Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term cautious long [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - **Energy Chemicals**: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - **Agricultural Products**: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Perspective**: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Allocation**: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro** - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. **Equity Index** - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. **Precious Metals** - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. **Energy Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - **Asphalt**: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - **PP**: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. **Agricultural Products** - **US Soybeans**: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - **Corn**: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月8日 贾利军 从业资格证号： F0256916 投资咨询证号: Z0000671 电话: 021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号: F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话: 021-80128600-8631 刘慧峰 从业资格证号: F3033924 投资咨询证号: Z0013026 电话: 021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号: F03091165 投资咨询证号: Z0019876 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号: F03089928 投资咨询证号: Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号: Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 宏观金融: 央行超预期降准和降息，美联储维持利率不变 【宏观】 海外方面，美联储按兵不动维持利率不变，以及 ...

究 东 海 观 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 2025年5月7日 [Table_央Tit行le]下调存款准备金率0.5%和降息10BP ——宏观数据观察 分析师： 事件要点： 察 宏 观 中国人民银行行长潘功胜5月7日在国新办发布会上宣布，第一，降低存款准备 金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。第二，完善存款准备 金制度，阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率，从目前的5%调降 至0%。第三，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前 的1.5%调降至1.4%，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分 点。第四，下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，包括：各类专项结构性工 具利率、支农支小再贷款利率，均从目前的1.75%降至1.5%；抵押补充贷款（PSL） 利率从目前的2.25%降至2%。 事件解读： 此次降准和降息在幅度上符合预期但在时间上略超预期，货币政策持续宽松。 [Table_Report] 中 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月7日 研究所晨会观点精萃 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 宏观金融：中美将就贸易问题进行接触，提振国内风险偏好 萃 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 【宏观】 海外方面，因美国 3 月贸易逆差扩大至创纪录的 1405 亿美元，且美国 总统和财长贝森特的讲话几乎未提供达成任何贸易协议的明确时间表，美元短期 走弱，全球风险偏好有所降温。国内方面，商务部表示在充分考虑全球期待、中 方利益、美国业界和消费者呼吁的基础上，中方决定同意与美方进行接触，中美 高官将在瑞士会晤，中美贸易谈判接触信号短期有利提振国内风险偏好和人民币 汇 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号： Z0018827 电话：021-880128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 2025年5月6日 美国经济放缓vs关税缓和 [Table_Title] ，全球风险偏好整体升温 ——宏观策略周报 [table_main] 投资要点： 观 金 融 周 报 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 14 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 东 海 研 究 宏 5、美国财长贝森特表示，美国 2 年期国债收益率低于 10 年期国债收益率，这一信号表明美联储 应该降息；美国家庭消费强劲；GDP 下降可能是由于进口商品的库存积压所致；预计 GDP 数据将 被修正；政策将降低通胀。正与美国的前 17 大贸易伙伴合作推进协议磋商，将逐日逐周减少关税 不确定性；战略上的不确定性是美国总统的谈判策略。 6、美国 4 月份就业增长强劲，失业率保持稳定，这表明特朗普贸易政策的不确定性尚未对招聘计 划产生重大影响。美国劳工统计局数据显示，在前两个月的数据被下修后，4 月非农就业人数 ...

