Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [2][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a performance turning point, driven by dual growth from military and civilian sectors. The 2024 annual report shows a significant revenue drop of 41% year-on-year, with a net loss of 2.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 398% [4][5]. - The decline in defense product revenue is the primary reason for the losses in 2024, with a 67% drop to 5.26 billion yuan. However, the optical materials and devices segment saw a 29% increase in revenue to 7.42 billion yuan [5]. - The company plans to achieve a revenue target of 2.5 billion yuan in 2025, with expectations to return to profitability. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 33% year-on-year [6][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 14.59 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 7.4 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 44% and a current P/E ratio of -36.02 [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.297 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 2.591 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 99.8% [11]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 741 million yuan, with significant growth rates of 136% and 106% expected in the following years [9][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its product lines, including the development of quadruped and humanoid robots, which are expected to become new growth points [5]. - A planned capital increase of up to 1.02 billion yuan will fund projects in high-performance optical materials and advanced components, aiming to enhance production capacity significantly [6]. Market Outlook - The collaboration between major defense groups is expected to enrich the assets available to the company, enhancing its market position [7][9].

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy, shifting from "timely adjustments" to "flexible grasp" of policy implementation, indicating a focus on existing monetary policy rather than new incremental policies[2] - The central bank emphasizes interest rate risks, suggesting potential short-term adjustments in both short-term and long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield currently in the 1.6%-1.65% range[3] - The central bank's focus on the health of commercial banks may lead to a downward trend in deposit rates, as the net interest margin continues to narrow, impacting the stability of the banking system[4] Credit and Financing - There is an intention to increase credit supply to lower overall financing costs, with a shift towards total credit volume as constraints ease, while promoting consumption remains a key focus of monetary policy[4] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans in Q1 was 3.44%, up by 0.16 percentage points from the end of the previous year, indicating a need for improved efficiency in monetary policy transmission[25] - The report highlights a transition in real estate policy towards optimizing existing policies, particularly focusing on expanding financing support for affordable housing[26] Inflation and Demand - Effective demand improvement is crucial for stabilizing inflation, with fiscal policy expected to be more effective than monetary policy in this context, as current demand remains insufficient[28] - The report notes that the growth rate of social financing and broad money supply (M2) is maintained at 7%-8%, while the CPI growth rate is below 1%, indicating limited effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating demand[28] Risk Factors - Risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, unexpected financial crises abroad, and potential adjustments in long-term interest rates[5]

发布时间：2025-05-13 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：市场静待贸易靴子 落地》 - 2025.05.12 宏观观点 大方向依然是走弱 l 核心观点 在 5 月 12 日的中美经贸联合声明中，美国将取消和暂停对我国 部分关税，总体将对我国关税税率降至 30%左右。但我们认为此举对 于美国经济的提振有限，回到"解放日"之前的水平和状态可能性较 低。 首先是声明公布后进一步走高的政策不确定性指数。在"解放日" 后，关税大幅抬高，但真正直接作用于美国经济和实体预期的是政策 的不确定性。各项调查等软数据均显示了不确定性对居民和企业部门 消费、投资决策的负面影响。5 月 12 日，尽管中美关系出现了阶段性 缓和，但政策不确定性指数再创新高，这一影响渠道依然在起作用。 其次是特朗普可能出现的"朝令夕改"。这在上一次贸易战中已 经体现的较为充分，且 24%的对等关税是暂停 90 天， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][37] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a comprehensive rebound, with the agricultural index rising by 0.99%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [5][13] - The pig price is currently operating at a slight profit, with production capacity reduction slowing down. The average price of live pigs as of May 9 is 14.73 CNY/kg, showing minor fluctuations [6][17] - The white feather chicken market is experiencing stable chick prices, with a focus on domestic breeding due to uncertainties in overseas imports [28] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the agricultural sector is 2606.49, with a 52-week high of 2927.53 and a low of 2110.64 [2] Market Performance - The agricultural sector's index has increased by 0.99%, while the broader market indices like the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index have risen by 2.00% and 1.92%, respectively [13][14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Industry - The average price of live pigs has remained stable between 14.6 and 14.9 CNY/kg since April, with a slight upward shift due to increased second-time fattening [6][17] - As of May 9, self-breeding pig farmers are earning approximately 84 CNY per head, while those purchasing piglets are making about 58 CNY [18][19] - The breeding stock has shown a slight increase, with April's data indicating a 0.41% rise in breeding sows [19][20] White Feather Chicken - As of May 9, the price of white feather chicken chicks is 3.10 CNY per chick, with an average profit of 0.2 CNY per chick [28] - The market is currently characterized by a significant disparity, with high chick prices causing resistance among farmers due to rising feed costs [28] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 6150 CNY/ton, while corn prices have increased to 2306 CNY/ton, reflecting a mixed trend in crop prices [32][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][37] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a comprehensive rebound, but the growth in the agricultural sector is relatively small, with the agricultural index rising by 0.99%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [5][13] - The pig price is operating at a micro-profit level, with production capacity reduction slowing down. The average price of pigs as of May 9 is 14.73 CNY/kg, showing slight upward movement due to increased frequency of secondary fattening [6][17] - The white feather chicken market is experiencing stable chick prices, with the price at 3.10 CNY/chick as of May 9, while the average profit per chick is 0.2 CNY [28] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 2606.49, with a 52-week high of 2927.53 and a low of 2110.64 [2] Market Performance - The agricultural sector index has increased by 0.99%, while the broader market indices such as the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index have risen by 2.00% and 1.92%, respectively [13][14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Industry - The average price of pigs has remained stable between 14.6 and 14.9 CNY/kg since April, with a slight upward shift in average price due to increased secondary fattening [6][17] - As of May 9, self-breeding and self-raising pigs have an average profit of approximately 84 CNY per head, while purchased piglets yield a profit of 58 CNY [18][19] - The breeding stock has shown slight fluctuations, with April data indicating a 0.41% increase in breeding sows [19][20] White Feather Chicken - The chick price remains stable, with a current price of 3.10 CNY/chick and a meat chicken price of 3.75 CNY/kg [28] - The market is experiencing significant polarization, with high chick prices causing resistance from the breeding sector due to rising feed costs [28] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 6150 CNY/ton, while corn prices have increased to 2306 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 49 CNY/ton [32]

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for the first 90 days[2] - After the suspension, the average tariff rate imposed by the US on China will be 51%, which is higher than the average non-MFN (Most Favored Nation) tariff rate of 42%[2][16] - The negotiations indicate a willingness to communicate, moving from an irrational tariff level to a more rational one, suggesting the start of substantive trade discussions[3][18] Group 2: Impact on Trade and Exports - During the 90-day suspension period, China's export growth to the US may decline by 21.6% to 27.6%[4][21] - In April, China's export growth to the US was -21.03%, indicating that further deterioration is unlikely within the year[4][21] - High price elasticity industries, such as optical and medical instruments, are more sensitive to tariff changes, with significant impacts expected from tariff adjustments[5][23] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The positive outcome of the trade talks is expected to enhance market risk appetite and support domestic economic improvement[6][24] - The Chinese government is adopting a more proactive policy stance, which may lead to accelerated implementation of existing policies in the second quarter[6][24] - Future negotiations may still face uncertainties, reflecting the historical behavior of the Trump administration regarding trade policies[3][26]

Market Performance Review - A-shares experienced a significant rise after the holiday but shifted to a volatile phase, with major indices showing mixed performance, particularly the ChiNext Index which rose by 3.27% [12] - The leading sectors included defense, telecommunications, electric power equipment, and banking, influenced by geopolitical events and international trade policies [13] A-share Sentiment Recovery Needs Catalysts - The sentiment among A-share investors has notably declined, with a strong correlation between market movements and investor sentiment since the rally began on September 24, 2024 [17][21] - The financing capital, which reflects investor sentiment, has seen a significant outflow since April, indicating reduced trading enthusiasm [20][21] - The upcoming U.S.-China trade talks are critical; if they indicate a continuation of trade tensions, it may further depress market sentiment [32] Policy Impact on Market Sentiment - The ability to boost A-share investor sentiment will largely depend on policy developments, particularly related to domestic demand stimulus measures [35] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting's policy expectations have not materialized, necessitating clear stimulus policies to catalyze market recovery [37] Dividend Stock Valuation Enhancement - The potential for further declines in domestic credit spreads following interest rate cuts enhances the attractiveness of dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like banking, railways, and electric power [5][33] - The current environment suggests that dividend stocks may offer better value compared to other asset classes, especially as the market anticipates further monetary easing [34] Future Market Outlook - The recovery of A-share sentiment is contingent on the timing of domestic demand stimulus policies, with current macroeconomic data showing signs of weakness [35][28] - The first quarter earnings reports have not provided significant positive surprises, with only 21.78% of companies exceeding expectations, which is below historical averages [21][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 29.