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电投能源(002128):24年业绩稳定增长,关注各板块产能增长
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-14 12:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company achieved stable revenue growth in 2024, with operating income reaching 29.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.342 billion yuan, up 17.15% [1]. - The coal and power integration business remains profitable, with coal sales prices increasing against the trend, supporting overall revenue growth [2]. - The aluminum price has increased year-on-year, leading to a recovery in the electrolytic aluminum segment's performance [3]. - There is significant growth potential across various segments, including coal, electrolytic aluminum, and renewable energy [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating income of 29.859 billion yuan, a growth rate of 11.23%, and a net profit of 5.342 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.15% increase [5]. - For Q1 2025, the company recorded operating income of 7.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.63%, but a net profit decrease of 19.82% to 1.559 billion yuan [1]. Coal and Power Segment - The company generated 55.28 billion kWh of electricity in 2024, a decrease of 1.38%, with a tax-inclusive on-grid electricity price of 0.344 yuan/kWh, down 2.67% [2]. - Coal production reached 47.996 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.11%, with coal prices rising to 213 yuan/ton, up 9% [2]. Aluminum Segment - The company produced 900,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2024, a 2.85% increase, with an average domestic aluminum price of 19,922 yuan/ton, up 6.53% [3]. - The electrolytic aluminum segment achieved operating income of 15.663 billion yuan, a 9.51% increase, and a gross profit of 2.769 billion yuan, up 24.86% [3]. Growth Potential - The company is positioned as the sole platform for coal, thermal power, and electrolytic aluminum resource integration in Inner Mongolia, with potential asset injections from the parent group [4]. - The company is advancing the Zhahe No. 2 project for green aluminum, which will increase capacity by 40.7% [4]. - By the end of 2024, the company's renewable energy capacity reached 5.0076 million kW, a 10.01% increase, with ongoing projects expected to further enhance capacity [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 5.649 billion, 6.057 billion, and 6.218 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 5.76%, 7.22%, and 2.66% respectively [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 7.08, 6.61, and 6.43 times [4].
申能股份:多业务板块支撑业绩,新能源装机增速有望提高-20250514
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-14 10:45
事件:公司公布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报,2024 年实现营业收入 296.19 亿元,同比增长 1.64%,实现归母净利润 39.44 亿元,同比增长 14.04%; 2025Q1 实现营业收入 73.37 亿元,同比降低 9.09%,实现归母净利润 10.11 亿元,同比降低 12.82%。 公司报告 | 年报点评报告 申能股份(600642) 证券研究报告 多业务板块支撑业绩,新能源装机增速有望提高 煤价快速下滑,煤电板块盈利显著修复 2024 年公司煤电板块完成控股发电量 416.05 亿千瓦时,同比增长 3.5%, 秦皇岛港 Q5500 煤炭均价约 855 元/吨,同比降低约 110 元/吨,煤价下滑 带动公司板块盈利显著改善,2024 年煤电板块实现营业收入 134.28 亿元, 同比增长 2.57%,实现毛利 20.91 亿元,同比增长 49.58%。2025Q1 煤电板 块电量承压,单季度完成控股发电量 99.02 亿千瓦时,同比降低 12.5%,但 煤价仍处于下行通道,秦皇岛港 Q5500 煤炭一季度均价约 721 元/吨,同 比降低约 181 元/吨,截至 5 月 12 日,其 ...
陕西能源(001286):煤炭销售策略优化调整,储备产能持续投产
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-14 10:42
公司报告 | 年报点评报告 陕西能源(001286) 证券研究报告 煤炭销售策略优化调整,储备产能持续投产 事件:公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报,2024 年实现营业收入 231.56 亿元,同比增长 19.04%,实现归母净利润 30.09 亿元,同比增长 17.73%。 2025Q1 实现营业收入 52.02 亿元,同比降低 7.78%,实现归母净利润 7.03 亿元,同比降低 28.78%。 2024 年电力业务量价水平较优,支撑业绩水平 收入端:2024 年公司发电利用小时数 4943 小时,同比提高 129 小时,受 益于新增装机投产,整体电量表现较优,全年完成发电量 530.43 亿千瓦时, 同比增长 19.74%,2024 年公司平均上网电价(含税)0.35 元/KWh,同比 持平。成本端:由于公司业务结构调整导致发电消耗燃煤的外购量占比增 加,公司电力业务成本增幅高于营收,2024 年燃料成本 76.30 亿元,同比 增长 46.73%,电力板块整体营业成本 123.91 亿元,同比增长 28.80%。 优化煤炭销售策略,煤炭外销量显著增加 公司结合煤炭价格波动,优化煤炭内外部 ...
