Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite has increased as the US Treasury yield first soared and then declined. Domestically, the central bank's interest - rate cuts and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates have further loosened monetary policy, which is conducive to boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and operation suggestions. For example, the stock index may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the bond market may remain high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to observe carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own characteristics and operation strategies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The deterioration of the US fiscal outlook initially led to concerns about US Treasury demand, causing a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Subsequently, the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax - cut bill by the US House of Representatives and its submission to the Senate for review led to a decline in Treasury yields from recent highs, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: In April, domestic domestic demand slowed down and was lower than expected, while exports far exceeded expectations, and the role of exports in driving the economy remained strong. The central bank cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates by 10BP, and commercial banks reduced deposit rates, further loosening monetary policy, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2][3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as non - metallic materials, batteries, and semiconductor materials, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. Given the current economic situation and loose monetary policy, it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: After the continuous decline of the US dollar, it rebounded, and the gold market rose and then fell on Thursday. Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating promoted safe - haven demand. The passage of Trump's large - scale tax and spending cut bill reduced policy uncertainty. The long - term global de - dollarization trend provides long - term support for gold. For silver, due to the weak manufacturing industry and supply - chain impacts, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [3]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets weakened on Thursday, with low trading volumes. Real - world demand continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons week - on - week. Although steel production increased, considering the high profitability of steel mills, short - term supply may remain high. The short - term steel market may be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly. With high steel - mill profitability, the probability of short - term high iron - water production is high. Although the global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons week - on - week, the arrival volume decreased by 289.6 tons. The port inventory decreased by 119.36 tons on Monday. Iron ore is still strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting on rallies can be continued in the medium term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly, while the futures prices rebounded significantly. The main reasons were the inclusion of manganese ore in high - critical minerals by the South African government and the market rumor of a port workers' strike. However, the impact of these two news remains at the expected level. The fundamentals of silicon manganese are still weak, and its price increase is not expected to be sustainable, and it may fluctuate in the bottom - interval later [6]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ may increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, mainly from Saudi Arabia. Coupled with concerns about economic growth slowdown and weakening energy demand caused by the US - led trade war, the market is worried about oversupply, and the price will remain weakly volatile [7]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates weakly following crude oil. Current demand is average, and the basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly. With the increase in production after profit recovery and the stagnation of inventory reduction, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. PX - PX has declined slightly recently, and the short - term profit is still high, so the later supply will not decrease significantly. With the reduction of PTA maintenance and the increase in demand, PX will remain in a tight - balance situation, and the upstream profit will expand again. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, methanol, PP, LLDPE, and urea has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, PTA may be in a weakly - oscillating pattern; ethylene glycol is expected to remain high - level and weakly volatile; short - fiber will continue to oscillate; methanol prices are still under pressure; the fundamentals of PP are not optimistic; LLDPE price increase is limited; and urea prices are strongly volatile in the short - and medium - term and under pressure in the long - term [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The passage of a tax and spending bill by the US House of Representatives and the manufacturing and service PMI data in the euro area have certain impacts. The social inventory of copper has increased, and the processing fee of copper ore is at a historical low. As it is about to enter the off - season of demand, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs may boost demand. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for shorting can be sought in the medium term [11]. Aluminum - The global primary aluminum supply was in surplus in March and from January to March. China's primary aluminum imports increased in April. The market generally has a bearish view, but it is advisable to be cautious about shorting in the short term and wait for a better entry point [13]. Tin - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar and Congo is in progress, but the supply constraint still exists, and the processing fee of tin concentrate remains at a historical low. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream mainly conducts rigid - demand purchases. The short - term tin price will oscillate, supported by the tight supply of mines and low smelting start - up rates [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures closed higher. The export sales of US soybeans increased in the week ending May 15. The early - stage planting conditions in US soybean - producing areas are mild, and the drought - affected area has decreased [15]. Soybean Meal - The national dynamic full - sample oil - mill operating rate declined slightly. The basis trading volume of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The soybean meal futures price rebounded after testing the 2800 - 2850 range, and the support for the horizontal - range of M09 has been strengthened in the short term [15]. Palm Oil - US policies have caused greater fluctuations in the US soybean - oil market. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit per ton in May. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased from May 1 - 20, and the export also increased [15][16]. Live Pigs - After the May holiday, the terminal demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in selling white - striped pigs. The supply was stable, but as the consumption off - season becomes more prominent, the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the risk of accelerated slaughter by large - scale farms and the pressure of selling large - sized pigs in late May or early June [16]. Corn - The futures price of corn has declined significantly recently, and the spot price has also been affected. With the listing of new - season wheat, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The deep - processing profit has been in continuous losses, and the operating rate has remained stable. The purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn by downstream feed enterprises has increased [16].

