Industry Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the pharmaceutical industry, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [1][24]. Core Insights - Continuous policy support for innovative drugs is highlighted, with a focus on the AI+ healthcare theme and opportunities for rebound in oversold sectors. The report emphasizes the potential for significant recovery in the sector due to favorable policies and historical low valuations [4][5]. - Recent policy drafts aim to enhance the pricing mechanism for drugs and support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, which is expected to improve market sentiment and investment opportunities [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 3.7% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.7% during the week of February 19-26, 2025, outperforming the broader market. Notable sub-sector performances included biotechnology (+10.5%) and healthcare equipment (+8.4%) [4][9]. Policy Developments - Key measures from the drafts include the establishment of an investment fund for innovative drugs, multi-tiered pricing, and a diverse payment system to enhance market access and pricing stability for innovative drugs [5][6]. - The introduction of a "Category C" directory for high-priced innovative drugs aims to facilitate negotiations between insurance and commercial health sectors, potentially bringing in over 1.75 trillion yuan in funding [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from upcoming policy changes, including Kangfang Biopharma, Innovent Biologics, Legend Biotech, and others with clear growth trajectories and valuation recovery potential [4][5]. - It also suggests monitoring the AI+ healthcare trend, particularly companies with clear data entry advantages and defined application scenarios [4]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation summary for various companies, with many rated as "Buy" and showing significant potential upside based on target prices compared to current prices. For instance, AstraZeneca is rated "Buy" with a target price of $93.30, while its current price is $75.40, indicating a potential upside of 23.5% [3][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies within the consumer sector, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [3]. Core Insights - The consumer market in 2025 is showing new trends, with significant growth in sports, traditional cultural IP, electronics, and service consumption, particularly in lower-tier markets [1][2]. - Sports consumption is on the rise, with sales in sports venues and fitness services increasing by 135% and 224.1% year-on-year, respectively, highlighting a strong demand for health and fitness [2]. - Traditional cultural elements are gaining traction, with products like old-style gold jewelry seeing sales increases of 152% in Beijing, 75% in Xi'an, and 143% in Chengdu, indicating a blend of culture and modern consumption [2]. - Policy-driven upgrades in electronics are evident, with sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment rising by 166.4% and communications equipment by 181.9% during the Spring Festival, suggesting a robust growth trajectory for smart products [2]. - Service consumption is becoming a key growth driver, with average daily sales in related industries increasing by 10.8% year-on-year, and service consumption specifically rising by 12.3%, outpacing goods consumption [2]. Summary by Sections Sports Consumption - The report highlights a significant increase in consumer focus on sports and health, with notable sales growth in lower-tier cities, indicating a broadening market for sports-related products [2]. Traditional Culture and IP - The integration of traditional cultural elements into consumer products is emphasized, with successful examples like the animated film "Nezha 2," which grossed over 12 billion yuan, showcasing the potential for cultural exports [2]. Electronics and Policy Impact - The report notes that government policies are effectively driving the upgrade of electronic products, with substantial sales growth in various categories during promotional events [2]. Service Consumption - Service sectors are identified as crucial for economic growth, with a notable increase in consumer spending during key holiday periods, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards services [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking industry, with expectations of a "moderately loose" monetary policy and "more proactive" fiscal policy supporting credit demand recovery in 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - In January 2025, new RMB loans reached 5.13 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 4.5-5.0 trillion yuan, marking the highest level for the same period in history, primarily driven by strong corporate credit performance [1][2]. - New social financing (社融) in January 2025 was 7.06 trillion yuan, also above the market expectation of 6-7 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 583.3 billion yuan, with significant contributions from RMB loans and government bonds [1][2]. - The report highlights a robust performance in corporate credit, with new medium to long-term loans amounting to 3.