市场悲观预期有所缓解，钢材市场延续区间震荡 东海黑色金属周度策略 东海期货研究所黑色策略组 2025-04-14 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68757089 邮箱：liuhf@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 武冰心 从业资格证号：F03118003 电话：021-68757089 邮箱：wubx@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黑色策略 | 品种 | 钢材 | 铁矿石 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 区间震荡 | 区间震荡 | | 逻辑 | 本周钢材现实需求继续好转，但增幅已经明显放 缓，且部分品种需求环比已经开始出现回落。钢 | 本周全球铁矿石发运及到港量均有所回落，但考虑到3月 续继续上涨空间有限。铁矿石港口库存仍在小幅去化之 反弹，但中期下行趋势不变。 | | | | 下旬以来，外矿发货量有两周小幅回升，下周到港量数 | | | | 据可能会有所改善。铁水产量仍处于高位，但鉴于钢材 | | | 材市场目前处于淡旺季切换的过程中，后期需求 | 需求淡旺季的切换，铁 ...

东 海 研 究 宏 观 金 融 周 报 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年4月14日 [Table_Title] 国内政策支持力度加大，股指短期反弹 ——股指期货周报 明道雨 股 指 期 货 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 分析师 投资要点： 行情走势：上周沪深 300 指数收于 3750.52 点，较前值下跌 2.87%；累计成交 21544 亿元，日均成交 4309 亿元，较前值增加 1868 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17971 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是农林牧渔(3.18%)、商贸零售 (1.19%)、国防军工(0.88%)、消费者服务(0.74%)、食品饮料(0.20%)；表现较 差的前五名行业分别是钢铁(-6.43%)、机械(-6.67%)、传媒(-6.88%)、通信 (-7.48%)、电力设备及新能源(-7.76%)。 期现基差行情：IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-18.32 点、-10.58 点、 -25.52 点、-27.1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "reciprocal tariff" policy of the United States continues to loosen, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The short - term stagflation risk of the US economy is increasing, with the US dollar index falling. In China, market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. - For asset investment, the stock index is expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions; the black metal sector is weakly oscillating with cautious observation; the non - ferrous metal sector is oscillating and rebounding with cautious long positions; the energy and chemical sector is oscillating with cautious observation; precious metals are rising with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 50.8, lower than expected, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a 40 - year high, increasing the short - term stagflation risk. The US has exempted some electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs", and the global risk appetite has increased [2]. - Domestic: The loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Supported by sectors such as semiconductors, non - metallic materials, and precious metals, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. With the loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic support measures, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold: Due to the US government's credit damage, the selling of US dollar assets, and geopolitical uncertainties, gold remains strong. A significant correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity [4]. - Silver: Affected by trade frictions, it fell 3.81% last week. It may follow gold and show a weakly oscillating and upward trend [4]. 3.4 Black Metal - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be weak last week, but the decline slowed down over the weekend. The apparent demand for some steel products decreased, and the supply of some varieties may still increase. Short - term observation is recommended [5][7]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices rebounded slightly. Iron water production may continue to increase, but there is a downward expectation in the medium - term. The short - term price will oscillate within a range [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The spot prices remained flat. The demand for ferroalloys is fair, but the supply is decreasing. Short - term price oscillation within a range is expected [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: After tariff fluctuations, the oil price rebounded slightly, but the market is still worried about demand decline. The Iran sanctions risk may lead to short - term price fluctuations, and long - term oversupply is expected [9]. - Asphalt: It oscillates weakly following the oil price. The inventory has decreased, but the actual demand is weak, and the price fluctuation will remain high [9]. - PX: The external price has dropped significantly. It will continue to be weak in the short - term, but there may be a slight rebound later [10][11]. - PTA: Terminal orders are affected by tariffs, and the short - term rebound space is limited, remaining in a weak state [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term demand is poor, and the de - stocking time is postponed. It will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Short - fiber: The price has been corrected significantly, and it will continue to oscillate weakly, but there is some support [11]. - Methanol: The inventory is decreasing, but the supply is expected to increase. The 05 contract will oscillate and repair, and the 09 contract is bearish [12]. - PP: The downstream start - up has decreased slightly, but the supply reduction may relieve the pressure, and the price will oscillate and repair [12]. - LLDPE: The downstream demand has declined, and the 09 contract's center of gravity will move down [12]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metal - Copper: The US may not increase tariffs further. Looking for low points for a rebound is a more prudent strategy in the short - term [13]. - Aluminum: The inventory has decreased, and it can be considered for a rebound after a short - term correction [13]. - Tin: The macro situation is expected to improve market sentiment. The smelter start - up has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The tin price will rebound in the short - term [14]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The supply - demand expectation has tightened, and the price may rebound if there are weather risks during the spring sowing [15]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply has decreased, and the inventory has shrunk. The price will fluctuate at a high level, and the downward space is limited [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: It has entered the consumption season, and the inventory is high. The supply risk has decreased, and there is room for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal to rebound [15]. - Soybean Oil: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is supported by the risk premium of imported soybeans. The basis may weaken in the second quarter [16]. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is low, but the global production is increasing, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - Rapeseed Oil: The domestic inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. The cost support is stable but lacks driving force [17].