Report Date - The report is dated May 6, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Global risk appetite has increased due to strong US non - farm employment data, while the Fed's rate - cut expectation has been postponed from June to July. China has released signals of evaluation and relaxation regarding Sino - US economic and trade consultations, which is beneficial for boosting domestic risk appetite and the RMB exchange rate in the short term [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks may rebound in the short term; bonds may fluctuate at a high level; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2] Summary by Category Macro - finance - **Overseas**: US Q1 GDP was - 0.3% quarter - on - quarter, far below expectations. However, non - farm employment was strong, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 in March to 51.6 in April. The Fed's rate - cut expectation was postponed from June to July, and the US dollar and Treasury yields rebounded [2] - **Domestic**: During the May Day holiday, the Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US economic and trade consultations. The US has actively sent signals to China, and China is evaluating. This is beneficial for boosting domestic risk appetite and the RMB exchange rate in the short term [2] - **Asset Allocation**: Stocks may rebound in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious long positions are recommended; for commodities, black metals may be weak in the short term, non - ferrous metals may rebound, energy and chemicals may fluctuate, and precious metals may be at a high - level oscillation [2] Stock Index - Domestic stocks declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, banking, and power sectors. The signal of Sino - US economic and trade relaxation is beneficial for boosting domestic risk appetite and the RMB exchange rate in the short term. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market had a high - level correction this week, with London gold falling 2.4% to $3240 per ounce. The relaxation of trade tensions and the rise of the US dollar and real Treasury yields suppressed precious metals. Gold still has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using ratio spread structures if it corrects to the next integer level [3][4] Black Metals - **Steel**: Before the holiday, steel prices and trading volumes declined. During the holiday, trade tensions showed signs of relaxation, and the macro - environment was favorable. The inventory and consumption data in late April were good, but the demand is at the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons, and supply is at a high level. The steel market may continue to fluctuate in the short term [5] - **Iron Ore**: Before the holiday, iron ore prices declined, but the Singapore iron ore swap rebounded during the holiday. Iron ore supply is expected to increase in the future, and demand may not be able to support high - level iron production. Short - term range - bound trading is recommended, and short positions can be considered at high levels in the medium term [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Before the holiday, prices declined slightly. Demand is okay, but supply is decreasing. Short - term range - bound trading is recommended [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC has increased production more than expected, and the long - term downward trend is more certain. However, short - term supply may be reduced due to the poor progress of the Iran nuclear talks [8] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, asphalt, PX, PTA, etc., most of them are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US economic data is mixed, and the manufacturing PMI has declined. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, but domestic smelting production is high. Demand is about to enter the off - peak season. Short - term range - bound and weak trading is expected [13] - **Aluminum**: Domestic production is high, and demand is strong. Overseas consumption in Europe is still weak. It is recommended to close long positions in batches as the price rebounds [14] - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Myanmar is progressing, and imports are expected to remain high in May. Demand is about to enter the off - peak season. Short - term price fluctuations are expected [15] Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US wheat weather premiums have increased, and domestic downstream feed enterprises are expected to replenish stocks after the holiday. Bean meal prices may rebound, while rapeseed meal is expected to be pessimistic and generally follow the soybean meal market [16] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: International prices support oils, but domestic oils face weak fundamentals. After the holiday, oil prices may decline, and the soybean - palm oil price spread will continue to widen [16] - **Palm Oil**: BMD crude palm oil has fallen for five consecutive days. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, and production may increase significantly in the second half of the year [17] - **Pigs**: The price was stable during the May Day holiday. Supply is stable in May, and short - term selling pressure is not expected to be high [18][19] - **Corn**: Wheat prices will dominate the grain market after the holiday. Corn inventory at ports is high, and there is a risk of futures - spot price convergence [19]

就业市场韧性犹存，美元反弹压制黄金上行 东海贵金属周度策略 东海期货研究所宏观策略组 2025-05-06 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 | 宏观金融 | 美国4月ISM制造业PMI录得48.7%，高于预期48.0%但低于前值49.0%。主要分 项显现"滞胀"特征。新出口订单暴跌6.5个百分点至43.1%，创2020年5月以来最 | | --- | --- | | | 低，叠加产出分项从48.3骤降至44，显示贸易壁垒正在影响企业家信心。 | | 供需情况 | 全球白银市场连续第五年短缺，2025年预计缺口1.49亿盎司。主要因矿山增产有 限且回收量仅占供应20%。随着新能源、光伏、电子等领域的发展，白银需求将 持续增长，而供应相对有限，支撑白银价格长期上行。 | | | 白银因工业属性受制于贸易摩擦对制造业的压制前期涨势明显落后于黄金，但 | | 操作建议 | 近期呈现出一定的抗压性，金银比价价值中枢持续上行，当前银价处于箱体区 间上沿，可采取领口结构对冲回调风险，若充分回调可分批次入场布局长线多 | | | 单。 | | 风险因素 | 美联储政策路径转向，关税政策大幅变化，地缘 ...