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.co ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials' cautious remarks and upcoming US - Japan talks led to a decline in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. EU's 17th round of sanctions on Russia and the possible failure of the Iran nuclear negotiation increased short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Domestically, April's domestic economic data showed a slowdown in domestic demand but strong export performance. The central bank's reduction of LPR rates and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates further eased monetary policy, boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, stocks are expected to be short - term volatile with a short - term cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a short - term high and should be observed cautiously; different commodity sectors also have corresponding short - term trends and operation suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US dollar index fell, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, April's economic data showed a slowdown in domestic demand but strong exports. The central bank's rate cuts and commercial banks' deposit rate cuts boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks are short - term volatile and can be short - term cautiously long; bonds are at a short - term high and should be observed cautiously; black metals are short - term low - level volatile and should be observed cautiously; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and should be observed cautiously; energy and chemicals are short - term volatile and rebounding and can be cautiously long; precious metals are short - term high - level volatile and can be cautiously long [2]. - **Stock Index**: Supported by sectors such as cultivated diamonds, biomedicine, and millet economy, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the slowdown in domestic demand, strong exports, and monetary policy easing, short - term cautious long - position is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices rose. Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating and the weakening of the US dollar supported the rebound of gold prices. The Fed's policy path is the core contradiction. Long - term, the global de - dollarization trend supports gold. For silver, due to geopolitical tensions and manufacturing weakness, short - term observation is recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets were stable, and trading volume increased slightly. Despite the LPR rate cut, market confidence was still weak. Demand was weak, and supply was expected to remain high. Short - term, the steel market may be range - bound [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rebounded slightly. Steel mills' profitability was good, and iron - water production was high. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term, iron ore is strong, and medium - term, a short - position strategy at high prices is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were stable. Demand weakened, and supply continued to decline. Short - term, the prices of ferroalloys will continue to fluctuate [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market focused on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the Iran nuclear negotiation. Oil prices were volatile and slightly higher. Short - term, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [8]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed crude oil and were volatile. Supply was low, and demand was boosted. Inventory transfer was smooth, and short - term, it will follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level [8]. - **PX**: PX prices rose due to many maintenance and the resonance of the polyester sector. It will remain in a tight - balance situation. There may be a risk of decline if downstream production cuts occur [8]. - **PTA**: The increase in US orders was not universal, and the domestic market was in the off - season. There is a risk of short - term correction, and the price center will follow crude oil [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and inventory decreased. However, with low downstream profits, there is a risk of short - term correction, and it will be high - level volatile [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Polyester prices were high - level volatile, and short - fiber prices were slightly lower and overall stable. With stable downstream start - up and expected release of orders, it will continue to be volatile [10]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang was weak. Supply improved marginally, but overall supply was still sufficient, and demand was weak, so the price was under pressure [10]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market price was weak. Although there was a short - term inventory transfer, supply was at a high level, and demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of PP exports on demand [11]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price was adjusted. Import profit was favorable, but overall pressure was not effectively relieved, and the price increase was limited [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price was stable with slight fluctuations. In the short - to - medium term, the price was strong and volatile, but in the medium - to - long term, it was under pressure due to high production and limited demand [12][13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: China's April refined copper production increased. Social inventory increased, and the processing fee was low. With the approaching of the off - season and the impact of tariff reduction, copper prices are short - term volatile, and medium - term short - position opportunities can be sought [14]. - **Aluminum**: The import of primary aluminum increased. Domestic and overseas inventory changes led to a price decline, but the short - term decline space is limited. Short - term short - position should be cautious [14]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist. The mid - term raw material gap is rigidly restricted. Demand is in the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybean prices rose due to concerns about South American crop damage. The future rainfall in Argentina is expected to be normal, and the damage situation needs verification [16]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans is expected to weaken. The supply of oil mills has returned to normal, and the basis is weak [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil increased, and the basis was weak. The inventory of rapeseed oil decreased, but the market was in the off - season. The fundamentals of soybean and rapeseed oil are expected to be weak [17]. - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil continued to rebound. Domestic inventory has a turning point, but import profit is still inverted. International export growth is limited, and the price increase space is restricted [18]. - **Pig**: After the May holiday, terminal demand was weak, and supply was stable. Spot prices are under pressure, and futures prices are expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [18]. - **Corn**: Under the pressure of registered warehouse receipts, corn futures prices declined. Spot prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and futures prices are stable in the 2300 - 2400 range [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, leading to a rise in US Treasury yields and a fall in the US dollar index, with overall global risk appetite increasing. In China, April's domestic demand slowed and was lower than expected, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US helped boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious short - term long position recommended; government bonds are expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound while fluctuating, with a cautious long position recommended; precious metals are expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see approach [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Supported by sectors such as port shipping, real estate, and food processing, the domestic stock market remained basically flat. In April, domestic demand slowed, but exports were strong, and the reduction of tariffs between China and the US helped boost risk appetite. A cautious short - term long position is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuated upward on Monday. Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating drove up safe - haven demand, and the weakening US dollar supported the rebound of gold prices. For gold, if it pulls back to the next integer level, a ratio spread structure can be used to build a long - term position. For silver, due to geopolitical tensions supporting investment demand and safe - haven attributes, but manufacturing weakness and tariff supply - chain impacts suppressing industrial consumption expectations, a short - term wait - and - see approach is maintained [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, domestic steel futures and spot prices continued to decline weakly, and market trading volume was low. In April, macroeconomic data was weak, and real demand remained weak. Although the apparent consumption of the five major varieties increased month - on - month, the absolute volume did not exceed the previous high. Steel supply will remain at a high level in the short term, but in the off - season, future demand may not be sufficient to absorb the current high production. A short - term range - bound trading strategy is recommended [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to be weak. Although iron - water production is currently at a high level, it is likely to decline in the future. This week, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month, but arrivals decreased. In the second quarter, shipments and arrivals may increase. A medium - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the spot price of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while that of silicon iron remained flat. Last week, the output of the five major steel varieties decreased, weakening the demand for ferroalloys. The supply of both silicon manganese and silicon iron continued to decline. A short - term range - bound trend is expected [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is concerned about the cease - fire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. Oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. A short - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [7]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed crude oil and fluctuated without breaking through the previous high. Supply is at a low level, downstream demand has been boosted to some extent, and inventory transfer and destocking are showing signs. It is recommended to follow crude oil and observe the destocking situation in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PX is in a tight - balance situation due to many maintenance activities and the upward trend of the polyester sector. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. - **PTA**: There are uncertainties in new orders from the US, and the domestic sales market has entered the off - season. Downstream production cuts may be implemented, and there is a short - term risk of correction [8][9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to unexpected early maintenance of leading plants, the supply of ethylene glycol has decreased in the short term, and inventory has been destocked. However, downstream low - profit operations may lead to reduced production, and there is a risk of correction in the short term [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Polyester prices remained high and fluctuated, and short - fiber prices followed with a slight decline. In the short term, downstream production will remain stable, and short - fiber prices are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [9]. - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol in Taicang is weak, and the basis is stable. Supply has improved marginally, but overall supply is still sufficient, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [10]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market price is weak. Although there is a short - term inventory transfer due to tariff benefits, supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of PP exports on demand [10]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has adjusted. Although there are some positive factors such as improved export orders, overall pressure has not been effectively relieved, and the increase in price is limited [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is relatively stable, with some local price adjustments. In the short and medium term, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the long term, prices are under pressure due to high production and limited demand [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The overall import tariff rate in the US may increase. Copper social inventory is increasing, and processing fees are at a historical low. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate, and in the medium term, opportunities to short should be sought [12]. - **Aluminum**: Market optimism has faded. Although there is a short - term effect of pre - exporting due to tariff reduction, demand is expected to weaken marginally in the medium term. A short position can be considered [12]. - **Tin**: Supply is constrained, and smelting capacity utilization is low. Demand is weak, and it is expected to enter the off - season. In the short term, tin prices will fluctuate, with support from tight supply and pressure from weak demand [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Good export data of US soybeans have supported the market, and the new - season sowing progress is fast. There is no strong driving force for price increases [14]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The开机 rate of oil mills is expected to remain above 60% this week. It is expected that the decline in the basis of soybean meal will be limited, but there is a risk of a decline in futures [15][16]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil is increasing, and the basis is weakening. The inventory of rapeseed oil is decreasing, but the market is in the off - season. The fundamentals of both are expected to be weak [16]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil inventory has shown a turning point, and the import profit is still negative. Malaysia has reduced the export tariff, while Indonesia has increased the special export tax [17]. - **Pigs**: After the May holiday, terminal demand is weak, and supply is stable. Spot prices are under pressure, and futures prices are expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in futures [18]. - **Corn**: Under the pressure of registered warehouse receipts, corn futures prices have declined, and the basis has slightly shrunk. Spot prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and futures prices are expected to remain stable in the range of 2300 - 2400 [18].

