发布时间：2025-05-07 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 所有财报季中，一季报业绩最适合采用自下而上视角中"业绩预 期差"策略。以样本个股相对万得全 A 指数获得超额收益的概率为胜 率，2010 年至今一季报业绩超预期个股的胜率均值显著高于其他报告 期。相较之下 A 股市场对年报超预期的反映最为平淡，是 4 个财报季 中业绩超预期胜率最低的。 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《定价权在谁手(1)：庶民的盛宴和春 季躁动下半场》 - 2025.03.18 策略观点 业绩之锚 2：A 股如何定价一季报中的超预期？ ⚫ 投资要点 A 股市场在定价一季报业绩超预期时存在明显行业偏好。对消费 类行业（食品饮料、家用电器、商贸零售）和交易景气逻辑的成长行 业（电子、医药生物、电力设备、国防军工 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [6][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.34 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 9.67%, but achieved a net profit of 355 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company generated revenue of 5.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.40%, although it still faced a net loss of 77.05 million yuan due to challenges in the feed and breeding segments [3][4]. - The feed business showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with a 12.26% increase in external feed sales, despite a 24.98% decline in 2024 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 4.84 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6.9 billion yuan [2]. Financial Performance - The company’s feed business revenue decreased by 24.98% to 15.05 billion yuan in 2024, while the breeding business revenue increased by 48.68% to 7.66 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company expects to sell between 5 to 5.5 million pigs in 2025, with a focus on reducing breeding costs and improving operational efficiency [5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.11 yuan, 0.12 yuan, and 0.71 yuan respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [6][7]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 11.90% in 2025, with a gradual increase in net profit expected in subsequent years [7][9].

证券研究报告：农林牧渔 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-05-07 股票投资评级 增持|维持 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 9.59 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）45.26 / 45.00 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）434 / 432 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 11.04 / 8.24 | | 资产负债率(%) | 69.0% | | 市盈率 | 106.56 | | 第一大股东 | 南方希望实业有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 新希望(000876) 降本增效成果显著，破除困局 ⚫ 事件： 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，其中 24 年全年实现营 业收入 1030.63 亿元，同比下降 27.27%，归母净利 4.74 亿元，同比 增长 90.05%。2025 年一季度，公司实现营业总收入 244.17 亿元，同 比增长 2.13%，归母净利润 4.45 亿，同比扭亏为盈。 ⚫ 点评：降本增效成果显著，饲料及生猪业 ...

证券研究报告：社会服务|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 7997.15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 9343.57 | | 52 周最低 | | 5985.5 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 社会服务 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《三问三答再看政策，全面看好消费 机会》 - 2025.03.18 五一消费数据如何？ ⚫ 事件 经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，五一假期 5 天，全国国内出游 3.14 亿人次，同比增长 6.4%；国内出游总花费 1802.69 亿元，同比 增长 8.0%。我们折算人均花费为 574 元，同比增长 1.5%，五一消费 量价齐升。 ⚫ 投资要点 零售餐饮：以旧 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the acceleration of data value transformation and the empowerment of AI through high-quality datasets, as emphasized during the Digital China Summit [4] - The establishment of high-quality data sets is being actively pursued by various cities, with Guangzhou launching a trusted data space platform and other cities offering subsidies for industry-specific data projects [5] - The report notes the release of 70 key public data demonstration scenarios aimed at enhancing the utilization of public data resources [6] - The first data asset securitization project in the country has been approved, marking a significant step in the marketization of data elements [7] - The establishment of the National Data Development Research Institute aims to support the national strategy and facilitate local and industry development [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index is at 4675.66, with a 52-week high of 5440.49 and a low of 2805.53 [1] Relative Index Performance - The report provides a forecast of relative performance against the CSI 300 index, showing a potential increase of 24% by May 2024, gradually improving to 46% by May 2025 [3] Key Companies and Investment Ratings - Notable companies in the industry include: - Sanwei Tiandi (Buy) with a closing price of 28.88 and a market cap of 2.23 billion - Shanghai Ganglian (Buy) with a closing price of 20.76 and a market cap of 6.62 billion - YunSai ZhiLian (Buy) with a closing price of 23.48 and a market cap of 32.11 billion - Shanda Diwei (Buy) with a closing price of 9.55 and a market cap of 3.82 billion - New Point Software (Buy) with a closing price of 33.00 and a market cap of 10.89 billion [10][12]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook on consumer opportunities, indicating a gradual recovery in consumption trends, supported by various government policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes that the May Day holiday data shows significant growth in both the number of travelers and total spending, suggesting a strong recovery in the consumer sector [6][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Information - Closing index level is 7997.15, with a 52-week high of 9343.57 and a low of 5985.5 [1] Recent Research Insights - The report notes a 6.4% year-on-year increase in domestic travel during the May Day holiday, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, a growth of 8.0% [4][5] - Retail and catering sectors showed a 6.3% increase in sales, with specific categories like home appliances and automobiles seeing growth rates of 15.5% and 13.7% respectively [5][6] Investment Recommendations and Focused Targets - The report suggests focusing on cyclical sectors such as liquor and catering, which are expected to benefit from economic recovery [9] - Recommended stocks include Yum China, Haidilao, and various tourism and hotel companies [9]

