证券研究报告：电力|点评报告 发布时间：2025-06-04 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 3180.98 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 3359.79 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2868.51 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 电力 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 南方区域电力市场运行规则进一步完善，看好虚拟 电厂对绿电运营商的赋能 l 投资要点 事件：2025 年 5 月 23 日，国家能源局南方监管局发布《南方区 域电力市场运行规则（试行，2025 年 V1.0 版征求意见稿）》。 l 区域电力市场规则进一步完善 1.1 电能量交易_中长期(1)提升交易便捷度：缩短交易周期，提 高交易频次，实现周、多日、逐 ...

证券研究报告：电力|点评报告 发布时间：2025-06-04 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 3180.98 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 3359.79 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2868.51 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 电力 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 行业投资评级 1.2 电能量交易_现货（1）阻塞盈余：采用节点电价结算所产生 的阻塞盈余，可按规则分配给经营主体（2）出清价格：节点电价暂由 系统电能价格与阻塞价格两部分构成。 2 阻塞盈余的分配：初期可采用分配方式处理阻塞盈余，待条件 成熟时，可通过市场化方式拍卖输电权，由输电权拥有者获取相应的 阻塞收入。 3 结算规则（1）公式 1（中长期差价结算）：发电侧电 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector index increased by 1.79%, ranking 4th among 31 primary industries, driven by policy expectations [4][12] - Supply pressure in the pig market remains significant, with policies aimed at stabilizing pig prices due to concerns about future price declines [5][20] - The white feather chicken market shows stable chick prices, with a focus on domestic breeding opportunities amid import uncertainties [27] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The agricultural sector index rose 1.79%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.03% [12] - Among sub-sectors, planting and fruit processing led the gains, while the breeding sector experienced fluctuations due to policy expectations [13] Breeding Industry Chain Tracking Pig Market - As of June 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.41 yuan/kg, remaining stable compared to the previous week [5][17] - Supply pressures are expected to continue due to an increase in breeding sows and high market weights of pigs [5][20] - Profitability for self-bred pigs is around 36 yuan per head, while purchased piglets incur losses of 84 yuan per head [18] - The industry anticipates a narrow fluctuation in pig prices for 2025, with controlled supply growth [21] White Feather Chicken - As of June 3, chick prices were stable at 3.00 yuan per chick, with meat chicken prices at 3.68 yuan/kg [27] - The industry is currently well-supplied, with high levels of parent stock, despite uncertainties in imports due to avian influenza [27] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted downwards, with white sugar priced at 6090 yuan/ton as of June 3, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton [30] - The price of Brazilian soybeans was 3640 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.0% decrease [30] - Cotton prices showed slight fluctuations, priced at 14550 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [30] - Corn prices experienced a minor decline, averaging 2332 yuan/ton [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector index increased by 1.79%, ranking 4th among 31 primary industries, driven by policy expectations [4][12] - The supply pressure for live pigs remains significant, but policies are signaling to stabilize pig prices [5][20] - The industry is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in pig prices in 2025, with a gradual reduction in production capacity [21] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the agricultural sector is 2705.92, with a 52-week high of 2838.04 and a low of 2110.64 [2] Livestock Industry Tracking Swine - As of June 2, the average price of live pigs is 14.41 yuan/kg, remaining stable compared to the previous week [5][17] - The number of breeding sows has been increasing since May 2024, indicating a potential rise in pig supply in the second half of 2025 [5][20] - Profit margins for self-bred pigs are around 36 yuan per head, while purchased piglets are incurring losses of 84 yuan per head [18] - The industry is focusing on cost competition, with recommendations to prioritize companies with cost advantages [6][21] Broilers - The price of white feather broiler chicks is stable at 3.00 yuan/chick, with meat chicken prices at 3.68 yuan/kg [27] - Concerns regarding imported breeds have eased, presenting opportunities for domestic breeding companies [27] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have decreased to 6090 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan from the previous week [30] - The price of Brazilian soybeans is 3640 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.0% decline [30] - Cotton prices are slightly down to 14550 yuan/ton, showing a 0.1% decrease [30] - Corn prices have seen a minor drop to 2332 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [32]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][6][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic distributor of electronic components, actively expanding into electric vehicles and AI sectors. It has over 20 years of industry experience and holds agency rights for numerous well-known upstream chip manufacturers. The company has established a silicon carbide laboratory in collaboration with upstream manufacturers and has engaged in various testing and technical cooperation [4]. - In 2024, the company expects revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items to reach 7.821 billion yuan, 98.43 million yuan, and 86 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 31.58%, 48.34%, and 58.24% [4][9]. - The company’s revenue streams are diversified, with approximately 20% from the automotive sector, 16% from industrial and new energy clients, and 36% from communication and consumer electronics [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 10 billion yuan in 2025, 13 billion yuan in 2026, and 17 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits of 142.33 million yuan, 189.64 million yuan, and 242.76 million yuan for the respective years [6][9]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 27.92% in 2025, 30.08% in 2026, and 30.64% in 2027 [9][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.12 yuan in 2025, 0.16 yuan in 2026, and 0.21 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 77.60, 58.24, and 45.49 [9][12].