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150 billion yuan, and short-term loans increasing by 1.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280 billion yuan [1][2]. Summary by Sections New Loans and Social Financing - January 2025 saw new RMB loans of 5.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 210 billion yuan, and new social financing of 7.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 583.3 billion yuan [1][2]. - The increase in new loans was primarily due to strong corporate credit, with medium to long-term loans contributing significantly [1][2]. Corporate and Household Credit - Corporate medium to long-term loans were 3.46 trillion yuan, while short-term loans were 1.74 trillion yuan, indicating a strong demand for credit from businesses [1][2]. - Household credit showed signs of recovery, with new medium to long-term loans at 493.5 billion yuan, although this was a decrease compared to the previous year [1][2]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth was reported at 0.4%, maintaining positive growth, while M2 growth slightly decreased to 7.0% [5][6]. - The balance of social financing grew at a rate of 8.0%, remaining stable compared to previous months [5][6]. Deposits - New RMB deposits in January 2025 were 4.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 300 billion yuan but corporate deposits decreasing significantly [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for King’s Ray Bio (1548 HK) with a target price of HKD 28.75, indicating a potential upside of 140% from the current price of HKD 11.98 [2][3]. Core Insights - King’s Ray Bio is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit in 2024, primarily driven by a one-time unrealized gain of approximately USD 3.2 billion from the sale of Legend Biotech, which exceeds previous estimates of USD 2-3 billion [1]. - The company is projected to fully enter the profit zone starting in 2024, with a recovery in the GCT (Gene Cell Therapy) business expected to continue through 2025-2026, leading to a revenue growth rate of around 20% for non-cellular business [1]. - The improvement in the company's fundamentals, coupled with a recovery in investor sentiment, is anticipated to drive valuation recovery, as geopolitical factors and favorable policies for innovative drug payments are expected to enhance investment sentiment in the CXO sector [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report highlights that the adjusted net profit for non-cellular business in 2024 will remain stable compared to 2023, with no significant changes expected [1]. - The tax loss from Legend Biotech prior to its merger will be accounted for in non-continuing operations, while post-merger, it will be accounted for using the equity method [1]. Market Outlook - The report notes a strong recovery trend in new orders for protein/antibody drugs and GCT, with first-half 2024 new orders recovering to 13 and 24 respectively, compared to 10 and 21 in the first half of 2023 [1]. - The sentiment in the market is improving, with the company's stock price rising 34% from its low this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Medical Index and the Hang Seng Index, both of which increased by 19% [1].

交银国际研究 行业更新 互联网及教育行业 DeepSeek 接入微信，AI+应用或已经具备大规模落地条件 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 2/24 6/24 10/24 2/25 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5330 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5332 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5334 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 2025 年 2 月 17 日 2 月 13 日、15 日，腾讯先后宣布了腾讯元宝 app 接入 DeepSeek、微信 AI ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 电池行业 动力电池行业集中度提升，关注固态电池研发进展 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 宁德时代 | 300750 CH | 买入 | 314.11 | 270.77 | 16.529 | 17.999 | 16.4 | 15.0 | 4.17 | 3.52 | NA | | 亿纬锂能 | 300014 CH | 买入 | 56.51 | 44.42 | 2.779 | 3.502 | 16.0 | 1 ...

