2025年03月12日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观深度 金融市场分析周报 (2025.03.03-2025.03.07) 报告摘要 | 主要数据 | | | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3379.8284 | | 沪深 300 | 3941.4157 | | 深证成指 | 10861.164 | 主要指数走势图 季节性因素致通胀走弱,强力稳增长政策稳定 预期 -2025-03-12 财政货币双宽松,市场有望延续震荡上行 - 2025-03-07 金融市场分析周报 —2025-03-05 股市有风险 入市需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 联系地址:北京市朝阳区望京街道望京东园四区2号楼中航产融大 厦中航证券有限公司 公司网址：www.avicsec.com 联系电话：010-59219558 传真:010-59562637 证券研究报告 中航证券研究所发布 1 ● 进出口:由于基数走高及美国加征关税,今年以来出口增速明显放 缓，后续不确定性加大。以美元计，1-2 月出口累计同比增长 2.3%,增速较去年 12月大幅放缓 8.4 个百分点;进口由增长 1%转 为下降 8.4%, 增速较 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [12]. Core Views - The report highlights that SMIC is a key player in China's semiconductor industry amidst escalating US-China tech tensions, with the company positioned as the third-largest foundry globally and the largest in mainland China [1][2]. - The semiconductor demand is expected to grow moderately, with advanced processes helping the company navigate through market cycles. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be $8.03 billion, reflecting a 27% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - Significant capital expenditures are planned, with $7.33 billion allocated for 2024, aimed at expanding production capacity and enhancing technological capabilities [3][6]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue projections show a recovery from $6.32 billion in 2023 to $8.03 billion in 2024, with further growth expected to $9.79 billion in 2025 and $11.74 billion in 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate [6][7]. - The company's net profit is forecasted to rebound from $492.74 million in 2024 to $791.46 million in 2025, and further to $1.14 billion in 2026, reflecting a significant recovery trajectory [7][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 18.03% in 2024 to 25.12% in 2026, indicating better operational efficiency and cost management [7][11]. Capacity and Investment Plans - SMIC plans to maintain a capital expenditure of approximately $7.5 billion in 2025, with ongoing construction of four 12-inch fabs, which will nearly double its production capacity [3][6]. - The company is focusing on advanced process technologies, with the first generation of 14nm FinFET already in mass production and plans for further advancements in the N+2 process node [2][3]. Market Position and Trends - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of SMIC in the context of localizing supply chains due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, which may benefit the company as clients seek to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [2][3]. - The demand for semiconductors in consumer electronics, particularly driven by AI applications, is expected to create new opportunities for SMIC, with a strong recovery anticipated in the consumer electronics sector [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [5][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that SMIC is a key player in the rise of "Chinese chips" amid escalating US-China tech tensions, with stricter scrutiny on semiconductor supply chains starting in 2025 [1][2]. - The semiconductor demand is expected to grow moderately, with advanced processes helping the company navigate through market cycles [2]. - SMIC is making significant capital expenditures to strengthen its position, with plans to double its production capacity over the next few years [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - SMIC is the largest foundry in mainland China and the third largest globally, providing a range of technology nodes from 0.35μm to 14nm FinFET [1]. - The company is strategically positioned in the semiconductor industry, especially as the US imposes tighter restrictions on technology access [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, SMIC's total revenue is projected to reach $8.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27% [2][7]. - The company aims to maintain a capital expenditure of approximately $7.5 billion in 2025, with significant investments in expanding its production capacity [3]. Capacity Expansion - SMIC is currently constructing four 12-inch wafer fabs with a combined capacity planning of 340,000 wafers per month, which is nearly double its 2023 capacity [3]. - The company has been increasing its investments in key equipment to support advanced process expansion, particularly in its Shanghai facility [3]. Market Trends - The report notes a recovery in consumer electronics driven by AI innovations, with increased demand for products in the home appliance and 3C sectors expected in 2025 [2]. - The trend of "local for local" sourcing is anticipated to benefit SMIC as overseas sanctions continue [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory with expected revenues of $9.79 billion in 2025 and $11.74 billion in 2026 [7][8]. - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit margins, with a projected net profit of $791.46 million in 2025, up from $492.74 million in 2024 [8][10].

