证券研究报告 | 基金研究*周报 2025 年 04 月 21 日 基金研究 上周股市企稳，资金继续流入权重指数托市 上周国内主要股票指数涨跌互现，其中沪深 300、上证 50 和上证指数等大 盘指数涨跌幅分别为 0.59%、1.45%和 1.19%。中证 500、中证 1000 和创业板 指等中小盘指数涨跌幅分别为-0.37%、-0.52%和-0.64%。风格指数涨跌互现， 其中金融风格、周期风格、消费风格、成长风格和稳定风格指数涨跌幅分别 为 2.76%、0.35%、-0.05%、-0.54%和 1.10%。成长风格下，大盘成长、中盘 成长和小盘成长风格指数涨跌幅分别为-0.39%、-0.33%和 3.95%。 综合 ETF 基金中，上周交易额为 1014.99 亿元，比前周变化-1255.55 亿元。 其中，中大盘风格综合 ETF 交易额为 680.29 亿元，变化-692.45 亿元；中小 盘综合 ETF 交易额为 339.55 亿元，变化-567.44 亿元。 截止上周，32 只主题 ETF 的平均周涨跌幅为-0.10%。其中大盘风格 ETF 平均 周涨跌幅为 1.14%，中小盘风格 ETF 平均周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5]. Core Views - Hikvision's innovative business is experiencing rapid growth, contributing significantly to overall revenue, which reached 224.84 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 24.31% of total revenue [2]. - The domestic business is under pressure due to reduced government investment, leading to a decline in traditional sectors such as public security and traffic management [2]. - The overseas business has become a stable profit contributor, with revenue of 259.89 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 8.39% year-on-year [3]. - The company is committed to embracing AI and increasing R&D investment, with a R&D expense ratio of 12.83% in 2024 [3]. - In Q1 2025, the company demonstrated strong operational resilience by significantly reducing accounts receivable while still achieving revenue growth [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, Hikvision reported total revenue of 92,496 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.53%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11,977 million yuan, a decrease of 15.10% [1]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of 97,962 million yuan, 105,770 million yuan, and 115,839 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 13,277 million yuan, 14,941 million yuan, and 16,797 million yuan [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated to be 1.44 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times [9].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 04 月 21 日 汽车 上汽华为联合发布"SAIC 尚界"，4 月第二周乘用车零售同比+8% | 1 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024E | 2025E | 2024E | 2025E | | 000625.SZ | 长安汽车 | 增持 | 0.94 | 1.27 | 13.16 | 9.74 | | 000887.SZ | 中鼎股份 | 增持 | 0.99 | 1.17 | 16.29 | 13.79 | | 002284.SZ | 亚太股份 | 买入 | 0.29 | 0.47 | 35.17 | 21.7 | | 002906.SZ | 华阳集团 | 增持 | 1.24 | 1.71 | 24.15 | 17.51 | | 09660.HK 地平线机器人-W | | 买入 | 1.26 | 1.56 | 4.34 | 3.51 | | 301106.SZ | 骏成科 ...

证券研究报告| 公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 18 日 芭田股份（002170.SZ） 2024 年公司盈利大幅改善，小高寨磷矿投产助推业绩增长 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3,244 | 3,313 | 4,530 | 5,397 | 5,845 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 13.6 | 2.1 | 36.7 | 19.1 | 8.3 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 259 | 409 | 1,016 | 1,292 | 1,408 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 114.1 | 57.7 | 148.4 | 27.2 | 9.0 | | ROE（%） | 10.7 | 12.7 | 25.6 | 25.1 | 21.9 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.27 | 0.42 | 1.05 | 1.34 | 1.46 | | P/E（倍） | 36.6 | 23.2 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 6.7 | | P/ ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 18 日 恒力石化（600346.SH） 原料价格下行助力降本增效，全产业链协同发展-恒力石化 2024 年 报点评 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 234,791 | 236,273 | 247,142 | 258,182 | 268,688 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 5.6 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,905 | 7,044 | 8,460 | 10,753 | 12,008 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 197.8 | 2.0 | 20.1 | 27.1 | 11.7 | | ROE（%） | 11.5 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 14.2 | 14.1 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.53 | 1.71 | | P/E（倍） | 15.5 | 15.2 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's conventional power sources show stable profitability, with ongoing project reserves providing growth potential. The financial performance for 2024 indicates a slight revenue decline of 1% year-on-year, but a significant net profit increase of 75.3% year-on-year, driven by substantial investment gains [1][9]. - The company is well-positioned with a rich pipeline of projects across various power sources, ensuring continued performance growth. The total installed capacity is 111.7 million kW, with conventional power (coal and gas) accounting for 66.8% [4][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company expects revenues of CNY 179.18 billion in 2024, with a projected net profit of CNY 9.83 billion. The EPS is forecasted to be CNY 0.55, reflecting a 75.5% increase year-on-year [1][9]. - **Growth Rates**: Revenue is projected to grow at rates of 5.1%, 3.8%, and 2.3% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while net profit is expected to decline by 23.9% in 2025 before recovering with growth rates of 16.4% and 15.2% in the following years [1][9]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: The report highlights a return on equity (ROE) of 12.7% for 2024, with a projected P/E ratio of 8.5 for the same year, indicating a favorable valuation [1][9]. Operational Data - **Power Generation**: In 2024, the company’s coal, gas, and hydropower generation is expected to be 366.17 billion kWh, 2.35 billion kWh, and 59.468 billion kWh respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.3%, +22.49%, and +7.93% [2][3]. - **Investment Gains**: The company reported investment income of CNY 7.33 billion in 2024, a remarkable increase of 363% year-on-year, primarily from the sale of a 50% stake in a subsidiary [1][9]. Project Pipeline - The company has a robust project pipeline with ongoing and approved projects, including 7.64 million kW of coal and 4.9235 million kW of hydropower under construction, which will contribute to future earnings growth [4][9].

