Report Overview - The report is a daily strategy report on Treasury bond futures from Shenwan Futures on December 8, 2025, providing data on Treasury bond futures, short - term market rates, and macro - news [1][2][3] 1. Treasury Bond Futures Market 1.1 Futures Market Data - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures prices generally rose, with the T2603 contract rising 0.19%. The trading volume and price changes varied among different contracts, and most contracts saw a decrease in open interest [2] - The active CTD bond IRR% of each Treasury bond futures main contract was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] 1.2 Market Indicators - Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate decreased by 0.8bp, DR007 rate increased by 1.11bp, and GC007 rate increased by 1.2bp [2] - Key - term Chinese Treasury bond yields generally declined. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped 2.34bp to 1.85%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 34.93bp [2] - Overseas key - term Treasury bond yields mostly increased. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 3bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 1.2bp [2] 2. Macro News 2.1 Central Bank Operations - On December 5, the central bank conducted 139.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate, with a net withdrawal of 161.5 billion yuan. This week, 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [3] 2.2 Regulatory Policies - The draft of the "Guidelines for Performance Evaluation and Management of Fund Management Companies" requires higher follow - up investment ratios for executives and fund managers. For example, at least 30% of the annual total performance compensation of the chairman and executives of a fund company should be used to purchase the company's funds [3] 2.3 Industry Events - At the Eighth Member Congress of the China Securities Association, the CSRC Chairman Wu Qing pointed out that A - shares have achieved reasonable growth in quantity and effective improvement in quality. He also put forward requirements for the securities industry, such as playing the role of analysis and research, expanding the capital space and leverage limit of securities firms, and so on [3] 2.4 National Policies - The CSRC Chairman Wu Qing published a signed article clarifying the key tasks and measures for improving the institutional inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [3] 2.5 International Economic Data - The US September core PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, basically in line with market expectations. The one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in December dropped to 4.1%, and the five - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.2% [3] 3. Industry Information and Comments 3.1 Interest Rate Movements - Money market interest rates showed mixed trends. Some inter - bank lending rates decreased, while some repurchase rates increased. US Treasury bond yields rose across the board [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - The market funds were stable, but concerns about global liquidity tightening and some domestic factors such as the decline in demand for long - term Treasury bonds and the implementation of new fund sales regulations affected the bond market. The long - term Treasury bond futures prices weakened [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the mild recovery of the domestic economy and the increasing expectation of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December interest - rate meeting and the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference will affect the A - share market rhythm in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and the investment mainline in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to be mainly volatile with funds preferring defensive allocations. After the meeting content is clear, the positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cuts may boost market risk appetite again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4530.60, 4512.20, 4492.20, and 4441.60 respectively, with increases of 17.20, 14.20, 15.40, and 12.00 respectively, and increases of 0.38%, 0.32%, 0.34%, and 0.27% respectively. The trading volumes were 63708.00, 3708.00, 20155.00, and 5003.00 respectively, and the open interests were 136475.00, 8471.00, 90771.00, and 26187.00 respectively, with changes of - 5723.00, 505.00, 851.00, and 425.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 2968.20, 2959.80, 2958.60, and 2943.80 respectively, with increases of 13.00, 10.00, 10.80, and 10.60 respectively, and increases of 0.44%, 0.34%, 0.37%, and 0.36% respectively. The trading volumes were 27688.00, 1268.00, 8640.00, and 1677.00 respectively, and the open interests were 53262.00, 2694.00, 23841.00, and 7797.00 respectively, with changes of - 2692.00, 228.00, - 354.00, and - 202.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 6983.20, 6926.20, 6812.20, and 6605.00 respectively, with increases of 42.00, 37.80, 40.20, and 39.00 respectively, and increases of 0.61%, 0.55%, 0.59%, and 0.59% respectively. The trading volumes were 64721.00, 4034.00, 23747.00, and 7294.00 respectively, and the open interests were 123278.00, 11229.00, 76774.00, and 32908.00 respectively, with changes of - 10513.00, 789.00, 1096.00, and 52.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 7213.40, 7137.20, 6987.80, and 6748.20 respectively, with increases of 28.00, 23.20, 26.60, and 27.40 respectively, and increases of 0.39%, 0.33%, 0.38%, and 0.41% respectively. The trading volumes were 116454.00, 7618.00, 35706.00, and 12279.00 respectively, and the open interests were 181088.00, 17229.00, 102333.00, and 56566.00 respectively, with changes of - 11986.00, 1137.00, - 1707.00, and - 1212.