非银金融 投资评级 增持 非银行业周报（2025 年第八期） : 中长期资金入市空间逐步打开,建议关注券商投资 机会 市场表现: 本期（2025.3.3-2025.3.7）非银（申万）指数+1.24%，行业排 17/31, 券商Ⅱ指 数+0.73%,保险II指数+1.72%; 上证综指+1.56%，深证成指+2.19%，创业板指+1.61%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：海南华铁（+28.43%）、新力金融（+10.38%）、中航 产融（+8.80%）、国泰君安（+5.89%）、九坤投资（+5.88%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：国盛金控（-5.14%）、海德股份（-3.12%）、建元信托 (-2.93%）、浙江东方（-2.34%）、中国银河（-2.22%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.73%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.66pct,跑输上证综 指数 0.83pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.51 倍，位于 2020 年 50 分位点附近。 本周,3月6日,证监会主席吴清在十四届全国人大三次会议 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, maintaining a balance between short-term stability and long-term transformation, reflecting a pragmatic yet challenging policy stance [1]. - The fiscal deficit is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, marking a historical high for the two sessions, which aligns with the direction of a more proactive fiscal policy [2]. - The issuance of special bonds and local government bonds is expected to reach 6.2 trillion yuan this year, significantly higher than the previous year's total of 4.9 trillion yuan, indicating an increase in effective fiscal spending [3]. - The monetary policy is characterized as "moderately loose," with expectations for potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates throughout the year [4]. - CPI is projected to show a "high-low-high" trend throughout the year, with an expected year-end CPI increase of around 1.2% [12]. - PPI is anticipated to narrow its decline throughout the year, with a forecasted annual decrease of -1.2% [14]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The government work report emphasizes a combination of "expansive fiscal and monetary policies" to stabilize growth expectations [1][4]. - The fiscal policy aims to enhance domestic demand through increased public spending and special bond issuance [2][3]. Inflation and Price Trends - February 2025 CPI showed a year-on-year decrease of -0.7%, with core CPI also negative for the first time since January 2021 [11]. - The CPI is expected to rise later in the year due to strong growth policies and increased consumer spending [12]. Trade and Export Performance - Exports in the first two months of 2025 increased by 2.3% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 8.4%, indicating a mixed trade environment [15]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on exports has not yet fully materialized, suggesting resilience in certain sectors [17]. Market Performance - The REITs market experienced a limited rebound, with the CSI REITs index up by 1.14% [18]. - Market liquidity has decreased, with average daily trading volume dropping to 787 million yuan [19].

2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 今年拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元、比去年增加 3000 亿元。拟发行特别国债 5000亿元,支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4万亿元、比 上年增加 5000 亿元。今年特别国债和地方专项债合计达 6.2 万亿元,明显高于去年合 计值的 4.9 万亿元。考虑到去年 11 月 8 月财政部提出的"6+4+2"化债方案发力，预计 化债压力大为减轻的地方政府将在"轻装上阵"的利好下增加有效财政支出强度，今年 广义财政口径下的支出效率也将提升，财政政策对内需的支撑值得期待。 货币政策方面,政府工作报告提出的"实施适度宽松的货币政策"、"社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配"等关键表述与去年底的中央 经济工作会议基本一致。 本次政府工作报告提出的实施"适度宽松"的货币政策,是对去年中央经济工作会 议对货币政策最新定调的再次明确。去年年末以来,市场对货币政策转向宽松反应明显, 十年期国债收益率自去年 11 月底的 2.02%一路震荡下行至当前的 1.71%。在市场提前 计价央行货币政策更加宽松的同时,自 ...

