1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market maintained a volatile pattern this week amidst the divergence of macro - data and policy games. Gold may face short - term pressure due to the re - pricing of the Fed's policy path, the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, and the easing of risk - aversion sentiment. However, the weakening of the US dollar's credit and the global de - dollarization trend provide structural support for the gold price. If it corrects to the next integer level, a long - term position can be established using the ratio spread structure. [5] - The global silver market is expected to have a shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025. The demand for silver will continue to grow with the development of new energy, photovoltaic, and electronics, while the supply is relatively limited, supporting the long - term upward trend of silver prices. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Currency Attribute - The US dollar index showed a "first decline then rise" volatile pattern this week. It initially fell below 100 due to tariff uncertainties, then regained momentum after the UK - US trade agreement and the Fed's hawkish signal. The continuous easing of trade tensions pushed the US dollar to stand firm above 100. However, the market is vigilant about the lagged impact of tariff policies. In the short term, attention should be paid to the verification of the "secondary inflation" expectation by relevant data, while in the long - term, debt expansion and the de - dollarization trend still exert downward pressure. [3] 3.2 Financial Attribute - The Fed's May FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate in the target range of 4.25% - 4.5%. Chairman Powell sent a hawkish signal, emphasizing the risk of "simultaneous increase in inflation and unemployment rate" in the coming months due to rising tariff rates. The probability of an interest - rate cut in June dropped to 19.8%, and in July to 59.1%. [3] - The 1 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.05%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.37%. The 10 - year real yield of US Treasuries rose from 2.06% to 2.08%, a total increase of 2 basis points. The yield spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries narrowed slightly to 0.49%. [21] 3.3 Commodity Attribute - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the gold SPDR holdings were 937.94 (unit not specified), slightly lower than the previous week. The silver SLV holdings were 14,020.96 tons, an increase of 11.19 tons from the previous week. [3] - China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for six consecutive months. In April 2025, China's official gold reserves were 73.77 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of the previous month. It is expected that the funds from central banks around the world will maintain a net inflow. [43] 3.4 Macro - financial - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7%, higher than the expected 48.0% but lower than the previous value of 49.0%. Key sub - items showed "stagflation" characteristics. New export orders dropped by 6.5 percentage points to 43.1%, the lowest since May 2020, and the output sub - item dropped from 48.3 to 44, indicating that trade barriers are affecting entrepreneurs' confidence. [4] - The US ISM services PMI in April was 51.6, higher than the expected 50.3 and the previous value of 50.8, the highest since January 2023. The price sub - index reached 65.1, the highest since January 2023, reflecting a significant increase in raw material costs due to tariff hikes. [28] 3.5 Supply - demand Situation - The global silver market has been in shortage for five consecutive years, with an expected shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025. The supply is limited due to limited mine production and recycled silver accounting for only 20% of the supply, while the demand for silver will continue to grow with the development of new energy, photovoltaic, and electronics. [4] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For gold, if it corrects to the lower integer pressure level, a long - term position can be established through the option ratio spread structure. [3] - For silver, considering its recent resistance, when the gold - silver ratio's value center continues to rise and the silver price is at the upper edge of the box range, a collar structure can be used to hedge against the callback risk. If it fully corrects, long positions can be gradually established in batches. [4]

