Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market experienced a day of volatility with long-term bonds declining more than short-term ones, indicating a bearish trend for bonds while the A-share market remains bullish [1][16] - The A-share market showed a slight decline with a trading volume of 2.35 trillion, suggesting a potential short-term adjustment phase despite the overall bullish trend [2][20] - The current equity risk premium (ERP) for the A-share market is at 4.02%, significantly lower than historical lows, indicating potential for further declines in the ERP [2][20] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market's total market value to GDP ratio stands at 0.75, indicating a significant distance from historical peaks, suggesting room for growth [2][20] - The ratio of household deposits to A-share market value is currently at 1.7, indicating that the process of capital moving into the stock market may still be ongoing [2][20] - Technical indicators suggest that the A-share market still has upward potential, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2][20] Group 3: US Market Overview - The US stock market indices reached new highs, with the Nasdaq up 0.94%, indicating a continuation of bullish sentiment [3][23] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points and stable economic growth provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets [3][23] - The labor market shows signs of slowing, but the overall economic fundamentals remain strong, supporting further upward movement in the market [3][23] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1123, showing an increase, while the dollar weakened due to disappointing non-farm payroll data [4][30] - The technical outlook for the offshore RMB is bullish, suggesting a potential strategy of going long on RMB assets rather than shorting the dollar [4][30] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.12%, with coal and new energy sectors leading gains, while polyester and oil sectors lagged [6][34] - The commodity market is advised to maintain a bullish outlook, focusing on long positions while managing risks [6][34]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowding levels to provide actionable insights for investors[3] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the crowding levels of various industries based on specific metrics (not detailed in the report) and tracks daily changes. For example, on the previous trading day, the crowding levels of "Electric Power Equipment" and "Electronics" were high, while "Food & Beverage," "Beauty Care," and "Petrochemical" had lower crowding levels. Significant changes in crowding levels were observed in "Retail" and "Coal"[3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a useful tool for identifying industry crowding trends and potential investment opportunities or risks[3] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products by calculating the Z-score of premium rates over a rolling window[4] - **Model Construction Process**: The Z-score is calculated based on the rolling premium rates of ETF products. The model flags ETFs with significant deviations from their historical averages, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities or risks of price corrections[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in screening ETFs for arbitrage opportunities while also highlighting potential risks of price pullbacks[4] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - No specific numerical backtesting results were provided for this model in the report 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - No specific numerical backtesting results were provided for this model in the report

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowdedness Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowdedness levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowdedness levels to provide insights for potential investment opportunities[3] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the crowdedness levels of various industries based on daily data. It identifies industries with significant changes in crowdedness levels and tracks the inflow and outflow of major funds in these industries. For example, on the previous trading day, industries such as non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, and electronics had high crowdedness levels, while food and beverage, as well as beauty care, exhibited lower levels[3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a useful tool for identifying industry trends and fund flow dynamics, which can help investors make informed decisions[3] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is used to screen ETF products with potential arbitrage opportunities by calculating the Z-score of their premium rates over a rolling window[4] - **Model Construction Process**: The model involves the following steps: 1. Calculate the premium rate of an ETF product as the percentage difference between its market price and its net asset value (NAV) 2. Compute the Z-score of the premium rate over a rolling window to identify deviations from the mean 3. Highlight ETF products with significant Z-scores as potential arbitrage opportunities while also flagging the risk of price corrections[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies ETFs with potential mispricing, offering opportunities for arbitrage while cautioning about associated risks[4] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Industry Crowdedness Monitoring Model - **Key Observations**: - Non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, and electronics had the highest crowdedness levels on the previous trading day[3] - Food and beverage, as well as beauty care, exhibited the lowest crowdedness levels[3] - Significant changes in crowdedness were observed in the automotive and light industry sectors[3] 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Key Observations**: - The model flagged ETF products with significant Z-scores as potential arbitrage opportunities[4] - Specific ETFs and their associated signals were not detailed in the report[4] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors were explicitly mentioned in the report. The focus was primarily on the construction and application of the two models described above. --- Backtesting Results of Factors No explicit backtesting results for individual factors were provided in the report. The analysis was centered on the models and their outputs.