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 18.40, - 8.40, - 57.00, and - 76.20 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 16.00, - 6.60, - 56.60, and - 74.20 respectively [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value was 4546.57, with an increase of 0.34%. The trading volume was 147.20 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 3487.67 billion yuan [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value was 2974.34, with an increase of 0.38%. The trading volume was 36.28 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 886.22 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value was 7012.81, with an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume was 141.04 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 2399.13 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value was 7248.66, with an increase of 0.01%. The trading volume was 194.84 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 3113.16 billion yuan [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption had increases of 0.48%, 0.41%, 0.66%, and 0.25% respectively; main consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology had changes of - 0.79%, 0.28%, - 0.08%, and 1.09% respectively; telecommunications and public utilities had changes of 0.94% and - 0.23% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the CSI 300 Index were - 15.97, - 34.37, - 54.37, and - 104.97 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 12.85, - 28.85, - 48.65, and - 97.25 respectively [1] - The previous values of the basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the SSE 50 Index were - 6.14, - 14.54, - 15.74, and - 30.54 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 4.68, - 11.28, - 11.88, and - 26.08 respectively [1] - The previous values of the basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the CSI 500 Index were - 29.61, - 86.61, - 200.61, and - 407.81 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 45.96, - 102.56, - 214.96, and - 423.76 respectively [1] - The previous values of the basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the CSI 1000 Index were - 35.26, - 111.46, - 260.86, and - 500.46 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 52.87, - 127.07, - 280.07, and - 517.27 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3875.79, 13006.72, 7904.33, and 3067.48 respectively, with changes of - 0.06%, 0.40%, 0.26%, and 1.01% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25935.90, 49864.68, 6857.12, and 23899.33 respectively, with changes of 0.68%, 1.14%, 0.87%, and 0.11% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron. The two sides emphasized mutual support on core interests and major concerns, exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis, and witnessed the signing of cooperation documents in multiple fields [2] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade organized Chinese entrepreneurs to communicate with US - China Business Council and its member enterprises in Washington, and the council's president also attended a seminar with the US Semiconductor Industry Association and its member enterprises to discuss cooperation in the semiconductor field [2] - The Chinese government conducts export control of rare - earth - related items in accordance with laws and regulations, and approves compliant export applications for civilian use in a timely manner. The Chinese side urges Japan to correct its wrong words and deeds on the Taiwan issue [2] - The EU has terminated the lawsuit against China's trade - restriction measures at the WTO. China believes the EU's decision to terminate the lawsuit is correct [2] - More than 15 regions have issued "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, with a focus on artificial intelligence and other cutting - edge industries, each with its own layout and development direction [2] 6. Industry Information - The Future Network Test Facility, the first national major scientific and technological infrastructure in the field of information and communication in China, has been officially put into operation, providing open - test support for multiple fields and carrying out demonstration applications in cutting - edge directions [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a recommended national standard for food - delivery platforms, aiming to solve problems such as "ghost food - delivery" and promote the healthy development of the food - delivery industry [2] - In November, the number of second - hand housing transactions in first - tier cities reached 49,000, a seven - month high, with a month - on - month increase of 20%. In the first 11 months of this year, the cumulative number of second - hand housing transactions in first - tier cities reached 519,000, a year - on - year increase of about 5% [2] - In December, the supply of new housing is expected to be stable at a low level. The single - month supply of 28 cities is expected to decline by 12% month - on - month and 49% year - on - year, and the annual cumulative supply is expected to decline by 19% year - on - year. However, due to "quality improvement and quantity reduction" in supply and year - end discounts, the new - housing transactions in December are expected to have a pulse - like recovery [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US stock indexes showed mixed performance. The previous trading day, the stock index fluctuated and recovered. The machinery and equipment sector led the gains, while the comprehensive sector led the losses. The market turnover was 1.56 trillion yuan. On December 3, the margin trading balance decreased by 3.713 billion yuan to 2.465189 trillion yuan [2] - In December 2025, the global financial market will face two "policy wind vanes": the Fed's December interest - rate meeting and the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference. Their policy resonance will affect the A - share market rhythm in December and the investment mainline in 2026 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Copper: Night-time copper prices closed slightly lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break-even point. Although smelting output decreased month-on-month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, household appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disturbances in mines have led to a global