Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the internet industry, indicating an attractive outlook compared to the benchmark index [19]. Core Insights - E-commerce sales in October and November showed a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, with expectations for continued policy support to boost the sector [1]. - November saw a decline of 2.7% in adjusted physical e-commerce sales, primarily due to the timing of promotional sales [1]. - The report highlights that the "old-for-new" subsidy program significantly boosted appliance sales by 22% in November, while furniture sales also accelerated to double-digit growth of 11% [1][10]. - The express delivery business volume increased by 15% year-on-year in November, driven by promotional activities and the integration of e-commerce with local agricultural products [13]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Platforms - Alibaba's Taotian is expected to see stable CMR growth due to the full quarter contribution from technology service fees and product penetration [2]. - Pinduoduo's GMV growth is anticipated to outpace the market, although the recent policy on commission rates may have a short-term impact [2]. - JD's growth in electrical categories is closely linked to national subsidy policies, which are expected to expand [2]. - Kuaishou's e-commerce revenue growth is outpacing GMV, indicating a shift in product structure that enhances commission rates [2]. Overseas Business Development - Alibaba's overseas business, "Taobao Overseas," is projected to exceed $20 billion in GMV for 2024, benefiting from targeted user services and global shipping initiatives [2]. - TEMU has opened to all local sellers in the U.S., and its Thailand site has successfully registered, while operations in Vietnam are temporarily halted for compliance [2]. Investment Implications - Current price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 are projected at 9.9x for Alibaba, 8.4x for JD, 7.1x for Pinduoduo, and 8.7x for Kuaishou [3]. - Revenue growth for e-commerce platforms is expected to range between 8-14% in 2025, with Alibaba's growth driven by GMV recovery and improved monetization rates [3]. Valuation Overview - The report provides a detailed valuation table for various companies, indicating "Buy" ratings for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD, and Kuaishou, with target prices significantly above current prices [4].

Industry Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the pharmaceutical industry, indicating an attractive outlook compared to the benchmark index [1]. Core Insights - The results of the tenth batch of centralized procurement were announced, with significant price reductions but limited impact on listed pharmaceutical companies. The procurement will be implemented starting April 2025, involving 62 successful products from 234 companies, with an average of over 6 companies winning bids per product [1][2]. - The report highlights that the impact on the overall revenue of covered prescription drug companies is expected to be limited, with the most significant pressure on Shiyao's Doxorubicin Liposome Injection, which will see a 97% price drop, potentially affecting revenue by 1 to 1.5 billion RMB [2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of "tenglong huan niao" (replacing old with new), which continues to favor the inclusion of innovative drugs in the medical insurance system, allowing for cost savings for patients and freeing up funds for new drug support [2]. Summary by Sections Procurement Results - The tenth batch of centralized procurement involved 439 companies and 778 products, with an average of 12.5 companies per product, marking the highest participation in history [1]. - The average price reduction across the successful products is significant, with the highest reduction reaching 97% for certain drugs [2]. Company Impact - The report notes that for most covered prescription drug companies, the impact on revenue from the procurement is expected to be minimal, except for specific products like Doxorubicin Liposome Injection [2]. - The report provides a detailed valuation summary for various companies, with several rated as "Buy" and a few as "Neutral" [3]. Valuation Overview - The report includes a valuation table for various pharmaceutical companies, indicating target prices and expected returns, with several companies showing significant potential upside [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 77.36, indicating a potential upside of 48.9% from the current price of HKD 51.95 [1][4][3]. Core Insights - The company's automotive gross margin exceeded expectations in Q3, with a revenue of RMB 10.1 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.5%, and vehicle sales of 46,000 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 54.0% [1][2]. - The collaboration revenue with Volkswagen continues to contribute positively, while service and other revenues remained stable at RMB 1.31 billion [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 15.3%, up 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with automotive gross margin at 8.6%, showing a recovery of 2.2 percentage points [1][2]. - The company has maintained effective cost control, with R&D and selling expenses increasing slightly by 11.3% and 3.8% respectively, while the proportion of these expenses to revenue decreased [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the company expects total revenue to be between RMB 15.3 billion and RMB 16.