交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 27 日 今日焦点 | 长城汽车 | 2333 HK | | --- | --- | | 新一轮产品周期有望推动销量上行，维持买入 | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 港元 11.98 目标价: 港元 17.36 | 潜在涨幅: +44.9% | | 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com | | 尽管长城汽车累计销量同比微降，但结构性优化与细分领域突破成为核 心亮点。高端化和智能化进程提速。 全球化布局方面，长城汽车出口布局升级，实现本地化生产和销售。我 们认为高端车型的占比提高和出口布局有望支持盈利增长。维持买入评 级和目标价 17.36 港元。 2024 年 9 月末以来，软件行业平均市销率（TTM）最高提升至 8.0 倍， 后受关税不确定性影响回调至 6.4 倍。 2024 年及 2025 年 1 季度，软件行业收入增速较 2023 年逐步回暖，利润 亦加速释放，显示行业结构性调整影响逐步缓和，预计未来 AI 普惠及行 业应用加速落地带动收入/利润继续回暖。考虑竞争持续，各公司表现或 将继续分化。 我们核心观点不变，软件企业毛利率与估值水 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 26 日 今日焦点 2025 年 5 月 26 日 每日晨报 | 同程旅行 | | 780 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 季度利润好于预期，OTA | 利润率提升，预计 2 | 评级: 买入 | | 季度趋势一致 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 20.50 | 目标价: 港元 25.50 | 潜在涨幅: +24.4% | | 孙梦琪 | mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com | | 1 季度业绩基本符合预期，利润超预期 8%，得益于谨慎的补贴及投放策 略，OTA 业务利润率同比提升 7 个百分点。预计 2 季度 OTA 收入同比增 14%，利润率保持同比提升趋势，境内酒店间夜量同比高个位数增长， ADR 转正及补贴率缩减带动收入增长，预计下半年境内酒店收入主要增 长推动力来自间夜量和 ADR 上涨。度假业务受战略调整影响收入下降但 对利润影响甚微。我们微调预测，维持目标价 25.5 港元及买入评级。 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 年初至 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 23 日 今日焦点 | 第四范式 | | | | 6682 HK | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 季度核心先知 | AI | 平台加速增长，费用优化或 | 评级: 买入 | | 拉动 2025 | | 年实现盈利 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 | | 47.45 | 目标价: 港元 64.00 | 潜在涨幅: +34.9% | | 谷馨瑜, CPA | | | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 1 季度收入加速增长 30%至 10.8 亿元，其中先知 AI 平台/SHIFT 智能解决 方案/式说 AIGS 服务收入分别同比+61%/-15%/-22%，先知 AI 平台占收比 提升至 74.8%。 AI agent 需求增长、产品迭代升级、多元化行业拓展共同推动先知 AI 平 台稳定增长。1 季度，先知平台进一步升级，集成 150+主流大模型及丰 富的 AI 应用矩阵。软件定义算力方面，升级 SageOne IA 一体机解决方 案，提升 GPU 利用率及推理性能。行业方面，除深耕优势领域外，进 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Lexin Group (LX US), with a target price of $11.80, indicating a potential upside of 36.1% from the current price of $8.67 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in asset quality and has increased its dividend payout ratio. The dividend payout ratio was raised from 20% to 25% in November 2024, with plans to further increase it to 30% starting in the second half of 2025 [6][8]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 reached 430 million RMB, marking a 113.4% year-on-year increase, attributed mainly to a decrease in provisioning expenses [6][7]. - The company maintains guidance for substantial profit growth in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.93 billion RMB, representing a 75% year-on-year increase [6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 13,057 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 32.3%. However, a decline of 4.6% is expected in 2025 [5][13]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 1,100 million RMB, with a growth of 3.2% compared to 2023. The Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 2,062 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a 71.4% increase [5][9]. - The company’s loan facilitation is projected to be 218 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3% [9][14]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The 90-day delinquency rate improved to 3.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating better asset quality [6][7]. - The company has shifted towards a low-risk business model, with the light asset model accounting for 28% of loan facilitation in Q1 2025, up from 20% in Q4 2024 [6][7]. Market Position and Comparison - The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately 1,149.56 million USD, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 49.48% [4][8]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $11.43 and a low of $1.62, showcasing significant volatility and potential for growth [4][8].