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 观 金 融 周 报 2025年5月12日 [Table_Title] 央行超预期降准和降息，提振国内市场情绪 ——股指期货周报 [table_main] 投资要点： 行情走势：上周沪深 300 指数收于 3846.16 点，较前值上升 2.00%；累计成交 10176 亿元，日均成交 2035 亿元，较前值下降 141 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17919 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是国防军工(6.44%)、通信(5.43%)、 银行(3.98%)、机械(3.82%)、电力设备及新能源(3.80%)；表现较差的前五名行 业分别是医药(0.98%)、农林牧渔(0.84%)、电子元器件(0.72%)、房地产(0.65%)、 消费者服务(0.30%)。 期现基差行情：IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-5.96 点、-0.41 点、 -19.32 点、-25.88 点。前一周同期值分别为-18.57 点、-5.96 点、-41.62 点、-44.72 点。 跨期价差行情：IF 合约次月-当月、当季-次季、次季-当季价差分别为-31.60 点、-6 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - **Industry Investment Ratings**: Not provided - **Core Views**: The report analyzes the crude oil and polyester industries, suggesting that crude oil has a long - term downward trend in the price center but a short - term rebound, while polyester will experience short - term high - level fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term price center moves down, but short - term rebound due to improved macro - sentiment from Sino - US talks and domestic policy stimulus, though the long - term downward path is established [3]. Logic - The short - term high - volatility operation is driven by low current crude oil and refined oil inventories and good refinery procurement. However, OPEC+ over - production will not slow down, and new production in Guyana in Q3 will put pressure on oil prices later [3]. Market Conditions - The market structure briefly recovered, but the spot structure did not improve synchronously. US inventories are decreasing slightly, refinery feedstock remains high, and refinery profits are at a medium - high level, supporting normal procurement [5][13][20]. - Refined oil demand is better than expected, with high inventory depletion of gasoline and diesel, and neutral crude oil inventory, which supports the price bottom - up rebound [24]. Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - Short - term high - level fluctuations, with limited long - term upward space. The short - term demand exists, but the long - term upward drive is insufficient [3]. Logic - In May, downstream speculative inventory was active, demand is short - term, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but later high processing fees may reduce maintenance, and high inventory of finished products and raw materials will affect inventory accumulation [3]. - Coal prices are low, coal - based production starts to increase again, supply is high, inventory depletion is postponed, and imports increase slightly, so ethylene glycol will remain volatile [3]. Market Conditions - PX outer - market price is $748, PXN rises to $189. PTA basis increased due to pre - holiday restocking but then fell back. PTA supply is low, and ethylene glycol production starts to increase [29][35]. - Terminal orders are low, but inventory accumulation willingness has increased. Downstream production remains at a high level, but profits are low, and inventory pressure is increasing [43][49]. - Downstream inventory depletion is obvious, but profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable, and polyester prices are in low - level fluctuations [51][57].

需求预期悲观，钢材市场延续弱势 东海黑色金属周度策略 东海期货研究所黑色策略组 2025-05-12 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：liuhf@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 武冰心 从业资格证号：F03118003 电话：021-80128600-8619 邮箱：wubx@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黑色策略 | 品种 | 钢材 | 铁矿石 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 区间震荡 | 偏空 | | 逻辑 | 5月份为钢材市场需求淡季，小长假之后钢材需 | 本周铁水产量继续回升，且盈利钢厂占比也回升2.59个 | | | 求回落明显。虽然有节假日因素影响，但上半年 | 百分点，短期铁水产量仍将维持高位。不过，鉴于钢材 | | | 顶部应该已经出现。供应方面，因钢厂利润尚可， | 需求回落，铁水产量或已接近顶部区域。发货量和到港 | | | 铁水及成材产量均处于高位，不过随着钢材需求 | 量虽因节假日因素有所回落，但二季度为铁矿石发运 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - Methanol: In the short - term, the price will fluctuate weakly. Although the supply pressure will be briefly relieved due to planned maintenance of inland plants, there is still downward pressure in the medium - to - long term [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): The supply pressure is relieved in the short - term due to maintenance, but the downstream demand is currently weak and stable. The fundamentals are under pressure in May as production increases and demand remains weak [22]. - Polyethylene (PE): Short - term maintenance increases, downstream demand weakens as expected. Supply pressure is somewhat relieved, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [40]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Supply** - Domestic methanol device capacity utilization is 89.97%, a 4.9% week - on - week increase, with most devices restored and sufficient supply. However, next week's methanol production will significantly decrease due to planned restart of some devices and maintenance of others [4]. - Import to - port volume increased significantly. From April 25th to May 8th, the total imported cargo volume was 50.22 tons, and the expected arrival from May 9th to May 15th is 22.4 tons [4]. - **Demand** - The capacity utilization rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry is 82.48%, a 1.03% week - on - week decrease. Some olefin devices stopped or operated at low loads, and the traditional downstream start - up decreased to varying degrees [4]. - **Inventory** - Both inland and port inventories increased. The total port inventory is 56.19 tons, a 4.56% week - on - week increase, and the production enterprise inventory is 30.39 tons, a 7.26% increase from the previous period [4]. - **Spread** - Coal prices decreased by 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 196 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan/ton week - on - week