证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-03 行业投资评级 行业相对指数表现 -18% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《存量地产行业更需要"运营商"而非 "建造者"》 - 2025.05.27 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 1989.86 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2656.47 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1627.84 | 房地产行业报告（2025.5.26-2025.6.1） 百强房企拿地优于去年 市场延续分化 ⚫ 投资要点 根据中指院数据，25 年 1-5 月，TOP100 房企销售总额为 14436.4 亿元，同比下降 10.8%，微降 0.6pct。5 月单 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the semiconductor and optical sectors, with projected revenues of 510 million in 2024, representing an 82% increase year-on-year [2]. - The laser optics business is also showing robust growth, with revenues of 416 million in 2024, a 14.32% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The infrared business is anticipated to recover, with the company leveraging its complete process chain in infrared lens design and manufacturing [4]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and market reach, particularly in the semiconductor and optical fields, while also venturing into consumer-grade optical markets [3][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 540 million, 700 million, and 910 million respectively, with corresponding net profits of 45 million, 65 million, and 85 million [9]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy growth rate, with revenue growth rates of 30.03% in 2025 and around 29.57% in 2026 [9][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.32 in 2024 to 0.74 in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [9][12].

Quantitative Models and Construction Diffusion Index Model - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is used to monitor the critical points of future diffusion index changes, predicting potential turning points in the market[6][43] - **Model Construction Process**: - The horizontal axis represents the relative price change of stocks in the micro-cap index components over a future period, ranging from +10% to -10% - The vertical axis represents the length of the review or forecast window, ranging from 20 days to 10 days - For example, a value of 0.16 at the intersection of a -5% price change (horizontal axis) and a 15-day window (vertical axis) indicates the diffusion index value under these conditions - The model uses historical data to calculate the diffusion index for different scenarios and predicts the likelihood of market turning points based on these values[43][45] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic way to identify potential market turning points, but its accuracy depends on the stability of the index components and market conditions[6][43] - **Model Testing Results**: - Current diffusion index value: 0.91 - Historical signals: - Left-side threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 8, 2025, with a value of 0.9850[47] - Right-side threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 15, 2025, with a value of 0.8975[51] - Dual moving average method triggered a buy signal on April 30, 2025[52] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Leverage Factor - **Factor Name**: Leverage Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the financial leverage of companies, indicating their risk and potential return[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the ratio of total debt to equity or assets, normalized for comparison across companies[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong performance in the current week, with a rank IC of 0.143, significantly above its historical average of -0.006[5][38] Turnover Factor - **Factor Name**: Turnover Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the liquidity of stocks, with higher turnover indicating more active trading[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the ratio of trading volume to free float market capitalization over a specific period[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of 0.051 this week, outperforming its historical average of -0.08[5][38] PB Inverse Factor - **Factor Name**: PB Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the inverse of the price-to-book ratio, identifying undervalued stocks[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as 1 divided by the price-to-book ratio, normalized for comparison[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of 0.042 this week, slightly above its historical average of 0.034[5][38] Free Float Ratio Factor - **Factor Name**: Free Float Ratio Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proportion of shares available for public trading, indicating potential liquidity[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the ratio of free float shares to total shares outstanding[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of 0.04 this week, outperforming its historical average of -0.012[5][38] 10-Day Return Factor - **Factor Name**: 10-Day Return Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures short-term momentum by analyzing recent stock performance[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the percentage change in stock price over the past 10 trading days[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of 0.025 this week, significantly above its historical average of -0.061[5][38] Non-Adjusted Stock Price Factor - **Factor Name**: Non-Adjusted Stock Price Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the raw stock price without adjustments for splits or dividends[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Directly uses the stock's current market price[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of -0.19 this week, underperforming its historical average of -0.017[5][38] PE_TTM Inverse Factor - **Factor Name**: PE_TTM Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio based on trailing twelve months, identifying undervalued stocks[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as 1 divided by the PE_TTM ratio, normalized for comparison[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of -0.143 this week, underperforming its historical average of 0.018[5][38] ROE (Single Quarter) Factor - **Factor Name**: ROE (Single Quarter) Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the profitability of companies based on their return on equity for a single quarter[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as net income divided by shareholders' equity for the most recent quarter[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of -0.124 this week, underperforming its historical average of 0.023[5][38] Nonlinear Market Cap Factor - **Factor Name**: Nonlinear Market Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the