Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an upgraded target price of HKD 19.3 for the Hong Kong stock and RMB 56.7 for the A-share, indicating potential upside of 22% and 26% respectively [7][8]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing an upward trend in the semiconductor fundamentals, with a projected 14% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth for Q3 and a gross margin target of 19%, up 5.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. This growth is driven by local demand, optimization of product mix, and favorable pricing [7][8]. - The second quarter performance exceeded market expectations, with a 9% quarter-over-quarter and 22% year-over-year revenue increase. The company anticipates a 34% year-over-year revenue growth for Q3 [7][11]. - The company’s 12-inch capacity is in high demand, with an expected increase of approximately 60,000 wafers per month by year-end, surpassing previous plans [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Q2 2024 revenue reached USD 1.901 billion, a 22% increase year-over-year and a 9% increase quarter-over-quarter. Gross profit was USD 265 million, with a gross margin of 13.9% [11]. - The company reported a net profit of USD 165 million in Q2, a 59% decline year-over-year but a 129% increase quarter-over-quarter [11]. - For 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be USD 7.875 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 34% [9][13]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-book ratio for the Hong Kong stock is 0.8x, and for the A-share, it is 2.7x, both indicating potential for upward movement compared to historical averages [7][18]. - The report adjusts the EBITDA forecasts for 2024 and 2025, reflecting a more optimistic outlook based on recent performance and guidance [8][13]. Market Expectations - The market expects the company to maintain a strong performance in the second half of the year, with overall sales anticipated to exceed the first half, leading to a revenue growth rate higher than the industry average [7][8].

风险提示：美联储未及时对经济走弱做出反应而引起经济衰退，提早 降息导致通胀率居高不下和经济过热，地缘政治风险推升通胀。 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

浦银国际研究 中国消费行业 首次覆盖 2024 年 7 月 8 日 超配 首次覆盖 尽管短期内,中国酒店业面临着高基数、消费理性化以及恶劣天气影响的冲击,但长期来看随着 消费者境内游热情高涨以及差旅需求恢复,中国酒店市场有望持续恢复。我们基于两极化的下沉 市场连锁化率提升和结构升级的市场整合趋势,认为酒店品牌的品牌力、会员粘性和轻资产运营 能力是评价酒店集团的主要标准。我们首次覆盖中国酒店行业,给予"超配"评级。首次覆盖给 予亚朵集团(ATAT.US)、华住集团(1179.HK/HTHT.US)"买入"评级,给予锦江酒店(600754.CH) 和首旅酒店(600258.CH)"持有"评级。 林闻嘉(首席消费分析师) richard_lin@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6433 桑若楠,CFA(消费分析师) serena_sang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6439 欢迎关注 浦银国际研究 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制,请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 目 求 | | |---------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $23 7, implying a potential upside of 22 2% from the current price of $19 4 [2][3] Core Views - Luckin Coffee has become the largest chain coffee brand in China, surpassing Starbucks in both store count and order volume, driven by strong brand marketing, product innovation, and affordable pricing [3] - The company has successfully transformed from a loss-making, credibility-damaged company to a profitable and rapidly expanding brand, focusing on product innovation, youth-oriented marketing, and cost-effective strategies [3] - Luckin Coffee's future growth potential lies in its ability to consolidate the market, expand into lower-tier cities, and explore overseas markets, despite short-term pressure on profitability due to intense competition [3] Industry Overview - The Chinese coffee market has grown significantly, with the overall market size reaching RMB 82 8 billion in 2023, and per capita coffee consumption reaching RMB 58 8 [12] - Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee shops have become the primary channel for coffee consumption in China, contributing 66 5% of the total retail coffee market revenue in 2023, far exceeding instant coffee and RTD coffee [14] - The rise of RTD coffee shops in China is attributed to urbanization, the influence of Western lifestyles, the role of social media, and the addictive nature of coffee [15] Luckin Coffee's Strategy - Luckin Coffee has disrupted the traditional coffee market by offering a wide variety of products at affordable prices, making RTD coffee more accessible to the general public [3] - The company has focused on product innovation, such as the introduction of coconut latte and sauce-flavored latte, which have become viral hits on social media [3][25] - Luckin Coffee has adopted a franchise model to expand into lower-tier cities, with 5,620 franchise stores accounting for 34 6% of its total store count by the end of 2023 [35] Market Competition - Starbucks and Luckin Coffee have been the key players driving the development of the Chinese RTD coffee market, with Starbucks establishing the premium image of RTD coffee and Luckin Coffee making it more accessible to the masses [16] - The Chinese coffee market is becoming more segmented, with the emergence of both mass-market and premium coffee brands catering to different consumer needs [44] - Starbucks' market share in China has been declining since 2017, as new players like Luckin Coffee and other mass-market brands have gained traction [47] Future Growth Potential - The penetration rate of coffee in lower-tier cities is expected to continue rising, driven by increasing consumer acceptance, economic development, and the return of young people from higher-tier cities [35] - The high-tier cities are experiencing a trend of consumption stratification, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive and demanding higher quality and more diverse coffee products [39] - The Chinese coffee market is expected to continue growing, with the RTD coffee market projected to reach RMB 52 5 billion by 2026, driven by the expansion of mass-market brands and the rise of premium coffee brands [38] Financial Performance - Luckin Coffee's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 24 9 billion in 2023 to RMB 52 5 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 2 8 billion to RMB 5 1 billion over the same period [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 55%, with operating margin improving from 12 1% in 2023 to 11 9% in 2026 [8] - Luckin Coffee's valuation is considered attractive compared to international coffee chains and large-scale Chinese restaurant chains, with potential for further upside if the company relists on a major stock exchange [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 58 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 84% from the current price of 31.5 HKD [2][4][5]. Core Insights - The recent data for CM310 (treatment for moderate to severe atopic dermatitis) and CMG901 (treatment for gastric cancer) align with historical trends and expectations, showing stable and positive results [2][3]. - CM310 demonstrates superior efficacy compared to Dupixent, with a 52-week EASI-75 response rate of 92.5% and a significant reduction in patient-reported outcomes [3]. - CMG901 shows promising results in gastric cancer, with an overall objective response rate (ORR) of 35% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 70% in a cohort of patients with high CLDN18.2 expression [3]. Summary by Sections CM310 Efficacy Data - CM310's 52-week data shows a lower rate of drug resistance compared to Dupixent, with serious adverse events at 5.1% and severe treatment-emergent adverse events at 2.9% [3]. - The treatment group exhibited a 67.3% rate of achieving a significant reduction in daily pain scores [3]. CMG901 Clinical Data - The updated 1b phase data for CMG901 indicates an ORR of 35% and a DCR of 70%, with the 2.2 mg/kg dose group achieving an ORR of 48% [3]. - The median progression-free survival (mPFS) is reported at 4.8 months, and median overall survival (mOS) at 11.8 months [3]. Future Catalysts - Key upcoming catalysts include the expected approval of CM310 for adult atopic dermatitis by the end of 2024 and the submission for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps in mid-2024 [3]. - Additional important data readouts are anticipated for CM326 and CM313 in 2024 [3].

