美国劳动力市场仍稳 点评 2025年5月非农就业数据 证券研究报告/宏观事件点评报告 2025年07月04日 分析师:杨畅 相关报告 报告摘要 总体来看,6月美国新增非农总数偏稳、失业率回落,指向劳动力市场仍稳健运行, 但背后仍存三点隐忧需要关注:第一,行业结构分化较大,州和地方政府新增就业分 别创近 29个月、15个月新高,合计大幅增长 8万人,支撑了非农总体增量的 54.4%, 与此同时,服务业新增就业明显放缓,联邦政府就业连续第五个月萎缩。第二,住户 调查数据显示,整体劳动力人口下降 13.0万人,显示劳动力供给明显减少,这将同时 压低失业率的分子与分母,意味着失业率回落一定程度由于劳动力市场整体萎缩。此 外,外国出生的劳动力人数环比下降 13.4万人,连续第三个月回落,显示特朗普政府 强硬移民政策对劳动力供给的压降作用。第三,时薪增速放缓,居民消费需求仍可能 降温。 对美联储而言,这份超预期的非农数据反映出整体经济形势在短期仍有韧性,这可能 会支持他们在7月议息会议上保持按兵不动继续观望,但9月降息成为大概率事件。 数据公布后,FedWatch 显示市场定价美联储在 2025年将降息 2.1 次/53 ...

政府采购本国商品的经验、重点与效果 ——当前经济与政策思考 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 参考美国、日本和欧盟在推动政府采购本国产品方面的经验： 美国通过《购买美国产品法》、《贸易协定法》、《贝瑞修正案》等立法，确立优先采购 本国产品的原则，同时兼顾国际协定义务，针对中小企业和国防领域设立特殊支持和 例外。 日本名义上遵循世贸组织《政府采购协议》（GPA）透明原则，但通过高门槛技术标 准和合同拆分等隐性手段保护本土企业；其承诺覆盖范围有限，排除多类敏感产品与 服务。 相关报告 欧盟则强调公开竞争，早期以消除壁垒为主，但在 2014 年开始引入"战略性采购" 理念，将绿色、社会责任和创新纳入评标，加大本土中小企业参与力度，又在 2022 年实施《国际采购工具》，针对非互惠第三国设置限制。 从效果来看，即使只考虑 GPA 所覆盖的政府采购合同，美日欧的本国供应占比也均 高于 85%，其中日、美高于 95%。 美国政府采购重点从冷战时期的国防本土化，逐步转向支持技术创新、中小企业、绿 色与基建领域。日本则在保障国防与基建等敏感行业本土化的同时，对高技术 ...

Supply Side - The approach to eliminate outdated production capacity includes market-driven mergers and government guidance, as seen in Japan's steel industry where the number of major companies reduced from six to three, achieving a combined crude steel production share of 71.6% by 2011[8] - Japan's government encouraged mergers through tax incentives, leading to the formation of Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation, the world's second-largest steel company, with a crude steel production share of 80.7% by 2014[8] - China has also implemented market-oriented reforms to promote mergers and capacity elimination, resulting in the establishment of China Baowu Steel Group, the largest steel conglomerate globally[8] Demand Side - Japan's "National Income Doubling Plan" in the 1960s aimed to boost domestic demand, resulting in an annual income growth exceeding 10% and private consumption reaching over 60% of GDP[20] - From 1983 to 1989, Japan's construction investment surged from 27.5 trillion yen to 46.4 trillion yen, driving steel consumption by approximately 10.3 trillion yen[20] - The U.S. "Marshall Plan" from 1948 to 1952 provided $15 billion in aid to Europe, facilitating the export of surplus production and stimulating the U.S. economy[22] Policy Measures - The U.S. has established a comprehensive bankruptcy procedure allowing companies to reorganize during bankruptcy, maximizing value for stakeholders[24] - Japan's legislation in 1978 provided employment assistance for laid-off workers during capacity reduction, including job training and extended unemployment benefits[25] - Risk factors include unexpected fluctuations in overseas economies and potential delays in the update of public data used in the report[26]

Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The first technology innovation green corporate bond on the Beijing Stock Exchange was successfully issued on June 25, 2025, by China Communications First Highway Engineering Group Co., Ltd. with a total issuance scale of 300 million yuan[2] - The bond has a maturity of 60 days and an issuance interest rate of 1.60%, marking a historical low for short-term corporate bonds issued by central state-owned enterprises on the exchange[2][13] - Multiple financial institutions, including SPDB, Xiamen International Bank, Huaxia Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and CITIC Securities, participated in the subscription[2] Group 2: Bond Characteristics and Impact - This bond is characterized by both "technology innovation" and "green" labels, with all raised funds allocated to the green building sector[3][15] - The successful issuance supports the green transformation in infrastructure, promoting a high-quality development path through the integration of technology finance and green finance[3][15] Group 3: Support Measures and Future Outlook - The Beijing Stock Exchange has introduced nine specific measures to support the development of technology innovation bonds, including broadening the range of issuers and simplifying information disclosure[4][18] - The exchange aims to enhance financing support for the technology innovation sector and will continue to innovate bond varieties while strengthening the synergy between equity and bond markets[4][18] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology for investment opportunities in 2025[4][17][20] - Specific companies highlighted include Krait (data center), Suzhou Axis (robotics), and Hualing (semiconductors), among others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance[4][17][20] Group 5: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include policy risk, liquidity risk, macroeconomic environment risk, and the risk of technological innovation not meeting expectations[21][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [3]. Core Views - The company has established a dual-brand strategy and is implementing a three-year leap plan aimed at increasing both volume and profitability. The focus is on structural optimization and cost reduction while improving revenue and profit margins [8][19]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in revenue and profit margins, with a notable increase in sales for its high-end brand, Xiangjie, particularly after the launch of the S9 extended-range version [9][52]. - The company aims to position itself among the top players in the new energy vehicle market by 2027, with ambitious sales targets for both its brands [19]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the first publicly listed new energy vehicle company in China and has established a deep partnership with Huawei, enhancing its product offerings and market presence [13]. - The dual-brand strategy involves the simultaneous development of the Extreme Fox and Xiangjie brands, with a clear three-year plan to boost operations [16]. 