浙能电力(600023):发电量保持平稳,成本端有望持续改善
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-14 10:14
事件 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报,公司 2024 年实现营业收入 880.03 亿元,同比降低 8.31%,实现归母净利润 77.53 亿元,同比提高 18.92%; 2025Q1 实现营业收入176.02 亿元,同比降低12.09%,实现归母净利润10.74 亿元,同比降低 40.81%。 发电量平稳,煤价下滑带动成本端持续改善 公司报告 | 年报点评报告 浙能电力(600023) 证券研究报告 发电量保持平稳,成本端有望持续改善 2024 年,受益于浙江省全社会用电量增长及新增装机投产(乐清电厂三期、 六横电厂二期),公司全年完成发电量 1739.52 亿千瓦时,同比增长 6.56%; 秦皇岛港 Q5500 煤炭均价约 855 元/吨,同比降低约 110 元/吨,煤价下滑 带动公司板块盈利显著改善,2024 年电力(及热力)板块实现营业收入 778.39 亿元,同比增长 2.25%,实现毛利 100.99 亿元,同比增长 49.66%。 2025Q1 公司发电量 385.91 亿千瓦时,同比基本持平,电价端压力相对较 大,2025 年浙江省中长期电力交易加权均价 0.412 元/KWh ...
申能股份(600642):多业务板块支撑业绩,新能源装机增速有望提高
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-14 09:43
公司报告 | 年报点评报告 申能股份(600642) 证券研究报告 多业务板块支撑业绩,新能源装机增速有望提高 事件:公司公布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报,2024 年实现营业收入 296.19 亿元,同比增长 1.64%,实现归母净利润 39.44 亿元,同比增长 14.04%; 2025Q1 实现营业收入 73.37 亿元,同比降低 9.09%,实现归母净利润 10.11 亿元,同比降低 12.82%。 煤价快速下滑,煤电板块盈利显著修复 2024 年公司煤电板块完成控股发电量 416.05 亿千瓦时,同比增长 3.5%, 秦皇岛港 Q5500 煤炭均价约 855 元/吨,同比降低约 110 元/吨,煤价下滑 带动公司板块盈利显著改善,2024 年煤电板块实现营业收入 134.28 亿元, 同比增长 2.57%,实现毛利 20.91 亿元,同比增长 49.58%。2025Q1 煤电板 块电量承压,单季度完成控股发电量 99.02 亿千瓦时,同比降低 12.5%,但 煤价仍处于下行通道,秦皇岛港 Q5500 煤炭一季度均价约 721 元/吨,同 比降低约 181 元/吨,截至 5 月 12 日,其 ...
基金持仓与基准偏离视角下的行业潜在冲击研究
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-14 08:41
- The report defines a formula for calculating the benchmark allocation scale of a specific index across all sample funds, expressed as: $$bmAsset_{i}=\sum_{j=1}^{N}fundAsset_{j}\times weight_{i,j}$$ Here, \(bmAsset_{i}\) represents the benchmark allocation scale of index \(i\), \(fundAsset_{j}\) is the fund scale of fund \(j\), and \(weight_{i,j}\) is the weight of index \(i\) in fund \(j\) [10][11] - Another formula calculates the industry benchmark allocation scale as the sum of the benchmark allocation scales of all constituent stocks within an industry: $$bmInduAsset_{k}=\sum_{s=1}^{S}bmStkAsset_{s}$$ Here, \(bmInduAsset_{k}\) represents the benchmark allocation scale of industry \(k\), \(bmStkAsset_{s}\) is the benchmark allocation scale of stock \(s\), and \(S\) is the total number of constituent stocks in industry \(k\) [15][16] - The benchmark allocation scale of a stock is calculated as: $$bmStkAsset_{s}=\sum_{i=1}^{L}bmAsset_{i}\times stkWeight_{s,i}$$ Here, \(bmStkAsset_{s}\) represents the benchmark allocation scale of stock \(s\), \(bmAsset_{i}\) is the benchmark allocation scale of index \(i\), \(stkWeight_{s,i}\) is the weight of stock \(s\) in index \(i\), and \(L\) is the total number of indices containing stock \(s\) [17] - The