宏观偏暖，短期反弹 东海期货沪锡周度分析 有色及新能源策略组 2025-4-21 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 彭亚勇 分析师： 从业资格证号：F03142221 投资咨询证号：Z0021750 电话：021-80128600-8628 邮箱：pengyy@qy.qh168.com.cn 观点总结 | 宏观 | 特朗普态度有所软化，表示中美一直在接触，并且不会再加关税，甚至可能降低关税，有助于提升市场 风险偏好；另外，国内政策进一步加码预期强烈，国务院常委会也给予支持，在合适时机出台政策，目 前市场预期月底降准降息。 | | --- | --- | | | 供应端，刚果金锡精矿分阶段恢复运营，4月1日缅甸佤邦曼相矿区复产会议推迟，目前暂无消息，云南江 西两地炼厂开工率较上周小幅回升至56.96%，但依然处于低位，进口亏损大幅缩窄，进口窗口小幅打开。 | | 供应 | | | | 需求方面，关注AI概念、电子产品消费政策对实际需求带来的影响； 3月手机产计录得1.37亿台，同比增 | | 需求 | 长0.4%；计算机产量为3212万台， 同比上升7.8%；光电子器件产量录得1639亿只， 同 ...

政策预期偏强，钢材期现货市场延续震荡 东海黑色金属周度策略 东海期货研究所黑色策略组 2025-04-21 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：liuhf@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 武冰心 从业资格证号：F03118003 电话：021-80128600-8619 邮箱：wubx@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黑色策略 | 品种 | 钢材 | 铁矿石 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 区间震荡 | 区间震荡 | | 逻辑 | 本周钢材需求继续好转，且未来1-2周仍有回升 | 本周铁水产量小幅回落，不过近期钢厂利润尚可，钢材 | | | 空间，但中期看已经接近顶部，5月份之后料回 | 需求也在旺季之中，铁水产量仍有回升空间。但中期看 | | | 落。钢厂利润短期尚可，生产积极性不减，供应 | 已经接近顶部区域。供应方面，本周主流矿发运小幅回 | | | 处于相对高位。短期市场在走利润压缩逻辑。目 | 落，且按照季节性因素来看，未来几周发运量 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty of the US economy has increased, and the US dollar has continued to decline. The global risk appetite has generally increased, while the Chinese economy has shown signs of accelerated recovery, and policy support expectations have strengthened, providing strong support for the short - term risk appetite of the domestic market [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to have a short - term volatile rebound; bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term; commodities show different trends in different sectors, with black metals being weakly volatile, non - ferrous metals having a volatile rebound, energy and chemicals having a volatile rebound, and precious metals rising [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US President's threat to dismiss the Fed Chairman has increased the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy. Due to tariff issues, the economic uncertainty has increased, and the US dollar index has continued to decline [2]. - Domestic: China's GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The State Council's executive meeting indicated an increase in counter - cyclical adjustment to support employment and foreign trade, strengthening policy support expectations [2]. Stock Index - Affected by the hotel, tourism, food processing, and agricultural sectors, the domestic stock market declined slightly. However, strong economic data, policy support, and the US President's softened attitude towards tariffs provided support for the domestic market, suggesting short - term cautious long positions [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs. The US government's credit damage, geopolitical risks, and the Fed Chairman's hawkish stance have supported the strong performance of gold. Silver may follow gold in high - level oscillations but faces greater downward pressure [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continued to decline slightly, with low trading volumes. Policy expectations have increased. Demand has improved, but the "buy - on - rising" mentality and the seasonal transition have led to differentiated trading. Supply is at a high level, and short - term steel markets are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices declined slightly. Iron - water production remained high, and supply is expected to increase further. Short - term policy expectations support prices, but a long - term bearish view is held if steel demand remains weak [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices were flat. Demand was fair, and supply showed different trends. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5][6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices have rebounded in the short term but are expected to be bearish in the long term due to the expected increase in OPEC supply [8]. - **Asphalt**: It has stabilized slightly following oil prices. The market shows regional differences, and its fundamentals mainly follow oil price fluctuations [8]. - **PX**: It has rebounded with oil prices but remains in a weak oscillation pattern due to weak supply and demand [8]. - **PTA**: It maintains a weak oscillation pattern due to limited improvement in terminal orders and increased downstream inventory pressure [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It continues to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak supply - demand conditions [10][11]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with limited export volume and weak domestic demand [11]. - **Methanol**: The 05 contract oscillates, while the 09 contract may present short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - **PP**: It is expected to have an oscillatory recovery due to reduced supply pressure [11]. - **LLDPE**: The near - month contract is supported by low inventory, while the 09 contract faces medium - to - long - term pressure [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by strong demand and policy expectations, copper prices are expected to continue their oscillatory rebound [12]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic fundamentals are good, with significant inventory reduction. It has short - term rebound potential but is bearish in the medium term [12][13]. - **Tin**: Supply is gradually recovering but remains at a low level, and demand is differentiated. Tin prices are expected to rebound in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Low domestic inventory and potential planting delays support the price. The market's concern about the export supply chain has decreased [14]. - **Soybean Meal**: The recovery of domestic oil - mill operations is slow. The futures are supported, and the monthly spread is expected to be repaired [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is in the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has decreased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil is decreasing, while rapeseed oil faces high - inventory pressure and is at risk of a price decline [15]. - **Palm Oil**: Domestic inventory is low, and the price is affected by cost and international market conditions [16].

2025年4月15日 研究所晨会观点精萃 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021- ...

关税反复但需求担忧不变，油价保持偏弱高波运行 东海原油沥青周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-14 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 分析师： 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com 王亦路 冯冰 主要内容 原油：关税担忧持续，油价偏弱高波运行 01 沥青：成本塌陷持续，需求低位运行 02 结构继续保持低温 Brent 3月月差 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 23/04 23/07 23/10 24/01 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 25/04 Brent即期价差 -0.30 -0.10 0.10 0.30 0.50 0.70 0.90 18/12 20/12 22/12 24/12 数据来源：钢联，东海期货研究所 Oman 3月月差 -2 ...

东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-14 油价持续保持低位，出口订单部分陷入停滞 东海原油聚酯周度策略 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com 分析师： 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com 王亦路 主要内容 Brent 3月月差 | | 原油 | 聚酯 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 长期中枢下移，短期反弹 关税反复后油价小幅回升，但市场对后期贸易战引起的 | 短期低位震荡 终端订单受到关税影响，对美国订单前期停滞，近期部分重 | | | 需求萎缩担忧仍在，油价短期仍偏弱。但近期美伊谈判 | 启，但新订单情况仍然极差。下游有部分低价投机性囤库， | | | 或导致 伊朗制裁风险再起，阶段性供应减量可能使得 | 但终端开工持续下行，下游开工仍然偏高，库存难以去化， | | | 价格短期波动继续放大，反弹 ...

