1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - Internationally, the high initial growth - stage excellent rate of US corn maintains good output prospects, continuously pressuring international corn prices. Domestically, with continuous auctions of imported corn, the transaction rate declines, premiums shrink, market sentiment cools. High - temperature weather in summer affects grain storage, increasing traders' willingness to sell. Deep - processing plants have low operating rates and weak procurement demand. Wheat has obvious feed substitution advantages, reducing corn's feed demand. So, the spot price of corn shows a weak trend, and the futures price has declined from high - level oscillations [2]. Corn Starch - Due to continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and downstream demand is in the traditional off - season. The supply - demand situation remains loose. Affected by the decline in corn prices, the starch price has also fallen recently [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 2,295 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,388 lots, up 401 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 185,811 lots, down 8,315 lots. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active contract is 2,641 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,235 lots, up 2,518 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 18,439 lots, down 460 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 346 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 418.5 cents/bushel, up 6.25 cents; the total position is 1,498,964 lots, up 297 lots; the non - commercial net long position is - 141,762 lots, up 13,764 lots [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2,413.63 yuan/ton, down 3.82 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1,899.76 yuan/ton, up 15.44 yuan. - Corn Starch: The factory price in Changchun is 2,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the factory price in Shijiazhuang is 2,860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the corn main contract is 118.63 yuan/ton, up 3.18 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 59 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons. The sown areas of the corresponding countries are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn: The inventory in southern ports is 88.6 tons, down 15.5 tons; the inventory in northern ports is 353 tons, down 17 tons; the monthly import volume is 19 tons, up 1 ton. - Corn Starch: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.7 tons, up 2.4 tons; the monthly export volume is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly output is 2,762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons; the inventory days of sample feed corn is 31.58 days, down 0.38 days. - Corn Starch Processing: The processing profit in Shandong is - 119 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the processing profit in Hebei is - 11 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the processing profit in Jilin is - 65 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.96%, down 1.92%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 50.14%, down 1.06% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.29%, down 0.29%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%, up 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 11.06%, up 2.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.07%, up 2.05% [2]. Industry News - The US corn export inspection volume in the week ending July 10, 2025, is 1,287,159 tons, lower than the previous week. The transaction rates of the imported corn (genetically modified and non - genetically modified) auction on July 15 are 25% and 30% respectively. The excellent rate of US corn as of July 13 is 74%, consistent with market expectations [2]. Key Points to Monitor - Monitor the weekly consumption of corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up. Overseas shipments arriving at the port increased, but downstream tire companies' cautious replenishment limited the port's shipping rate. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies varied last week. The production of semi - steel tire companies that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire companies dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. This week, the production of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to recover, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,600 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,600 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,395 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 870 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,015 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 149,739 lots, up 1,146 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 65,375 lots, up 42,790 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 28,999 lots, down 2,443 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 10,258 lots, down 4,310 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 187,060 tons, down 1,590 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 36,792 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 155 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,439 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.29 Thai baht/kg, down 0.08 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 61.39 Thai baht/kg, down 0.61 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 16.6 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.55%, down 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.95%, down 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.95%, up 1.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.95%, up 1.61 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, with low precipitation in most other areas, reducing the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southeastern Indonesia, with low precipitation in most other areas, increasing the impact on tapping. As of July 13, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, up 4,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, up 1.66 percentage points month - on - month and down 14.25 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, down 0.42 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.55 percentage points year - on - year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Cost factors support the current price of cis - butadiene rubber, but downstream procurement remains cautious, and shipping resistance may increase. Short - term inventory levels are expected to increase slightly. Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, while the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was slightly dragged down by individual enterprise maintenance. This week, the production schedules of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and there is room for the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises to recover. The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11300 - 11700 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the position of the main contract was 22739, a decrease of 1690. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2100 tons, an increase of 200 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11650 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 115 yuan, an increase of 90 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil was 69.21 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.15 dollars; the price of WTI crude oil was 66.98 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.47 dollars. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 597 dollars/ton, an increase of 12.75 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1070 dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9365 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan. The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.89%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 23600 tons, an increase of 1270 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 46.14%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122500 tons, a decrease of 16900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, a decrease of 362 yuan. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26500 tons, an increase of 150 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, an increase of 2.51 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.56%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, an increase of 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.76 days, a decrease of 0.72 days [2] Industry News - As of July 10, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire sample enterprises dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. In June 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 92000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 533300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The current supply and demand in the nickel market are weak. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly, and overseas inventory has accumulated again. Technically, the increase in positions and decline in price indicate a strengthening of short - selling forces. It is recommended to short with a light position [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is 15,235 dollars/ton, down 50 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 59,940 hands, down 1,587 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 14,145 hands, down 3,937 hands. LME nickel inventory is 206,580 tons, up 402 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,047 tons, up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,318 tons, up 768 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,296 tons, up 854 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 650 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 202.24 dollars/ton, down 3.99 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 896.49 million tons, up 24.65 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.44 million tons, up 1.85 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. In June, the M2 - M1 gap was 3.7 percentage points, 1.9 percentage points smaller than that in May. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The EU may impose counter - tariff measures on US goods worth about 72 billion euros if the US - EU trade negotiation fails. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources and increases the cost [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Great Beauty Act" and obvious economic stimulus for demand, lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and the annual line pressure still exists. Short - term investors can go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,005 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars [2]. - The spread between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 96,314 lots, up 1,494 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,343 lots, down 289 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 58,768 tons, up 3,638 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,149 tons, up 1,846 tons; the LME lead inventory was 260,950 tons, up 11,575 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 32.78 dollars/ton, up 0.84 dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,220 yuan, down 100 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 77.87%, down 1.18%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.61 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons [2]. - The monthly import volume of lead ore was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [2]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 10,164.29 yuan/ton, down 3.57 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,450 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,735.01 points, up 2.86 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [2]. - In June, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 6.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; from January to June, the output was 40.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [2]. - In June, the output of primary aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the output was 22.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The supply of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price, and the supply of recycled lead also increased slightly, but the supply increase was limited [2]. - The market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased [2]. - Overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased slightly, mainly due to the obvious price difference between domestic and foreign markets and obvious import processing opportunities. It is expected that the profit margin will decline in the future [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate began to decline, which will have a negative impact on the subsequent output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].

端在期货 | | 7月15日 10:00 中国第二季度GDP年率/中国6月社会消费品零售总额同比/中国6月规模以上工业增加值同比 | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 7月15日 20:30 美国6月未季调CPI年率 | | | 7月16日 04:00 英国央行行长贝利发表讲话 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 国债期货日报 2025/7/14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, heavy rainfall restricts glue output, and with strong competition from latex factories, raw material prices remain firm. In Hainan, rainfall disrupts local areas, limiting the increase in raw material supply. Local factories generally increase prices for raw material procurement. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory growth. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage have increased, but downstream tire companies are mainly replenishing stocks in moderation and observing, which suppresses the port's shipping rate, resulting in continued inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire companies varied. The production schedules of semi - steel tire companies that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire companies slightly dragged down the all - steel tire capacity utilization rate. This week, the production schedules of maintenance companies will return to normal levels, and there is still room for the capacity utilization rate to recover, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,500 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,360 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,330 yuan/ton (down 45 yuan/ton). - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 885 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), and the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 5 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton). - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,035 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 3,400 lots to 148,593 lots, and the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 2,938 lots to 22,585 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 26,556 lots (down 8,011 lots), and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 5,948 lots (up 83 lots). - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 40 tons to 188,650 tons, and the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber was 37,195 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton (unchanged). - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,100 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton). - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 60 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the basis of the non - standard product of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 210 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton). - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,437 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 112 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton). [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.37 Thai baht/kg (up 0.14 Thai baht/kg), and the market reference price of rubber sheets was 61.39 Thai baht/kg (down 0.61 Thai baht/kg). - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.3 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), and the market reference price of cup lump was 47.8 Thai baht/kg (up 0.25 Thai baht/kg). - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton (down 22 US dollars/ton), and the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 3.86 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 14.82 million tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 22.23 million tons (down 2.64 million tons). - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56% (up 0.81 percentage points), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92% (up 2.51 percentage points). [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 40.67 days (up 0.22 days), and the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.76 days (down 0.72 days). - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces (up 800,000 pieces), and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces (up 1.08 million pieces). [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.64% (up 0.01 percentage points), and the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.02% (down 0.18 percentage points). - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.35% (down 0.07 percentage points), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.34% (down 0.1 percentage points). [2] Industry News - From July 13th to July 19th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. - As of July 13th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the shipping rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the shipping rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. - As of July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises this week. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire sample enterprises dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires slightly. [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated July 14, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5010 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1033615 lots, a decrease of 198725 lots. The open interest is 956791 lots, a decrease of 10556 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8696 lots, an increase of 3254 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4888.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5030 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4949.38 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2630 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China is 2388 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 503 dollars/ton, a decrease of 21 dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 211 dollars/ton, an increase of 27 dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, an increase of 31 dollars/ton [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, a decrease of 0.47%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, a decrease of 1.59%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, an increase of 2.48%. The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons. The social inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, an increase of 1.95 tons, and in South China is 4.29 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5347.77 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, an increase of 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, an increase of 4281.68 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.35%, an increase of 0.09%. The 40 - day historical volatility is 14.64%, a decrease of 0.69%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.53%, a decrease of 0.19%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.45%, a decrease of 0.28% [3] Group 3: Industry News - On July 14, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 4810 to 4910 yuan/ton [3] - From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the previous period [3] - As of July 10th, the large - sample statistical social inventory of PVC increased by 5.37% to 62.36 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 34.15% [3] Group 4: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply of ethylene - based PVC may increase due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports, leading to a potential decline in costs. In July, domestic PVC plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance, and some plants are scheduled to restart and new plants are planned to be put into operation, which may increase the supply in the medium - to - long - term. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. With the digestion of previous macro - positive factors, the upside potential of PVC prices is limited under the weak supply - demand situation. The V2509 contract is expected to pay attention to the support around 4935 yuan/ton and the resistance around 5050 yuan/ton [3]

1. Core Views - For rapeseed meal, the current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth is "weather - dominated". The reduction of hot weather and beneficial rainfall in the Canadian plains this week bring pressure. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, and the short - term supply is loose, suppressing the price of the rapeseed meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for news on Sino - US trade negotiations. Recently, rapeseed meal has risen and may remain volatile in the short term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, although the production of Malaysian palm oil declines against the seasonal pattern, the unexpected drop in export data makes the MPOB report bearish. High - frequency data shows that the export improvement from July 1 - 10 provides some support, and the rebound of international oil prices also supports the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the oil - mill operating rate reduces the output pressure. The uncertainty of third - quarter rapeseed purchases and the potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. Affected by the weakening of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil has declined in a volatile manner and may continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9424 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2659 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 683 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.9 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5099 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 81 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 355 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 16649 lots, up 1298 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are 4915 lots, up 6885 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 256301 lots, and for rapeseed meal are 560897 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 sheets, and for rapeseed meal is 12466 sheets [2]. 