2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 投资评级 本期（2025.3.3-2025.3.7）非银（申万）指数+1.24%，行业排 17/31, 券商Ⅱ指 数+0.73%,保险II指数+1.72%; 上证综指+1.56%，深证成指+2.19%，创业板指+1.61%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：海南华铁（+28.43%）、新力金融（+10.38%）、中航 产融（+8.80%）、国泰君安（+5.89%）、九坤投资（+5.88%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：国盛金控（-5.14%）、海德股份（-3.12%）、建元信托 (-2.93%）、浙江东方（-2.34%）、中国银河（-2.22%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 增持 非银行业周报（2025 年第八期） : 中长期资金入市空间逐步打开,建议关注券商投资 机会 市场表现: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.73%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.66pct,跑输上证综 指数 0.83pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.51 倍，位于 2020 年 50 分位点附近。 本周,3月6日,证监会主席吴清在十四届全国人大三次会议 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is set to "Increase" for companies expected to outperform the market by more than 10% over the next six months, "Hold" for those expected to perform within 5%-10% of the market, and "Reduce" for those expected to underperform by more than 10% [94]. Core Insights - The pet economy is identified as a high-quality sector aligned with social development and consumption trends, with domestic pet food companies expanding capacity and enhancing branding, leading to anticipated rapid growth in performance. Key companies to watch include Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Pei Ti Co. [88]. - The livestock cycle is expected to face pressure on prices due to high output in 2025, leading to a gradual capacity reduction cycle. This presents opportunities in the equity sector, particularly for large-scale breeding groups like Mu Yuan Co. and Wen's Co. [89]. - The seed industry is undergoing revitalization, with the commercialization of biological breeding expected to accelerate, creating opportunities for expansion and restructuring within the industry. Companies like Long Ping High-Tech and Da Bei Nong are highlighted as key players [91]. - The overseas market for feed is growing rapidly, particularly in Southeast Asia, where domestic leading feed groups possess management and technical advantages, indicating potential for new growth. Haid Group is noted as a significant player [91]. - Recent macro policies focus on debt reduction and stimulating consumption, which are expected to benefit sectors with strong agricultural and consumer attributes, such as Da Yu Water and Xi Wang Food [91]. Summary by Sections Pet Food Industry - The domestic pet food sector is experiencing significant growth due to increased production capacity and brand development, with companies like Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Pei Ti Co. positioned for strong performance [88]. Livestock Sector - The livestock industry is facing price pressures due to high output levels, creating opportunities for investment in large-scale breeding companies such as Mu Yuan Co. and Wen's Co. [89]. Seed Industry - The seed industry is set for expansion and restructuring driven by the commercialization of biological breeding, with key companies like Long Ping High-Tech and Da Bei Nong leading the way [91]. Feed Industry - The feed industry is expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where companies like Haid Group are well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities [91]. Policy Impact - Recent policies aimed at debt reduction and consumption stimulation are expected to positively impact agricultural sectors, particularly those with strong consumer ties, such as Da Yu Water and Xi Wang Food [91].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The company has recently achieved authoritative certification for its self-developed Tianwen Intelligent Computing Cloud Platform, which is expected to drive growth in its cloud computing business [2][3]. - The launch of the DeepSeek Security Intelligent Computing Integrated Machine, which integrates various capabilities, positions the company to meet the growing demand for AI private deployment in the domestic market [4][10]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected to be 2.805 billion yuan in 2024, 3.091 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.417 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 69 million yuan, 179 million yuan, and 242 million yuan respectively [10][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tianrongxin has been actively developing its cloud computing products since 2019, with steady growth in related business [3]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 10.792 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 10.682 billion yuan [4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.124 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected decline of 11.81% for 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10.21% and 10.54% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [12][14]. - The net profit for 2023 was -371.4 million yuan, with expectations of turning profitable in 2024 with a net profit of 68.57 million yuan [12][14]. Market Position - The company’s DeepSeek series has been adopted by over 60 enterprises, including major players like Huawei and Lenovo, indicating a strong market presence [4][9]. - The overall scale of the intelligent computing service market in China is expected to reach 5 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 57.3% from 2023 to 2028 [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the market for non-bank financials has shown a positive trend, with the non-bank index increasing by 1.24% during the week of March 3 to March 7, 2025. The brokerage sector specifically saw a 0.73% increase, lagging behind the broader market indices [1]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing efforts by regulatory bodies to facilitate the inflow of medium to long-term funds into the A-share market, which is expected to enhance market liquidity and improve the overall market ecosystem. Since September 2024, net purchases by insurance funds and various pension funds in the A-share market have reached approximately 290 billion yuan, reflecting a 22% increase in the market value held by these long-term funds [1]. - The report suggests that the ongoing consolidation within the brokerage sector, driven by regulatory encouragement, is expected to enhance industry competitiveness and resource allocation. It recommends focusing on brokerage firms involved in mergers and acquisitions, such as Guotai Junan and Zhongtai Securities [5]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Weekly Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 10,064 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 15.32% week-on-week. The average turnover rate was 3.26%, down by 0.34 percentage points [10]. - As of March 7, 2025, the total equity financing scale for the year reached 740.23 billion yuan, with IPOs contributing 53 billion yuan and refinancing accounting for 687 billion yuan [15]. Insurance Weekly Data Tracking - The insurance sector saw a 1.72% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.33 percentage points. The median comprehensive claim ratio for personal short-term health insurance among 124 insurers was approximately 38.20% [6]. - The report notes that the overall claim ratio for personal short-term health insurance remains low, with a long-term target of around 70% being more favorable for both consumers and insurers [7]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the regulatory environment, highlighting the recent announcements aimed at expanding the scope of financial asset investment companies and supporting insurance funds' participation in equity investments [25]. - It also mentions the potential for further monetary policy easing, as indicated by the People's Bank of China, which may support the financial markets [25].