Labor Supply Elasticity - China's overall labor supply elasticity is estimated at 0.06, while urban labor supply elasticity is 0.2, both lower than several OECD countries (Canada 0.38, Netherlands 0.25, USA 0.28) [2] - The low labor supply elasticity indicates that tax cuts may not effectively stimulate consumption, suggesting a need to increase residents' property income to address the "high labor supply - low consumption tendency" [2] Labor Characteristics - The average weekly working hours for urban employees in China exceed 44 hours, which is above the legal limit of 40 hours per week [37] - The high labor supply characteristic aligns with a low marginal propensity to consume, indicating a preference for labor over leisure among residents [38] Economic Implications - The low elasticity of labor supply complicates macroeconomic adjustments, as it limits the effectiveness of government tax cuts aimed at stimulating the economy [38] - The government’s ability to manage economic downturns is hindered by the low labor supply elasticity, which restricts options for wage adjustments during economic crises [38]

证券研究报告|公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 16 日 川投能源（600674.SH） 来水改善助力业绩增长，投资收益略有波动 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,482 | 1,609 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,988 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 4.4 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 0.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,400 | 4,508 | 5,132 | 5,505 | 5,790 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 25.2 | 2.4 | 13.8 | 7.3 | 5.2 | | ROE（%） | 11.7 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 10.8 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.90 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 1.19 | | P/E（倍） | 18.5 | 18.0 | 15.8 | 14.8 | 14.0 | | P/B（倍） | 2. ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 04 月 14 日 风电周报（2025.4.7-2025.4.13） 25Q1 国内整机商中标超 38GW，首个海陆一体海风柔直工程开工 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024E | 2025E | 2024E | 2025E | | 002531.SZ | 天顺风能 | 增持 | 0.11-0.14 | 0.75 | 21.01 | 9.31 | | 300129.SZ | 泰胜风能 | 增持 | 0.5 | 0.71 | 12.92 | 9.1 | | 300443.SZ | 金雷股份 | 增持 | 0.54 | 1.16 | 34.78 | 16.19 | | 600875.SH | 东方电气 | 买入 | 1.23 | 1.54 | 12.42 | 9.92 | | 603062.SH | 麦加芯彩 | 买入 | 1.95 | 2.5 | 25.24 | 20.86 | | 603218.SH | ...

证券研究报告 交易型指数基金资金流向周报 ——数据日期：2025/4/7-2025/4/11 长城证券产业金融研究院 基金研究 分析师：金铃 执业证书编号：S1070521040001 报告日期：2025年4月14日 交易型指数基金资金流向 www.cgws.com 国内被动股票基金 | 大 类 | 所属概念 | 基金规模 | 周涨跌幅 | 周资金净买 | 今年以来周涨跌幅 | 今年以来周资金流向 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | (%) | 入额(亿元) | 走势图 | 走势图 | | | | 上证50 | 1594.56 | -1.79 | 116.71 | | | | | | 沪深300 | 9834.49 | -3.01 | 979.15 | | | | | | 中证500 | 1401.20 | -4.54 | 149.65 | | | | | | 中证1000 | 1169.17 | -5.69 | 284.98 | | | | | | 创业板指 | 1264.48 | -6.86 | 69.62 ...