东海贵金属周度策略 东海期货研究所宏观策略组 2025-04-28 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 政策信号错综复杂，黄金价格大幅震荡 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 郭泽洋 从业资格证号：F03136719 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：guozy@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黄金：观点总结&操作建议 | 货币属性 | 本周美元指数呈现剧烈震荡走势，周初因特朗普施压美联储降息并质疑其政策独 立性，市场恐慌情绪加剧拖累美指跌至97.923新低。随后特朗普态度转向缓和， | | --- | --- | | | 明确无意解雇鲍威尔并释放贸易摩擦缓和信号，美元指数于周三反弹至99.86。周 | | | 五美元指数微涨0.07%并实现三周来首次周度上行，市场对美联储独立性担忧与政 | | | 策预期差的反复博弈，但美元中长期信用受损及流动性虹吸效应仍令其上行承压。 | | 金融属性 | 周初特朗普炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔加剧市场对货币政策政治 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 【宏观】 海外方面，美媒称美国考虑对华关税分级方案，美国总统坚称美中正在 进行贸易谈判，此前中国称双方未进行任何经贸谈判，市场暂时预期美国关税将 低于预期；而且美联储官员表示若经济数据明朗，或在 6 月降息，推动降息预期 升温；受此影响，美元和美债收益率短期走弱，全球风险偏好继续升温。国内方 面，中国央行 4 月 MLF 续做规模 6000 亿远超到期量，为政府债发行高峰护航； 而且国内政策支持力度加强以及美国释放同中国贸易缓和信号，短期对国内市场 风险偏好形成较强的支撑。资产上：股指短期震荡反弹，短期谨慎做多。国债短 期高位震荡，谨慎做多。商品板块来看，黑色短期偏弱震荡，短期谨慎观望；有 色短期震荡反弹，短期谨慎做多；能化短期震荡，谨慎做多；贵金属短期高位震 荡，谨慎做多。 【股指】 在 PEEK 材料、电力以及银行等板块的支撑下，国内股市小幅上涨。基 本面上，中国央行 4 月 MLF 续做规模 6000 亿远超到期量，为政府债发行高峰 护航；而且国内政策支持力度加强以及美国释放同中国贸易缓和信号，短期对 国内市场风险偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US continues to release signals of trade relaxation, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The Chinese foreign exchange regulator aims to correct pro - cyclical market behaviors, alleviating the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Domestic policy support and US - China trade relaxation signals strongly support the short - term risk appetite of the domestic market [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; bonds are expected to fluctuate at high levels with cautious long positions; commodities show different trends in sub - sectors, with black metals being weak in the short - term, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals expected to rebound, and precious metals fluctuating at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US tariff policies lead to rising prices, slowing economic activities, and a 16 - month low in business activities. The US President's statements on tariff reduction and exemption boost the US dollar and global risk appetite. Domestic: The Chinese foreign exchange regulator's actions ease RMB exchange rate pressure, and domestic policies and US - China trade signals support the domestic market [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declines slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, agriculture, and hotel tourism. However, short - term risk appetite is supported, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market experiences a significant correction. Factors such as the US government's attitude towards tariffs, the strengthening of the US dollar, and economic data affect the market. In the long - term, the decline of the US government's credit and trade policy uncertainties support the fundamentals of gold, and a correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity. Silver follows gold but faces greater correction pressure [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - The spot and futures prices of steel rebound, and market trading volume recovers. Demand is recovering, and inventory is decreasing, but supply also has room to increase. The short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment, and an interval - oscillation approach is recommended [5]. Iron Ore - The spot and futures prices of iron ore rebound due to macro - sentiment. Its fundamentals are relatively strong. Iron - water production has room for further increase, and supply is expected to rise in the second quarter. An interval - oscillation approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the peak of iron - water production [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are stable. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable, but the production willingness of silicon - manganese enterprises is decreasing. The short - term prices are expected to oscillate within an interval [6][7]. Energy - chemicals Crude Oil - The concern about OPEC's production increase outweighs the impact of potential trade - tariff relaxation, causing the oil price to decline [8]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow the decline of oil prices. The market shows a north - south differentiation, and its fundamentals lack driving forces and mainly follow the movement of crude - oil prices [8]. PX - The external price of PX rebounds with crude oil, but the supply - demand situation is weak. It will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern similar to PTA [8]. PTA - The basis of PTA declines slightly. Although tariff - relaxation news boosts the price, terminal orders are poor, and downstream inventory pressure increases. It will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern [9]. Ethylene Glycol - The de - stocking of port inventory is limited, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The price will continue to oscillate weakly [9]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber rebounds slightly with polyester. However, domestic demand is low, and inventory is accumulating. It will follow the movement of crude oil but with a smaller increase [10][11]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang rises slightly. Inventory shows a slight change, and the 05 contract price will oscillate, while the 09 contract may face supply pressure [12]. PP - The domestic PP market shows a narrow - range adjustment. Although downstream开工 declines, upstream maintenance increases, and supply - side reduction is expected to ease the pressure, and the price is expected to repair through oscillation [13]. LLDPE - The PE market price adjusts. Import volume is expected to decline, and the price will oscillate with limited downward space in the short - term, but face pressure from new production capacity in the long - term [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Global manufacturing PMI is better than expected. A copper mine accident and the decline in processing fees affect the market. With strong demand, the inventory of refined copper is decreasing, and the short - term price will continue to rebound [16]. Aluminum - Trump's statement on tariff reduction boosts market sentiment. The domestic fundamentals of aluminum are good, but the long - term trend still depends on tariff negotiations and domestic policies. The short - term price may rebound, but it is bearish in the medium - term [16]. Tin - Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the mining area. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is differentiated. The inventory has decreased significantly, and the short - term price may rebound with limited space [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans rises due to the relaxation of trade tensions and a weak US dollar. The sowing progress is normal [18][19]. Soybean Meal - The slow recovery of oil - mill operations has led to a significant increase in the spot basis. With the arrival of imported soybeans and the resumption of operations, the high basis is expected to decline. Near - month contracts may face limited upside [19]. Vegetable Oils and Meals - Different vegetable oils and meals have different market conditions. For example, soybean oil inventory is decreasing, palm oil demand is expected to be stable, and rapeseed meal is in the demand season but may face inventory risks [20]. Livestock Pigs - The market is mainly trading on seasonal trends. Although there is seasonal demand for piglets, short - term supply pressure may increase, and the price may face pressure around May [21][22]. Corn - The corn market faces upper - limit pressure from weak demand and high inventory and lower - limit support from factors such as low inventory in production areas and policy expectations. The C05 contract may decline to narrow the basis [22].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：feng ...

