交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | | 46.19 | 美元 | 60.00 | +29.9% | | | 欢聚集团 (YY US) | | | | | | | 1 季度利润超预期；关注直播企稳及广告业务增量释放 考虑直播业务调整影响持续，我们小幅下调 2025 年收入预期 3%（对应同比降 幅 5%）。基于审慎的营销支出，小幅上调 2025 年经调整净利润预期至 2.7 亿 美元。基于SOTP 估值，维持60 美元目标价，其中：1）BIGO 41 美元，对应8 倍 2025 年市盈率，2）现金 19 美元，基于净现金 30%折价。公司维持稳定股 东回馈（3 年 6 亿美元分红+3 亿美元回购，年均股东回报占市值比 13%）。截 至 1 季度末，公司净现金 34 亿美元，约为目前市值的 150%。维持买入。关注 广告业务增长及对利润贡献。 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 5/25 -20% - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, YY US, with a target price of $60.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.9% from the current price of $46.19 [1][29]. Core Insights - The first quarter profits exceeded expectations, with revenue reported at $490 million, a year-on-year decline of 12%. The live streaming revenue decreased by 20%, primarily due to adjustments in non-core voice streaming business and the prior removal of BIGO Live. However, there are signs of marginal improvement in key developed markets, such as a 4% quarter-on-quarter increase in paying users in North America [2][7]. - Non-live revenue grew by 25%, now accounting for 25% of total revenue, with advertising revenue increasing by 27% and SaaS business growing over 20% [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit for the quarter was $63 million, better than the expected $53 million [2][7]. - The company has a stable shareholder return plan, with $600 million in dividends and $300 million in buybacks over three years, representing an average annual return of 13% of market capitalization [2][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been slightly reduced by 3% to $2.122 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5%. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been increased to $267 million [5][30]. - The company expects a recovery in BIGO live streaming revenue and accelerated growth in advertising revenue in the second quarter, which may offset the impact of adjustments in the live streaming business [2][7]. - The financial model indicates a stable gross margin expectation despite the anticipated increase in advertising revenue, which typically has a lower profit margin [2][7]. Financial Data - As of the end of the first quarter, the company reported net cash of $3.4 billion, approximately 150% of its current market capitalization [2][13]. - The company has maintained a consistent cash flow, with operating cash flow reported at $58 million for the first quarter [18][31]. - The projected financials for 2025 include total revenue of $2.122 billion, with a gross profit of $764 million and a net profit of $212 million [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price adjusted from $165 to $135, indicating a potential upside of 31.1% from the current price of $102.98 [2][3][12]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue and gross profit impacted by tariff uncertainties affecting TEMU and rising short-term logistics costs. The mainland e-commerce advertising revenue growth met expectations, but net profit was below forecasts due to increased subsidies in response to national policies [3][7]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on profits in Q2 2025 due to these factors, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts by 9% and 25% respectively for 2025 [3][4]. - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for a return to normalized profit levels by 2026, supported by strategic adjustments and merchant support plans [3][4]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised to RMB 449.83 billion, down from RMB 496.41 billion, reflecting a 9.4% decrease. For 2026 and 2027, revenue is expected to be RMB 556.01 billion and RMB 630.39 billion, respectively [4][15]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 104.83 billion, a 25.4% decrease from previous estimates, with further declines expected in 2026 and 2027 [4][15]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to decline from 28.5% in 2024 to 24.6% in 2025, with a gradual recovery anticipated thereafter [4][15]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights a significant drop in adjusted net profit for Q1 2025, which fell 45% year-on-year to RMB 16.92 billion, significantly below consensus estimates [7][8]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 57%, down from 62% in the previous quarter, indicating pressure on profitability [8][9]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $143.36 billion, with a year-to-date change of 6.18% [6][10].