formula for estimating the industry allocation scale based on fund holdings is: $$fundInduAsset_{k,T}=\sum_{s=1}^{S}\sum_{j=1}^{J}\frac{stkMv_{j,s,T-1}}{totalStkMv_{j,T-1}}\times totalStkMv_{j,T}$$ Here, \(fundInduAsset_{k,T}\) represents the fund allocation scale of industry \(k\) at time \(T\), \(stkMv_{j,s,T-1}\) is the holding scale of stock \(s\) by fund \(j\) at time \(T-1\), \(totalStkMv_{j,T-1}\) is the total stock holding scale of fund \(j\) at time \(T-1\), and \(totalStkMv_{j,T}\) is the total stock holding scale of fund \(j\) at time \(T\) [18] - The report introduces the concept of "potential impact" by standardizing industry under-allocation using free-float market capitalization as a proxy for industry capacity. The formula is: $$PotentialImpact = \frac{IndustryUnderAllocation}{IndustryFreeFloatMarketCap}$$ This metric reflects the potential inflow or outflow impact on industries based on their under-allocation relative to free-float market capitalization [23][25][29] - Using the unified benchmark framework, the report analyzes industry deviations under two major indices: - **CSI 300**: Industries with the largest over-allocation are electronics (1647 billion RMB), machinery (1070 billion RMB), and chemicals (807 billion RMB). Industries with the largest under-allocation are banking (2381 billion RMB), non-banking finance (2149 billion RMB), and food & beverages (568 billion RMB) [26][27][28] - **CSI A500**: Industries with the largest over-allocation are electronics (1291 billion RMB), machinery (911 billion RMB), and chemicals (442 billion RMB). Industries with the largest under-allocation are banking (1286 billion RMB), non-banking finance (1033 billion RMB), and utilities (329 billion RMB) [32][33][35] - The report concludes that regardless of benchmark type, the industries with the highest potential inflow impact are banking and non-banking finance, while the industries with the highest potential outflow impact are light manufacturing and textiles & apparel [5][23][34]
众辰科技(603275):产业链布局持续完善,伺服、PLC等业务逐渐起量
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-14 08:22
公司报告 | 年报点评报告 众辰科技(603275) 证券研究报告 产业链布局持续完善,伺服、PLC 等业务逐渐起量 公司 24 年全年及 25 年第一季度经营情况如下: 2024 年全年实现营业总收入 6.76 亿元,YOY+9.67%;归母净利润 2.15 亿 元,YOY+11.79%;扣非净利润 1.79 亿元,YOY-0.25%;毛利率 41.23%, yoy-1.4pcts,净利率 31.73%,yoy+0.55pcts。 2025Q1 实现营业总收入 1.5 亿元,YOY+3.32%;归母净利润为 4352.35 万 元,YOY-7.83%;扣非净利润为 3546.32 万元,YOY-11.9%。公司的毛利率 为 41.92%,yoy-0.8pcts;净利率为 28.73%,yoy-3.7pcts。 公司持续丰富产品线及配套建设。公司持续丰富变频器和伺服系统及其上 下游的产品线,推进配套产品体系建设,打造从驱动层到控制层、执行层 的产业链布局。芜湖与上海产能项目推进,高压变频器生产基地建设启动。 公司立足于行业客户日益增长的综合解决方案需求,为行业客户提供一体 化解决方案。 主营业务外探求新业务增 ...