基本面支撑，价格修复 东海甲醇聚烯烃周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-14 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：fengbf@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F3089928 投资咨询证号： Z0018740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyl@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 甲醇：震荡修复 | 国产供应 | 国内甲醇装置产能利用率88.24%，环比+3.57%；内蒙古宝丰280万吨/年装置投产，内蒙古 | | --- | --- | | | 荣信90装置计划重启，陕西精益26装置短停检修，西北能源30装置计划检修，下周甲醇产 | | | 量继续增加。 | | 进口 | 国际甲醇装置开工79.20%，伊朗地区开工目前增至八成附近。4月4日至4月10日，总进 | | | 口量在17.58万吨，下周期到港预计在18.1万吨，进口依然较少。 | | 需求 | MTO/MTP开工小幅提升，内蒙古宝丰2# 100万吨/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain a cautious long position for the four major A - share stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM); maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and treasury bonds; in terms of ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Although the US tariff risk has been escalating recently and the short - term RMB exchange rate has weakened, the domestic capital market and economic stimulus policies have increased their support, leading to a rebound in the short - term domestic market and a cautious long position for stock indexes. In the bond market, due to increased external risks, greater fluctuations in domestic risk assets, and enhanced expectations of central bank easing, bond prices have rebounded in the short - term with a cautious long position. In the commodity market, although the US dollar has weakened in the short - term, the tariff policy has increased the expectation of an economic recession, resulting in a significant correction in the overall commodity market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - **Stock Market Impact**: On April 7, the rumor that the US would suspend tariffs for 90 days caused market turmoil, with the Nasdaq index rising from a 5% drop to over a 4% increase and the S&P index rising over 3% [4] - **Economic Forecast Adjustment**: On April 7, Goldman Sachs raised the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 45% and lowered the GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 from 1.0% to 0.5% [4] - **Fed's Stance**: On April 9, the Fed meeting minutes showed that most participants believed inflation might be more persistent, and all agreed to keep interest rates unchanged due to high economic uncertainty. Officials expected tariffs to increase inflation this year, with inflation risks skewed upwards and employment risks downwards [4] - **Inflation Data**: On April 10, the US March CPI同比 growth was 2.4%, significantly lower than the previous month and market expectations, leading to increased expectations of Fed rate cuts [5] - **Unemployment Data**: On April 10, the US initial jobless claims were 223,000, in line with expectations [6] - **Consumer Confidence**: On April 11, the preliminary value of the US April Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 50.8, lower than expected, and the one - year inflation expectation was at its highest level since 1981 [6] - **Tariff Exemption**: On April 11 (announced on April 12, US time), the US exempted some products from "reciprocal tariffs" [7] - **EU's Response**: On April 9, the EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on US imports in retaliation for the US tariff on EU steel and aluminum in March. On April 10, the EU agreed to suspend the counter - measures for 90 days [7][8] - **China's Policy Response**: China announced a series of policies to support the domestic economy and capital market, including potential monetary and fiscal policy adjustments, and also took counter - measures against US tariff threats [8][9][10][11][13][14][15] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 14 - 18, a series of economic data will be released, including China's trade data, GDP data, and inflation data from various countries, as well as industrial production and employment data [17] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - **Stock Market**: Most global stock indexes showed fluctuations last week, with some rising and some falling. For example, the Nasdaq index rose 7.29% week - on - week, while the Hang Seng Index fell 8.47% week - on - week [18] - **Bond Market**: Bond yields in different countries changed, with the US 10 - year Treasury yield rising 47 BP week - on - week [18] - **Commodity Market**: Commodity prices also fluctuated. For example, COMEX gold rose 6.89% week - on - week, while ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.88% week - on - week [18] - **Exchange Rate Market**: The US dollar index fell 2.84% week - on - week, and major currency pairs against the US dollar had different trends [18] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - The report presents various high - frequency macroeconomic data charts, including those related to upstream (such as commodity indexes, energy prices), mid - stream (such as iron ore prices, steel production), and downstream (such as real estate sales, automobile sales) sectors [19][46][76] 3.5 Domestic and International Liquidity - **Global Liquidity**: Shown through charts of US Treasury yields and their weekly changes [103] - **Domestic Liquidity**: Demonstrated by charts of central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields and their weekly changes [99][100][101] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - Lists important economic indicators, their previous values, forecast values, and release times from April 14 - 18, 2025, covering multiple countries and regions [117]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the short - term tin price will rebound. The reasons include the end of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, the US delaying the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, which may stimulate market sentiment. The