评级:无评级 分析师：由子沛 发改委: 推动基础设施 REITs 扩围扩容 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 09 日 执业证书编号: S0740523020005 Email: youzp@zts.com.cn 分析师:陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email: chenxr@zts.com.cn 分析师:李垚 执业证书编号: S0740520110003 Email: liyao01@zts.com.cn 分析师:侯希得 执业证书编号: S0740523080001 Email: houxd@zts.com.cn | | | 本周行情回顾: 本周 REITs 指数上涨 1.19%,沪深 300 累计上涨 1.39%,中证 500 指数上涨 2.63%, 中证全债指数下跌 0.42%，中债 1 年期国债指数上涨 0.01%，中债 10 年期国债指 数下跌 0.51%，中证转债指数上涨 1.39%。上市以来 REITs 与十年期国债、一年期 国债、中证转债相关性分别为-0.18、-0.29、0.60，与沪深 300、中证 500 相关性 分别为 0.29、0.3 ...

美股后续风险将如何演绎？ | 证券研究报告/策略事件点评报告 | 2025 | 年 | 03 | 月 | 11 | 日 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告摘要 | 分析师：徐驰 | 美股自今年 | 月中旬以来持续回调，标普 | 指数距离高点回撤超过 | 8%，纳斯达克 |  | 2 | 500 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 | 回撤超过 | 10%，且纳指 | 月 | 日单日跌幅达到 | 4%。我们近期密集提示：美股中大 | 3 | 10 | 级别调整风险，过去两周如期演绎。这里仅将本轮美股暴跌的"与众不同"的要点列 | Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn | | 出： | 相关报告 | | | | | | | | | | 本轮全球资本市场交易的核心是抛弃"美国资产"，而非简单的"东升西降"："美元 |  | 1、《两会资本市场新政将带来哪些影 | 弱、美股崩、通胀起、经济弱、黄金强、非美资产强"这一交易的本质，在于特朗普 | | | | | | | | 响 ...

美国劳动力市场的降温迹象 ——点评 2025 年 2 月非农就业数据 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/宏观事件点评报告 2025 年 03 月 07 日 报告摘要 事件：美国 2 月新增非农就业 15.1 万人（前值下修至 12.5 万人），失业率升至 4.1% （前值 4.0%），平均时薪环比增速降至 0.28%（前值 0.42%）。 图表 1 ：美国新增非农就业人数 来源：WIND，中泰证券研究所 主要观点： 美国 2 月新增就业较前值上升但仍有中期放缓趋势，加之失业率上升、时薪增速下降， 劳动力市场显现一定的降温迹象。向前看，政府裁员的影响值得关注，2 月联邦政府 就业下降 1.0 万人（前值增长 0.5 万人），负面影响已初步显现。假设 2025 年联邦政 府裁员 20 万人转为失业人口，将逐步推升失业率 0.12 个百分点左右。 相关报告 从美联储来看，近期伴随着特朗普关税政策的激进倾向及其强不确定 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the embodied intelligence industry, highlighting its potential as a ceiling for robot development, and recommends investors to pay attention to technological breakthroughs and commercialization progress in this sector [3]. Core Insights - Embodied intelligence is defined as an intelligent system based on physical bodies that perceives and acts through interaction with the environment, leading to intelligent behavior and adaptability [2][8]. - The development of embodied intelligence represents a convergence of robotics and artificial intelligence, with the potential to unlock significant market opportunities, projected to reach trillions in the future [2][3]. - The report identifies two main types of embodied large models: end-to-end models and layered embodied models, with the latter currently being more prevalent due to data limitations [2][3]. Summary by Sections What is Embodied Intelligence - Embodied intelligence emphasizes intelligent agents with physical bodies interacting with the environment to gain intelligence [8]. - The application of embodied intelligence in robotics can be divided into three stages: perception, reasoning, and execution [2][8]. Embodied Intelligence: Intersection of Robotics and AI - The generality of robots depends on the development of their generalization capabilities, which has evolved from simple automation to more complex, general-purpose robots [21][22]. - The report discusses the historical evolution of robotics from automation tools to intelligent agents that can directly impact the physical world [24]. Future of Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is expected to transition from specialized to general-purpose applications, with a significant focus on commercial viability in industrial manufacturing [2][3]. - The report highlights the anticipated investment boom in embodied intelligence, driven by advancements in AI and robotics [31][34]. Embodied Large Models Empowering Humanoid Robots - The report distinguishes between disembodied models and embodied large models, with the latter capable of generating motion postures linked to physical robots [37]. - It discusses the advantages and challenges of end-to-end models and layered models in the context of embodied intelligence [40][50]. Data Accumulation Methods for Robotics - The report outlines four primary methods for accumulating training data for robots: remote operation, AR, simulation, and video learning, emphasizing the current data scarcity in the robotics field [60][64][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The Beijing Municipal Education Commission has released a plan to advance artificial intelligence education in primary and secondary schools from 2025 to 2027, aiming to establish a distinctive AI education system [6]. - The plan includes the development of a curriculum that integrates AI education into various subjects and encourages the use of external resources such as AI laboratories and experience centers [6]. - The report anticipates a growing demand for AI-related educational content and services, benefiting publishing companies that can adapt their offerings to include AI-focused materials and after-school programs [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the industry is 131, with a total market value of 1,572.50 billion and a circulating market value of 1,429.90 billion [3]. Key Companies - Notable companies mentioned include: - **Wangxin Media**: Focused on scientific visualization and AI education resources [6]. - **Southern Media**: Engaged in educational technology through partnerships [8]. - **Urban Media**: Publishes AI-related educational materials [8]. - Other companies to watch include Dou Shen Education, Century Tianhong, and Xinhua Wenxuan [8]. Market Trends - The report highlights a trend towards integrating AI into educational practices, with an emphasis on enhancing the curriculum and expanding educational resources [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, faces challenges due to aging mines and accidents, leading to a production shortfall compared to initial guidance for the year [4][9] - The company’s copper production for 2023 is projected at 1.4237 million tons, accounting for approximately 6.4% of global output [4][9] - Codelco's production guidance for 2024 is set between 1.325 million and 1.352 million tons, a decrease from earlier estimates [9] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Codelco was established in 1976 and is the largest copper producer globally, with total copper resources of 45.01 million tons and an average grade of 0.64% [4][9] - The company operates seven mines and one smelter, with major mines including El Teniente, Radomiro Tomic, and Chuquicamata [4][9] Production and Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, Codelco's copper production decreased by 5% year-on-year, totaling 918,000 tons [4][9] - The production in Q3 2024 was 338,400 tons, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year and a 19% increase quarter-on-quarter [9] - The decline in production is attributed to aging mines and operational accidents, particularly at Radomiro Tomic and El Teniente [9] Cost Analysis - Codelco's cash cost for the first three quarters of 2024 remained stable at $2.10 per pound, compared to $2.00 per pound in 2023 [9] - The stability in costs is due to the depreciation of the Chilean peso and a decrease in energy prices, which offset rising costs from declining ore grades [9] Capital Expenditure and Expansion Projects - Codelco plans to increase production to 1.8 million tons by 2030 through several key projects [9] - Major projects include the Chuquicamata underground mine, Andina mine enhancements, and the Salvador Rajo Inca project, all aimed at extending the lifespan and production capacity of existing mines [7][8][9]