宏观风险压制，短期震荡 东海期货沪锡周度分析 有色及新能源策略组 2025-5-6 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 彭亚勇 分析师： 从业资格证号：F03142221 投资咨询证号：Z0021750 电话：021-80128600-8628 邮箱：pengyy@qy.qh168.com.cn 观点总结 | | 五一假期期间，美国经济数据喜忧参半，整体显示美国经济处于放缓过程中，制造业PMI边际下滑至48.7， 为2024年11月来新低，虽然非农超预期，但考虑到1、2月下修5.8万人，以及关税影响尚未体现，难言 | | --- | --- | | 宏观 | 乐观，首次申请失业人数和续请失业金人数均超预期；关税方面，特朗普表示不急于达成贸易协议，美 | | | 日谈判没有达成共识，近期美国可能下调对我国关税，短期有助于提振市场情绪。 | | | 4月23日缅甸佤邦召开复产前座谈会，会议宣布了佤邦中央经济计划委员会于 2025 年 3 月发布的文件， | | 供应 | 复产流程进一步明确，复产将继续推进，云南江西两地炼厂开工率依然处于低位，进口窗口小幅打开后再 关闭，预计5月进口量维持高位。 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint In the context of the trade war, although the time and manner of the implementation of production - restriction policies are uncertain, it is highly likely that such policies will be introduced, leading to a long - term expectation of decreased iron ore demand. Even if the policies are not implemented in the short term, steel mill profits will be squeezed first, followed by forced production cuts, which will also reduce iron ore demand. In terms of supply, the second quarter is expected to see an increase in iron ore supply, and port inventories are likely to bottom out and rise. Therefore, iron ore prices will face significant downward pressure in the later period [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Overview In early April, iron ore prices dropped significantly due to systemic risks. After mid - April, prices returned to the fundamental logic of high hot metal production, and decreasing supply and inventory, outperforming steel prices. In late April, prices weakened again due to rumors of crude steel production cuts. It is expected that in the next 1 - 2 months, iron ore prices may experience a catch - up decline, with spot prices possibly falling to $85 - 90 per ton [7]. Iron Water High Production May Not Be Sustainable In April, the daily hot metal production reached a high of 2.4453 million tons. Given the weak domestic steel demand and external trade conflicts, it is highly likely that production - restriction policies will be introduced, though the time and manner of implementation are uncertain. In May, steel demand is likely to weaken. If production - restriction policies are not implemented within 1 - 2 months, steel supply will remain high, squeezing steel mill profits and forcing production cuts. In any case, daily hot metal production is unlikely to stay above 2.4 million tons for long [7][8]. Second - Quarter Supply Has an Uptrend Expectation Affected by factors such as Australian cyclones and Brazilian railway transportation disruptions, the production and sales of iron ore in the first quarter were at a low level. The output of the four major mines in the first quarter was 246 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%, and sales were 249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Historically, the second quarter is the peak season for iron ore shipments. Based on the average of the past four years, the global iron ore shipments in the second quarter are expected to increase by about 56 million tons compared to the first quarter. The four major mines have not lowered their annual shipment targets, so there is an expectation of increased supply in the second quarter [10][11]. Iron Ore Inventory Inflection Point May Appear in May From late March to mid - April, the arrival volume of iron ore decreased, while hot metal production increased. Due to pre - holiday steel mill restocking, iron ore port inventories decreased for three consecutive weeks in April, with a cumulative decrease of 4.644 million tons. Currently, steel mill restocking has temporarily ended. Looking forward, supply is likely to continue to increase, and hot metal production is likely to decline. Therefore, after May, iron ore port inventories are likely to bottom out and rise. This is also supported by the ratio of iron ore port clearance volume to arrival volume [12]. Conclusion and Investment Advice The real - world fundamentals of iron ore were still strong in April. Looking ahead, the expectation of decreased iron ore demand will persist. Supply is expected to increase in the second quarter, and port inventories are likely to rise. Iron ore spot prices face pressure around $100 per ton and may fall to $85 - 90 per ton. Considering the discount factor, the iron ore 09 contract faces pressure around 720 - 730 [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - Terminal enterprises generally adopt a defensive strategy of low - inventory operation, and the probability of enterprises reducing production or stopping work during the May Day holiday is still high. The industry may face negative feedback in May, and the upward driving force of raw material varieties is not strong [1][6] - In the short term, PTA and short - fiber are likely to