2. Financial Performance - The company has transitioned from B2C to C2C products, with revenue growth driven by improved product structure. Revenue for 2023 and 2024 is projected at 14.32 billion and 14.51 billion yuan, respectively, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 50% and 1% [22]. - The company has implemented cost control measures while ensuring R&D investment, leading to a recovery in net profit margins to their highest levels since 2020 [26]. 3. Xiangjie Brand Development - The Xiangjie brand is gaining recognition in the high-end market, with the S9 extended-range version showing significant sales improvement. The brand is positioned to compete directly with established luxury brands [9][49]. - The company is leveraging its partnership with Huawei to enhance its product offerings and market positioning, aiming to capture a larger share of the high-end sedan market [30]. 4. Extreme Fox Brand Expansion - The Extreme Fox brand is expanding its sales channels and enhancing its online presence, resulting in a doubling of store numbers and significant sales growth. The brand's sales reached over 13,500 units in May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 200% [10][19]. - The company is set to launch multiple new models, which are expected to further boost sales and market penetration [10]. 5. Market Positioning and Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to capture market share in the high-end electric vehicle segment, with a focus on improving brand recognition and product offerings. The high-end sedan market is identified as a blue ocean opportunity with limited competition [55]. - The company anticipates that the Xiangjie brand will be able to replace some of the market share held by traditional luxury brands due to its growing recognition and competitive product offerings [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The successful issuance of the first technology innovation green corporate bond on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) marks a significant milestone, combining both "technology innovation" and "green" labels [4][14] - The bond, issued by China Communications First Public Bureau Group Co., Ltd., raised 300 million yuan with a term of 60 days and an interest rate of 1.60%, setting a historical low for short-term corporate bonds in the exchange market [3][14] - The funds raised will be fully invested in the green building sector, providing financial support for the green transformation in infrastructure [5][14] - The BSE has introduced nine specific measures to support the development of technology innovation bonds, enhancing financing support for the technology innovation sector [7][12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The BSE currently has 274 listed companies with a total market value of 845.857 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 511.769 billion yuan [1] Recent Developments - The issuance of the first technology innovation green corporate bond is a response to national strategies aimed at promoting financial support for green and technological advancements [14] - The BSE is actively conducting training and research to align funding with the needs of technology innovation enterprises [7][14] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, and consumer goods for potential investment opportunities in 2025 [9][13] - Specific companies highlighted include: - Data Centers: Krait and Shuguang Data Creation - Robotics: Suzhou Axis, Audiwei, Jun Chuang Technology, and Fuheng New Materials - Semiconductors: Hualing Co. and Kaide Quartz - Consumer Goods: Taihu Snow, Boshenglong, Lusi Co., Kangbiter, and Thunder Technology [9][13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading all-industry chain reality entertainment platform in China, engaging in content production, promotion, distribution, IP derivative licensing, and ticket management for entertainment activities [6][11]. - The IP industry is identified as a rapidly growing market with significant potential, with the Chinese IP market projected to grow from 91 billion yuan in 2020 to 126.2 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.5% [30][35]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of 78.91 billion yuan, 95.34 billion yuan, and 116.83 billion yuan for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 21%, and 23% [6][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates through three main segments: content production, ticketing and technology platforms, and IP derivatives, leveraging resources from the Alibaba ecosystem [11][12]. - It has participated in the production and promotion of over 300 films, with significant contributions to the Chinese box office [11][12]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 3.5 billion yuan, 5.04 billion yuan, and 6.7 billion yuan for FY23, FY24, and FY25, with year-on-year growth rates of 44% and 33% for FY24 and FY25 respectively [21]. - Adjusted EBITA for the same periods is projected at 310 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 810 million yuan, with a consistent growth rate of 61% for FY24 and FY25 [21]. IP Market Insights - The IP industry is characterized by a dual-sided extension model, with significant growth opportunities in both upstream and downstream operations [27][30]. - The report highlights that the average unit licensing fee can leverage over 25 times the gross merchandise value (GMV) of licensed products, indicating a lucrative market potential [33]. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a robust integration of Alibaba's resources, enhancing its market position in ticketing and live entertainment [6][11]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong market share in ticketing, with nearly 100% coverage of major concert projects [6][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with an expected relative performance increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [9]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience amid external disturbances, presenting opportunities for seasonal layout [3]. - The brand's down jackets showed strong performance, with stable profit levels [3]. - The expansion of product categories is leading growth, and the long-term development of the company is viewed positively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024/25, the company achieved a revenue of 25,902 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3,514 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [4]. - The overall gross margin was 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 13.