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 17.2% to 24.1% [2]. - Vehicle delivery volume is projected to be between 87,000 and 91,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 44.6% to 51.3% [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles has decreased to RMB 189,000, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-priced models like M03 [2]. - The company anticipates continued improvement in gross margins due to economies of scale and optimized Bill of Materials (BOM) costs, with a 25% reduction in BOM costs for the P7+ model [2][3]. Financial Data Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 30.68 billion in 2023, RMB 39.63 billion in 2024, RMB 61.23 billion in 2025, and RMB 67.67 billion in 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14.2%, 29.2%, 54.5%, and 10.5% [7][14]. - The company is expected to report a net loss of RMB 10.38 billion in 2023, narrowing to RMB 4.85 billion in 2024, and further to RMB 2.36 billion in 2025 [7][14]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from RMB -5.96 in 2023 to RMB -2.78 in 2024, and RMB -1.36 in 2025 [7][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the profitability prospects of the new energy vehicle insurance sector, indicating a favorable investment rating [3][7]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise rapidly, with new energy vehicle insurance becoming a major driver of growth in the auto insurance market. It is projected that by 2030, the insurance premiums for new energy vehicles will approach 500 billion RMB, accounting for 38% of the total auto insurance premiums [3][7][24]. - Despite the growth potential, new energy vehicle insurance is currently in a state of underwriting loss, making it challenging to balance growth and profitability. The higher average premiums for new energy vehicles are offset by higher claims rates, leading to underwriting losses [3][7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Growth of New Energy Vehicle Insurance - New energy vehicle insurance is expected to account for nearly 40% of total auto insurance premiums by 2030, driven by the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [7][16]. - The average premium for new energy vehicle insurance is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, with 2023 figures showing an average premium of 4,003 RMB for new energy vehicles compared to 2,316 RMB for fuel vehicles [16][18]. 2. Underwriting Losses in New Energy Vehicle Insurance - New energy vehicle insurance is currently experiencing underwriting losses due to high claims rates, which are attributed to both a high accident rate and high average claim amounts [30][31]. - The accident rate for new energy vehicles is higher than that of traditional vehicles, with home-use new energy vehicles having an accident rate of 30%, compared to 19% for fuel vehicles [30]. 3. Entry of New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers into Insurance Market - New energy vehicle manufacturers have unique advantages in developing insurance businesses, such as data advantages and service entry points, but they also face challenges in terms of expertise and scale [8][33]. - Companies like Tesla have entered the insurance market, leveraging their data capabilities to offer competitive pricing [41][42]. 4. Car Technology's Role in New Energy Vehicle Insurance - Car Technology (CCG US) is strategically positioned to connect new energy vehicle manufacturers with insurance companies, facilitating the entry into the new energy vehicle insurance market [59][60]. - The company has established partnerships with over 10 major new energy vehicle manufacturers, providing digital insurance solutions and embedding insurance functions into vehicle apps [65].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from improved risk indicators and an acceleration in loan facilitation growth, with a projected 11% quarter-on-quarter profit growth in Q4 2024 [3][2]. - The target price has been raised from $6.30 to $7.20, indicating a potential upside of 19.4% [3][10]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 624 million RMB, marking a 10% year-on-year increase and a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase [1][2]. - The company's net income for Q3 2024 grew by 2.5% year-on-year and 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, while expenses increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Loan Facilitation Growth - Loan facilitation in Q3 2024 grew by 1.8% year-on-year, with domestic and international markets growing by 0.8% and 22% respectively [2]. - The company maintains its annual guidance for loan facilitation growth at 5-10% for the domestic market and 20-40% for