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market showed a low opening and high closing trend, with a slight increase. The expectation is that the bond market will hit a new low for the year, targeting the low point around September 30, 2024, when the policy shifted last year [1][11] - The A-share market is maintaining a bullish trend, with a significant increase in trading volume and volatility after breaking the high point from October 8 last year. The outlook suggests that the stock market will continue to outperform the bond market [1][11] - The overall market is experiencing a V-shaped reversal, with the ChiNext index leading the gains among the three major indices. The total trading volume reached 2.36 trillion, with over 3,500 stocks rising, indicating a strong market consolidation at high levels [2][14] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The current Equity Risk Premium (ERP) for the A-share market is at 4.02%, which is significantly lower than historical lows observed in 2008, 2015, and 2021, indicating potential for further declines [2][14] - The ratio of total A-share market capitalization to GDP is currently at 0.75, which is 77% and 43% lower than the historical peaks in January 2008 and June 2015, respectively, suggesting room for growth in market capitalization relative to the economy [2][14] - The ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization is at 1.7, indicating that the process of reallocating household funds into the stock market may still be ongoing [2][14] Group 3: U.S. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Nasdaq increasing by 0.94%, the Dow Jones by 0.11%, and the S&P 500 by 0.47%. The weak employment data has set the stage for a rate cut in September, although the market's pricing of a 50 basis point cut may be overly optimistic [3][17] - The U.S. economy remains robust, with second-quarter GDP growth revised upward, supporting a stable employment market. The labor market's slowdown provides a basis for the Federal Reserve's dovish stance [3][17] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1151, down 83 basis points from the previous close. The weak non-farm data has led to a decline in the dollar, while the offshore RMB has returned to an upward trend [4][23] - The recommendation is to short the dollar with a stop loss at the 99 level, while also suggesting that investing in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, or precious metals like gold and silver may be better options compared to shorting the dollar [4][23] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.66%, with coal and construction materials leading the gains, while corn and live pig sectors lagged. The index is supported at the intersection of the 60-day and half-year moving averages [5][26] - Despite the potential for a breakdown below support levels, the strong stock market and weak bond market combination suggests a bullish outlook for commodities, with a focus on long positions while managing risk [5][26] Group 6: Important Policies and News - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released measures to expand service consumption, proposing 19 initiatives to stimulate consumer activity [6][29] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for global financial governance reform in response to new challenges in the financial stability framework [6][29] - Guangdong province is promoting AI integration in the toy industry, exploring new market opportunities through the combination of AI, toys, and robotics [6][29]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific ratings for the pharmaceutical industry, but indicates a neutral outlook for certain segments such as biopharmaceuticals and other pharmaceutical therapies [2]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, with a clear upward trend in performance [12]. - The CXO sector achieved a revenue of 47.096 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.25%, and a net profit of 11.743 billion yuan, up 61.19% year-on-year [12][10]. - The report highlights improvements in operational efficiency and cost reduction as key factors driving profit growth [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The industry is gradually stabilizing, with a clear trend towards recovery. The CXO sector's revenue and profit have shown significant growth in the first half of 2025 [12][10]. - The average revenue per employee increased to 411,100 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.62%, while average profit per employee rose to 114,000 yuan, up 52.41% [4][25]. 2. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand is stabilizing with a slight recovery in orders, as indicated by a 3.71% year-on-year increase in contract liabilities and prepayments, reaching 7.549 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4][33]. - Supply-side indicators show a modest increase in capacity construction, with fixed assets growing by 5.81% year-on-year to 47.274 billion yuan [36]. 3. Financial Environment - The report notes the commencement of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to enhance market liquidity [5][42]. - The A+H share innovation drug index has seen significant increases, which may positively influence local financing conditions [5]. 4. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on clinical CROs benefiting from domestic innovation drug support policies, such as Yangguang Nuohuo and Nuosige [61]. - It also highlights companies with strong overseas business prospects, like Haoyuan Pharmaceutical and Bide Pharmaceutical, as well as those involved in weight loss drugs and Alzheimer's treatments [61]. 5. Performance Forecasts - For the company Hongbo Pharmaceutical, revenue is projected to grow from 739 million yuan in 2025 to 1.299 billion yuan by 2027, with a corresponding net profit increase [66]. - Haoyuan Pharmaceutical is expected to achieve revenues of 28.48 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 25.47% [70]. 