decrease. The port spot is stable with a slight upward trend, the near - month contract is strong, the expectation is weak, and the 5 - 9 spread is stable with a weakening trend [4]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Supply** - This week's (20250502 - 0508) domestic polypropylene production was 77.98 tons, a 5.25 - ton increase from last week. Due to concentrated maintenance plans, the weekly production will decrease in the next cycle [22]. - **Demand** - The average start - up of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 49.50%. The raw material inventory days of large enterprises in the plastic - woven sample decreased by 1.18% week - on - week, and that of BOPP sample enterprises decreased by 1.35% week - on - week [22]. - **Spread** - Due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices, cost - profit margins were repaired to varying degrees. The oil - to - PP profit is 355 yuan/ton, a 280 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the profit of externally - purchased propylene is - 877 yuan/ton, a 130 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase; the PDH profit is - 731 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [22]. - **Inventory** - Polypropylene commercial inventory increased by 16.43% from the previous period, the total production enterprise inventory increased by 19.76% week - on - week, the sample trader inventory increased by 10.23% week - on - week, and the sample port warehouse inventory increased by 2.23% week - on - week [22]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Supply** - This week's (20250502 - 0508) polyethylene production was 64.89 tons, a 0.95% decrease from last week. Next week's production is estimated to decrease by 2.56% compared to this week [40]. - **Demand** - The overall start - up rate of polyethylene downstream industries is 38.69%, a 0.2% decrease from last week. The overall start - up rate of agricultural films decreased by 3.95% from the previous period, while the start - up rates of some other segments had slight changes [40]. - **Spread** - The oil - to - PE cost - profit margin increased by 18 yuan/ton to about 215 yuan/ton, with a relatively high valuation. The coal - to - PE profit is around 1140 yuan/ton. The import profit of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE increased compared to the previous period, and some HD and LD varieties have import profits [40]. - **Inventory** - The production enterprise sample inventory is 57.54 tons, a 38.99% increase from the previous period. The social sample warehouse inventory is 61.17 tons, a 1.98% increase from the previous period [40].

东 海 研 究 东 海 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月12日 [Table_Title] 4月通胀环比回升且符合市场预期 [table_main] [Table_Report] 4月CPI同比降幅维持不变且符合市场预期。上游端国际大宗商品价格总体有所下降，但 内需型商品价格在基建以及消费等内需政策支持下整体有所改善，价格中枢短期变化不 大，PPI降幅高于市场预期；4月份，消费政策刺激加强而且由于食品价格以及服务价格回 升，CPI环比上升，同比降幅维持不变且符合市场预期，但短期通胀仍旧较低。目前随着 天气回暖，基建项目开工有所加快，钢材、水泥等需求逐步恢复，但房地产需求仍旧偏弱， 国内工业品需求整体偏弱；短期随着美国对中国加征高额关税，内需型商品价格在消费等 内需政策支持下整体有所改善，价格中枢短期变化不大。国外由于及OPEC+增产以及美国 关税政策导致需求预期下降，原油价格整体下降；海外商品需求上升、美元走弱以及美国 加征关税导致成本上升，有色价格整体震荡反弹；但4月之后随着美国"对等关税"政策 落地，美国进口成本大幅上升，海外商品价格中枢整体上移。整体来看，上游国际大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term tin prices will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term sentiment boost from Sino - US negotiations, while the news of Wa State's resumption of production and the risk of weakening demand on the margin will exert pressure [2][56]. Summary by Directory 1. When - week Macro Data/Events - From May 12th to May 16th, there are multiple important economic data releases and speeches from central bank officials, including Japan's April economic observer outlook index, the eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index, and US inflation data for April [4]. 2. Tin Concentrate: Pay Attention to the News of Wa State's Resumption of Production - From May 6th to May 9th, the processing fees of tin concentrate remained unchanged compared with last week. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,700 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin concentrate in Jiangxi and Hunan was 8,700 yuan/ton [6]. - In March, the total import volume of tin concentrate was 8,323 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. The import volume from Myanmar dropped significantly by 87% to 2,252 tons, while that from Congo (Kinshasa) was 2,439 tons (2,551 tons in the same period last year), and the import from Australia decreased slightly to 1,084 tons (1,188 tons last year) [6]. 3. Refined Tin: Low Smelter Operating Rate, Import Window Opened and then Closed - From May 6th to May 9th, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 57.16%, remaining at a low level due to raw material shortages, far lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2024 [9]. - In March, the import volume of tin ingots was 2,101 tons, a year - on - year increase of 147%, reaching a historical high for the same period. From May 6th to May 9th, the import profit and loss fluctuated between - 4,545 and 1,134 yuan, and the import window opened. In March, Indonesia exported 8,780 tons of refined tin, a 50% increase compared with the same period last year [10]. 