the international market [2]. International Business Expansion - The international business accounted for 5.2% of loan facilitation in Q3 2024, with revenue contribution from international operations rising to 19.4%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company aims for international business to represent 50% of total revenue by 2030 [2]. Risk Indicators - The 90-day delinquency rate improved to 2.5%, a decrease of 15 basis points quarter-on-quarter, while the collection rate increased to 88.5%, up 50 basis points [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Dada Group (DADA US) with a target price of $1.40, indicating a potential downside of 10.8% from the current price of $1.57 [4][9]. Core Insights - Dada Group's business adjustments are expected to have a short-term impact, but the performance in JD's ecosystem is strong, laying a foundation for long-term growth [3]. - In Q3 2024, Dada Group reported revenues of 2.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 7%, which was better than market expectations [1][7]. - The adjusted net loss for the quarter was 59 million RMB, corresponding to a loss rate of 2%, which was also better than market forecasts [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Performance - Dada Group's revenue for Q3 2024 was 2.4 billion RMB, down 7% year-on-year but above expectations [1][7]. - Dada Express revenue increased by 39% due to a rise in same-city delivery orders from chain brands [1][2]. - JD's instant delivery revenue fell by 40% due to a decline in advertising revenue and reduced fulfillment service income [1][2]. Operational Highlights - JD's instant delivery service saw a 100%+ year-on-year increase in monthly active users and order volume [2]. - The number of instant delivery stores increased by over 70% year-on-year to more than 600,000 [2]. - Dada Express completed orders and gross revenue grew by 36% and 33% year-on-year, respectively, due to improved pricing competitiveness [2]. Outlook and Valuation - The report anticipates that adjustments in JD's instant delivery business will continue until 2025, with uncertainties in revenue from advertising monetization [3]. - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards primarily due to uncertainties in advertising monetization, leading to an expected loss of 430 million RMB and 245 million RMB for those years [3][11]. - The target price has been revised down to $1.40 from $1.50, maintaining a Neutral rating [3][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Neutral" [4][3]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of the fiscal year 2025, with a revenue drop of 7.9% year-on-year to 13.05 billion RMB, slightly below market expectations. The gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 41.1% due to increased discount rates and a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale channels [1][3]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with an interim dividend of 0.14 RMB per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 99.4%, and an average payout ratio exceeding 100% over the past three years [1][3]. - The total number of stores decreased by over 300, with 5,813 stores in operation by the end of the first half of fiscal year 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 396 stores. However, the quality of membership continues to improve, with a total membership of 81 million, reflecting a 10.8% year-on-year growth [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its brand partnerships to capture future growth potential, including collaborations with high-end brands in the trail running segment and digital operation platforms [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending February 29, 2025, the company is projected to have a revenue of 26.58 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to be 1.472 billion RMB, down 33.4% year-on-year [6][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.24 RMB, with a significant adjustment of -42.2% from previous forecasts [6][10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 10.3 times for 2025, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [6][10].

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the internet industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The domestic mobile game market remained stable in October, with Tencent's revenue showing resilience and NetEase's revenue decline narrowing [1][5] - Tencent's domestic mobile game revenue increased by 1.1 billion CNY (+13% YoY), while NetEase's domestic revenue decreased by 400 million CNY (-10% YoY) [2][12] - The report highlights the performance of new games and the impact of high base figures from previous years on revenue trends [2][8] Summary by Relevant Sections October Mobile Game Performance - The total revenue of top mobile games tracked in October showed a slight decline of 1% YoY and 2% MoM, primarily due to high base figures from games like "逆水寒" and "崩坏：星穹铁道" [5][6] - Tencent and NetEase had 5 and 3 titles respectively in the top ten revenue rankings, with "无尽冬日" achieving a revenue of approximately 750 million