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The US announced a 90 - day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on most economies after 13 hours of implementation, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, which significantly boosted global risk appetite. In China, measures such as increasing ETF and related stock holdings, and stock repurchases by listed companies, along with potential new incremental policies, supported the domestic market's risk appetite [3]. - For different asset classes, short - term strategies include cautious long - positions for stocks, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy - chemical products; cautious short - term holding for black metals; and cautious short - term observation for black metals [3]. Summary by Relevant Categories Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Supported by sectors like military, port shipping, and software development, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. Despite short - term market volatility due to Sino - US tariff disputes, domestic measures and potential policies provided support. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term, they are expected to oscillate and rebound, with cautious long - positions advised [3]. - **Commodity Sector**: Black metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with cautious observation recommended; non - ferrous metals, energy - chemical products, and precious metals are expected to rebound, with cautious long - positions advised [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, the precious metals market significantly recovered. COMEX gold rose over 3% to around 3100, and Shanghai gold rebounded to around 740. Although the global trade tension has eased, gold still has allocation value as a hedge against instability. In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the US dollar credit crisis provide upward momentum for gold [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to decline, but trading volume increased. While real - world demand is marginally improving, there are concerns about demand peaking. Supply is expected to increase further. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to weaken. Although iron - water production is expected to rise, there are concerns about demand decline in the future. Supply is expected to decrease. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese continued to decline. While short - term demand is still acceptable, supply is decreasing. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Trump announced a suspension of high - tariff policies on some trading partners, but the impact of China's tariff increase remains. Oil prices are expected to be highly volatile in the near term [9]. - **Asphalt**: Driven by crude oil prices, the spot price has weakened. Although the inventory situation has slightly improved, actual demand is still weak. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [9]. - **PX**: PX prices are oscillating at a low level. In addition to monitoring crude oil prices, attention should be paid to overseas oil - blending demand. Prices are expected to remain low this week [10]. - **PTA**: US terminal orders are stagnant, and downstream production and sales are extremely sluggish. PTA is expected to slightly rebound with the rise of crude oil prices [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Shipping volume is at a very low level, and inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [11]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by oil prices, short - fiber prices have significantly declined. Although there is some price support, it is expected to remain weakly trending in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market in Taicang is weakly declining. Near - month contracts are supported by inventory decline, while far - month contracts are weaker. In the short term, there may be concentrated selling due to risk aversion, but there is still some support from inventory reduction in the medium - term [12]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market continued to decline. With new upstream device launches and weak downstream demand, prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - **LLDPE**: The PE market price continued to fall. Supply is relatively loose, and demand growth has slowed. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After the US announced a 90 - day tariff suspension on non - retaliatory countries, LME copper rebounded significantly. However, due to Trump's inconsistent policies and trade - war pressures, the rebound height is limited [14]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have fallen sharply and are in an oversold state. The impact of tariffs has weakened. The fundamentals are stable, but the market is mainly driven by macro factors. A rebound is approaching [14]. - **Tin**: After a sharp decline, tin prices rebounded due to the US tariff suspension. However, considering the potential supply increase and macro risks, the rebound height is limited [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybeans continued to rise slightly overnight. The market's focus is shifting to the April USDA report and spring - sowing conditions. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant [16]. - **Soybean Meal**: With the arrival of South American soybeans, domestic soybean supply is stable. The spot basis is expected to weaken, while futures are affected by import - cost increases and supply - chain concerns. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean export prices and US new - season sowing [16]. - **Oils and Fats**: International energy and oil prices rebounded, and domestic oil prices were stable overnight. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report, as analysts expect palm oil inventory in Malaysia to increase by 3% to 1.56 million tons at the end of March [17][18]. - **Corn**: The upper limit of the current price range is pressured by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premiums, and policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the spot selling pressure at the end of the month [18]. - **Hogs**: The spot market is in a range - bound situation. There is still significant pressure on hog slaughter in April - May. With an expected increase in planned slaughter in April, rising feed costs, and completed reserve - inventory rotation, the upward drive for hog prices in April is weak [18].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-801 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of US tariff policies has led to significant fluctuations in the global market, with a sharp decline in domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes are affected to varying degrees, and short - term caution and observation are recommended for most assets [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the implementation of US tariff policies has far exceeded market expectations, causing global market turmoil. Domestically, the US's additional 34% "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods and China's strong counter - measures may intensify short - term market fluctuations. However, the increase in holdings of ETFs and related stocks by Huijin, China Guoxin, and China Chengtong provides some support for domestic market risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to have a short - term correction, and short - term cautious observation is recommended. Treasury bonds may have a short - term shock rebound, and cautious long - positions are advised. In the commodity sector, the black metal sector is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, non - ferrous metals may have a short - term correction, the energy and chemical sector may decline in the short term, and precious metals may have a short - term high - level correction, all requiring cautious observation [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as airport shipping, liquor, and banking, the domestic stock market continued to decline. The US tariff policies may intensify short - term market fluctuations, but the increase in holdings by relevant institutions provides some support. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - On Monday, the precious metals market opened significantly lower. The decline in gold prices is mainly due to the liquidity crisis triggered by the plunge in large - scale assets and the strengthening of the US dollar index. The current market's pricing of "recession panic" and "liquidity crisis" may push the price of New York gold back to the $3000 mark, and if it breaks through, it may test the $2800 support. In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the US dollar credit crisis still provide upward momentum for gold [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - On Monday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets tumbled, but the decline in the black metal sector was relatively small compared to other varieties. The current steel demand is in the peak season and continues to recover. Supply is expected to further increase, with the hot metal output expected to rise to 240 - 245 tons. After the sharp decline on Monday, it is recommended to observe the steel market and pay attention to subsequent hedging policies [5]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore corrected significantly, mainly affected by the reciprocal tariff policies during the Tomb - sweeping Festival. The hot metal output continues to rise, and the fundamentals are still relatively healthy in the short term. It is recommended to observe and wait for the end of risk release [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese corrected significantly. The demand for ferroalloys has increased, but the supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the supply of silicon iron remains low. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - US tariff policies threaten global energy demand, and OPEC+ production increases lead to a rapid rise in the risk of supply surplus. The current tariff situation has exceeded expectations, and the market is pricing in the risk of a US and global economic recession [8]. Asphalt - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a significant weakening of asphalt prices. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but the actual demand is still weak, and the subsequent inventory reduction drive is limited. The short - term price will continue to follow crude oil, and price fluctuations will remain high [8]. PX - PX prices have significantly retreated following crude oil. With low PTA开工 and many domestic PX device overhauls, prices are under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the rebound of crude oil prices and the increase in overseas oil - blending demand. PX prices will remain low this week [9]. PTA - There are still many short - term PTA overhauls, which are not enough to offset the cost collapse. After April, PX demand will gradually recover, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. However, before the crude oil cost risk is fully realized, the PX price rebound will be limited. The downstream PTA and ethylene glycol prices will also decline [9][10]. Ethylene Glycol - The shipment of ethylene glycol is still average, and the inventory reduction is limited. The price is supported by short - term supply reduction, but the coal - based production may resume if the price rebounds. The price is likely to touch the previous low, and the rebound will be limited by weak downstream demand [10]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber has significantly corrected following crude oil. Although some short - fiber enterprises have announced industry self - discipline and the shipment has accelerated, the energy and chemical sector is still in a downward trend, and short - fiber is expected to remain weak [10]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Taicang has declined. Upstream overhauls have led to a slight decrease in production, and imports are expected to increase in mid - April. The downstream MTO/MTP开工 is acceptable, and there are overhaul plans in the second quarter. The short - term inventory decline supports the near - month contract, while the far - month contract is weak [11]. PP - The domestic PP market has partially declined. Upstream new device production and the approaching overhaul season, combined with weak downstream demand, limit price fluctuations. Crude oil price decline squeezes profits, and low inventory provides some support. The decline in propane imports in counter - sanctions may lead to a contraction in PP supply [12]. LLDPE - The PE market price has partially declined. The overall supply is relatively loose, downstream demand growth has slowed down, and inventory accumulation is expected. With the sharp decline in crude oil, prices are expected to be under pressure [13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs will put great pressure on the global economy, and copper prices are just at the beginning of a decline. After a sharp short - term decline, there may be a rebound, but the mid - term strategy is to sell on rallies [14]. Aluminum - During the holiday, copper prices fell sharply, while aluminum was relatively stable. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has slightly increased. The fundamentals of aluminum are average, and the current market is mainly macro - priced. Existing short positions can be fully closed [15]. Tin - The tin price has risen due to supply disruptions but has fallen due to macro - risks during the holiday. The supply recovery is uncertain, and the demand is restricted by the US tariff policies. The social inventory of tin has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Myanmar's resumption of production and the Congo - Kinshasa negotiations [15]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean price closed higher, but the market's concern about US soybean exports has increased the risk of price decline. The export inspection volume of US soybeans last week was 804,270 tons. In South America, the soybean and corn harvest progress in Brazil's central - southern region is faster than last year [16]. Soybean Meal - After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, the price of soybean meal rose significantly. In the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans is stable and abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to first decline and then rise in the second quarter. The futures price is affected by the expected increase in import costs and concerns about the US soybean supply chain. It is necessary to pay attention to the export price of Brazilian soybeans and the US new - season sowing situation [17]. Oils - US tariff statements and the decline in US soybean oil prices have put pressure on palm oil prices. The price of domestic soybean oil is supported by expected cost increases, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has widened. The risk premium of rapeseed oil has declined. The supply chain of domestic oilseeds is generally stable, but the increase in import costs may provide some support. In April, the palm oil production in Southeast Asia will increase, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. Corn - The domestic corn market has responded relatively calmly. China's dependence on US corn has decreased in recent years, and the domestic corn production has been abundant. With the reduction in imported grain supply and limited available residue in domestic corn - producing areas, the corn price is likely to rise [18][19]. Live Pigs - The price of large pigs has continued to decline, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is partially inverted. The supply is expected to be sufficient in the future, while the demand increase is limited. The short - term feed cost may rise, and the market is more likely to support prices, but the re - stocking of second - fattening pigs may be cautious [19].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 会 观 点 精 萃 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱： ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh16 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global market is experiencing increased volatility due to the impending implementation of US tariffs. Gold is expected to be supported in the long - term, while silver lags due to its industrial attributes. The steel and iron ore markets are likely to oscillate in the short - term, and the energy and chemical sectors face uncertainties from tariff policies. The non - ferrous metals are under pressure, and the agricultural products market is influenced by US biofuel policies and supply - demand relationships [2][3][6][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Gold prices are being driven higher by tariff concerns and safe - haven buying. The latest economic data shows a weakening in the manufacturing and labor markets in the US. The Fed's stance and the long - term trends of stagflation and de - dollarization support gold prices. Silver lags due to its industrial attributes. A long - term bullish view on gold is maintained, and mid - to long - term positions can be gradually established on significant pullbacks [2] Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly on Tuesday, with a significant increase in trading volume. The news of export order rectification intensifies market pessimism. Real - world demand remains weak in the short - term, and the market will assess demand in April. Supply is expected to increase further in April, and the market may oscillate in the short - term [3] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded significantly on Tuesday. Pig iron production continues to rise, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, following the trend of steel prices [3] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is fair. The supply of silicon manganese is decreasing due to losses, and the supply of silicon iron remains low. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [4][5] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US tariff plan and geopolitical tensions have increased concerns about the economy. Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short - term [6] Asphalt - The main asphalt price rebounded slightly with oil prices, but the spot price increase was limited. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate and may follow oil price increases to a limited extent [6] PX - Many Asian PX plants have maintenance plans from April to June. PTA demand is expected to recover after April, and PX prices may have a slight upward space [7] PTA - PTA inventory has been decreasing for four consecutive weeks. The overall start - up rate is slowly rising, and the price may have a slight upward trend in April [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although the port inventory of ethylene glycol is high, it is likely to enter the destocking phase in April. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term [7] Short - fiber - Short - fiber companies have announced industry self - discipline. The price is expected to return to an oscillating pattern [8] Methanol - The port supply - demand situation is okay, and the inventory is decreasing. The price of the near - month contract is strong, while the 09 contract is bearish [9] PP - The downstream of PP is weak, but upstream maintenance is starting, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover [9] LLDPE - The PE downstream is in the peak season, but the demand is limited. The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to oscillate [9] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The domestic Caixin manufacturing PMI has risen. As the "reciprocal tariff" date approaches, the market is worried about the economy. The price of copper may face short - term downward pressure [10] Aluminum - Aluminum ingots and bars are de - stocking, but the market is mainly affected by macro factors and copper price declines, and the short - term outlook is bearish [10] Tin - The cancellation of the mine resumption meeting has led to a sharp increase in tin prices. The supply of tin ore is tight in the medium - to short - term, and the price is expected to be relatively strong [11] Agricultural Products Soybeans - The CBOT soybean oil price has changed, and the US soybean market has risen. The Brazilian soybean production forecast has been lowered [12][13] Soybean Meal - The oil mill's operation rate is at a historical low, and the supply of soybean meal is shrinking. The demand may increase, and the price is expected to oscillate [13] Rapeseed Meal - The domestic aquaculture demand is entering the peak season, but the high inventory is being depleted slowly. The price may rise in the medium - term [13] Soybean Oil - The supply of imported soybeans is expected to improve, and the price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [13] Palm Oil - The international palm oil market is bullish, but the upward space may be limited, and the price may oscillate [14] Rapeseed Oil - The price of rapeseed oil has been driven up by the cost, and the price is expected to remain high in the short - term [14] Hogs - The spot price of hogs is under pressure, and the futures price is also bearish in the short - term [15] Corn - Corn prices are weak due to the influence of wheat and new - season production expectations. The market is expected to remain weak [15]