研究所 宏观研究 5月经济高频数据环比回暖 投资要点 (1)5月经济景气度环比回升,稳增长政策效果仍需释放 从高频数据来看,5月经济景气度环比有所回暖,稳增长政策效 果显现,工业需求环比回升,消费具有季节性回升特点,面对外部高 不确定性,短期市场微观主体情绪趋于谨慎,生产表现为以订单驱动 的特点,生产表现相对平稳,但整体表现为供过于求的态势,有效需 求不足仍是制约经济的核心矛盾,带来要素市场景气度回落,PPI 同 比增速跌幅或进一步扩大,符合我们在报告《4月经济呈现供给驱动 特征,应超前关注科技产业对投资的补充》的基准假设。在此情境下, 基于避险和对政策不确定性的恐慌,在美国对我国加征关税的 90天 豁免期内,美国或加大进口,以避免未来不确定性影响,这或支撑短 期我国出口韧性,亦维持短期生产稳定。但因市场微观主体偏于谨慎, 企业生产或以订单驱动,投资扩产意愿下降:以内需为主的企业或担 忧外贸转内需的潜在影响,其投资扩产亦受一定冲击:市场微观个体 对就业和收入预期或有所下降,居民预算约束趋严,进而对消费形成 收缩压力。在此背景下,国内稳增长政策可对冲部分外部冲击影响, 但 PPI 同比增速跌幅进一步扩大,或指向 ...

Production Insights - Overall production heat has declined, with coke oven capacity utilization down by 0.05 pct and blast furnace operating rate down by 0.46 pct[3] - Rebar production increased by 49,500 tons, while asphalt operating rate fell by 3.6 pct[3][14] - PX and PTA operating rates decreased by 0.81 pct and 0.58 pct respectively[14] Demand Trends - The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, with 30 major cities recording a total of 1.8065 million square meters, down by 36,500 square meters from the previous week[4][22] - The land transaction area increased by 3.3361 million square meters, with the premium rate for residential land dropping by 7.46[4][22] - Domestic shipping indices showed mixed results, with SCFI up by 7.21% and BDI down by 3.46%[4][31] Price Movements - Prices for crude oil, coking coal, rebar, and aluminum have decreased, with Brent crude down by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel[5][34] - Coking coal futures fell by 5.61% to 815.5 yuan per ton, while LME copper and zinc prices increased by 1.76% and 0.78% respectively[5][34] - Agricultural product prices continued a seasonal decline, with pork prices up by 0.05% and egg prices down by 1.74%[5][37] Logistics and Transportation - Subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, with a drop of approximately 128,700 and 112,900 passengers respectively[6][39] - Domestic flight numbers increased by 1.73%, while international flights decreased by 1.27%[6][39][42] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include the possibility of policy effects falling short of expectations and liquidity tightening beyond forecasts[6][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire stakes in four subsidiaries from its controlling shareholder, China Gold Group, which is expected to enhance its gold production capacity and profitability [3][10]. - The projected net profit for the company is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 47.45 billion, 62.45 billion, and 73.51 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.13%, 31.61%, and 17.71% [10][12]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 13.90 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 674 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 4.847 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 41.5% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.86 [2]. Acquisition Details - The company intends to acquire a 49.33625% stake in Inner Mongolia Jintao, which produced 1.37 tons of gold in 2024, and has total audited assets of 747 million yuan [4]. - The acquisition of an 80% stake in Hebei Dabaoyang, which produced 0.28 tons of gold in 2024, is also planned, with total audited assets of 235 million yuan [5]. - Additionally, the company aims to acquire a 70% stake in Liaoning Tianli, which produced 1.23 tons of refined gold in 2024, with total audited assets of 490 million yuan [6]. - Lastly, a 70% stake in Liaoning Jinfeng, which produced 0.28 tons of gold in 2024, is included in the acquisition plan, with total audited assets of 149 million yuan [9]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 65.56 billion yuan in 2024 to 77.40 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.88% [12][15]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.70 yuan in 2024 to 1.52 yuan in 2027 [12][15]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is anticipated to decrease from 19.90 in 2024 to 9.17 by 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [12][15].