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 2025 年 5 月 22 日 百度 (BIDU US) 云业务大超预期，AI 搜索变现仍需时间 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 85.48 美元 99.00↓ +15.8% | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 134,598 | 133,125 | 135,508 | 142,792 | 150,953 | | 同比增长 (%) | 8.8 | -1.1 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 5.7 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 28,747 | 27,002 | 21,014 | 22,788 | 24,779 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 80.91 | 76.71 | 60.65 | 65.94 | 71.64 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.8 | -5.2 | -20.9 | 8.7 | 8.7 | | 前EPS预测值 (人民币) | | | 71.3 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | 1.71 | 美元 | 2.10↓ | +22.8% | | | 爱奇艺 (IQ US) | | | | | | | 1 | 季度业绩符合预期，关注微剧商业化进展 | | | | | 公司聚焦内容生态升级，增加微剧内容及用户增长投入，尽管将拖累短期利 润，但长期在用户时长竞争中有望提升平台竞争力。基于10倍市盈率及2025- 26 年平均经调整净利润 14 亿元，下调未来 12 个月目标价至 2.1 美元（原为 2.4 美元），较现价有 23%上涨空间，维持买入。关注微剧对会员增长促进效 果，以及广告、电商等商业化进展。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 5/25 -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% IQ US MSCI中国指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (美元) | 4.78 | | - ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 73.7% from the current closing price of HKD 77.55 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin has improved quarter-on-quarter, and net losses have significantly narrowed, with expectations for a major product cycle in the second half of the year. In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 15.8 billion, a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle sales increasing by 2.7% to 94,000 units [3][8]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between RMB 17.5 billion and RMB 18.7 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.7% to 18.3%, with expected deliveries of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles [3][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30.68 billion - 2024: RMB 40.87 billion - 2025E: RMB 86.17 billion - 2026E: RMB 113.34 billion - 2027E: RMB 125.49 billion - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.5 billion by 2026 and RMB 4.61 billion by 2027, with a significant reduction in net losses projected for 2025 [4][13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is set to launch several new models, including the MONA M03 MAX and the new generation P7, which are expected to enhance sales and improve margins. The introduction of the Kunpeng super electric vehicle in Q4 2025 is anticipated to have a positive impact on gross margins [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong positioning among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with expectations for continued sales growth driven by new model launches and advancements in autonomous driving technology [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) [4][12]. Core Insights - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 66.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.7% from the current price of HKD 46.90 [1][12]. - The company has initiated an H-share placement to raise approximately HKD 796 million to support pipeline expansion and operations, which is expected to alleviate cash burn pressure significantly [7]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 showed a strong growth of 59.2% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of Taitasip and Vidisizumab [7]. - The report maintains expectations for continued loss reduction in 2025-2026, with a forecasted break-even point in 2027 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,076 million - 2024: RMB 1,710 million - 2025E: RMB 2,365 million - 2026E: RMB 3,331 million - 2027E: RMB 5,459 million - The net profit (loss) projections are: - 2023: (RMB 1,511 million) - 2024: (RMB 1,468 million) - 2025E: (RMB 800 million) - 2026E: (RMB 262 million) - 2027E: RMB 398 million [3][13]. - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the net profit forecast for 2027, increasing by over 60% due to optimistic expectations for Taitasip's market performance [7][8]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of the company at approximately RMB 33,799 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 66.00 [9]. - The projected revenue growth reflects a robust increase, with expected revenues reaching RMB 18,221 million by 2033 [9]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 225.69%, with a 52-week high of HKD 47.00 and a low of HKD 10.62 [6]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 7.65 million shares [6]. Analyst Contact - The report includes contact information for analysts Ethan Ding and Gloria Zhuge for further inquiries [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $2.10, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of $1.71 [1][26]. Core Insights - The company's quarterly performance met expectations, focusing on content ecosystem upgrades and increased investment in micro-drama content and user growth, which may temporarily impact short-term profits but is expected to enhance long-term competitiveness in user engagement [1][6]. - The report highlights the importance of micro-drama in driving membership growth and the progress in monetization through advertising and e-commerce [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 7.186 billion and an adjusted operating profit of RMB 459 million for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9% and 58%, respectively, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% and 13% [6][20]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to RMB 29.053 billion, with a slight decrease from previous estimates, while the adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 1.1 billion [1][27]. - The report anticipates stable membership and advertising revenue in Q2 2025, driven by the performance of popular content [6][21]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue composition includes paid memberships, online advertising, content distribution, and other income sources, with paid memberships expected to contribute RMB 17.693 billion in 2025 [1][27]. - The report indicates a focus on high-quality, shorter series and micro-dramas to diversify content offerings and reduce reliance on single titles [6][20]. Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to enhance its competitive position by increasing the quantity and quality of content, particularly through self-produced works and exploring new monetization avenues [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the strategic shift towards micro-dramas, with a current total of 15,000 micro-dramas available, split evenly between free and membership models [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) [4][12]. Core Insights - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 66.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.7% from the current price of HKD 46.90 [1][12]. - The company has initiated an H-share placement to raise approximately HKD 796 million to support pipeline expansion and operations, which is expected to alleviate cash burn pressure significantly [7]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 showed a strong growth of 59.2% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of Taitasip and Vidisizumab [7]. - The report maintains expectations for continued loss reduction in 2025-2026, with a forecasted break-even point in 2027 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections (in million RMB) are as follows: - 2023: 1,076 - 2024: 1,710 - 2025E: 2,365 - 2026E: 3,331 - 2027E: 5,459 - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 40.2% for 2023, 58.9% for 2024, 38.3% for 2025, 40.9% for 2026, and 63.9% for 2027 [3][13]. - The net profit (loss) is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 1,511 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 398 million by 2027 [3][13]. - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the net profit forecast for 2027, increasing by over 60% due to optimistic projections for Taitasip's market performance [7]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of the company at approximately RMB 33,799 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 66.00 [9]. - The projected free cash flow is expected to turn positive by 2026, with a forecast of RMB 865 million [9]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 225.69% [6]. - The 52-week high and low for the stock are HKD 47.00 and HKD 10.62, respectively [6]. Analyst Coverage - The report is authored by analysts from BOCOM International, with contact details provided for further inquiries [7].