copper supply-demand deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night-time zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, household appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention should be paid to the current bullish sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Prices and Market Data - Copper: The previous domestic futures closing price was 90,960 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 110 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 11,434 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 88.38 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 162,150 tons with a daily increase of 350 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,055 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 80 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,888 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 533,400 tons with a daily decrease of 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,820 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,085 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 186.85 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 52,450 tons with a daily increase of 75 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 117,340 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,200 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,885 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 196.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 252,990 tons with a daily decrease of 84 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,016 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 253,150 tons with a daily decrease of 3,800 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 315,520 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 9,790 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 40,540 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 133.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,195 tons with a daily increase of 50 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. On the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of downstream demand is high, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the rebound, they generally maintain a low - level oscillation process. Future attention should be paid to marginal consumption, supply, and production scheduling levels [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6776, 6829, and 6867 respectively, down -0.47%, -0.65%, and -0.67% from the day before the previous day. For PP, the corresponding prices were 6359, 6452, and 6482, down -0.36%, -0.40%, and -0.32%. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210139, 118193, and 1134 respectively. For PP, they were 206027, 87292, and 1646. - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 386484, 269785, and 4453 respectively, with changes of -16226, 14989, and 180. For PP, they were 450199, 292556, and 17718, with changes of -9702, 10392, and 161. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -53, -38, and 91 respectively, compared with -66, -39, and 105 previously. For PP, they were -93, -30, and 123, compared with -96, -25, and 121 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2116 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 583 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. - **Mid - stream**: In the LL market, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China were 6850 - 7250 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively. In the PP market, they were 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6300 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (December 4), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.67 per barrel, up $0.72 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.81 - $60.02. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.26 per barrel, up $0.59 or 0.94%, with a trading range of $62.53 - $63.62 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures generally declined in the previous trading day, with the T2603 contract falling 0.34% and its holding volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, presenting no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term treasury bond yields in China also varied, with the 10Y treasury bond yield rising 3.02bp to 1.87%. Overseas, the 10Y treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan showed different changes. The market was affected by multiple factors such as central bank operations, economic data, and policy expectations, leading to the weakening of long - term treasury bond futures prices [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The previous trading day saw the closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 decline, with decreases of -0.05%, -0.07%, -0.24%, -0.24%, -0.34%, -0.37%, -1.02%, and -1.03% respectively. The holding volumes of TS2603, TS2606, and TL2603, TL2606 increased by 1814, 176, 894, and 1454 respectively, while those of TF2603, TF2606, and T2603 decreased by 1606, 68, and 7127 respectively. The trading volumes of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 41390, 554, 99144, 1549, 148085, 6564, 224953, and 16855 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The inter - period spreads of TS2603 - TS2606, TF2603 - TF2606, T2603 - T2606, and TL2603 - TL2606 were -0.020, -0.015, -0.025, and -0.160 respectively, with the previous values being -0.036, -0.0150, -0.0500, and -0.1700 respectively [2] - **CTD Bond IRR**: The IRR of the active CTD bonds of each contract were 1.4156, -0.273, 0.9011, -0.8605, 1.2604, 1.2037, 1.1353, and 2.1208 respectively, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: In the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate decreased by 0.2bp, DR007 interest rate increased by 0.15bp, and GC007 interest rate increased by 0bp [2] - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y treasury bonds were 1.42, 1.41, 1.41, 1.65, 1.77, 1.87, 2.30, and 2.28 respectively, with changes of 0.04, 0.47, -0.21, 3.22, 4.22, 3.02, 6, and 5.85bp respectively. The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 36.94bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: In the previous trading day, the yields of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y US treasury bonds were 3.52, 3.68, 4.11, and 4.76 respectively, with increases of 3.0, 6.0, 5.0, and 3.0bp respectively; the yields of 2Y and 10Y German treasury bonds were 2.050 and 2.840 respectively, with an increase of 1.0bp and 0.0bp respectively; the yields of 2Y and 10Y Japanese treasury bonds were 1.016 and 1.897 respectively, with increases of 1.1 and 3.3bp respectively [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On December 4, the central bank conducted 180.