maintain a weak shock within a range. The finished product inventory is generally high, the raw material inventory is extremely low, and manufacturers' willingness to replenish inventory is very low [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Strategy Overview - The terminal is in the inventory accumulation stage. Some enterprises may increase the holiday time during the May Day holiday. The high - level operation of downstream enterprises may face negative feedback pressure [6] 3.2 Terminal Inventory Hoarding意愿不高, Negative Feedback May Still Have Room to Ferment - **Tariff Impact**: Export - oriented enterprises are actively responding to tariffs. Direct US orders are basically stagnant. Enterprises are looking for alternative markets such as South America, but the short - term effect is limited. Non - US orders, mainly from Southeast Asia, are relatively good. If tariffs do not change, enterprises may increase holidays and reduce production during the May Day holiday. Upstream chemical fiber factories may take further self - discipline measures [1][7][8] - **Start - up Situation**: Most enterprises are considering increasing holiday time during the May Day holiday depending on inventory. If inventory can be balanced, some enterprises may not take long holidays. Some enterprises are still hesitating due to existing orders. Some enterprises report that the accounts receivable period has become longer [1][9] - **Inventory and Replenishment**: Without significant changes in oil prices, PTA and short - fiber are unlikely to break through previous highs and may test resistance levels, maintaining a weak shock within a range. Finished product inventory is high, raw material inventory is extremely low, and manufacturers' willingness to replenish inventory is low. Some enterprises are hesitant to hoard goods due to low prices. Enterprises with sufficient funds may make small - scale purchases if sales improve or inventory pressure eases [1][9] 3.3 Enterprise Specific Situations and Demands - **Enterprise 1 (Fabric Export Factory)**: The enterprise has a 50 - 60% start - up rate. It is mainly export - oriented, with a low proportion of direct sales to the US. It is cautious about raw material inventory and focuses on sales. It exports mainly to Southeast Asian garment factories. It will not take holidays during the May Day holiday and will not hoard goods [11][12] - **Enterprise 2 (Curtain Export Manufacturer)**: The enterprise has a full start - up rate but a large inventory of about $15 million. It is actively looking for new processing locations and markets and plans to take more holidays during the May Day holiday. It is considering relocating to Southeast Asia or looking for contract manufacturers in Egypt [13][14] - **Enterprise 3 (Fabric Trader)**: The enterprise is facing a 245% top - level tariff on its export products. It can avoid taxes by under - reporting prices and is looking for contract manufacturers in Southeast Asia and Egypt. It has the idea of shifting to the domestic market but has not implemented it yet. It has low inventory and low inventory - building willingness [15] - **Enterprise 4 (Home Textile Exporter)**: The enterprise's US orders are basically stagnant, while Russian orders are good. It has learned that the start - up rate of local dyeing factories has decreased [16][19] - **Enterprise 5 (Warp - knitting Factory)**: The enterprise has a 60% start - up rate. It is cautious about stopping production due to output and tax payment requirements. It may take more holidays during the May Day holiday depending on inventory. It had inventory losses before and currently maintains a just - in - time inventory strategy. The finished product inventory is high, and the sales volume has decreased by half [20][21][24] - **Enterprise 6 (Circular Knitting Factory)**: The enterprise has a 90% start - up rate. It is less affected by tariffs, with 60% of its products for domestic sales. It has low inventory - building willingness and may consider replenishing inventory when prices are right. The downstream orders are few, and the profit is low [25][26] - **Enterprise 7 (Texturing Factory)**: One - third of the enterprise's texturing machines are shut down, and circular knitting machines are almost fully operational. It is hesitant to reduce production after the May Day holiday. It has high - cost raw material inventory and will adopt a strategy of short - term inventory replenishment [28][29] - **Enterprise 8 (Texturing Factory)**: The enterprise's texturing machines are fully operational after cleaning up inventory. It is uncertain whether to increase holidays after the May Day holiday. It has no intention to hoard inventory currently. The downstream orders are poor, and some customers will stop production during the May Day holiday [30]