2.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2550 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9650 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 4893.66 yuan/ton, down 30.48 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.69, down 0.02; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 171 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 109 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 810 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 2.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200 thousand tons, up 50 thousand tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86%, down 2.67 percentage points. The imported rapeseed crushing profit is 304 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. 2.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 92.9 thousand tons, down 7.2 thousand tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 15.1 thousand tons, up 10.5 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 592.7 thousand tons, down 6.8 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 355.8 thousand tons, down 13.2 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 69 thousand tons, down 3 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 293 thousand tons, down 8 thousand tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 21.1 thousand tons, down 8.9 thousand tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 23.2 thousand tons, down 11.6 thousand tons [2]. 2.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981 thousand tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2]. 2.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.17%, up 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.02%, up 0.56 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.45%, down 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.48%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 0.49%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.82%, down 2.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.19%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. 2.7 Industry News - On July 11th, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the improved weather conditions in the Canadian plains. The most actively traded November rapeseed contract closed down 2.40 Canadian dollars at 682.70 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 2.50 Canadian dollars to 691.10 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year. The current weather in US soybean - producing areas is good, and the good - to - excellent rate is relatively high. The US tariff issue may damage the downstream demand for US soybeans and restrict the market price [2]. 2.8 Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions released by myagric on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the US has restarted the tariff war, the market has become somewhat insensitive after previous fluctuations in the trade situation. With the release of semi - annual performance forecasts of listed companies, the market is optimistic about their first - half profits. The effects of loose monetary policies are evident, and the improvement in external demand has led to positive GDP expectations. The market anticipates positive second - quarter economic data, and the fundamental recovery supports the stock market. As the Politburo meeting at the end of July approaches, market bulls may pre - arrange, driving the stock market up. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Futures Contract Data - IF主力合约（2509）最新价3985.8，环比下降13.0；IF次主力合约（2507）最新价4009.0，环比下降11.6；IH主力合约（2509）最新价2747.4，环比下降12.8；IH次主力合约（2507）最新价2751.8，环比下降23.2；IC主力合约（2509）最新价5897.6，环比下降18.0；IC次主力合约（2507）最新价6008.4，环比下降19.0；IM主力合约（2509）最新价6302.2，环比下降13.0；IM次主力合约（2507）最新价6442.2，环比下降13.0 [2] - IC - IF当月合约价差1257.2，环比下降9.0；IF - IH当月合约价差1999.4，环比下降2.8；IC - IH当月合约价差3256.6，环比下降11.8；IM - IC当月合约价差433.8，环比下降5.0；IM - IH当月合约价差3690.4，环比下降7.8；IM - IF当月合约价差2433.2，环比下降2.0 [2] - IF下季 - 当月为 - 23.2，环比下降4.8；IF当季 - 当月为 - 53.8，环比下降1.4；IH下季 - 当月为 - 4.4，环比下降8.2；IH当季 - 当月为 - 1.8，环比上升0.2；IC下季 - 当月为 - 110.8，环比下降4.8；IC当季 - 当月为 - 233.8，环比下降7.0；IM下季 - 当月为 - 140.0，环比下降4.6；IM当季 - 当月为 - 321.4，环比下降4.6 [2] - IF前20名净持仓为 - 29,007.00，环比下降735.0；IH前20名净持仓环比上升2211.0；IC前20名净持仓为 - 11,851.00，环比上升885.0；IM前20名净持仓环比上升1903.0 [2] - IF主力合约基差环比上升2.9；IH主力合约基差环比上升1.0；IC主力合约基差环比下降6.2；IM主力合约基差环比上升1.2 [2] b. Market Sentiment Data - A股成交额（日）为14,809.22亿元，环比上升20.81；两融余额（前一交易日）为18,757.94亿元，环比下降2556.88；逆回购（到期量，操作量）为2455.04亿元，环比上升432.40；北向成交合计（前一交易日）为 - 1065.0亿元，环比上升2262.0；MLF（续作量，净投放）为 - 405.03亿元；主力资金（昨日，今日）为 - 119.66亿元 [2] - Shibor（日）为1.415%，环比上升0.082；上涨股票比例（日）为58.69%，环比上升4.03；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率环比下降8.00；IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2507）为28.80，环比下降0.59；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率环比下降1.20；IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2507）为18.40，环比下降0.59；成交量PCR环比上升0.01；沪深300指数20日波动率为8.69%，环比上升13.64；持仓量PCR为74.76%，环比下降0.36 [2] - 技术面：Wind市场强弱分析中，全部A股为5.90，环比上升0.50；资金面为6.00，环比下降0.60 [2] c. Industry News - On July 14, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in June, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 7.2% year - on - year (previous value: 6.3%), imports increased by 2.3% (previous value: - 2.1%), and the trade surplus was 8259.7 billion yuan (previous value: 7435.6 billion yuan). In the first half of the year, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, imports decreased by 2.7%, and the trade surplus was 42125.1 billion yuan. In June, exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year (previous value: 4.8%), imports increased by 1.1% (previous value: - 3.4%), and the trade surplus was 1147.7 billion US dollars (previous value: 1032.2 billion US dollars). In the first half of the year, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, imports decreased by 3.9%, and the trade surplus was 5859.6 billion US dollars [2] - On July 14, the central bank announced that in the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In the first half of the year, 363.3 billion yuan of cash was net - injected [2] - As of 21:00 on July 13, 510 A - share listed companies had released their semi - annual performance forecasts for 2025, of which 301 were positive, with a positive forecast ratio of about 59.02% [2] - According to data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, foreign capital has increased its holdings of A - shares for two consecutive quarters. As of the end of the second quarter of this year, north - bound funds held 2907 stocks, with a total market value of about 2.29 trillion yuan. Compared with the end of 2024, the market value of north - bound funds' holdings increased by 87.1 billion yuan; compared with the first quarter of 2025, it increased by more than 50 billion yuan [2] d. Market Performance - A - share major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index was slightly stronger in a volatile manner, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index were slightly weaker. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. Most industry sectors rose, with the machinery and equipment sector leading the gains and the real estate sector leading the losses [2] e. Upcoming Key Data - July 15, 10:00: China's June fixed - asset investment, industrial added value of large - scale industries, total retail sales of consumer goods, and unemployment rate; second - quarter GDP - July 15, 20:30: US June CPI and core CPI - July 16, 20:30: US June PPI and core PPI - July 17, 20:30: US June import price index, retail sales, and core retail sales [3]