执业证书编号：S0740524030002 计算机设备 Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：孙行臻 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 25,855 | 24,062 | 26,553 | 29,398 | 32,851 | | 执业证书编号：S0740524030002 | | 增长率 yoy% | 13% | -7% | 10% | 11% | 12% | | Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,863 | -6,185 | 822 | 1,712 | 2,108 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 60% | -432% | 113% | 108% | 23% | | 基本状况 | | 每股收益（元） | 1.32 | -4.37 | 0.58 | 1.21 | ...

Economic Indicators - The 2025 fiscal deficit is projected at 5.66 trillion, with a target deficit rate of around 4%, implying a nominal GDP of approximately 141.5 trillion[2] - The implied nominal GDP growth rate for 2025 is estimated at 4.9%, slightly below the actual GDP growth target of 5%[2] - The CPI target has been adjusted down to 2%, indicating a focus on improving supply-demand relationships[2] Fiscal Policy - The increase in fiscal deficit and special bonds is expected to contribute approximately 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth, with a total increase of 2.4 trillion compared to 2024[2] - The fiscal multiplier is estimated at 0.6, suggesting that the incremental fiscal deficit will contribute around 1.44 trillion to GDP, accounting for 1.1% of 2024's GDP[2] Monetary Policy - The liquidity tone has shifted from "reasonably ample" to "ample," indicating a potential tightening of the monetary environment[2] - New structural monetary policy tools will be implemented to promote the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets[2] Consumer Spending - A special bond of 300 billion will be issued to support consumer goods replacement, aligning with market expectations[2] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption may be introduced, particularly if external demand weakens[2] Risk Management - The report emphasizes a balanced approach to growth and risk management, stating that development is fundamental to gradually resolving risks[2] - Specific measures include allowing cities greater autonomy in managing housing stock and dynamically adjusting high-risk debt areas[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1,724 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 15% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 189 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [2]. - The company has a strong market position in the semiconductor cleanroom sector, with an estimated market share of approximately 30% in new domestic semiconductor projects [5]. - The successful acquisition of Jiexinlong enhances the company's capabilities to provide comprehensive cleanroom solutions, expanding its product line [5]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with overseas revenue reaching 140 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 86% [5]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 1,227 million yuan, which increased to 1,505 million yuan in 2023, representing a growth rate of 23% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.41 yuan, with a projected increase to 1.95 yuan in 2025 [2]. - The net asset return rate is expected to rise from 10% in 2024 to 14% in 2026 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 27.1 in 2025 to 19.5 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [2].

钾肥和烯草酮等产品涨价；关注碳纤维及复材在车用领域发展 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：孙颖 | | （元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | 万华化学 | 68.81 | 5.17 | 5.36 | 4.70 | 5.74 | 7.13 | 13.31 | 12.85 | 14.64 | 11.99 | 9.65 | 买入 | | Email：sunying@zts.com.cn | 华鲁恒升 | 20.55 | 2.96 | 1.68 | 1.80 | 2.19 | 2.63 | 6. ...