Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for small-cap stocks, suggesting a rotation strategy that favors small-cap over large-cap stocks due to improved odds and market conditions [2][5][9]. Performance Statistics - Cumulative returns for the 中证2000 index are reported at -16.62%, while the 沪深300 index shows a modest gain of 1.99%. The rotation strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 109.24%, outperforming the benchmark by 114.83% [12]. - The annualized return for the rotation strategy since 2016 is 10.09%, significantly higher than the annualized return of 0.26% for the 沪深300 index and -2.34% for the 中证2000 index [12]. - The maximum drawdown for the rotation strategy is 32.46%, compared to 56.49% for 中证2000 and 40.18% for 沪深300, indicating a more stable performance [12]. Strategy Construction - The strategy is built on four key factors: monetary cycle, trading congestion, adjusted monetary activation index, and relative strength of small-cap versus large-cap stocks. A composite scoring system is used to determine market positioning [5][9]. - When monetary conditions are loose, the strategy recommends buying small-cap stocks, while in tighter conditions, it suggests investing in large-cap stocks [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant divergence between M1 and M2 growth rates, indicating a potential economic recovery. This divergence has led to a reversal in the relative performance of small-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks [12][13]. - The report notes that once a small-cap or large-cap style is established, it tends to persist for a considerable duration, exhibiting significant momentum effects [15]. Monthly Performance Analysis - The report provides a detailed monthly performance analysis from 2015 to 2025, showing varying performance trends for small-cap and large-cap stocks across different months [16]. - The average monthly win rate for small-cap stocks is reported at 54.55%, indicating a generally favorable environment for small-cap investments [16].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: High-Growth and Dividend Rotation Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to identify effective timing signals for rotating between high-growth and dividend strategies based on macroeconomic and market indicators[9]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. At the end of each month, the model selects effective signals from single-factor tests, including term spread, social financing growth, CPI and PPI quadrants, US Treasury yields, and capital flow indicators (ETF, insurance funds, foreign capital)[9]. 2. Each indicator provides a signal to either buy high-growth or dividend strategies. 3. The average score of these signals is used as the final score for allocation decisions[9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a "defensive and offensive" characteristic, balancing risk and return by maintaining a 60% defensive dividend base and 40% growth allocation during volatile market conditions[9]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. High-Growth and Dividend Rotation Timing Model - **Cumulative Return**: 259.92% - **Annualized Return**: 14.91% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.08% - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.16% - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio**: 0.64 - **Calmar Ratio**: 0.55[6] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Term Spread - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects fixed-income market investors' expectations of future economic growth. A declining or low term spread is unfavorable for high-growth styles[13]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the difference between 10-year and 1-year government bond yields. 2. For June 2025, the 1-year yield was 1.34% (down from 1.46% in May), and the 10-year yield was 1.65% (down from 1.67% in May). 3. The term spread for June 2025 was 0.31, up from 0.22 in May[13]. 2. Factor Name: Social Financing Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Serves as a leading macroeconomic indicator. Higher corporate financing demand indicates economic recovery expectations, supporting high-growth styles[13]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use the year-over-year growth rate of the total social financing stock. 2. For May 2025, the growth rate was 8.7%, unchanged from the previous month, continuing its marginal improvement since bottoming out in October 2024[13]. 3. Factor Name: CPI and PPI Quadrants - **Factor Construction Idea**: Timing effectiveness is higher than the CPI-PPI spread. When CPI and PPI rise simultaneously, especially when CPI rises faster, it indicates strong downstream demand and economic growth, favoring high-growth styles[16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Analyze CPI and PPI year-over-year changes. 2. For May 2025, CPI was -0.1% (unchanged from April), and PPI was -3.3% (down from -2.7% in April), indicating continued deflation and favoring dividend styles[16]. 4. Factor Name: US Treasury Yields - **Factor Construction Idea**: Rising US Treasury yields lead to foreign capital outflows and reduced global risk appetite, negatively impacting high-growth sectors with high valuations[16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Monitor the 10-year US Treasury yield. 2. As of June 2025, the yield remained at a high level of 4.35%, suppressing growth styles[16]. 