Fed's inflation concerns and potential domestic stimulus policies also boost market sentiment. Additionally, the decline in smelter开工率 and the decrease in inventory contribute to the short - term price rebound [2][56]. Summary by Directory 1. When - week Macro Data/Events - On April 14 (Monday, 23:00), the US March New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation will be released. - On April 15 (Tuesday, 17:00), Germany and the Eurozone's April ZEW economic sentiment index and economic current situation index will be announced, and at 20:30, the US April New York Fed manufacturing index will be released. - On April 16 (Wednesday, 10:00 and 20:30), domestic first - quarter economic data and the US March retail data will be released, and at 21:15, the US March industrial output and capacity utilization will be announced. - On April 17 (Thursday, 01:15 and 20:15), Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Chicago Economic Club, and the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. At 20:30, the US March new housing starts, building permits, and April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will be released. - On April 18 (Friday, 07:30), Japan's March inflation data will be released [4]. 2. Tin Concentrate: Attention to Wabang Resumption News - From April 7 - 11, the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan remained at 12,700 yuan/ton, and that of 60% tin concentrate in Jiangxi and Hunan remained at 8,700 yuan/ton. - The total tin concentrate imports in January and February were 18,587 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50%. The quantity from Myanmar was 4,910 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81%, while imports from Australia increased to 3,840 tons from 1,930 tons in the same period last year [6]. 3. Refined Tin: Smelter Operating Rate Declines, Import Window Remains Closed - From April 7 - 11, the combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 56.75%, a 0.21% decrease from the previous week and a 6.5% decrease from the high in the week of March 7. - The tin ingot imports in January and February were 4,203 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. From April 7 - 11, the import profit and loss fluctuated between - 13,243 and - 6,535 yuan, and the import window remained closed. Indonesia's refined tin exports in February were 3,927 tons, a 150% increase from January [9][10]. 4. Tin Solder: Attention to the Impact of AI and Policies on Consumption - In January, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the solder operating rate dropped to 53.26%. In February, it is expected to rebound to 70.55%. - As of February 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global semiconductor sales was 17.1%. On April 11, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached 3,991 points. - From January to February, China's semiconductor production was 76.72 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and the export of integrated circuits was 47.329 billion, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%. - In January and February, the total mobile phone production was 217 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1%; the computer production was 47 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%; the optoelectronic device production was 266.1 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. - From January to February, the domestic photovoltaic cell production was 87.36 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The export volumes of photovoltaic modules in January and February were 958 million and 713 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 40% and 18%. As of April 11, the domestic photovoltaic glass operating rate was 69.23%, a 0.92% increase from the previous week, and the inventory turnover days of photovoltaic glass enterprises were 25.95 days, a 0.42% decrease from the previous week. - As of April 11, the weekly PVC operating rate was 76.67%, a 3.35% decrease from the previous week. The weekly profit of the ethylene method was - 628 yuan/ton, and that of the calcium carbide method was - 781 yuan/ton. As of April 6, the number of real - estate transactions in 30 cities was 16,788 units, a week - on - week increase and roughly the same as the previous year. From January to February, the cumulative real - estate construction area was 6,059.72 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%, and the cumulative real - estate completion area was 87.64 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6% [23][24][30][37]. 5. Inventory: Weekly Social Inventory Decreases - From April 4 to April 11, the tin ingot social inventory decreased by 342 tons to 11,662 tons, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 310 tons to 9,818 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 150 tons to 3,140 tons [46]. 6. Price: Attention to Tariff Negotiation Progress, Short - term Rebound - From April 7 - 14, the weighted position of Shanghai tin decreased from 90,740 lots to 68,291 lots as the tin price declined. Considering the end of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, potential domestic stimulus policies, the decline in smelter operating rate, and the decrease in inventory, the short - term tin price will rebound [54][56].

贸易局势持续升级，贵金属板块强势上行 东海贵金属周度策略 东海期货研究所宏观策略组 2025-04-14 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 郭泽洋 从业资格证号：F03136719 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：guozy@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黄金：观点总结&操作建议 | | 本周美元指数持续承压，全周呈现震荡走弱态势。特朗普政府反复无常的关税政 策严重冲击市场信心，投资者对美元作为传统避险货币的信任度下降。尽管美国 | | --- | --- | | 货币属性 | 财长重申强势美元政策立场，但关税博弈引发的贸易摩擦担忧持续发酵，美国3月 | | | CPI意外回落巩固鹰派预期，4月消费者信心指数恶化叠加12个月通胀预期飙升继 | | | 续升温滞胀预期，美元持续承压跌破100关口. | | | 当前市场对美联储降息的押注与官方政策信号呈现显著分歧，CME数据显示交易员 | | 金融属性 | ...