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.62 billion yuan, up 44.17% year-on-year [2][9] - The company is accelerating its platform layout, with significant breakthroughs in key technologies for new products, leading to a steady increase in market share for mature products [2][3] - The company has announced its entry into the ion implantation equipment market and has launched several new products, enhancing its competitive position in the semiconductor equipment sector [3][4] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 38.79 billion yuan, 48.71 billion yuan, and 58.74 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.38 billion yuan, 9.72 billion yuan, and 12.15 billion yuan [7][9] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 10.52 yuan in 2024 to 22.75 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong profitability [9][12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 41.50 in 2024 to 19.19 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over the forecast period [9][12] Market Position - The company has strengthened its market position by acquiring a 17.90% stake in Chip Source Micro, which will enhance its collaborative capabilities in semiconductor equipment [4][6] - The company has successfully launched high-end equipment in the integrated circuit equipment sector, with revenues from etching, film deposition, thermal treatment, and wet processing equipment expected to exceed 80 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan, and 10 billion yuan respectively in 2024 [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 29.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.62 billion yuan, up 44.17% year-on-year [2][9] - The company is accelerating its platform layout, with significant breakthroughs in key technologies for new products, leading to a steady increase in market share for mature products [2][3] - The company plans to enhance its competitive edge through the acquisition of a 17.90% stake in Chip Source Micro, aiming to leverage synergies in semiconductor equipment [4][6] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 38.79 billion yuan, 48.71 billion yuan, and 58.74 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.38 billion yuan, 9.72 billion yuan, and 12.15 billion yuan [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 10.52 yuan in 2024 to 22.75 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [9][12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 41.50 in 2024 to 19.19 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [9][12] Market Position - The company has successfully launched several high-end semiconductor equipment, including the dual Damascus CCP etching machine and HDPCVD equipment, which have achieved client mass production [2][3] - The company’s market share is expected to continue expanding due to its strong product, technology, and service advantages [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company specializes in wireless audio ICs, targeting high-end consumer and professional audio markets globally. Its main products include Bluetooth audio SoC chip series, portable audio and video SoC chip series, and smart voice interaction SoC chip series, which are widely used in Bluetooth speakers, headphones, smart education, and smart home applications. The company has become a mainstream supplier in the low-power wireless IoT field related to audio and has gradually achieved domestic substitution in relevant chip areas [2] - The company serves both international and domestic top-tier brands, including Harman, Sony, Bose, and Xiaomi, by providing differentiated chip combinations to meet the diverse needs of terminal brands in the market. This has led to increased penetration rates among mainstream terminal brands [2] - The company is continuously enhancing its product development and upgrades for 2.4G private communication protocols, which are widely applied in smart offices, smart homes, and industrial control. The latest generation of products supports a transmission power of up to 16dBm and a wireless transmission bandwidth of 4Mbps, showcasing strong wireless connection technology and anti-interference capabilities [2] - The company is leveraging AI advancements to enhance audio applications, including voice recognition and noise suppression. Its edge AI processor chips serve as a crucial link between audio and AI, providing low-power computing platforms for AI applications in IoT devices [2] Financial Forecast and Metrics - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 652 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 25.34%, and is expected to reach 875 million yuan in 2025, 1,149 million yuan in 2026, and 1,493 million yuan in 2027. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 107 million yuan in 2024, growing to 163 million yuan in 2025, 231 million yuan in 2026, and 309 million yuan in 2027 [3][4] - The company's EBITDA is expected to grow from 80 million yuan in 2024 to 346 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.73 yuan in 2024 to 2.12 yuan in 2027, reflecting the company's robust growth potential [3] Product and Market Development - The company is deepening its focus on smart audio SoC technology, leading innovations in audio technology [5][8] - The company is expanding its market share in portable and home audio markets, particularly in wireless microphones and soundbars, with a gradual increase in market penetration [24][46] - The company is actively exploring the wireless microphone market, which is experiencing growth due to the rise of video streaming and content creation, with its products gaining popularity for their low power consumption and excellent noise reduction capabilities [50][51] R&D and Talent - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with a projected R&D expense rate of 33% in 2024, and total R&D expenditure expected to reach 215 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.06% [22] - The company has optimized its R&D personnel structure, with 266 R&D staff accounting for 73.08% of the total workforce, focusing on high-performance and low-power technology innovations [22]