5. Factor Name: Capital Flow Indicators - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects foreign capital's willingness to flow into the domestic market, influenced by factors like the USD index, RMB offshore exchange rate, and CDS spreads[17]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Construct a composite index using the USD index, RMB offshore exchange rate, and CDS spreads. 2. A stronger USD, weaker RMB, and wider CDS spreads indicate reduced foreign capital inflow willingness[17]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Term Spread - **June 2025 Value**: 0.31 (up from 0.22 in May)[13] 2. Social Financing Growth - **May 2025 Value**: 8.7% (unchanged from April)[13] 3. CPI and PPI Quadrants - **May 2025 CPI**: -0.1% (unchanged from April) - **May 2025 PPI**: -3.3% (down from -2.7% in April)[16] 4. US Treasury Yields - **June 2025 Yield**: 4.35% (remained at a high level)[16] 5. Capital Flow Indicators - **June 2025 Observation**: Foreign capital inflow willingness improved due to reduced ETF dividend net buying and increased foreign capital inflows[9][17]

--鑫融讯 2025 年 07 月 04 日 双融日报 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：79 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 79 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：光伏、能源金属、创新药 1、光伏主题：据上海有色网了解，为破除"内卷式"竞 争，近日国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划自 7 月开始集体减产 30％，此外部分玻璃企业堵口计划开始增多，预计后续国内 光伏玻璃供应量将快速下滑，国内供需失衡的状况将获得改 善，预计 7 月国内玻璃产量将下降至 45GW 左右。相关标的： 石英股份（603688）、爱旭股份（600732） c 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施， 鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本 决定生 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Insights - The company experienced a year-on-year revenue decline of 21.1% in Q1 2025, primarily due to decreases in coal sales volume and prices, as well as declines in electricity sales volume and prices [4]. - The company has completed the acquisition of Hangjin Energy, which adds significant coal reserves and production capacity, enhancing its integrated competitive advantage and long-term profitability [5][6]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 5.2% for 2024, continuing its trend of high returns to investors since 2017 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a coal production of 82.5 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while coal sales volume fell by 15.3% to 99.3 million tons [4]. - The company forecasts net profits of 50.04 billion, 50.28 billion, and 50.51 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.5, 16.4, and 16.3 [7][8]. - The main revenue for 2025 is projected at 321.38 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 5.0% from the previous year [10]. Cost and Expense Analysis - The sales expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 0.19%, a year-on-year increase of 0.07 percentage points, while the management expense ratio was 4.22%, up 1.14 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The financial expense ratio increased to 0.23%, marking a year-on-year rise of 0.20 percentage points [5]. Asset and Resource Development - The acquisition of assets is expected to significantly enhance the company's operational efficiency and sales effectiveness, particularly in the eastern Mongolia region [5]. - The Tarang Coal Mine is projected to reach an annual production capacity of 10 million tons by 2029, which will substantially boost revenue and profitability [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [8] Core Views - The approval of the third phase expansion project of the Yulong Copper Mine opens up growth potential for copper production, increasing the production scale from 19.89 million tons per year to 30 million tons per year [5][6] - The Yulong Copper Mine is the company's main source of revenue and profit, with a net profit of 5.41 billion yuan in 2024, contributing 3.14 billion yuan to the parent company [6] - The company expects to produce 18-20 thousand tons of copper metal annually after the completion of the expansion project, further enhancing its profitability [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report includes a comparative performance analysis of the company against the CSI 300 index [3] Investment Highlights - The Yulong Copper Mine expansion project includes the construction of a new 11 million tons per year concentrator and an increase in hydrometallurgical capacity from 300,000 tons per year to 1 million tons per year, with a total estimated investment of 4.794 billion yuan [5] - The mine's service life is projected to extend to 23 years post-expansion [5] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 57.472 billion yuan, 60.229 billion yuan, and 63.043 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 3.616 billion yuan, 3.902 billion yuan, and 4.208 billion yuan for the same years [7][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 11.4, 10.6, and 9.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][10]