Market Strategy - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rally led by technology stocks, with a focus on dividend assets for potential catch-up opportunities [2][3] - AI applications are accelerating, supported by policy initiatives, which has boosted market sentiment [4][5] - The Hang Seng Index is approaching 23,000 points, indicating a significant recovery in valuations, particularly in the tech sector [4][5] AI Application and Investment Opportunities - The AI narrative is deepening within industries, with major companies like Alibaba and Apple collaborating to enhance AI applications [4][6] - The report suggests a tactical shift towards dividend assets as the market begins to refocus on fundamental factors after a period of rapid gains [4][5] - There is a notable valuation gap between growth sectors, particularly tech, and dividend-paying sectors, which may present investment opportunities [4][5] AI Industry Chain Investment Layout - Investors are advised to focus on both the foundational and application layers of the AI industry chain, as demand for computing power is expected to drive infrastructure investments [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling traffic entry points in the AI era, which will enhance market power for leading companies [9][10] Company Capital Expenditure Trends - Major internet companies in China are expected to significantly increase their capital expenditures in 2025, with Alibaba projected to spend 539 billion RMB and Tencent 425 billion RMB [11] - The report notes a recovery in capital expenditures following a period of contraction, driven by the rapid evolution of AI technologies [11][12] Market Performance Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index leading global indices [26][27] - The report indicates that the valuation recovery of the Hang Seng Index is nearing levels seen during previous market rallies, with risk premiums returning to historical averages [26][27] - Southbound capital flows continue to support the market, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, while financial and real estate sectors have seen net outflows [75]

交银国际研究 行业更新 房地产行业月报 淡季效应致销售下行，低基数下反弹可期 行业与大盘一年趋势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 行业表现 恒生指数 FactSet 2/24 6/24 10/24 谢骐聪, CFA, FRM philip.tse@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1815 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $4.60, indicating a potential upside of 73.6% from the current price of $2.65 [1][2][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to exceed expectations in Q4 2024, with projected collections of RMB 2.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68%, driven by better-than-expected renewal rates and ROI from new customer acquisition [6]. - Revenue for Q4 2024 is anticipated to reach RMB 1.36 billion, reflecting a 78% year-on-year growth, with the K12 segment expected to maintain over 100% growth [6]. - The adjusted operating loss for Q4 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 150 million, an improvement from previous expectations of RMB 280 million, due to effective channel operation strategies and cost efficiency [6]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue projections for 2024 have been updated to RMB 4,520 million, a 1.2% increase from previous estimates, with a growth rate of 52.7% [5]. - The forecast for collections in 2024 has been raised to RMB 5,602 million, reflecting a 3.9% increase, with a growth rate of 67.8% [5]. - Adjusted operating loss for 2024 is revised to RMB 1,144 million, showing a 9.6% improvement from earlier forecasts [5]. Performance Metrics - The company is expected to achieve a gross profit of RMB 3,077 million in 2024, with a gross margin of 68.1% [5]. - The adjusted net loss for 2024 is projected at RMB 1,012 million, with an adjusted net margin of -22.4% [5]. - The company aims for a strategic focus on healthy growth, enhancing service quality, and optimizing customer acquisition efficiency [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral [1][6][38] Core Views - The stock price may have fully reflected the upside potential, leading to the downgrade in rating. Despite a positive outlook on the domestic substitution trend in wafer foundry and the company's leading position in the industry, investors should consider high capital expenditures, downstream demand uncertainties, and increased competition in mature processes [6][7][9] - The target price is raised to HKD 48, reflecting a 2.25x price-to-book ratio for 2025, accounting for improved market liquidity and a reassessment of technology stocks [6][9][12] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: USD 6,322 million - 2024: USD 8,030 million - 2025E: USD 9,414 million (up from previous estimate of USD 9,094 million) - 2026E: USD 10,291 million - 2027E: USD 11,238 million [5][20][40] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: USD 903 million - 2024: USD 493 million - 2025E: USD 1,055 million - 2026E: USD 1,348 million - 2027E: USD 1,778 million [5][20][40] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 20.9% in 2025, up from 20.1% previously estimated [20][40] Market Performance - The stock has increased approximately 200% since the second half of 2024, driven by improved fundamentals and increased market liquidity [6][7][9] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 287,213 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 47.95 and a low of HKD 14.02 [3][6] Capital Expenditure - The company has guided for capital expenditures of USD 7.33 billion in 2024, with expectations to maintain similar levels in 2025, which is higher than previous market expectations [6][7][9] - The capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is projected to remain high, indicating a focus on expansion despite potential impacts on gross margins [6][7][9] Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-book ratio is currently at 2.2x, which is significantly above the historical average of 1.0x, indicating a high valuation relative to its peers [6][9][12] - The relative premium of the A-shares over H-shares is currently at 142%, which is at the historical lower bound compared to an average of 199% [6][9][19]