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The main brand's down jacket business generated revenue of 21,668 million yuan, growing by 11.0% and accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [5]. - The brand "Bosideng" saw revenue increase by 10.1% to 18,481 million yuan, with a gross margin of 69.0% [5]. - The "Xuezhongfei" brand achieved revenue of 2,206 million yuan, up 9.2%, while the "Bingjie" brand's revenue decreased by 12.9% to 127 million yuan [5]. Channel and Operational Efficiency - The company is optimizing its channel structure with a net increase of 253 retail outlets, totaling 3,470, including 1,236 self-operated and 2,234 franchised stores [5]. - Online sales reached 7,575 million yuan, growing by 9.3%, with the online revenue of the down jacket business accounting for 34.5% of its segment revenue [5]. - The OEM business grew significantly, with revenue of 3,373 million yuan, up 26.4%, while the women's wear segment faced challenges with a revenue decline of 20.6% [5]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross margin decreased to 57.3%, primarily due to the faster growth of lower-margin OEM business compared to the brand business [5]. - The net profit margin improved to 13.6%, supported by a decrease in the sales expense ratio by 1.8 percentage points to 32.9% [5]. - The company maintained healthy inventory turnover with a total inventory of 3,951 million yuan and a turnover period of 118 days [5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 3,911 million yuan for FY2026, 4,345 million yuan for FY2027, and 4,784 million yuan for FY2028, with growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 10% respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the overall prices of industrial metals have risen, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc showing weekly changes of 2.3%, 1.3%, 2.3%, and 4.9% respectively [4][27] - The non-ferrous metal sector index outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index closing at 5094.64 points, up 5.11% week-on-week, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.20 percentage points [4][25] - The report highlights that the decline in the US dollar index has led to a general increase in basic metal prices, suggesting limited downside potential for these prices in the long term [10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market has risen, with the non-ferrous metal sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [19] - Domestic metal prices have generally increased, with specific weekly changes noted for LME and SHFE metals [27] Macro Factors - In China, the PMI for May showed a slight recovery at 49.5, while the CPI remained negative at -0.1% [6][37] - The US GDP for Q1 was revised down to a year-on-year growth of 1.99%, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.5% [6][39] - European manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery, while global manufacturing PMI continued to decline [7][45] Basic Metals Analysis - For electrolytic aluminum, the report notes a strong price increase due to low inventory levels and a declining dollar [8][47] - The aluminum processing sector's average operating rate decreased to 58.8%, indicating a slight decline in demand [9][47] - The report indicates that the global aluminum inventory has increased, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory rising to 505,000 tons [9][47] - In terms of profitability, the industry maintains a profit margin of over 3,000 yuan per ton, with current aluminum prices at 20,940 yuan per ton [9][47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, emphasizing the potential for price increases in rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the defense and military industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The grand military parade on September 3 will showcase new generation equipment and new combat forces, emphasizing the importance of unmanned intelligent systems, underwater operations, electronic warfare, and hypersonic technologies [9][22] - The appointment of Zhang Yujin as the new chairman of China Aviation Engine Group is expected to accelerate procurement and capital operations within the industry, indicating a turning point for the aviation engine sector [12][23] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry consists of 143 listed companies with a total market value of 26,967.47 billion and a circulating market value of 22,823.81 billion [3] Market Performance - The defense and military index rose by 6.90%, outperforming other major indices, with a current PE(TTM) of 68.4 times [8][42][48] Key Developments - The establishment of a joint laboratory for key vacuum measurement devices in nuclear fusion aims to promote independent innovation in this field [14][31] - The revision of the civil aviation law focuses on the development of the low-altitude economy and passenger rights [15][32] - The successful test of the second-stage propulsion system of the LQ-2 liquid launch vehicle marks a significant step towards enhancing China's capabilities in commercial space [17][37] Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: - Military electronics: Zhenhua Technology, Hongyuan Electronics, Huada Electronics [26] - Missile industry chain: Tianqin Equipment, Zhimin Technology [26] - Domestic engines: Aero Engine Corporation of China, Aero Engine Control [27] - New domains: Satellite internet and low-altitude economy companies [28]