浦银国际研究 行业追踪 | 医药行业 ASCO 2024：重点公司简要点评（一） 阳景 浦 首席医药分析师 5 月 23日下午（美国东部时间），一年一度的美国肿瘤年会（ASCO）披 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 银 露了此次大会投稿接收的摘要内容。对于备受关注的康方生物（9926.HK， (852) 2808 6434 国 际 “买入”评级）AK112 三期 HARMONi-A 数据（EGFR 突变 NSCLC），我 们认为 ORR和 mPFS数字略低于预期，不过首次披露的 PFS获益 HR好 胡泽宇 CFA 于已上市药物（尤其是在 T790M突变细分人群），若后续 OS数据优秀， 医药分析师 公司股价有望迎来反弹。此外，科伦博泰（未覆盖）SKB264 三期 3L+ ryan_hu@spdbi.com TNBC 数据优异，有同类最佳的潜力；二期 1L NSCLC 数据好于国外同类 (852) 2808 6446 竞争对手。 2024年5月24日  康方生物（9926.HK；评级“买入”）AK112三期EGFR突变 NSCLC适 行 应症 mPFS和 ORR数字略低于预期，但首次披露的 PFS获益 ...

科技行业 | 行业追踪 全球智能手机 1Q24 出货量增速超预期， 沈岱 浦 略微上调 2024 年智能手机出货量预测 首席科技分析师 银 tony_shen@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6435 际 全球智能手机 1Q24 出货量略优于我们此前预期，略微上调 2024 马智焱 年出货量增速预期至 4.9%。根据 IDC 最新公布的数据，1Q24 全 科技分析师 球智能手机出货量 3.0 亿部，环比下降7%，同比增长12%。今年 ivy_ma@spdbi.com (852) 2809 0300 一季度出货量同比增速较去年四季度的 8%继续上扬，超出我们 此前预测。其中，中东非的一季度出货量同比增长30%，增长非 黄佳琦 行 常强劲，这是传音一季度智能手机出货量增长动能之一。拉美地 科技分析师 业 区出货量也表现亮眼，同比增长 23%。印度、亚洲其他地区、欧 sia_huang@spdbi.com 追 洲等三个地区的出货量都增长强劲，实现了两位数的同比增长。 (852) 2809 0355 踪 北美地区出货量同比增速开始走弱，同比下降 4%。 2024年5月20日 因为全球智能手机一季度较强劲 ...

策略月报 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 新兴市场或吸引全球资金布局。 4 月 4 日至 5 月 1 日，发达市场转 为净流出 134 亿美元，新兴市场净流出 17 亿美元。期间，新兴市场 股价表现跑赢发达市场 2%（图表 2-3）。我们预期，全球资金短期有 望重新从发达市场流入新兴市场，尤其是流向那些估值较低，拥挤度 较低、盈利预期持续改善的新兴市场国家或地区。 图表 14: 4 月南向资金净流入前 20 大个股 浦银国际研究 浦银国际月度资金流 浦银国际月度资金流：全球资金 仓位调整，中国会是目的地吗？ 2024 年 5 月 7 日 中国市场性价比凸显，外资出现回流的迹象。 根据 EPFR，4 月 4 日 至 5 月 1 日，无论是主动型还是被动型外资仍在净流出中国股市（图 表 4）。值得注意的是，4 月 25 日至 5 月 1 日，外资净流出的幅度明 显缩小，部分外资可能开始回流中国市场，尤其是港股市场（图表 5）。 5 月 2 日至 3 日，在南向资金休市的情况下，我们发现港股市场仍维 持强劲的上涨趋势，交易量也较大，反映港股 ...