润改善，后续复产力度有望增加。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，7月房地产数据依旧继续下滑，下游深加 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1241 139 | 24 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 8 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1102 1532487 | 16 27765 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1395908 | -2793 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -411546 | -18978 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -365065 | -34435 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3394 | -70 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 797 | 797 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -45 | -4 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -94 | -10 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -41 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - As of the week ending July 10, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,430 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.86% and a year-on-year increase of 72.28%. With the arrival of hot weather and the listing of seasonal fresh fruits, the demand for red dates is in the seasonal off - peak, and inventory digestion is slow. The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the producing areas. Currently, the growth of jujube trees is relatively good, and the expectation of production reduction has weakened. The price of the main red date futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Continuously monitor the situation of the second - crop flowers and fruits [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main red date futures contract was 10,390 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 134,679 lots, a decrease of 5,134 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 16,805 lots, an increase of 262 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 9,007, and the total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts was 1,594 [2] Spot Market - The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 6 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan was 4.35 yuan/jin. The prices of special - grade red dates in Hebei, Henan, and Guangdong were 9.73 yuan/kg, 9.8 yuan/kg, and 11 yuan/kg respectively. The price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong was 9.8 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons, and the planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national red date inventory was 10,430 tons, a decrease of 90 tons. The monthly export volume was 2,229,227 kg, a decrease of 132,571 kg, and the cumulative export volume was 15,350,567 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi was 8 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of好想你 was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production growth rate was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the growth period of jujube trees in the main grey - jujube producing areas in Xinjiang, jujube farmers are actively engaged in field management such as watering and fertilizing. Most jujube farmers keep new branches during the bud - pruning process. The jujube trees are entering the physiological fruit - dropping stage, and there is no concentrated fruit - dropping phenomenon. The temperature has dropped compared with the forecast, and the increased rainfall is suitable for fruit - setting. The fruit - setting of the first - crop flowers in some jujube orchards was average in the early stage [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Internationally, the high excellent rate of US corn in the early growth stage keeps the output outlook high, continuously pressuring international corn prices. Domestically, with the continuous auction of imported corn, the transaction rate and premium have decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. The high - temperature weather in summer is unfavorable for grain storage, increasing traders' shipping enthusiasm and slightly increasing market grain sources. Wheat has an obvious feed substitution advantage, reducing corn feed demand. Corn futures prices have recently fallen from high - level oscillations, showing overall weakness [2]. - **Corn Starch**: Affected by continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years, significantly reducing supply pressure. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and downstream demand has entered the traditional off - season, with slightly slower downstream pick - up. Supply and demand remain loose. Recently, starch has also shown overall weak oscillations due to the decline in corn prices [2][3]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2302 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2647 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. - Corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 64 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (9 - 11) is 38 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. - Corn futures holding volume (active contract) is 1017804 hands, down 13096 hands; corn starch futures holding volume (active contract) is 255773 hands, up 7909 hands. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 13789 hands, up 17113 hands; for corn starch are - 13753 hands, down 4247 hands. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 194126 hands, down 2353 hands; for corn starch are 18899 hands, down 3080 hands. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 345 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 412.25 cents/bushel, down 4.25 cents. - CBOT corn total holding is 1498964 contracts, up 297 contracts. - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 141762 contracts, up 13764 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2417.45 yuan/ton, down 4.12 yuan. - The factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2860 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The average import cost of imported corn is 1884.32 yuan/ton, down 1.15 yuan. - The international freight for imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the main corn contract is 115.45 yuan/ton, down 0.12 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 53 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons. - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 88.6 tons, down 15.5 tons; deep - processing corn inventory is 443.6 tons, up 8.2 tons. - The monthly import volume of corn is 353.19 tons, down 17 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, up 4.06 tons. - The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons. - The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.7 tons, up 2.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The average feed corn inventory days of samples is 31.58 days, down 0.38 days. - Deep - processing corn consumption is 115.78 tons, down 1.85 tons. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42.96%, down 1.92%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.14%, down 1.06%. - The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 105 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; in Hebei is - 8 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; in Jilin is - 73 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.58%, down 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.02%, down 0.01%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.02%, down 0.3%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.02%, down 0.3% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - US President Trump announced on the 9th that starting from August 1st, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all goods imported from Brazil, which will have a major impact on the agricultural product trade between the two countries. - Brazilian agricultural meteorological agency Rural Clima said that due to the prediction of a possible La Nina phenomenon by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on July 10th, Brazil's new crop sowing season may be affected by La Nina, but the climate may return to a neutral state after spring. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market - expected 73%, 73% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2508 closed up 0.53%, and the far - month contracts closed up 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 2421.94, up 163.9 points from last week, a 7.3% week - on - week increase. The continuously rising spot indicators suggest that the previous price increase announcements by leading shipping companies are likely to succeed, reducing the market's concerns about peak - season freight rates and driving up the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line). The US economic data indicates potential challenges in future economic activities. The eurozone economy shows signs of bottoming out, but the manufacturing industry is still under pressure. Amid trade - war uncertainties and weak demand expectations for the container shipping index (European line), the futures prices fluctuate greatly. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive up the futures prices in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1] Summary According to Relevant Information Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price (EC2508): 2027.200, up 55.40; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1440.7 - EC2508 - EC2510 spread: 586.50, down 62.10; EC2508 - EC2512 spread: 446.70, down 43.00 - EC contract basis: 394.74, up 167.30 - EC main contract open interest: 27891, down 1009 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 2421.94, up 163.90; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1266.59, down 291.18 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1733.29, down 30.20; Container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1313.70, down 29.29; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1726.41, up 32.11 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1663.00, down 198.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1860.00, down 137.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 13829.00, up 968.00; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 15814.00, up 2834.00 [1] Industry News - US President Trump announced that he will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian products starting from August 1st and will make a "major statement" on Russia on July 14th (local time). His threat to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods is regarded as a negotiation strategy by EU officials. The EU is committed to resolving the issue through negotiation with the US. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council requires accelerating the research and development of key core technologies, promoting the construction of innovation platforms, strengthening the supply of common technologies, and enhancing basic research to achieve high - level scientific and technological self - reliance. It also emphasizes guiding state - owned capital to focus on forward - looking and strategic emerging industries and developing strategic emerging and future industries [1] Upcoming Data Releases - July 15, 10:00: China's Q2 GDP annual rate, China's June social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year, China's June industrial added value of above - scale industries year - on - year, China's June year - to - date urban fixed - asset investment year - on - year - July 15, 17:00: Eurozone's May industrial production monthly rate - July 15, 20:30: US June unadjusted CPI annual rate, US June seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction is the low profit and limited downstream demand. In the short - term, the spot price may remain firm due to the increased non - aluminum procurement enthusiasm, and for the futures, attention should be paid to the pressure around 2600 for SH2509 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2532 yuan/ton, the futures trading volume is 874144 hands with an increase of 283841 hands, and the futures open interest is 237978 hands with a decrease of 14539 hands. The closing prices of the January and May contracts are 2509 yuan/ton and 2564 yuan/ton respectively, and the latter increased by 28 yuan/ton. The net position of the top 20 futures decreased from - 8629 hands to - 2114 hands [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are 840 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region is 2625 yuan/ton, and the basis is 93 yuan/ton with an increase of 26 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest regions are 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of steam coal is 636 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream prices of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are - 550 yuan/ton and - 175 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13020 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3140 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous week. As of July 10th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.64% compared with the same period last year [1] 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, new plants in Central and East China were under maintenance last week, while the load of some plants in South and North China increased, and the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.1% to 80.4%. On the demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28%, with an average profit of 300.3 yuan/ton; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 2.63% to 77.80%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.29% to 59.9% [1] 3.8 Inventory Situation - Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 374,300 tons, with little inventory pressure [1] 3.9 Outlook - The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased, but due to the concentrated maintenance of PVC downstream of liquid chlorine, the backlog of liquid chlorine has led to a deep price inversion and dragged down the chlor - alkali profit, thus restricting the increase in the caustic soda operating rate. This week, there are many plant shutdowns and restarts, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises has decreased. The non - aluminum demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on rigid demand [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Fundamental factors show that the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad is rising, the processing fee of zinc ore is continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, resulting in a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been widely adjusted, and downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. Overseas, the LME zinc premium has risen, and inventory has continued to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, with a decline in positions, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,738 US dollars/ton, down 39 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 238,274 lots, down 13,815 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 15,052 lots, down 8,302 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 9,171 tons, up 298 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 49,981 tons (weekly), up 4,617 tons, and the LME inventory is 105,250 tons, down 350 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,180 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,850 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 70 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 0.36 US dollars/ton, down 5.04 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; according to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production (monthly) is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined zinc is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons, and the export volume of refined zinc is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social inventory of zinc is 72,500 tons (weekly), up 2,700 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons, and the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.95% (daily), up 0.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.95% (daily), up 0.39 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.27% (daily), up 1.64 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.14% (daily), down 0.06 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the latest tariff measures announced by US President Trump have muddled the inflation outlook again, making it more difficult for him to support the interest - rate cut policy strongly advocated by Trump. The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, and the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge. In the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to the domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operations [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall trend of cotton is expected to be slightly bullish with oscillations. The market is supported by the de - stocking of cotton and the high risk of heat damage in some Xinjiang regions, but is dragged by the off - season consumption in the downstream. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,875 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,120 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 17,706 lots, down 2,643 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are 105 lots, up 76 lots. - Cotton main contract position is 557,732 lots, up 2,175 lots; cotton yarn main contract position is 22,210 lots, down 395 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,807 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 98 sheets. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex: 3128B) is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 20,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff) is 13,597 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,353 yuan/ton. - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,095 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,887 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,225 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 913 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, down 0.6939 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. - The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, down 36,000 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.3577737 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1971179 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2631773 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.0052109 billion US dollars. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.25%, up 0.8%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.24%, up 0.79%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 4.97%, down 0.13%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.58%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's July supply - demand report shows that the estimated cotton output in the US for the 2025/26 season is 14.6 million bales, up from 14 million bales in June, and the ending inventory is 4.6 million bales, up from 4.3 million bales in June. The report has a slightly bearish impact. [2] 3.8 View Summary - The textile industry is in the off - season of consumption, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas is 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84%. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The raw - material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the increase in Indonesian nickel - iron production despite the higher supply cost caused by the PNBP policy. Steel mills are facing greater cost - inversion pressure and are increasing production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further. In the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure. Downstream industries are cautious and pessimistic. The domestic inventory de - stocking is poor, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking effect of subsequent production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected to have short - term volatile adjustments, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,715 yuan/ton, with a change of 5. The 08 - 09 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,072 lots, a decrease of 540. The main - contract position is 66,494 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,051 tons, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The SS main - contract basis is 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units. - The monthly output of medium - and large - sized tractors is 10,400 units, and the monthly output of small tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 行业消息 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that US President Trump's newly announced tariff measures have muddled the inflation outlook, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's advocated interest - rate cut policy. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge, and in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the policy implementation intensity and rhythm according to domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term urea operating rate may remain high due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled units and relatively high production profits. The country is gradually entering the off - season of agricultural demand, with only a small amount of local agricultural top - dressing demand. The autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizer enterprises are good, leading to an increase in the operating rate and procurement. The melamine operating rate has rebounded, but weak downstream demand may limit its further increase. Recently, the shipment of urea factories has shown obvious differences, and inventory changes vary. The overall inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline last week, and some factories are still fulfilling previous export orders. However, this week, the industrial demand is expected to weaken further, the increase in agricultural demand is decreasing, and the execution of previous export orders is approaching the end, so the overall de - stocking speed of urea may slow down. The Indian urea tender price far exceeds market expectations, boosting domestic market confidence. Short - term attention should be paid to the release time, quantity, and allocated enterprises of the second batch of urea export quotas. The UR2509 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou urea contract is 1764 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 33 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position of the main contract is 197,992 lots, up 206 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,957; the exchange warehouse receipts are 2630 sheets, down 15 sheets [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Henan, it is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 1820 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Anhui, it is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main Zhengzhou urea contract is 56 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 427.5 dollars/ton, up 32.5 dollars; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 410 dollars/ton, up 27.5 dollars [2] Industrial Situation - Port inventory is 48.9 million tons, up 4.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 96.77 million tons, down 5.08 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.26%, up 0.94 percentage points; the daily urea output is 197,400 tons, up 2200 tons. The urea export volume is 0. The monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 29.83%, up 0.58 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 62.56%, down 0.43 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 134 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 646 yuan/ton, down 216 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 billion tons, down 640,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,000 tons, down 300 tons [2] Industry News - As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 96.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.08 million tons or 4.99%. As of July 10, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points. As of July 10, China's urea output was 1.3818 billion tons, an increase of 1530 tons or 1.12% from the previous week, with an average daily output of 197,400 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 percentage points [2] Suggested Focus - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State has significant uncertainties, and Thailand has banned the transit transportation of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin mines. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, the tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined, and the electronics industry has entered a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has fluctuated widely, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas inventory has continued to decline. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low - position in the open interest, and the price is adjusting widely within a range. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin is 266,720 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan; the closing price of the 3 - month LME tin is 33,565 US dollars/ton, up 115 US dollars. - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai Tin is 20 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the main contract open interest for Shanghai Tin is 25,204 lots, up 1,054 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai Tin is 435 lots, down 467 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 1,970 tons, down 45 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 570 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,605 tons, down 26 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 266,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,180 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 220 yuan/ton, down 2,980 yuan; the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 251.8 US dollars/ton, down 274.01 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. - The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that US President Trump's newly announced tariff measures have muddled the inflation outlook again, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's strongly advocated interest - rate cut policy. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, the effects of the implemented monetary policies will further emerge, and in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, pay close attention to and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations [3]. 3.7重点关注 Today, there is no important news [3].