6. Market Trends - The CXO index has significantly outperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of 58.32% as of September 11, 2025 [54]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in U.S. interest rate policies and geopolitical factors affecting the industry [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Calet (301391) with a target price set at 55.18 [1][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading enterprise in the LED display control industry, focusing on video processing algorithms and hardware solutions for video image fields [4][14]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in performance growth while actively transforming towards AI technologies [1][9]. - The LED display industry is evolving towards precision and high-definition, with small-pitch LED and ultra-high-definition video driving long-term growth for the company [5][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Calet was established in January 2012 and provides comprehensive solutions in video image fields, with products including LED display control systems, video processing equipment, and cloud-connected players [4][14]. - The company has a clear shareholding structure with a high concentration of ownership, and its management team possesses strong technical backgrounds [20][23]. Industry Trends - The LED display industry is witnessing a shift towards precision and high-definition, with the cost of small-pitch LED displays decreasing, thus expanding downstream application scenarios [34][38]. - The global LED display market is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 7% from 2023 to 2028 [34]. Competitive Positioning - The company's products are considered the "brain" of LED displays, directly influencing the stability and display quality of LED screens [56][58]. - The company has established deep partnerships with leading LED display manufacturers, creating high barriers to entry for competitors [5][6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to recover, with expected revenues of 7.45 billion, 8.76 billion, and 10.59 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8]. - The gross profit margin has shown an upward trend, increasing from 40.25% in 2020 to 44.01% in 2024 [28][31]. Product Development - The company is expanding its product matrix to lead the AI + display control technology transformation, launching new AI-driven display solutions [6][31]. - The introduction of high-margin products such as video processing equipment and cloud-connected players is expected to enhance revenue growth [29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the public - offering REITs market declined slightly, but the trading volume increased. The indices of both property - type and franchise - type public - offering REITs dropped, with only the ecological and environmental protection - type REITs rising slightly and the consumer infrastructure - type REITs having the highest decline. The National Development and Reform Commission issued Document No. 782 to promote the development of infrastructure REITs. The market is expected to continue to expand, and public - offering REITs have high - dividend and medium - low - risk advantages with high allocation cost - effectiveness [5][41]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Secondary Market: The Public - Offering REITs Market Declined Slightly This Week - The public - offering REITs market declined slightly. As of September 12, 2025, the China Securities REITs Index fell 0.84% from last week to 840.03, and the China Securities REITs Total Return Index was 1070.04, down 0.78% from last week [10]. - The trading volume in the REITs market increased. This week, the total trading volume was 639 million shares, a 3.23% week - on - week increase, and the trading value was 2.891 billion yuan, a 3.99% week - on - week increase. The interval turnover rate was 2.81%, compared with 2.73% last week [12]. - The indices of property - type and franchise - type public - offering REITs both declined, by 0.85% and 0.54% respectively. Among them, only the ecological and environmental protection - type REITs rose 0.87%, while the consumer infrastructure - type REITs had the highest decline [15][18]. - The trading volume and turnover rate of most types of public - offering REITs declined. Only the trading volume of consumer infrastructure - type public - offering REITs increased by 136.83% to 773 million yuan. The turnover rates of consumer infrastructure - type, new - type infrastructure - type, and ecological and environmental protection - type REITs were greater than 1 [21][23]. - Most public - offering REITs products declined. Among the 74 public - offering REITs, except for the newly - listed CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT, 12 rose and 61 fell [24]. 3.2 Primary Market: 23 Public - Offering REITs Funds Are Waiting to Be Listed - 15 public - offering REITs have been issued since 2025. As of September 12, 2025, a total of 74 public - offering REITs have been issued, with a total issuance scale of 194.5 billion yuan. In 2024, 29 REITs were issued, with a total issuance scale of 64.6 billion yuan. In 2025, 15 public - offering REITs have been issued, and no new ones were issued in September 2025 [30]. - There are 23 public - offering REITs funds waiting to be listed, including 12 for initial offerings and 11 for follow - on offerings. In terms of project status, 9 have passed, 7 have been feedbacked, 5 have been questioned, 1 has been accepted, and 1 has been declared [32]. 