证券研究报告：农林牧渔 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-05-07 股票投资评级 增持|维持 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 9.59 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）45.26 / 45.00 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）434 / 432 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 11.04 / 8.24 | | 资产负债率(%) | 69.0% | | 市盈率 | 106.56 | | 第一大股东 | 南方希望实业有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 新希望(000876) 降本增效成果显著，破除困局 ⚫ 事件： 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，其中 24 年全年实现营 业收入 1030.63 亿元，同比下降 27.27%，归母净利 4.74 亿元，同比 增长 90.05%。2025 年一季度，公司实现营业总收入 244.17 亿元，同 比增长 2.13%，归母净利润 4.45 亿，同比扭亏为盈。 ⚫ 点评：降本增效成果显著，饲料及生猪业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [9][15]. Core Views - The traditional cable business is expected to see marginal improvement, while the battery business is anticipated to recover from losses. The company is actively expanding its AI business [3]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, but a net loss of 320 million yuan, a significant decline of 199.5% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 showed revenue of 7.87 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [3][4]. - The company is benefiting from the increasing demand for reliable power systems, particularly in the nuclear power sector, as confirmed by the approval of five nuclear power projects in April 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 4.55 yuan - Total market capitalization: 10.1 billion yuan - Total shares outstanding: 2.219 billion shares - Debt-to-asset ratio: 78.6% [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit of 50 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.6% [3]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 10.7% and 0.9%, respectively, with slight changes compared to the previous year [4]. Business Segments - The smart cable network business generated revenue of 22.703 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, but the net profit decreased by 70.1% due to rising copper prices and intense competition [5]. - The smart battery segment saw revenue of 1.65 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 180.5%, but incurred a net loss of 690 million yuan [6]. - The smart airport business achieved revenue of 1.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, with a net profit of 120 million yuan [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 29.74 billion yuan, 33.90 billion yuan, and 38.36 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 590 million yuan, 820 million yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [9][15]. Core Views - The traditional cable business is expected to see marginal improvement, while the battery business is anticipated to recover from losses. The company is actively expanding its AI business [3]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, but a net loss of 320 million yuan, a significant decline of 199.5% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 showed revenue of 7.87 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [3][4]. - The company is benefiting from the increasing demand for reliable power systems, particularly in the nuclear power sector, as confirmed by the approval of five nuclear power projects in April 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 4.55 yuan - Total market capitalization: 10.1 billion yuan - Total shares outstanding: 2.219 billion shares - Debt-to-asset ratio: 78.6% [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 84.6% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 10.7% and 0.9%, respectively, with slight changes compared to the previous year [4]. - The smart cable network business generated revenue of 22.703 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, but the net profit decreased by 70.1% [5]. Business Segments - The smart battery segment saw revenue of 1.65 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 180.5%, but incurred a net loss of 690 million yuan [6]. - The smart airport business achieved revenue of 1.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, with a net profit of 120 million yuan [8]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 29.74 billion yuan, 33.90 billion yuan, and 38.36 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 590 million yuan, 820 million yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan [9][11]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17, 12, and 9 times, respectively [9].

证券研究报告：计算机|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4675.66 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5440.49 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2805.53 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 -24% -17% -10% -3% 4% 11% 18% 25% 32% 39% 46% 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:孙业亮 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110002 Email:sunyeliang@cnpsec.com 分析师:常雨婷 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080001 Email:changyuting@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《MCP 开启智能体新时代》 - 2025.04.27 数据价值转化加速，高质量数据集赋能 AI 多地市提出建设高质量数据集。4 月 17 日，广州城市可信数据 空间平台正式上线，首批 48 个高质量数据集发布。厦门、武汉等地 提出针对企业 ...