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 356.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. On December 5, the central bank will conduct 100 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, which will achieve an equal - amount offset. It is expected that the central bank will conduct a 6 - month outright operation in December and is likely to increase the volume for roll - over [3] - **Economic Data**: The OECD estimated that the global economic growth in 2025 is 3.2% (unchanged from the previous estimate), and raised the estimate of China's economic growth in 2025 from 4.9% to 5.0%. Deutsche Bank Research raised the forecast of China's GDP year - on - year growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 4.6% and the full - year growth rate forecast to 5.0%. In November, the number of second - hand housing transactions in first - tier cities reached 49,000, a 7 - month high, with a month - on - month increase of 20%. In the first 11 months of this year, the cumulative number of second - hand housing transactions in first - tier cities was 519,000, a year - on - year increase of about 5%, breaking through the 510,000 mark for the first time in four years. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022 [3] Market Comment and Strategy - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures prices generally declined, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond increased to 1.857%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the open - market treasury bond trading in November had a net injection of 5 billion yuan. Shibor short - term varieties mostly increased, and the market capital was relatively stable. The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, the ADP employment data showed a decrease in private - sector jobs, increasing the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The Bank of Japan governor strongly hinted at a December interest - rate hike, causing the yen to appreciate significantly and raising concerns about global liquidity tightening. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2% from the previous month, indicating overall stable economic sentiment. However, the decline in commercial housing sales continued to expand, and second - hand housing prices continued to fall month - on - month. The bond extension of Vanke impacted the credit bond market. With the approaching of the year - end important meetings, the expectation of policy introduction increased, and the implementation of the new regulations on fund sales would also disrupt the bond market, leading to the weakening of long - term treasury bond futures prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The night - session of protein meal showed a weak and volatile trend. Brazilian soybean sowing progress has accelerated, but China's suspension of five Brazilian exporters' qualifications has raised concerns about South American supply stability. US soybean export sales are still slow, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient with high - level bean meal inventory restricting price upside. [3] - The night - session of oils and fats showed a weak performance. Palm oil production areas are in the rainy season. Although palm oil exports have slowed down, the production increase is lower than expected. The MPOB monthly report is imminent, and the palm oil inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in November, with a possible inventory inflection point in December, limiting the upside space. For rapeseed oil, the arrival of imported Australian rapeseeds has alleviated the supply shortage expectation, potentially suppressing its price. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, spreads, and price - ratio spreads of various varieties such as soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are presented. For example, the soybean oil main contract's previous day's closing price was 8254, with a price change of - 32 and a price change percentage of - 0.39%. [2] 3.2 International Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and price change percentages of international futures such as BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal are provided. For instance, BMD palm oil's previous day's closing price was 4118 ringgit/ton, with a price change of 19 and a price change percentage of 0.46%. [2] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - Spot prices, price change percentages, spot basis, and spot spreads of domestic products are given. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8520, with a price change percentage of - 0.35%, and the spot basis is 266. [2] 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - The import and crushing profits of various products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, US West soybeans, Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and Canadian rapeseeds are presented. For example, the import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 537. [2] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for products like soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are provided. For example, the current value of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 18,269. [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Brazil's expected export volumes in December are 281 million tons of soybeans, 133 million tons of soybean meal, and 499 million tons of corn. Canada's 2025 rapeseed