上 市 公 司 基础化工 ——业绩不及预期，纤维规模持续扩张，超美斯贡献第二 成长曲线 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 649 | 483 | 1,135 | 1,366 | 1,577 | | 同比增长率（%） | 1.4 | 89.7 | 74.9 | 20.3 | 15.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 130 | 66 | 200 | 248 | 300 | | 同比增长率（%） | -15.3 | 41.1 | 53.3 | 24.2 | 21.1 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.58 | 0.30 | 0.89 | 1.10 | 1.34 | | 毛利率（%） | 37.7 | 31.2 | 35.8 | 36.7 | 38.0 | | ROE（%） | 9.7 | 4.8 | 13.3 | 14.7 | 15.9 | | 市盈率 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3875 | 1.65 | 6.24 | 2.91 | | 深证综指 | 2469 | 2.54 | 9.63 | 5.89 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 2.56 | 11.22 | 16.52 | | 中盘指数 | 2.63 | 12.61 | 17.62 | | 小盘指数 | 2.46 | 7.83 | 13.57 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | 元件Ⅱ | 10.09 | 32.61 | 80.19 | | 通信设备 | 9.25 | 47.41 | 100.31 | | 半导体 | 5.83 | 22.54 | 17.95 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 消费电子 | 5.79 | 26.14 | 29.14 | | ...

市公司 == > | The 2025 年 09 月 11 日 ST. N (首次评级) | 市场数据: 2025 年 09 月 11 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 22.05 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 24.88/9.60 | | 市净率 | 4.2 | | 股息率% (分红/股价) | | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | 7.916 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,875.31/12,979.89 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 水羊股份 (300740) 自有&CP 品牌双轮驱动，高端化全球化转型 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 4.237 | 2,500 | 4,630 | 4.996 | 5,382 | | 同比增长率(%) | -5.7 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 7.7 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 110 | 1 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《2025 中报综述：科技硬件、新能源、医 药、非银金融表现突出》 2025/08/31 《本周医药上涨 3.1%，医保局发布按病种 付费管理暂行办法和医保"双目录"初审 名单，司美在美获批治疗 MASH ——医药 行业周报（2025/8/11-2025/8/15）》 2025/08/17 证券分析师 仰佳佳 A0230522100005 yangjj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 仰佳佳 A0230522100005 yangjj@swsresearch.com 医药生物 联系人 仰佳佳 (8621)23297818× yangjj@swsresearch.com 2025 年 09 月 11 日 中国创新药出海势不可挡，再次强 调长期投资价值 看好 ——三重逻辑支撑创新药后续行情 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 事件：2025 年 9 月 10 日，《纽约时报》报道了一份政府草案，该草案建议限制美国制 药企业从中国购买实验性药 ...

E (7) 2025 年 09 月 11日 线传寸/分别有 相关研究 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hangiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 田昕 A0230124060003 tianxin@swsresearch.com 联系人 田听 (8621)23297818× tianxin@swsresearch.com 基本面逻辑确定，行业景气度向好 国防军工行业 2025 半年报总结 申万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 我们从业绩表现、盈利能力、营运指标等方面对军工行业 2025 年半年报进行了分析总 ● 结，并通过横向、纵向、静态和动态等视角阐明了军工行业在边际上仍在发生重要的变 化。 从收入利润表现来看：行业整体营收及业绩向好。各板块业绩略有分化，各产业链业绩 0 育序传导。2025H1，1）军工行业营收及归母净利润同比提升 11.39%/5.03%; 2) 分 装备板块来看，各板块 ...