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

究 东 海 观 ——宏观数据观察 分析师： 事件要点： 察 宏 观 4月新增人民币贷款2800亿元，预期6946亿元，前值36400亿元。4月社会融资 规模增量为11591亿元，预期13971亿元，前值为58900亿元；4月末，社会融资规 模存量为424万亿元，同比增长8.7%，较上月上升0.3%。4月末，广义货币（M2） 同比增长8.0%，预期7.2%，前值7.0%，M2较上月上升0.8%，高于市场预期。 摘要： 2025年5月15日 [Table_Title] 4月信贷需求偏弱，但政府融资持续发力 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 4 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 东 海 研 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [table_main] [Table_Report] 4月社会融资规模增量为11591亿元，预期13971亿元，前值为58900亿元；人民币贷款增 加2800亿元，预期6946亿元，前值36400亿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The domestic market sentiment continues to warm up, and the risk appetite continues to rise. Overseas, the US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and the US dollar index rebounds from a low level. Domestically, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US has boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and the US does not seek a weaker dollar in tariff negotiations, leading to a rebound of the US dollar index from a low level. Domestically, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, indicating weakening domestic demand, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US has weakened the impact of US trade policy on the domestic economy and boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. The RMB exchange rate and domestic stock market continue to strengthen. For assets, the stock index rebounds with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond corrects with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, the black metals fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy and chemicals rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as insurance, port shipping, and securities, the domestic stock market continues to rise. Fundamentally, China's credit and financing data in April were lower than expected, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the tariff reduction policy between China and the US has boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to decline overnight. The main contract of COMEX gold futures fell below the $3200/ounce mark, and the main contract of Shanghai gold fell more than 2% to 748 yuan/gram. Weaker - than - expected US inflation data supported the US dollar. The release of the China - US Geneva Joint Statement eased trade tensions, and the global risk - aversion sentiment significantly cooled down. The US dollar stabilized and rebounded, and the continuous strength of the US stock market suppressed the rise of gold. Gold is under short - term pressure, but the weakening of the US dollar's credit margin provides structural support for the gold price, and the value of gold allocation remains. For silver, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded significantly, and the market trading volume was at a low level. The substantial progress in the Sino - US tariff issue and the lower - than - expected US CPI data in April increased market risk appetite. Fundamentally, the construction steel inventory of Steel Valley Network continued to decline by 270,000 tons, and the apparent consumption increased slightly. It is currently the off - season for steel demand, and the demand decline trend may continue. In terms of supply, steel mills' profits are considerable, and the daily output of hot metal is at a high level this year, but the output of finished products has decreased recently. In the off - season, the subsequent demand may not be sufficient to support the current high output. It is advisable to view the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation idea [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded significantly. Steel mills' profits are considerable, and the hot - metal output is at a high level in the short term, but it is likely to decline in the future, and there are significant differences in the market regarding the decline path. In terms of supply, the iron - ore shipment volume decreased by 215,000 tons month - on - month, and the arrival volume decreased by 951,000 tons month - on - month. Considering that the second quarter is the traditional peak season for iron - ore shipments, the shipment and arrival volumes will increase later. The port inventory increased by 1.41 million tons on Monday compared with last Friday. The iron - ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot price of silicon iron remained flat, and the spot price of silicon manganese rebounded slightly. The output of construction steel and hot - rolled coils of Steel Valley Network continued to decline, and the demand for ferroalloys remained weak. The supply of silicon iron also continued to decline. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to oscillate within an interval [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data shows that the US crude - oil inventory increased by 3.45 million barrels last week, the largest increase since March. Tensions over the Iranian nuclear issue may increase oil - price volatility. The oil price may be in a correction phase recently, and the 50 - day moving average will form resistance at around $63.9 [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price remains stable at a high level following the oil price, and the overall supply is at a low level. The downstream demand has been boosted to some extent recently, and the inventory transfer from factories to society is smooth, with signs of inventory reduction in social warehouses. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following the crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: After the increase of the crude - oil center, the PX outer - market price remains at around $840. With more PX maintenance and the increase of PTA price, PX rises in resonance with the polyester chain. The PX supply will be tighter later, and it will remain strongly oscillating in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The basis first rose and then fell. The downstream leading manufacturers' statement of joint production cuts may hit the PTA demand. The PTA price has risen too fast recently, and the downstream production and sales have diverged. It is likely to have a phased correction, and then wait for the stabilization of the crude - oil price and the improvement of the terminal situation [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol has risen significantly due to the early maintenance of large plants, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. It may start the de - stocking channel, but it may have a phased correction in the short term due to downstream production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The