4. Tin Solder - In March 2025, the overall sample operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises rebounded to 75.81%, showing significant improvement compared with February [17]. - As of February 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global semiconductor sales was 17.1%, remaining at a high level. On May 2nd, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached 4,397 points, showing a recent rebound. In March, China's semiconductor production was 41.97 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, and the export of integrated circuits was 28.797 billion, a year - on - year increase of 25.12% [25]. - In March, the production of mobile phones was 137 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; the production of computers was 3.212 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; and the production of optoelectronic devices was 163.9 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Attention should be paid to the impact of AI concepts and policies on consumer electronics consumption [26]. - In March, the domestic production of photovoltaic cells was 78.444 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%, and the export volume of photovoltaic modules was 954 million, a year - on - year increase of 85%. As of May 9th, the operating rate of domestic photovoltaic glass was 70.34%, a slight increase of 0.9%, and the inventory turnover days of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 26.68 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.18% [33][34]. 5. Tin Chemicals - As of May 9th, the weekly operating rate of PVC rebounded to 80.34%, a 1.01% increase from last week. The weekly profit of the ethylene method was - 652 yuan/ton, and that of the calcium carbide method was - 705 yuan/ton, with production profits remaining in a large - scale loss [39]. - As of May 11th, the number of property transactions in 30 cities was 12,718, showing a seasonal decline and a significant year - on - year decline compared with 20,706 in the same period last year. From January to March, the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.13705 billion square meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.5%, and the cumulative value of real estate completion area in March was 130.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.3% [39]. 6. Inventory: Weekly Social Inventory Increased after Decreasing - From May 2nd to May 9th, the social inventory of tin ingots increased by 360 tons to 10,193 tons, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 143 tons to 8,402 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 50 tons to 2,705 tons [47]. 7. Shanghai Tin: Pay Attention to Sino - US Trade Negotiations, Short - term Fluctuation - From May 6th to May 9th, the weighted open interest of Shanghai tin increased from 53,905 lots to 57,275 lots. Tin prices fluctuated, and the open interest increased slightly [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The substantial progress of the China-US trade talks has boosted the overall global risk appetite, and the domestic risk appetite is also expected to be favorably affected in the short term. For assets, the stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are expected to be weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are expected to oscillate, and all are under cautious observation [3]. - The demand for steel is expected to be weak, and the prices of steel futures and spot have widened their decline. The prices of ferrous alloys are expected to oscillate within a range. The prices of energy - chemical products have rebounded slightly due to the China - US trade talks, but there are still long - term downward pressures. Non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate, and the short - term trends are affected by the China - US talks and other factors [6][9][13]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US trade talks ended positively, and details will be announced on Monday. Domestically, China's exports in April exceeded expectations, and the China - US high - level talks in Switzerland achieved substantial progress. The stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are oscillating, all under cautious observation [3]. - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and software development, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The China - US talks and loose monetary policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market oscillated last week. Economic data shows resilience, and the market is re - pricing the Fed's policy path. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is under short - term observation [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets were weak last Friday. In May, it enters the off - season for steel demand. The apparent consumption of 5 major steel products decreased, and inventory started to rise. The supply also decreased slightly. Short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Steel demand has weakened, and although the iron - water output is still high, it is not supported by demand. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron)**: The price of silicon manganese rebounded slightly, and that of silicon iron declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The China - US talks and domestic policy stimuli have improved the macro - sentiment, and oil prices have rebounded. However, the long - term downward path has been established, and the oil price will be under pressure in the later period but will continue to have high volatility in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: The absolute price of asphalt has rebounded due to the progress of the trade agreement. The inventory removal has stagnated, the supply is low, and the demand has been slightly boosted. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: PX has many self - maintenance periods and follows the polyester chain to rise. It will continue to be in short supply in the later period and will maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream demand for PTA exists in the short term, but there are limitations to its long - term upward space. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory removal is postponed. It will continue to oscillate [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream processing profit of short - fiber is decreasing, and there is a risk of a decline in the high - operating rate. It will maintain a high - level range oscillation [10]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol has increased, and the supply pressure is prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and has downward pressure in the long term [11]. - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has been relieved, but the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [11]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream of LLDPE is basically stable, and the supply has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate weakly before the holiday and requires cautious observation [13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks may boost the market sentiment in the short term. The copper price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for short positions can be sought in the medium term [13]. - **Aluminum**: The trade agreement between the US and the UK has a short - term positive impact on the market sentiment. The aluminum price rebound is approaching the end. Short - term long positions should be gradually liquidated, and short - position opportunities can be sought after the situation becomes clear [13]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, affected by the China - US talks, the resumption of production in Wa State, and the weakening demand [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, China's exports decreased but exceeded market expectations due to factors such as the overseas rush for trans - shipment. Imports were better than expected, and the trade surplus remained large. In the future, exports may be affected by US high - tariff policies, but there is still support from exports to ASEAN and Belt and Road countries. Import growth is expected to pick up, and net exports will support the economy in the short term [5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Overall Import and Export - In April, the total import and export volume (in US dollars) was 535.205 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The top trading partners were ASEAN (trade volume of 93.5 billion, up 13.61% year - on - year, accounting for 17.47%), the EU (66.8 billion, down 0.57%, 12.47%), the US (45.6 billion, down 19.17%, 8.52%), South Korea (28.2 billion, up 3.73%, 5.28%), and Japan (27.3 billion, up 4.98%, 5.11%) [5] 3.2 Exports - In April, exports were 315.692 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%, far exceeding expectations. The top export destinations were ASEAN (export volume of 60.4 billion, up 20.8%, accounting for 19.12%), the EU (46.7 billion, up 8.27%, 14.8%), the US (33 billion, down 21.03%, 10.46%), Japan (13.3 billion, up 7.77%, 4.21%), and South Korea (12.7 billion, down 0.3%, 4.03%). The main export products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 60.4%, up 10.1%), among which electronic components accounted for 13.66% [6] 3.3 Imports - In April, imports were 219.512 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 4.1 percentage points, better than expected. The top import sources were ASEAN (import volume of 33.2 billion, up 2.5%, accounting for 15.11%), the EU (20 billion, down 16.46%, 9.13%), Chinese Taipei (19.7 billion, up 12.73%, 8.98%), South Korea (15.5 billion, up 7.28%, 7.08%), Japan (14 billion, up 2.47%, 6.39%), and the US (12.6 billion, down 13.83%, 5.72%). The main import products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 38.99%, up 5.4%), among which integrated circuits accounted for 40.68% [6] 3.4 Trade Balance - The trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, up 33.61% year - on - year, higher than expected. The largest trade surplus was in automobiles (9.164 billion, up 1.508 billion), and the largest trade deficits were in crude oil (25.3 billion, down 3 billion), integrated circuits (19.2 billion, up 2.6 billion), and agricultural products (7.2 billion, up 2.6 billion) [6][7]