2025 年 05 月 06 日 年报季顺利收官，五一白酒需求符合预期 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：张倩 S1050124070037 zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | -1.5 | 8.1 | -9.2 | | 沪深 300 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 4.6 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：业绩密集 披露期，整体反馈符合预期》2025- 04-28 2、《食品饮料行业周报：社零数据 超预期暨一季度业绩前瞻》2025- 04-21 3、《食品饮料行业点评报告：内需 持续释放，3 月社零数据超预期》 2025-04-18 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）河南盛林年销售 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 全天候四月收涨+5.56%， 推荐关注半导体ETF ——指数基金投资+ 2025年5月5日 n 分析师：吕思江 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 市场观点和ETF交易机会 PAGE 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 p 【国内市场跟踪】上周市场日均成交1.1万亿，小盘、科技占优，银行股一季报数据不佳，4月30日银行板 块大跌-2%，红利周内跌幅靠前。港股市场优于A股，恒生科技收涨+5.24%领涨亚太市场，港股通高股息 率+1.12%。4月政治局会议未给出新一轮的增量刺激政策，地产刺激落空，市场普遍担忧关税对经济增速 压力。4月30日，国家统计局公布4月官方PMI数据：4月制造业PMI为49.0%，前值50.5%；非制造业PMI 为50.4%，前值50.8%，高股息再度成为资金防守方向，5月风格轮动模型信号切向红利。 p 【港股市场周观点】港股择时模型维持半仓，逢低配置创新药、汽车、AI互联网、低位消费，以及红利低 波的电力燃气、银行 ü 【情绪面】港股本周市场情绪延续看空， ...

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 60, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, which suggests a gradual upward trend supported by recent improvements in market sentiment and policy support [6][10]. Hot Topics Tracking - **Cross-Border Payment**: The People's Bank of China has issued a plan to enhance cross-border financial services, aiming to improve service levels for enterprises going abroad and expand the CIPS network. Related stocks include Cross-Border Communication (002640) and Qingdao Kingking (002094) [7]. - **Virtual Power Plants**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have released guidelines to promote the development of virtual power plants, targeting a national adjustment capacity of over 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and over 50 million kilowatts by 2030. Related stocks include Guoneng Rixin (301162) and Kehua Data (002335) [7]. - **Duty-Free Theme**: The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have announced measures to optimize the departure tax refund policy, aiming to enhance the supply of refund goods and expand the number of duty-free stores. Related stocks include China Duty Free (601888) and Wangfujing (600859) [7]. Major Capital Inflows and Outflows - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflows include Changshan Beiming (000158.SZ) with a net inflow of 1.036 billion, Ruixin Micro (603893.SH) with 613 million, and Southern Precision (002553.SZ) with 366 million [11]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflows include Leo Group (002131.SZ) with a net outflow of 544 million, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH) with 498 million, and Sanqi Interactive Entertainment (002555.SZ) with 419 million [13]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net short selling include Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) with 16 million, Yili Group (600887.SH) with 837 thousand, and Haiguang Information (688041.SH) with 462 thousand [14]. Industry Overview - The top ten industries with the highest net inflows include SW Computer with 210 million, SW Automotive with 194 million, and SW Machinery Equipment with 189 million [16][17]. - The top ten industries with the highest net outflows include SW Banking with -141 million, SW Non-Bank Financials with -91 million, and SW Basic Chemicals with -155 million [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including 德明利 (Demingli), 泰嘉股份 (Taijia), 意华股份 (Yihua), 兆易创新 (Zhaoyi Innovation), 芯源微 (Xinyuanwei), 海光信息 (Haiguang Information), 寒武纪 (Cambricon), 南亚新材 (Nanya New Materials), and 华丰科技 (Huafeng Technology) [12][23]. Core Insights - North American cloud giants, including Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, have reported Q1 2025 cloud business performance exceeding market expectations, indicating strong demand for AI computing power [5][19][20]. - The AI applications are driving significant performance improvements for cloud service providers, highlighting a growing demand for AI computing hardware and data center infrastructure [8][20]. - The DRAM market is experiencing a price increase of 22% due to inventory replenishment efforts by IT equipment manufacturers, influenced by tariff risks [9][21]. - The DRAM industry is transitioning to advanced processes, with Samsung planning to expand its 1a/1b nm capacity significantly, which is expected to impact market prices positively [10][22]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic industry saw a 1.79% increase from April 28 to May 2, ranking 6th among sectors, with a P/E ratio of 52.66 [31][34]. - Within the electronic sector, digital chip design, semiconductor materials, and other electronic segments showed the highest gains [34]. Company Financials - Microsoft reported Q3 FY2025 revenue of $70.066 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, with Azure cloud revenue growing by 33% [5][18]. - Amazon's Q1 FY2025 net sales reached $155.667 billion, a 9% increase, with net profit soaring by 64% [6][19]. - Meta's Q1 FY2025 revenue was $42.314 billion, up 16%, with net profit increasing by 35% [7][20]. Price Trends - DRAM prices for DDR4 8Gb products rose to $1.65, a 22.22% increase from March, while NAND flash prices also saw an increase of 11.06% [9][21]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), with DDR4 still in strong demand due to cost-effectiveness [10][22][11]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic AI computing-related stocks such as 寒武纪 (Cambricon), 海光信息 (Haiguang Information), and others [8][20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to lead the development of smart glasses and is closely following the trend of AI PCs, showcasing its innovative products at the 2025 International Eyewear Exhibition [3][4]. - The company has introduced three models of smart glasses, demonstrating its technological strength in AR and AI, with the AI+AR version featuring the world's first dual-eye full-color array waveguide technology [3]. - The company continues to innovate in the gaming PC sector, launching various products that meet user demands, including high-performance laptops and mini PCs [4]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 34.03 billion, 37.46 billion, and 42.07 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.62, 0.92, and 1.32 yuan [5][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 53, 36, and 25 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating potential for revenue and profit growth driven by market demand recovery and new customer acquisition [5][9]. - The company is expected to experience significant growth in net profit, with a forecasted increase of 190.1% in 2025 and continued growth in subsequent years [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Zhongju Gaoxin (600872.SH) [1][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.102 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 181 million yuan, also down 24% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to 38.73% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [2] - The company successfully reduced inventory levels, with revenue from soy sauce, chicken essence, and cooking oil decreasing by 32%, 29%, and 50% respectively, due to adjustments in supply rhythm [3] - The company is expanding its restaurant product matrix and e-commerce channels, with direct sales channel revenue increasing by 33% year-on-year [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.17, 1.29, and 1.43 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 15, and 14 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.102 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 181 million yuan, also down 24% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin increased to 38.73%, while net profit margin decreased to 16.46% [2] Inventory and Pricing - The company effectively managed inventory reduction, with significant revenue declines in key product lines due to strategic adjustments [3] - The pricing for main products is stabilizing as inventory levels return to healthy ranges [3] Channel Development - The company is enhancing its restaurant product offerings and expanding e-commerce channels, with notable growth in direct sales [4] - The focus on one-stop service is expected to improve brand penetration in key areas [4] Earnings Forecast - Adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.17, 1.29, and 1.43 yuan, reflecting ongoing operational improvements [5]