production is expected to increase by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse, and the short - term trend of methanol is oscillating weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: SC near - month futures price was 459.0 yuan/barrel, down 6.3 yuan (-1.35%); SC next - month was 455.5 yuan/barrel, down 9.0 yuan (-1.94%). WTI near - month was 59.58 dollars/barrel, down 1.09 dollars (-1.80%); WTI next - month was 59.41 dollars/barrel, down 1.16 dollars (-1.92%). Brent near - month was 64.82 dollars/barrel, up 0.79 dollars (1.23%); Brent next - month was 64.36 dollars/barrel, up 0.74 dollars (1.16%). The trading volume of SC next - month was 119,095, and its open interest was 39,074, with a decrease of 1984 [2]. - **Spread**: The current spread between SC near - month and SC next - month was 3.5 yuan/barrel, compared with the previous value of 0.8 yuan/barrel [2]. Spot Market - **International Market**: International crude oil spot and refined oil prices declined. For example, the OPEC basket crude oil price dropped from 63.79 dollars to 63.44 dollars [2]. - **Domestic Market**: In the domestic market, the prices of crude oil and refined oil also showed changes. For instance, the wholesale price index of Chinese gasoline increased from 7,475 yuan/ton to 7,484 yuan/ton [2]. Crude Oil Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: The market has a skeptical attitude towards the restart of the Ukraine peace process. The IEA estimated that the daily supply of 9 OPEC countries with quotas in October was 23.77 million barrels, 180,000 barrels less than that in September and 720,000 barrels higher than the target [3]. - **Drilling Wells**: As of November 26, the number of active drilling oil wells in the US was 407, 12 less than the previous week and 70 less than the same period last year [3]. Methanol Analysis - **Device Operation**: The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 86.47%, a 0.55 - percentage - point decrease. The overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 75.74%, a 0.51 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period but a 2.10 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [3]. - **Inventory**: Coastal methanol inventory decreased by 945,000 tons (5.88%) to 1.514 million tons compared to November 20, and was 29.68% higher than the same period last year. The estimated available methanol in the coastal area was around 815,000 tons. The expected arrival volume of imported methanol from November 28 to December 14 was 1.0089 - 1.01 million tons [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Night - session copper prices closed higher, hitting a record high. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break - even point, and smelting output, while declining month - on - month, continues to grow overall. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to a global copper supply - demand gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally high, infrastructure investment growth has slowed, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Metal Price and Market Data - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 89,150 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 90 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 11,449 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 88.38 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 161,800 tons, and the daily change was 2,375 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,897 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 535,900 tons, and the daily change was - 2,000 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,720 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,062 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 186.85 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 52,375 tons, and the daily change was 350 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 117,600 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,330 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 14,875 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 196.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 253,074 tons, and the daily change was - 1,290 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,195 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 1,999 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 256,950 tons, and the daily change was - 3,925 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 311,370 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 7,390 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 40,750 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 133.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,145 tons, and the daily change was - 15 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - In the context of China's mild economic recovery and the increasing expectation of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December interest rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference will affect the A-share market rhythm in December and lay the foundation for the cross-year market and investment themes in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to remain volatile, with funds favoring defensive allocations. Once the meeting contents are clear and the positive policy signals resonate with the Fed's interest rate cuts, market risk appetite is expected to rise again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased compared to the day before, with declines ranging from -0.25% to -0.30%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts also decreased, with declines ranging from -0.35% to -0.41%. The trading volume and open interest showed different trends, and the open interest of most contracts increased [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts dropped, with declines from -0.35% to -0.42%. The trading volume and open interest changed, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines ranging from -0.53% to -0.58%. The trading volume and open interest varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts had different values compared to the previous values, with some spreads widening and some remaining the same [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Stock Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes decreased compared to the day before, with declines of -0.51%, -0.52%, -0.62%, and -0.89% respectively. The trading volume and total trading amount also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 industry index showed different trends, with the raw materials industry rising by 0.85% and other industries such as energy, industry, and optional consumption showing declines [1] 3. Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between futures and spot of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased compared to the day before, indicating changes in the relationship between futures and spot prices [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all decreased, with declines ranging from -0.51% to -1.12% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by -1.28%, the DAX Index decreased by -0.07%, the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.30%, and the Nikkei 225 Index remained unchanged [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The US ADP employment data in November showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, far below market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic economic cycle. Relevant measures should be taken in urbanization planning, population citizenization, urban renewal, and breaking the urban - rural dual structure [2] - The US President signed a law regarding US - Taiwan relations, and China urged the US to stop official exchanges with Taiwan and not send wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" forces [2] - The State Council approved the "Yangtze River Delta Territorial Space Planning (2023 - 2035)", which aims to support Shanghai in playing a leading role and promote the construction of a world - class city cluster [2] - From January to November this year, consumer goods trade - in drove related commodity sales of over 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6.58443 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit decreased by 269.39 billion yuan year - on - year [2] 6. Industry Information - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration issued an action plan for the integrated development of culture, tourism, and civil aviation, including 15 specific measures [2] - As the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan of national subsidy funds is further consumed, more than 20 cities across the country have suspended or adjusted automobile trade - in subsidy activities [2] - In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.263 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the retail sales of the new - energy vehicle market were 1.354 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the penetration rate of the new - energy vehicle market was 59.8% [2] - In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Energy logistics demand slowed down, while logistics demand in the industrial manufacturing and consumer sectors showed positive and stable trends respectively [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA did not adjust the U.S. soybean crushing volume in the November report. In October, U.S. soybean crushing reached a record 227.65 million bushels, with a 15% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year increase. The December USDA report may keep the crushing unchanged, with little adjustment to U.S. soybean supply and demand and ending stocks [3]. - Malaysian palm oil inventories soared to a six - year high in November due to lower exports, increasing 10% month - on - month to 2.71 million tons, 47% higher than a year ago [3]. - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was strong. The USDA report lowered the U.S. soybean yield forecast for 2025/2026, but the actual report data was less bullish than expected. U.S. soybean crushing demand is strong, while domestic soybean meal remains in a loose pattern with high inventories, and Dalian soybean meal is expected to adjust following U.S. soybeans [3]. - Night trading of soybean and palm oil was weak, and rapeseed oil closed up in a volatile manner. The MPOB report showed an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports, and inventories continued to build up. The market rumor of the EPA's RVO plan boosted the demand expectation of soybean oil for biodiesel, but the upcoming arrival of Australian rapeseeds and frequent state reserve sales pressured rapeseed oil prices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8286, 8730, 9711, 3046, 2408, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were - 2, 10, - 34, 1, - 15, and 26, and the percentage changes were - 0.02%, 0.11%, - 3.15%, 0.03%, - 0.62%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various futures contracts are presented, such as Y9 - 1 at - 256, P9 - 1 at - 134, etc., with corresponding changes compared to the previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4099 ringgit/ton, 1116 cents/bushel, 52 cents/pound, and 311 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were 39, - 8, - 1, - 0, and the percentage changes were 0.96%, - 0.69%, - 1.65%, - 0.13% respectively [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals, such as Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil, etc., are given, along with their percentage changes. The spot basis and spreads are also presented [1]. Import and Profitability - **Import Profits**: The current import profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, U.S. Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, U.S. West soybeans, Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and Canadian rapeseeds are - 476, - 197, 50, - 153, 362, and 785 respectively, with changes compared to the previous values [1]. Warehouse Receipts - **Quantities**: The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 24,627, 730, 4,131, 40,840, 2,000, and 0 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1][2].