Group 1 - The current market sentiment score is 63, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, which suggests a gradual upward trend supported by recent improvements in market sentiment and policy [5][11]. - The report highlights three key themes: photovoltaic, energy metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with specific companies identified for potential investment opportunities [6]. Group 2 - In the photovoltaic sector, leading domestic glass manufacturers plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July, which is expected to improve the supply-demand imbalance and decrease domestic glass production to around 45GW [6]. - In the energy metals sector, the Democratic Republic of Congo has extended a temporary ban on cobalt exports for an additional three months due to high inventory levels, impacting companies like Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [6]. - The innovative pharmaceuticals theme is supported by new measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration to enhance the use of medical insurance data in drug development, benefiting companies such as Heng Rui Medicine and BeiDa Pharmaceutical [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for Zhengyu Industrial (603089.SH) [2][6] Core Views - Zhengyu Industrial is a well-established automotive shock absorber company benefiting from domestic and overseas capacity expansion [4] - The company aims to transition from an aftermarket and OEM production model to providing comprehensive design and manufacturing solutions for automotive suspension systems [4] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.98%, and a net profit of 71.46 million yuan, up 21.39% year-on-year [4] - The revenue from automotive suspension system shock absorbers was 1.635 billion yuan, growing by 32.09%, with a gross margin of 23.38% [4] - The company has expanded its production capacity significantly and is moving upstream in the supply chain, producing key shock absorber components in-house [5] - The company has begun production at its smart manufacturing base in Thailand, which will enhance its competitiveness in international markets [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.057 billion yuan, 3.808 billion yuan, and 4.533 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.58 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 1.10 yuan [6][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 22.2, 15.5, and 11.7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][10] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth rate of 95.3% in 2025 and maintain strong growth in subsequent years [10]

2025 年 07 月 02 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：74 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 74 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：光伏、能源金属、创新药 宏观经济意外下滑、地缘政治风险、流动性收紧超预期、行 业政策低于预期。 策 略 研 c 1、光伏主题：据上海有色网了解，为破除"内卷式"竞 争，近日国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划自 7 月开始集体减产 30％，此外部分玻璃企业堵口计划开始增多，预计后续国内 光伏玻璃供应量将快速下滑，国内供需失衡的状况将获得改 善，预计 7 月国内玻璃产量将下降至 45GW 左右。相关标的： 石英股份（603688）、爱旭股份（600732） 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the companies involved, specifically Jianghuai Automobile, Seres, and Wuxi Zhenhua [9]. Core Insights - The launch of the Hongmeng Zhixing Zun Jie S800 sedan has achieved over 6,500 pre-orders in its first month, breaking the monopoly of foreign brands in the million-level sedan market [4][6]. - The vehicle features advanced technology, including a high-pressure silicon carbide motor and a comprehensive range of 1,333 km for the range-extended version, and 702 km for the pure electric version [5][6]. - The report highlights the continuous high growth in pre-order numbers, with daily increments of 100-200 units recently [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown a 30.5% increase over the past 12 months, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 13.2% [1]. Investment Highlights - The Zun Jie S800's pre-order milestones include 1,000 units in the first hour, 1,600 in the first 24 hours, and 5,000 in 19 days, indicating strong market demand [4]. - The vehicle's dimensions are 5480×2000×1542 mm with a wheelbase of 3370 mm, and it offers various color options [4]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Jianghuai Automobile is projected to have an EPS of 0.12 in 2024, increasing to 0.25 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 334.08 for 2024 [9]. - Seres is expected to have an EPS of 3.84 in 2024, rising to 4.61 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 34.98 for 2024 [9]. - Wuxi Zhenhua is forecasted to have an EPS of 1.41 in 2024, increasing to 1.80 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 24.23 for 2024 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the companies involved, specifically Jianghuai Automobile, Seres, and Wuxi Zhenhua [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Hongmeng Intelligent's offline layout has reached a new high, with 32 new user centers established in April and May 2025. Currently, there are over 290 Aito user centers, 160 Hongmeng Intelligent user centers, and 710 experience centers [4][5]. - Hongmeng Intelligent's sales are expected to continue breaking records due to ongoing channel expansion and the new vehicle cycle. The total number of stores has exceeded 1,000, and weekly sales surpassed 12,497 units, achieving over 44,454 vehicle deliveries in May 2025 [5][6]. - The launch of the high-end model, Zun Jie S800, has seen significant demand, with over 6,500 pre-orders in its first month, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics against foreign brands [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown a 30.5% increase over the past 12 months, while the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 13.2% [2]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH) is projected to have an EPS of 0.25 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 160.36, and is rated as a "Buy" [9]. - Seres (601127.SH) is expected to have an EPS of 4.61 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 29.14, also rated as a "Buy" [9]. - Wuxi Zhenhua (605319.SH) is forecasted to have an EPS of 1.80 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 18.98, rated as a "Buy" [9].