2025 年 05 月 05 日 业绩表现抢眼，人形机器人构筑新增长级 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：黎江涛 S1050521120002 lijt@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-04-30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 48.04 | | 总市值（亿元） | 175 | | 总股本（百万股） | 364 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 204 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 12.87-48.04 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 245.02 | 市场表现 -50 0 50 100 150 (%) 浙江荣泰 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《浙江荣泰（603119）：切入人 形机器人核心环节，打造新增长 点》2025-02-16 2、《浙江荣泰（603119）：二季度 业绩亮眼，云母材料龙头持续高 增》2024-07-10 3、《浙江荣泰（603119）：业绩亮 眼，长期成长可期》2024-04-25 —浙江荣泰（603119.SH）公司事件点评报告 浙江荣泰发布公告：公司 2025Q1 实现收入 2.66 亿元 /yoy+23 ...

市场表现 2025 年 05 月 05 日 高景气度延续，盈利能力释放 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-04-30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 164.75 | | 总市值（亿元） | 297 | | 总股本（百万股） | 180 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 156 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 18.02-164.75 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 177.48 | -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 (%) 万辰集团 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《万辰集团（300972）：拓店势 能延续，规模效应释放》2025-04- 20 2、《万辰集团（300972）：利润持 续释放，布局省钱超市探索新业 态》2025-01-26 3、《万辰集团（300972）：跑马圈 ...

2025 年 05 月 05 日 业绩表现抢眼，新业务增长强劲 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：黎江涛 S1050521120002 lijt@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-04-30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 71.4 | | 总市值（亿元） | 53 | | 总股本（百万股） | 74 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 29 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 35.35-93.98 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 205.24 | 市场表现 -50 0 50 100 150 (%) 强瑞技术 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《强瑞技术（301128）：业绩表 现抢眼，新业务持续发力》2024- 09-01 2、《强瑞技术（301128）：治具及 设备构筑基本盘，液冷打造第二成 长极》2023-05-10 —强瑞技术（301128.SZ）公司事件点评报告 强 瑞 技 术 发布公告： 2025Q1 公 司 实 现 收入 3.17 亿 元 /yoy+111%，实现归母净利润 0.12 亿元/yoy+184%。 投资要点 ▌ 业绩表现抢 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's data center business is experiencing significant growth, entering a phase of increased volume [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 628 million yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 54 million yuan, up 7.34% year-over-year [1][3]. - The data service segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of 75.4% year-over-year, contributing 1.547 billion yuan to the total revenue in 2024 [2][3]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients such as ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba, leading to rapid business scale growth [2][3]. - The company is focusing on innovation and energy-saving technologies, particularly in evaporative cooling and liquid cooling products, which have seen revenue growth of approximately 2.3 times and 2.9 times, respectively, compared to 2023 [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 278 million yuan, 355 million yuan, and 446 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.05 yuan, 1.33 yuan, and 1.68 yuan [5][11]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at 4.427 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 46.8% compared to 2024 [11].