海外半导体Q1总结:各大终端展望乐观,A股Q2业绩环比展望乐观
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-14 08:15
Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [7] Core Insights - The global semiconductor industry is expected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory in 2025, with significant recovery in terminal demand and ongoing domestic substitution efforts [5][15] - The demand for AI-related hardware is driving strong growth in the data center sector, with companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom experiencing increased orders for GPUs and related chips [3][13] - The industrial control market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in China, driven by the transition to smart vehicles and strong demand for industrial chips [3][14] Summary by Sections 1. IC Design - Digital logic chip sector shows strong performance, with AMD reporting a net profit of $709 million, up 476% year-over-year, and Qualcomm achieving a net profit of $2.812 billion, up 21% year-over-year [12][26] - Storage chip sector highlights include Micron's revenue of $8.053 billion, up 38% year-over-year, and SK Hynix's net profit of 8.11 trillion KRW, up 323% year-over-year [12][48] - Analog chip sector sees Texas Instruments reporting a net profit of $1.179 billion, up 7% year-over-year [12][53] 2. Equipment - Applied Materials (AMAT) reported revenue of $7.166 billion, up 7% year-over-year, while ASML's net profit reached €2.4 billion [12] 3. Foundry and IDM - TSMC's net profit was NT$361.56 billion, up 60.3% year-over-year, while Intel's revenue remained flat at $12.7 billion [12][19] 4. Testing and Packaging - ASE Technology's net profit was NT$7.554 billion, up 33% year-over-year [12] 5. Market Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from strong AI demand, with global data center spending projected to reach $1 trillion by 2028 [3][13] - The recovery in the industrial market is evident, with Texas Instruments noting strong demand in home appliances and power transmission [3][14] - The renewable energy sector is anticipated to see stable demand, particularly in overseas markets, with companies like Infineon expecting gradual recovery in the second half of 2025 [14] 6. Recommendations - Focus on SoC and supporting solution providers such as Hengxuan Technology and Rockchip Technology, as well as ASIC companies like Aojie Technology [6] - Attention to semiconductor storage firms like Jiangbolong and Shannon Semiconductor, and IDM foundries like Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC [6]
凯伦股份(300715):检测设备转型元年,看好公司业绩估值双升空间
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-14 07:35
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][64]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a transformation from its traditional waterproof materials business to the display panel and semiconductor testing equipment sectors, which are expected to provide significant growth opportunities [2][13]. - The acquisition of Suzhou Jiazhi Technology is anticipated to enhance the company's performance, with a commitment to achieve a cumulative net profit of no less than 240 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [1][51]. - The report highlights the potential for a turnaround in the company's main business after reaching a low point, alongside the expected growth in the newly acquired testing equipment business [64]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has historically focused on waterproof materials but is now shifting towards the display panel and semiconductor testing equipment markets, with a diversified shareholding structure [2][13][16]. - The company has faced challenges in its waterproof business since 2021, with a projected loss of 540 million yuan in 2024 [2][18]. Jiazhi Technology - Jiazhi Technology, established in 2017, is positioned in the second tier of the panel testing equipment market and has begun sales in semiconductor testing equipment [3][32]. - The market for panel testing equipment is expected to recover gradually, with a projected demand of 9.6 billion yuan in 2024 [39][40]. Financial Projections - The company's revenue from waterproof materials is projected to reach 2.4 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4% [63]. - Jiazhi Technology's revenue is expected to grow significantly, reaching 511 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 34% [64][51]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the display panel testing equipment market is currently dominated by two leading companies, with Jiazhi holding approximately 6% market share [47]. - The semiconductor testing equipment segment is still in the early stages, with limited volume production expected in the short term but significant long-term potential [50].
良信股份:新能源、数据中心等需求增长,利润率修复-20250514
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-14 07:20
2025Q1:实现收入 10.89 亿元,YOY+15.53%,归母净利润 1.03 亿元, YOY+15.15%,扣非归母净利润 1.00 亿元,YOY+15.92%。 2024 年业绩有所承压,公司经营提质增效仍显韧性。2024 年,公司围绕 "两智一新"战略,通过智能化、数字化产品升级不断推出适配新能源、 智算中心、智能楼宇等场景的高端解决方案并逐步实现行业重点客户拓展 及样板点项目的打造;加大研发投入,研发投入占比提升,新申请专利 456 项,其中发明专利 127 项;营销端持续进行营销运营体系建设和合作伙伴 生态建设,引入 AI 智能客服坐席于销售前中后业务,探索全新的 LDC 业 务模式;整合快速响应的集成供应链,建立高效的运营体系,升级物流与 仓储配送,内外协同,响应客户需求。 公司报告 | 季报点评 良信股份(002706) 证券研究报告 新能源、数据中心等需求增长,利润率修复 公司 2024 年度和 25 年第一季度经营情况如下: 2024 年:实现收入 42.4 亿元,YOY-7.57%,归母净利润 3.1 亿,YOY-38.92%, 扣非归母净利 2.6 亿,YOY-41.61%。 20 ...