3.3 Public - Offering REITs Policies and Market Dynamics - Approximately 384 million shares of E Fund Guangzhou Development District High - tech Industrial Park REIT will be lifted from restrictions on September 23. After the lifting, the tradable shares will increase from 136 million shares (17%) to 520 million shares (65%) [36][37]. - The fundraising results of Huaxia CapitaLand Mall REIT were announced, with the strategic placement ratio reaching 100%. The total fundraising share was 400 million shares [38]. - The National Development and Reform Commission encourages listed infrastructure REITs to raise funds through follow - on offerings to purchase high - quality assets, simplifies the application process for new acquisitions, and broadens the asset scope of new acquisitions [39][40]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - This week, the REITs index declined slightly, but the trading volume increased. The China Securities REITs Index and the China Securities REITs Total Return Index fell 0.84% and 0.78% respectively from last week. The indices of property - type and franchise - type public - offering REITs also declined [5][41]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued Document No. 782 to promote the development of infrastructure REITs, and CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. 15 public - offering REITs have been established this year, with a total scale of over 30 billion yuan, and 23 REITs funds are waiting to be listed. The market is expected to continue to expand [5][41]. - In the context of the asset shortage, public - offering REITs have high - dividend and medium - low - risk advantages, with high allocation cost - effectiveness [5][41].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Recent price increases observed in bio-jet fuel, polysilicon, refrigerants, and EVA, while prices for Vitamin E and other materials have declined [5][9][46] - The demand for lightweight materials is expected to rise due to advancements in robotics and the low-altitude economy, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related companies [5][24][30] Summary by Sections 1. Subsector Tracking - Bio-jet fuel (SAF) price reached 2670 USD/ton, up 1.14% week-on-week, and up 44.01% year-to-date [9] - Polysilicon spot price at 53945 CNY/ton, up 2.65% week-on-week [9] - Refrigerant R32 price at 61500 CNY/ton, up 0.82% week-on-week [9] - EVA market average price at 11150 CNY/ton, up 2.76% week-on-week [9] - Vitamin E price at 55 CNY/kg, down 8.33% week-on-week [4] 2. Key Product Price Trends - The report highlights significant price fluctuations in key chemical materials, with some products experiencing substantial increases while others, like Vitamin E and PA66, have seen declines [4][10] 3. Industry Performance - The basic chemical index increased by 2.40% during the week, ranking 10th among 30 sectors [60] - The overall chemical industry performance has shown noticeable differentiation, with some sectors performing better than others [63] 4. Focus on Lightweight Materials - The report emphasizes the growing importance of lightweight materials in the context of robotics and low-altitude economic activities, indicating a potential increase in demand for materials like PEEK and carbon fiber [5][24][30] 5. Renewable and Modified Plastics - The report discusses the increasing application of renewable plastics and the growing market for special engineering plastics, driven by environmental concerns and technological advancements [48][55]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is expected to challenge new lows, with a target set for the low point of September 30, 2024 [4][9][16] - The A-share market shows a strong upward trend, with the North Star 50 index leading the way, while sectors like chemicals, agriculture, steel, and photovoltaics remain at historical lows, providing a higher margin of safety [5][19][20] - The semiconductor and innovative drug sectors have reached their adjustment space, and it is suggested to hold positions for potential gains [5][19] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, which supports the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, paving the way for a potential rate cut in September [24][30] - The report notes that the offshore RMB has returned to an upward trend against the USD, with a recommendation to short the dollar while considering investments in A-shares and precious metals [30][31] - The commodity market is advised to adopt a bullish mindset, with the Wenhua Commodity Index showing an increase, particularly in coal and new energy sectors [7][35] Group 3 - Domestic policies are shifting towards supporting foreign trade enterprises, with the Ministry of Commerce emphasizing the need to stabilize the foreign trade base [42] - The report mentions that the U.S. PPI data fell short of expectations, which could facilitate further rate cuts [46] - The automotive industry in China has seen production and sales exceed 20 million units for the first time in 2025, with significant growth in the new energy vehicle sector [46]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The market is experiencing a general upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 0.13% and 0.29% respectively, while the Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 0.52% [4]. - A promotional event for home purchases is being held in Dalian, offering a 1% subsidy on the purchase price for new residential properties, which can be combined with other existing subsidy policies [6]. - The real estate sector has seen significant individual stock performance, with notable increases in stocks such as Shoukai Co. (10.12%) and Suning Universal (10.04%) [5]. Market Performance - The overall market performance on September 10, 2025, shows most sectors rising, with the real estate sector leading the gains [4]. - The individual stock performance highlights both significant gainers and losers, indicating volatility within the sector [5]. Sub-industry Ratings - No specific ratings are provided for real estate development and real estate services [3]. Related Research Reports - Recent reports include land sales and property transactions in various cities, indicating ongoing activity in the real estate market [4][6][7]. Company Announcements - Companies like China Merchants Shekou and Yuexiu Property have made announcements regarding financing and bond issuance, reflecting ongoing capital market activities [9].