Core Insights - The credit bond market has shown unexpectedly optimistic performance, with significant gains surpassing those of interest rate bonds, particularly from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [9][24] - The strategy of focusing on weak-quality city investment bonds with a duration of 2-4 years has been widely adopted by institutions, with an extension to around 5 years observed in recent trading [10][24] - The absolute yield and credit spread protection for credit bonds are currently insufficient, indicating a cautious approach is warranted despite the market's enthusiasm [4][24] Credit Strategy Insights - The yield of AAA and AA+ medium-term notes decreased significantly, with 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y yields down by 1.5BP, 0.4BP, 2.4BP, 2.8BP, and 5.2BP respectively during the observed period [9][11] - The performance of weak-quality city investment bonds in the 2-5 year range has been particularly strong, with declines in yields exceeding those of comparable medium-term notes [10][24] - The market for super long-term credit bonds has shown signs of improvement, with a notable increase in buying interest, especially for real estate bonds and weak-quality city investment bonds [21][24] Market Dynamics - The average transaction duration for credit bonds has lengthened, reflecting a shift towards a more optimistic market sentiment [18][24] - The proportion of transactions below valuation for super long-term credit bonds has improved, with a significant focus on real estate bonds, which have seen yield declines of over 20BP [21][24] - The current market conditions suggest that there is still room for exploration in city investment bonds with yields above 2.2%, which constitute about 10% of the public city investment bonds [24]

行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2611.24 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2881.99 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2110.64 | 行业相对指数表现 -27% -23% -19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2025-05-26 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《猪价持续微利运行，产能去化暂缓》 - 2025.05.13 农林牧渔行业报告 （2025.05.17-2025.05.23） 猪价偏弱运行，供应压力增大 ⚫ 行情回顾：继续调整 农林牧渔（申万）行业指数下跌 0.36%，在申万 31 个一级行业中 涨幅排名第 15 位。子板块中，在宠物上涨的带动下，动物疫 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][35] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight decline of 0.36%, ranking 15th among 31 primary industries in the market [4][12] - The pig price has been weak, with an average price of 14.46 CNY/kg as of May 23, 2025, down 1.12% from the previous week [5][16] - The supply pressure in the pig market is increasing due to high historical weights of pigs being marketed and a stable breeding sow inventory [5][18] - The profitability of self-bred pigs is around 48 CNY per head, which has decreased by 32 CNY per head compared to the previous week [17][19] - The white feather chicken market is stable, with chick prices at 3.00 CNY per chick and a slight increase in meat chicken prices [27][28] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The agricultural sector index has decreased by 0.36%, with the overall market indices also showing declines [12][14] - The performance of sub-sectors varies, with the pet sector showing resilience while meat chicken and seed sectors have faced more significant adjustments [13] 2. Livestock Industry Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average pig price is 14.46 CNY/kg, reflecting a downward trend since mid-May [5][16] - Supply pressures are attributed to high weights of marketed pigs and a stable breeding sow inventory [5][18] - Profit margins for self-bred pigs are decreasing, while external pig purchases are currently unprofitable [17][19] 2.2 White Feather Chicken - Chick prices remain stable, with a slight increase in meat chicken prices [27][28] - The industry is observing a shift towards domestic breeding due to uncertainties in imports caused by avian influenza outbreaks [27][28] 3. Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have shown a slight decline, while soybean prices have increased by 2.1% [30] - Cotton prices have risen slightly, and corn prices have remained stable with minor fluctuations [30][31]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《4 月经济呈供给驱动特征，应超前关 注科技产业对投资的补充》 - 2025.05.20 宏观研究 5 月经济高频数据环比回暖 投资要点 （1）5 月经济景气度环比回升，稳增长政策效果仍需释放 从高频数据来看，5 月经济景气度环比有所回暖，稳增长政策效 果显现，工业需求环比回升，消费具有季节性回升特点，面对外部高 不确定性，短期市场微观主体情绪趋于谨慎，生产表现为以订单驱动 的特点，生产表现相对平稳，但整体表现为供过于求的态势，有效需 求不足仍是制约经济的核心矛盾，带来要素市场景气度回落，PPI 同 比增速跌幅或进一步扩大，符合我们在报告《4 月经济呈现供给驱动 特征，应超前关注科技产业对投资的补充》的基准假设。