上 市 公 司 美容护理 2025 年 09 月 11 日 水羊股份 (300740) ——自有&CP 品牌双轮驱动，高端化全球化转型 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,237 | 2,500 | 4,630 | 4,996 | 5,382 | | 同比增长率（%） | -5.7 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 7.7 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 110 | 123 | 258 | 331 | 398 | | 同比增长率（%） | -62.6 | 16.5 | 134.9 | 28.1 | 20.2 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.66 | 0.85 | 1.02 | | 毛利率（%） | 63.0 | 64.6 | 66.4 | 67.3 | 68.1 | | ROE（%） | 5.2 | 5.7 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 13.3 | | 市盈率 | 78 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is benefiting from favorable policies in the duty-free sector and is accelerating its offline retail transformation [1] - The retail market is undergoing structural adjustments, with new lifestyle categories emerging, while the outlet business shows resilience [7] - The company has optimized its store structure and operations, with a focus on multi-channel integration and supply chain reconstruction [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 10,165 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10.6% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 231 million yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 is reported at 38.76%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points compared to the previous year [7] - The company operates 79 large-scale retail stores as of the end of the first half of 2025, a decrease of one store from the end of 2024 [7] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from the company's various business segments in the first half of 2025 includes: department stores (2,008 million yuan), shopping centers (1,287 million yuan), outlets (1,188 million yuan), specialty stores (731 million yuan), and duty-free (144 million yuan) [7] - The duty-free business is expected to benefit from ongoing policy optimizations, with the company opening its first duty-free store [7] Investment Analysis - The company has established an efficient all-lifestyle retail system, with ongoing upgrades in department stores and shopping centers, and a strong performance in the outlet sector [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 73 for 2025, 44 for 2026, and 33 for 2027, indicating potential upside of 32% based on a PEG valuation of 2.0 [7]

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 国防军工 2025 年 09 月 11 日 中船防务 (00317) ——船周期上涨中继，关注集团解决同业竞争进展 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） -42% 158% 09/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 01/11 02/11 03/11 04/11 05/11 06/11 07/11 08/11 09/11 HSCEI 中船防务 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 11 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 14.91 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9260.25 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 18.10/7.42 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 210.75 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 592.07 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0966 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry for the first half of 2025 [3]. Core Viewpoints - The defense industry is experiencing a recovery in overall performance, with revenue and profit showing positive year-on-year growth [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the next-generation equipment and the rapid development of unmanned and counter-unmanned weaponry starting in 2025 [4][5]. - The industry is expected to benefit from increased global military trade and a favorable domestic demand environment, leading to a sustained growth trajectory [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Conditions - The military industry shows a recovery in its economic climate, with revenue and profit increasing year-on-year [18]. - In the first half of 2025, the military industry achieved revenue of 304.9 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.39% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 5.03% to 20.9 billion yuan [23][27]. 2. Revenue and Profit - Revenue performance varies across different segments, with the aviation sector contributing the most to both revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, accounting for 45% and 54% respectively [44][49]. - The maritime equipment sector showed significant growth, with a revenue increase of 132.0% year-on-year [50]. 3. Profitability Indicators - The overall profitability of the military industry has faced short-term pressure, with gross margin decreasing from 21.60% to 19.27% and net margin from 8.78% to 6.85% from the first half of 2021 to the first half of 2025 [28][31]. - The report indicates that profitability is expected to improve as product prices stabilize and economies of scale are realized [28]. 4. Operational Indicators - Operational indicators have shown stable growth, with inventory increasing by 13.43% year-on-year to 349.3 billion yuan, and contract liabilities rising by 21.48% to 224 billion yuan [32][36]. - The report highlights that the growth in operational metrics reflects a robust demand from downstream sectors, ensuring a positive outlook for future performance [32]. 5. Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies to focus on, including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, and others in both high-end and new-type combat capabilities [4][5].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the amount of share buybacks and repurchases, with a 102% month-on-month growth in planned buyback amounts in August 2025 [4][10][17] - In August 2025, the total amount of completed buybacks in A-shares reached approximately 285.3 billion, marking a 36% increase from July [4][10] - The report indicates that 86% of the funds used for buybacks were from self-owned or raised funds, while 14% came from special loans [4][10] Group 2 - The report notes a substantial increase in the planned repurchase amounts by controlling shareholders, with a rise of 110.1 billion compared to July, totaling 118 billion in new repurchase plans [4][17] - The top three companies with the largest planned repurchase amounts include Changjiang Power, Guizhou Moutai, and Huaxi Biological, with amounts ranging from 30 to 80 billion [17] - In the Hong Kong market, the total buyback amount reached approximately 114.6 billion HKD in August, a 14% increase from July, driven by stock price corrections [20] Group 3 - The report provides a list of companies worth noting for their buyback and repurchase announcements, considering their fundamentals, current valuations, and the proportion of buyback amounts [21][22] - The report includes specific details about companies such as Shengtun Mining and Beijing Keri, highlighting their buyback purposes and amounts [22][23] - The report emphasizes the potential for future expansion of structural monetary policy tools aimed at stabilizing the capital market, which could reshape the A-share ecosystem [7][8]