长势头。而秘鲁在经历了2024年产量罕见下滑之后，2025年前4个月产量恢 复增长，1-4月秘鲁铜矿产量89.2万金属吨，同比+5.59%，+4.72万吨。智利的铜矿增长主要来自Escondida项目，主要是更高的采矿强度和原矿入选品位。秘鲁的铜 矿产量增长主要来源于Las Bambas和Toromocho两个大型铜矿的产量增长。同时，智利的Collahuasi铜矿因为入选品位下降，以及秘鲁的Antapaccay铜矿因为原矿剥 采比提升等因素产量出现了不同程度的下滑。 十二家海外铜矿企业产量同比下滑： 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2025年6月20日 ◼ 分析师：傅鸿浩 ◼ S ...

2025 年 06 月 20 日 双融日报 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 27 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：储存、机器人、稳定币 1、储存主题：据《科创板日报》报道，继韩系两大存储 原厂先后放出 DDR4 停产时间，美光确定已向客户发出信件通 知 DDR4 将停产，预计未来 2~3 个季度陆续停止出货。Trend Force 数据显示，5 月 DDR4 单月涨幅 53%，创 2017 年以来最 大涨幅。相关标的：江波龙（ 301308 ）、兆易创新 （603586） 2、机器人主题：据"中科院之声"消息，中国科学院沈 阳自动化研究所日前研发了一套"刚柔耦合"的下肢多关节 康复外骨骼机器人，有望为下肢偏瘫患者提供运动功能重建 与行为辅助服务。结果显示，该研究方法有效实现了运动学 重塑、步态模式自然性与对称性等关键康复目标。相关标 的：振江股份(603507)、光大同创(301387) 相关研究 3、稳定币主题：在 2025 年陆家嘴论坛上，中国人民银 行行长潘功胜发表主题演讲，谈及央行货 ...

2025 年 06 月 19 日 研 多邻国（DUOL.O）：AI 技术重塑教育生态，订 阅驱动增长与全球化布局构筑盈利护城河 究 报 告 "悟界"系列大模型，高德开放平 台发布智能眼镜解决方案》2025- 06-12 行（WRD.O）：Robotaxi 领航出海， 平台化战略加速全球化商业兑现》 2025-06-09 3 、 《 计 算 机 行 业 周 报 ： DeepSeekR1-0528 升级，字节扣子空 间上线一键转播客功能》2025-06- 06 行 业 推荐(维持) 事件 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：谢孟津 S1050123110012 xiemj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机(申万) | 0.4 | -12.5 | 35.4 | | 沪深 300 | -0.1 | -3.4 | 9.8 | 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 多邻国官网发布 2025 年第一季度财报,公司当季实现总营收 2.307 亿美元，同比增长 38 ...

2025 年 06 月 19 日 AMD 发布 MI350 系列 GPU 性能升级， 中国科 学院发布「启蒙」芯片设计系统 告 —计算机行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机(申万) | 0.4 | -12.5 | 35.4 | | 沪深 300 | -0.1 | -3.4 | 9.8 | 市场表现 相关研究 1、《计算机行业周报：智源发布 "悟界"系列大模型，高德开放平 台发布智能眼镜解决方案》2025- 06-12 2、《计算机行业点评报告：文远知 行（WRD.O）：Robotaxi 领航出海， 平台化战略加速全球化商业兑现》 2025-06-09 3 、《计算机行业周报： DeepSeekR1-0528 升级，字节扣子空 间上线一键转播客功能》2025-06- 06 ▌算力： AMD 发布 MI350 系列 GPU 性能升级，预 告 MI400 联合 OpenAI 研发 6 月 13 日，AMD 推出 MI ...

2025 年 06 月 19 日 6 月 FOMC:滞胀预期加强，降息仍需等待 分析师：杨芹芹 S1050523040001 yangqq@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：孙航 S1050525050001 sunhang@cfsc.com.cn 最近一年大盘表现 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《4 月政治局会议重在维稳，加 紧实施存量政策，增量还需等待》 2025-04-25 2、《8 月 FOMC：降息进程开启，最 快九月》2024-08-01 3、《三中全会公报的六大看点》 2024-07-19 事件 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 19 日凌晨，美联储公布了 6 月议息会 议结果，维持 4.25%-4.5%利率不变，同时下修 2025 年 GDP 预期，上修通胀和失业率预期。 投资要点 ▌ 经济：滞胀预期加强 联储在 6 月上修了 2025 年和 2026 年的失业率和 PCE 的预 测，同时下修了经济预期。其中名义 PCE 和核心 PCE 均回升 至 3%以上，当前美国核心 PCE 同比 2.52%，名义 P ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a combination of capacity release, policy incentives, and AI-driven infrastructure growth, which will open up new avenues for growth [2] - The company's competitive advantage lies in its established global certification system, which enhances product competitiveness and facilitates entry into high-end markets [3] - The company has successfully integrated its products into major U.S. retail networks, which has contributed to a significant increase in its gross margin for overseas operations compared to domestic operations [3] - The company's share buyback plan and the increase in the buyback price reflect strong confidence in its future performance [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 35.46 billion yuan, 45.43 billion yuan, and 54.38 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.42 yuan, 2.02 yuan, and 2.42 yuan [7][9] - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rate of 29.4% in 2025, followed by 28.1% in 2026 and 19.7% in 2027 [9] - The gross margin for overseas business is projected to be 32.02% in 2024, significantly higher than the domestic gross margin of 11.91% [3]

--鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：55 分（中性） 2025 年 06 月 19 日 双融日报 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-06-18 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-06-17 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-06-16 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 55 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：储存、机器人、稳定币 1、储存主题：据《科创板日报》报道，继韩系两大存储 原厂先后放出 DDR4 停产时间，美光确定已向客户发出信件通 知 DDR4 将停产，预计未来 2~3 个季度陆续停止出货。Trend Force 数据显示，5 月 DDR4 单月涨幅 53%，创 2017 年以来最 大涨幅。相关标的：江波龙（ 301308 ）、兆易创新 （603586） 2、机器人主 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading enterprise in aluminum alloy die-casting, actively exploring a second growth curve through partnerships and new product developments [3][5]. - The company has established itself as a global leader in steering gear housings, with a significant market share increase from 12.43% in 2017 to 21.46% in 2021 [3][58]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in Mexico, which is expected to enhance profitability significantly [4][32]. - The company is entering the humanoid robot core components market through a joint venture, indicating diversification in its business strategy [5][9]. - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate strong growth, with projected revenues of 31.4 billion, 40.2 billion, and 49.8 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, respectively [6][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2000, the company specializes in precision die-casting of aluminum alloy automotive parts, including steering, transmission, and braking components [3][12]. - The company has formed stable partnerships with global Tier 1 automotive suppliers such as Bosch and ZF [3][58]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has successfully turned around its Mexican subsidiary, with plans for further expansion to meet increasing demand [4][32]. - The new projects in Mexico are expected to contribute approximately 110 million yuan in annual profits once fully operational [4]. Financial Performance - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with a 32% increase in 2022, driven by business expansion and new project launches [19][23]. - Profitability is expected to improve, with net profits projected to reach 2.8 billion, 3.6 billion, and 4.5 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [6][19]. Market Trends - The aluminum alloy die-casting market is projected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for lightweight materials in the automotive industry [48][54]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rising penetration of electric vehicles, with a forecasted market size of nearly 500 billion yuan for aluminum alloy die-casting components by 2025 [48][54]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing joint ventures and partnerships to enhance its capabilities in humanoid robotics and other advanced manufacturing sectors [5][9]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, which supports its long-term strategic goals [35][37].