在此情境下， 基于避险和对政策不确定性的恐慌，在美国对我国加征关税的 90 天 豁免期内，美国或加大进口，以避免未来不确定性影 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Congress passed a fiscal and tax reform reconciliation bill, projected to increase government debt by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, with current debt exceeding $36 trillion[3] - The market sentiment is mixed due to concerns over the deficit, leading to a further decline in the U.S. dollar index[9] - Historical data indicates that during dollar depreciation phases, non-U.S. equities tend to outperform U.S. equities, and commodities like copper, gold, and oil show upward trends[9] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, with the implementation deadline pushed to July 9 after negotiations[2] - The ongoing tariff discussions are seen as part of Trump's negotiation strategy rather than a definitive policy shift[2] - The focus is shifting from tariffs to fiscal stimulus, although concerns about the deficit complicate market reactions[9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 24 are projected at 227,000[23] - The April core PCE price index year-on-year is reported at 2.5%, indicating a slight decrease from previous levels[23] - The U.S. housing market shows signs of recovery, with a 6.1% increase in the April pending home sales index[23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company is successfully advancing its new product, Lulule Herbal Health Water, which is positioned in a rapidly growing health beverage market. The competitive landscape is favorable, providing valuable development opportunities. The chairman is personally leading the product development and marketing efforts, indicating the company's commitment to this new line [3][4] - The company is expanding its presence in the southern market by establishing a factory and creating new sales districts. Adjustments to product formulations are being considered to cater to regional taste preferences. The introduction of new products is expected to enhance market penetration and address weaknesses in the southern market [4] - Cost reductions in key raw materials are expected to improve profit margins. The price of wild apricot kernels, a significant ingredient, is projected to decrease, contributing to cost savings and supporting market investments and new product promotions [4] - The company anticipates steady growth in its core product, Almond Milk, with expected revenue of 34.52 billion, 38.02 billion, and 40.07 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.01%, 10.14%, and 5.39%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 7.14 billion, 7.81 billion, and 8.13 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 7.15%, 9.46%, and 4.01% [5][8][10] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 10.54 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 111 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 25.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.47 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is successfully advancing its new product, Lulule Herbal Health Water, which is positioned in a rapidly growing health beverage market. The competitive landscape is favorable, providing valuable development opportunities. The chairman is personally leading the product development and marketing efforts, indicating the company's commitment to this new line [3][4] - The company is expanding its presence in the southern market by establishing a factory and creating new sales districts. Adjustments to product formulations are being considered to cater to regional taste preferences. The introduction of new products is expected to enhance market penetration and address weaknesses in the southern market [4] - Cost reductions in key raw materials are expected to improve profit margins. The price of wild apricot kernels, a significant ingredient, is projected to decrease, contributing to cost savings and supporting market investments and new product promotions [4] - The company anticipates steady growth in its core product, Almond Milk, with a recovery expected in Q2 due to resilient demand. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 34.52 billion, 38.02 billion, and 40.07 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.14 billion, 7.81 billion, and 8.13 billion yuan [8][10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 10.54 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 111 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 25.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.47 [2] Financial Forecast and Key Metrics - Revenue is projected to grow at rates of 5.01%, 10.14%, and 5.39% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit is expected to grow by 7.15%, 9.46%, and 4.01% in the same years. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.68, 0.74, and 0.77 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][11]