polyester price remains oscillating at a high level following the crude - oil price, and the short - fiber price has rebounded significantly. The short - fiber will continue to be strong in the short term [10]. - **Methanol**: The methanol in Jiangsu Taicang continues to be strong. The overall basis weakens, and the supply pressure is prominent. The price may be repaired in the short term but has downward space in the medium and long term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market price oscillates upward. The production has reached a historical high, the downstream demand is weak, and the fundamental situation has weakened marginally. The LP spread is expected to strengthen in the short term [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE market price rises. The overall maintenance of PE devices is expected to exceed expectations, and the inventory has decreased. The PE price is expected to be repaired in the short term [12]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price has been raised. The domestic supply is high, and the export policy has boosted the price. It is oscillating strongly in the short term, but the upward driving force of the market is insufficient without more favorable policies [13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: In April, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. The copper - ore processing fee has declined recently, and the decline rate has slowed down. It is about to enter the off - season for demand, and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs will boost the demand. The copper price oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [14][15]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose significantly today, driven by the overall commodity - rising atmosphere. After the emotional digestion, it is advisable to try short - selling [15]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season, with weak marginal demand. The tin price oscillates in the short term, and the news of the resumption of production in Wa State and the risk of weakening demand pressure the price [15].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 晨 会 观 点 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 精 萃 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with each side canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs, alleviating concerns about a US economic recession and boosting global risk appetite. Domestically, China's exports in April far exceeded expectations, and the joint statement led to a short - term boost in domestic risk appetite, with the RMB exchange rate and domestic stock markets strengthening. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks may rebound in the short - term; bonds may experience short - term shock and correction; commodities in different sectors have different short - term trends such as shock, shock and rebound, or high - level shock. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US Geneva talks eased concerns about a US recession, and the US dollar index rebounded. Domestically, China's April exports were strong, and the joint statement boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks may rebound in the short - term, bonds may correct, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like military, humanoid robots, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market rose. With strong exports and the joint statement, short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold futures prices dropped. Trade tensions eased, the US dollar rose, and geopolitical risks decreased. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is recommended for short - term observation. [4][5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded on Monday. The Geneva talks boosted risk appetite. Currently at the peak - to - off - season transition, demand is weak, and supply may peak and decline. Short - term rebound is possible. [6] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rebounded. Steel mill profits are good, but steel demand is weakening. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term rebound is possible, but the medium - term trend is downward. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded slightly. Iron alloy demand is weakening. Supply is also decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The trade truce relieved the commodity market, and oil prices rebounded. Although still bearish overall, the extremely bearish stance has softened. [9] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed oil prices up. Supply is low, demand is being boosted, and inventory transfer and depletion are occurring. It will follow oil prices and fluctuate at a high level. [9] - **PX**: The trade truce benefited the weaving end. PX has many overhauls, and it will remain strong in the short - term. [9] - **PTA**: Tariff cancellation and upstream overhauls led to a rise in the basis. Supply is decreasing and demand is increasing, but there are some factors that may affect future trends. It may be strong in the short - term. [10][11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester chain benefited from tariff cancellation. Supply is high, but downstream demand is strong, and it will remain strong. [11] - **Short - Fiber**: The yarn mill's operation is stable, and short - fiber prices have rebounded. It will remain strong in the short - term. [11] - **Methanol**: The price in Jiangsu Taicang is strong. Supply pressure is prominent, but there is short - term price repair and medium - term downward pressure. [12] - **PP**: The domestic PP market had a weak morning and a rising afternoon. Production is high, demand is weak, and the LP spread may strengthen in the short - term. [13][14] - **LLDPE**: The PE market adjusted. With increased device overhauls, decreased inventory, and rising oil prices, the price is expected to repair in the short - term. [14] - **Urea**: The domestic urea price increased. Supply is high, but there are short - term positive factors. Future trends depend on export policies. [15] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks boosted market sentiment. Supply - side processing fees are falling, and demand may be boosted by tariff cuts. Short - term price is volatile, and mid - term short - selling opportunities may be sought. [16] - **Aluminum**: The tariff situation is complex, and it is recommended to close long positions on rebounds and look for short - selling opportunities later. [16] - **Tin**: Supply may increase as mines are expected to resume production. Demand is entering the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile with risks from production resumption and weakening demand. [17]