2025年4月23日 研究所晨会观点精萃 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021- ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 14 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 东 海 研 究 2025年4月21日 美国关税政策有所放松，全球风险偏好 [Table_Title] 整体升温 ——宏观策略周报 [table_main] 投资要点： 宏 观 金 融 周 报 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号： Z0018827 电话：021-880128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 宏 观 分析师： [Table_Report] ➢ 国内方面：经济方面，2025年一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，预期5.1%，前值5.4%，大幅高于 市场预期；主要由于消费增长加快、基建投资加速、制造业投资保持高速增长，而且抢 出口效应导致净出口远超预期，一季度经济增速保持强劲且高于市场预期，经济增长开 局良好。虽然美国对中国加征关税持续升级，但美国批准对从中国进口的智能手机和电 脑免征关税，提振了全球和国内风险偏好；而且国家将根据形势需要及时推出新的增量 政策，短期对国内市场风险偏好形成较强的支撑，国内风险偏好整体 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 观 金 融 周 报 2025年4月21日 [Table_Title] 美国关税政策有所松动，股指延续反弹 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点： 行情走势：上周沪深 300 指数收于 3772.52 点，较前值上升 1.00%；累计成交 11650 亿元，日均成交 2330 亿元，较前值下降 1979 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17937 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是银行(4.49%)、综合(3.46%)、房 地产(2.92%)、电子元器件(2.87%)、石油石化(1.93%)；表现较差的前五名行业 分别是医药(-0.09%)、交通运输(-0.26%)、国防军工(-1.47%)、消费者服务(- 2.13%)、农林牧渔(-5.07%)。 期现基差行情：IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-8.12 点、-5.24 点、 -8.52 点、-5.29 点。前一周同期值分别为-22.92 点、-14. ...

盘面驱动有限，价格震荡 东海甲醇聚烯烃周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-21 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：fengbf@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F3089928 投资咨询证号： Z0018740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyl@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 甲醇：意外检修支撑价格 | 国产供应 | 国内甲醇装置产能利用率87.37%，环比-0.56%；久泰托县200、内蒙古宝丰一期280装置检 修，内蒙古新奥60、陕西精益26装置计划重启，下周甲醇产量预期减少。 | | --- | --- | | 进口 | 国际甲醇装置开工79.27%，环比上周微幅增加，同比略低1个点。4月11日至4月17日， 总进口量在17.6万吨，下周期到港预计在17.8万吨，进口依然较少。 | | 需求 | 甲醇制烯烃行业产能利用率83.90%，环比-3.62%。受华东MTO企业停车、降负以及西北 MTO企业停车 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 关税或缓和叠加伊核谈判，油价短期反弹 东海原油沥青周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-21 分析师： 分析师： 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com 主要内容 原油：宏观及地缘借力良好供需短期反弹，长期看空不改 01 沥青：短期供需两弱持续，跟随原油小幅反弹 02 现货尚可，结构重回高位 供需水平目前尚可， 月差本周明显回升， 现货结构恢复至1月 末以来最强水平，且 贴水基本保持良好， 与前期预期逻辑劈叉 明显。 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 23/04 23/07 23/10 24/01 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 25/04 Brent 3月月差 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.0 ...

关税地缘同步升温，黄金价格再创历史新高 东海贵金属周度策略 东海期货研究所宏观策略组 2025-04-21 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 郭泽洋 从业资格证号：F03136719 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：guozy@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黄金：观点总结&操作建议 | | 美元指数本周呈现震荡格局，市场持续消化特朗普关税政策对经济的多重冲击， 加剧美元抛售压力。美国初请失业金人数下降显示劳动力市场韧性，美元指数从 | | --- | --- | | 货币属性 | 技术超卖区域获得回补动能。尽管鲍威尔多次淡化降息预期，但市场仍计价美联 | | | 储或被迫在滞胀压力下转向宽松。短期美元或维持低位震荡，关税政策实际经济 | | | 冲击与美联储政策宽松路径的博弈将成为核心定价变量。 | | | 美联储政策路径陷入多方博弈僵局，尽管内部鹰派基调仍占主导，但政治施压与通 | | 金融属性 | 胀 ...