交银国际研究 快手 (1024 HK) 1 季度业绩符合预期；海外运营层面盈利，可灵商业化加速 1 年股价表现 买入 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 5/25 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 1024 HK MSCI中国指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 66.35 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 38.15 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 173,731.84 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 26.57 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 17.90 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 49.84 | 资料来源 : FactSet 赵丽, CFA 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 港元 48.75 | 港元 64.00 | +31.3% | | mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 蔡涵 hanna.cai@boco ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Kuaishou (1024 HK), with a target price of HKD 64.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.3% from the current price of HKD 48.75 [1][24]. Core Insights - The first quarter performance of Kuaishou met expectations, with total revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 32.6 billion and RMB 4.6 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11% and 4% [5]. - The report highlights that Kuaishou's overseas operations have turned profitable, accelerating commercialization efforts [2]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in e-commerce GMV and advertising revenue, with projections for the second quarter indicating a 14% year-on-year increase in e-commerce GMV and a 12% growth in advertising revenue [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: RMB 113.47 billion in 2023, RMB 126.90 billion in 2024, RMB 142.34 billion in 2025, RMB 155.56 billion in 2026, and RMB 168.17 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 11.8%, 12.2%, 9.3%, and 8.1% respectively [25]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 28.50 billion in 2027, with significant growth in the years 2024 and 2025 [25]. - The report notes that the adjusted net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 14% for 2025, maintaining similar levels to 2024 [5]. Segment Performance - E-commerce GMV grew by 15% year-on-year, with the MAU penetration rate at 19% and average spending per user increasing by 7% [5]. - Online marketing revenue growth has slowed to 8% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from external advertising and support for merchants [5]. - Live streaming revenue has resumed growth, increasing by 14% year-on-year, with a significant rise in the number of contracted agencies and streamers [5]. Valuation - The report maintains the 2025 profit expectation at RMB 20.3 billion, corresponding to an adjusted net profit margin of 14% [5]. - A valuation premium is applied due to Kuaishou's leading video generation capabilities and commercialization potential, with a target price based on a 13x P/E ratio for 2025 [5].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 28 日 今日焦点 | 美团 | | 3690 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 外卖竞争投入加大，看好美团外卖业务运营能 | | 评级: 买入 | | 力，维持买入 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 129.40 | 目标价: 港元 165.00↓ | 潜在涨幅: +27.5% | | 谷馨瑜, CPA | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 2025 年 1 季度业绩：收入同比增 18%，其中核心商业/新业务增 18%/19%。核心商业调整后运营利润率 21%，同比提升 3.2 个百分点； 新业务运营亏损 23 亿元，同比持续收窄，环比小幅扩大。 外卖补贴加大或影响 2 季度 CLC 收入及利润增长。我们预计外卖单量同 比增速中高个位数，闪购仍维持略超 30%的单量增速，即时配送日单预 计同比增 11%。补贴增加对收入或有短期负面影响，我们预计 2 季度外 卖/闪购收入增速分别为 4%/30%，UE 同比下降。预计到店酒旅 GTV/收 入/利润增速分别为 28%/18%/18%，竞争趋缓后业务稳健增长。新业务 受零售及 ...

| 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 276,745 | 337,592 | 388,895 | 436,083 | 472,495 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.8 | 22.0 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 8.3 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 23,253 | 43,772 | 47,005 | 60,350 | 68,671 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 3.71 | 7.00 | 7.58 | 9.73 | 11.08 | | 同比增长 (%) | 715.5 | 88.6 | 8.4 | 28.4 | 13.8 | | 前EPS预测值 (人民币) | | | 8.42 | 9.94 | 11.30 | | 调整幅度 (%) | | | -10.0 | -2.1 | -2.0 | | 市盈率 (倍) | 32.0 | 17.0 | 15.6 | 12.2 | 10.7 | ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 郑民康 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1810 文昊, CPA | 电力 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 3.19 | 港元 3.77↑ | +18.2% | | | 中国电力 (2380 HK) | | | | | 上半年火电点火价差有望优于预期，目前股息率仍吸引；上调目标价 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2380 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 4.24 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 2.77 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 39,460.94 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 25.33 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 0.63 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 3.01 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | b ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 3.77, indicating a potential upside of 18.2% from the current price of HKD 3.19 [2][12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal-fired power price differential is expected to outperform expectations in the first half of the year, and the current dividend yield remains attractive. The target price has been raised due to adjustments in financial forecasts and valuation methods [2][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 44,262 million - 2024: RMB 54,213 million (22.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 55,711 million (2.8% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 59,410 million (6.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 65,201 million (9.7% YoY growth) [5][13] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 3,084 million - 2024: RMB 3,862 million (25.3% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 4,767 million (23.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 5,670 million (18.9% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 7,395 million (30.4% YoY growth) [5][13]. Operational Performance - The company's total power generation for January to April remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.3% YoY. Wind and solar power generation saw significant increases of 32.1% and 13.6% respectively, while coal power generation decreased by 14.2% due to asset sales [6][7]. - The report notes that the company plans to prioritize wind power projects with good grid connection resources before June, which is expected to support stable growth in overall power generation [6]. Valuation Adjustments - The report adjusts the valuation of the company's hydropower assets to 1.9 times the 2025 estimated book value, up from 1.5 times, leading to an increase in the target price to HKD 3.77 from HKD 3.51 [6][9]. - The report also notes a decrease in fuel costs for the coal-fired segment, which is expected to support profit forecasts [6]. Shareholder Confidence - The parent company has increased its stake in the company, indicating confidence in its future performance. The current dividend yield of 6% for 2025 and 7% for 2026 is considered attractive for investors [6][12].

交银国际研究 1 年股价表现 公司更新 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 3690 HK 恒生指数 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 129.40 | 港元 | 165.00↓ | +27.5% | | | 美团 (3690 HK) | | | | | | | 外卖竞争投入加大，看好美团外卖业务运营能力，维持买入 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 276,745 | 337,592 | 388,895 | 436,083 | 472,495 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.8 | 22.0 | 15.2 ...