nonlinear relationship between market capitalization and stock performance[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Applies a nonlinear transformation to market capitalization data, such as logarithmic or polynomial adjustments[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of -0.116 this week, underperforming its historical average of -0.033[5][38] Log Market Cap Factor - **Factor Name**: Log Market Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the logarithmic transformation of market capitalization to reduce skewness[5][38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the natural logarithm of market capitalization[5][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Rank IC of -0.116 this week, underperforming its historical average of -0.033[5][38] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Leverage Factor**: Rank IC 0.143[5][38] - **Turnover Factor**: Rank IC 0.051[5][38] - **PB Inverse Factor**: Rank IC 0.042[5][38] - **Free Float Ratio Factor**: Rank IC 0.04[5][38] - **10-Day Return Factor**: Rank IC 0.025[5][38] - **Non-Adjusted Stock Price Factor**: Rank IC -0.19[5][38] - **PE_TTM Inverse Factor**: Rank IC -0.143[5][38] - **ROE (Single Quarter) Factor**: Rank IC -0.124[5][38] - **Nonlinear Market Cap Factor**: Rank IC -0.116[5][38] - **Log Market Cap Factor**: Rank IC -0.116[5][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In May, China and the US reached an agreement to suspend the implementation of tariffs, leading to an improvement in Sino-US trade. The import index and new export order index rebounded, driving the recovery of domestic supply and demand, and the manufacturing PMI increased month-on-month. However, considering that the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The marginal improvement in external demand may have limited impact on boosting the boom level. The US anti-globalization policy has long-term and negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies may be limited. The expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Export Marginally Improves, Manufacturing Boom Rebounds - Manufacturing PMI rebounds, with a month-on-month increase greater than the seasonal average. In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points is greater than the average increase of 0.1 percentage points in the past five years. However, the manufacturing PMI is lower than the average of 49.9% in the same period of the past five years, only higher than that in 2023 [12]. - Most sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI increase, and the number of sub - indices in the expansion range remains the same as last month. Among the 13 sub - indices, 9 increase in boom level and 4 decline. Only 2 sub - indices, namely the production and operation activity expectation and production, are in the expansion range [14]. - The price indices have declined for three consecutive months, but the decline has narrowed. In May, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index of the manufacturing PMI were 46.9% and 44.7% respectively, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline has narrowed by 2.7 and 3.0 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month [16]. - The finished product inventory decreases passively, and enterprises' willingness to expand production increases. The raw material inventory index is 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the finished product inventory index is 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points; the purchase volume index is 47.6%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [16]. - Production returns to expansion, and the new order index approaches the critical point. The production index is 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point. The new order index is 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The PMI of large enterprises rises above the critical point, the boom of medium - sized enterprises declines, and the boom of small enterprises improves. The PMI of large enterprises is 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises is 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises is 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - The high - tech manufacturing industry continues to expand. The PMI of the high - tech manufacturing industry is 50.9%, remaining in the expansion range for four consecutive months [20]. 2. Service Industry Boom Slightly Increases, Construction Industry Boom Declines - The non - manufacturing boom level declines but remains in the expansion range, and the month - on - month performance is weaker than the seasonal average. In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. From a seasonal perspective, the month - on - month decline of 0.1 percentage points is lower than the average increase of 0.9 percentage points in the past five years [22]. - The service industry boom rebounds, and the boom of holiday - related consumption industries increases. The service industry business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, and catering have significantly rebounded [22]. - The construction industry boom declines but remains in the expansion range. The construction industry business activity index is 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity index of civil engineering construction is 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [23]. - The composite PMI output index slightly rebounds. In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continue to expand [24]. 3. Marginal Recovery of Boom, Policy Still Needs to Be Strengthened - The marginal improvement in external demand has limited impact on boosting the boom level. Although the manufacturing PMI has increased, the new order index is still below the boom line, enterprises' willingness to expand production is not strong, and the price level continues to decline. The US anti - globalization policy has long - term negative effects on the Chinese economy, and the room for easing domestic fiscal and domestic demand promotion policies is limited. Therefore, the expectation of stable growth policies will continue to strengthen [3][26].

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:金晓杰 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100010 Email:jinxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《Claude 4 系列发布，谷歌上线编程 智能体 Jules——AI 动态汇总 20250526》 - 2025.05.27 《谷歌发布智能体白皮书，Manus 全面 开放注册——AI 动态汇总 20250519》 - 2025.05.20 《证监会修改《重组办法》，深化并购 重组改革——微盘股指数周报 20250518》 - 2025.05.19 《通义千问发布 Qwen-3 模型， DeepSeek 发布数理证明大模型——AI 动态汇总 20250505》 - 2025.05.06 《基金 Q1 加仓有色汽车传媒，减仓电 新食饮通信——公募基金 2025Q1 季报 点评》 - 2025.04.30 《泛消费打开连板与涨幅高度，ETF 资 金平铺机器人、人工智能与芯片—— 行业轮动周报 20250427》 - 20 ...