CNY in October [1][5] Investment Implications - Tencent (700HK/Buy, current price corresponding to 17x 2024 P/E) saw a 15% YoY increase in mobile game revenue, with expectations for continued growth in Q3 and Q4 [3][22] - NetEase (NTES US/Buy, current price corresponding to 11x 2024 P/E) experienced a 9% YoY decline in mobile game revenue, but the decline rate has significantly narrowed compared to Q3 [3][22] Game Launches and Regulatory Environment - October saw no major new game launches, but several new titles were released in Q3, with NetEase's "炉石传说" leading in performance [2][8] - A total of 113 domestic and 15 imported game licenses were issued in October, indicating a normalization in the regulatory environment [19][20] Company Valuations - Key gaming companies are rated as follows: Tencent at 17.1x 2024E P/E, NetEase at 11.4x 2024E P/E, and others showing varying valuations [24][25]

Group 1: Election Timeline - The 2024 U.S. presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024, with preliminary results expected to start coming in after 7 PM EST on the same day[2] - Historically, most election results are announced on election night, except for the 2020 election, which was delayed due to a high number of mail-in ballots[3] - If no candidate secures 270 electoral votes, the election outcome may be decided by Congress in January 2025[3] Group 2: Electoral Votes Distribution - The Democratic Party has a solid base in 22 states with a total of 226 electoral votes, while the Republican Party has a stronghold in 27 states totaling 219 electoral votes[11] - A total of 538 electoral votes are available, with 93 votes from swing states being crucial for reaching the 270-vote threshold needed to win[11] Group 3: Swing States Analysis - Key swing states include Pennsylvania (19 votes), Georgia (16 votes), Michigan (15 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Arizona (11 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), and Nevada (6 votes)[11] - Current polling shows Trump leading in Arizona (+3%) and Georgia (+1%), while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin[14] Group 4: Early Voting Trends - Early voting is lower in 2024 compared to 2020, with significant early voting in North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, where Republicans are leading[25] - In contrast, early voting in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania shows Democratic leads, with margins of +8%, +3%, and +24% respectively[25] Group 5: Importance of Key States - Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are critical for the Democrats, as losing any of these states could lead to a Republican victory despite winning other states[27] - Pennsylvania is particularly significant, having historically leaned Democratic except for the 2016 election, and is currently highly competitive[29]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 379.22, implying a 28.5% upside from the current price of HKD 295.00 [1][2][6] Core Views - 3Q24 gross margin exceeded expectations at 21.9%, up 3.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by improved auto business margin due to lower lithium carbonate prices, economies of scale, and DMI 5.0 model ramp-up [1] - 3Q24 net profit rose 11.5% YoY and 28.1% QoQ to RMB 11.6 billion, with revenue up 24.0% YoY and 14.2% QoQ to RMB 201.1 billion [1] - Operating expenses surged QoQ, with sales/management/R&D expenses up 27.8%/20.1%/52.0% respectively, hitting record highs due to increased spending on premium models and smart features [1] - 4Q24 sales expected to rise to 1.3-1.5 million units (vs 1.13 million in 3Q24) on seasonal strength and DMI 5.0 model ramp-up, with further margin improvement potential from economies of scale [2] - Premium models and exports yet to contribute meaningfully, with Denza Z9 GT starting deliveries in September and Fangchengbao's Leopard 8 not yet launched [2] - Overseas sales impacted by EU tariffs in 3Q24, but new market entries (Vietnam, Pakistan, Tunisia) and upcoming overseas plant production expected to boost export volumes [2] Financial Forecasts - 2024-26E net profit forecasts raised by 14%/19.4%/23.3% to reflect higher sales volume and margin improvement from premium models and exports [2] - 2024E revenue forecast at RMB 764.8 billion (+27.0% YoY), with net profit of RMB 41.1 billion (+36.9% YoY) [3] - 2025E revenue forecast at RMB 905.4 billion (+18.4% YoY), with net profit of RMB 52.4 billion (+27.4% YoY) [3] - 2026E revenue forecast at RMB 1,056.9 billion (+16.7% YoY), with net profit of RMB 64.5 billion (+23.1% YoY) [3] - Gross margin expected to improve from 20.5% in 2024E to 21.4% in 2026E, with net margin rising from 5.4% to 6.1% over the same period [8] Industry Context - BYD maintains strong position in sub-RMB 200k passenger vehicle market with vertical supply chain and high-margin advantages [2] - Increasing focus on premium models (Denza, Fangchengbao) and smart features through partnerships (e.g., Huawei) [2] - Overseas expansion ongoing with new market entries and local production, though near-term headwinds from EU tariffs [2]