2025年04月08日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.676 | 102.766 | 106.480 | 106.500 | 109.180 | 109.200 | 120.8 | 120.88 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.532 | 102.612 | 106.135 | 106.135 | 108.575 | 108.610 | 118.75 | 118.84 | | | 涨跌 | 0.144 | 0.154 | 0.345 | 0.365 | 0.605 ...

报告日期：2025 年 3 月 31 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：政策逐步落地，宏观氛围向好 按照党中央和国务院决策部署，2025 年，财政部将发行首批特别国债 5000 亿元， 积极支持中国银行、中国建设银行、交通银行、中国邮政储蓄银行补充核心一级 资本。此次资本补充工作将按照市场化、法治化原则稳妥推进。 当地时间 3 月 31 日，据俄罗斯"消息报"援引俄直接投资基金总裁德米特里耶 夫的话说，俄美已经启动有关俄罗斯稀土金属项目的讨论。德米特里耶夫表示， 美国企业对潜在的合作协议已表现出兴趣，预计俄美代表将于四月中旬在沙特首 都利雅得举行新一轮会谈。报道称，俄美双方重启对话后不仅讨论政治议题，还 涉及经济合作等领域。 重点品种：股指、原油、黄金 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指回落，基础化工板块领跌，全市成交 额 1.15 万亿元，其中 IH2504 下跌 0.50%，IF2504 下跌 0.55%，IC2504 下跌 0.93%， IM2504 下跌 1.13%。资金方面，3 月 27 日融资余额减少 32.24 亿元至 19151.85 亿元。4 月上市公司即将进入年报披露密集期，同时一季报 ...

| | 原油：sc夜盘下跌0.68%。在特朗普对委内瑞拉原油买家加征关税的消息宣布后，全 | | --- | --- | | | 球最大的综合型炼油厂印度信实工业公司将停止从委内瑞拉进口原油。国际能源署表 | | | 示，随着经济复苏后，世界石油需求增长放缓，以及航空和石化原料需求导致的石油 | | | 消费，石油在全球能源需求中的份额在2024年首次降至30%以下。特朗普最新宣布从 | | | 下周起对进口汽车和轻型卡车征收25%关税对石油需求的影响。人们认为，这可能会 | | | 推高汽车价格，潜在地影响对石油的需求，但也会减缓向更环保汽车的转变。短期注 | | 评论及策 | 意地缘政治风险。 | | 略 | 甲醇：甲醇夜盘下跌0.43%。国内煤（甲醇）制烯烃装置平均开工负荷在82.35%，环 | | | 比下降0.61个百分点。截至3月27日，国内甲醇整体装置开工负荷为71.41%，环比下 | | | 降1.03个百分点，较去年同期下降0.91个百分点。进口船货到港量较少，沿海整体甲 | | | 醇库存延续下降。截至3月27日，沿海地区甲醇库存在85.5万吨（目前库存处于历史 | | | 的中等偏下位置 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The A-share market in April may show a volatile and differentiated trend, entering the "April Decision" stage. High-quality companies are more likely to achieve excess returns, and the market will shift from previous valuation-driven to fundamental pricing. It is recommended to take a short-term wait-and-see approach for stock index futures and focus on buying options for stock index options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with declines of -21.80, -21.40, -21.40, and -18.40 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 39,177.00, 1,997.00, 51,648.00, and 8,815.00, and the open interest changes were -1,177.00, 555.00, -4,065.00, and -1,101.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with declines of -13.40, -13.20, -13.40, and -11.60 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 17,200.00, 1,704.00, 25,280.00, and 4,058.00, and the open interest changes were -3,990.00, 213.00, -4,644.00, and -342.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased, with declines of -55.00, -57.40, -53.20, and -51.00 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 44,969.00, 3,396.00, 33,059.00, and 7,347.00, and the open interest changes were -5,900.00, -48.00, -2,876.00, and -518.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines of -71.20, -65.00, -69.60, and -64.20 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 80,638.00, 5,364.00, 136,714.00, and 16,884.00, and the open interest changes were -11,708.00, 1,547.00, -8,195.00, and -1,188.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of the inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were -3.40, 2.60, -38.80, and -50.60 respectively, compared to the previous values of -3.20, 0.40, -40.60, and -58.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index decreased, with declines of -0.67%, -0.57%, -0.58%, and -0.79% respectively. The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index also decreased, with declines of -0.65%, -1.80%, -1.97%, and -0.96% respectively [1] - **Sector Indexes**: Among the sectors of the CSI 300, the energy sector had a decline of -1.28%, the raw materials sector had a decline of -0.18%, the industrial sector had a decline of -0.53%, the optional consumption sector had a decline of -0.54%, the primary consumption sector had a decline of -0.49%, the healthcare sector had a decline of -0.43%, the real estate and finance sector had a decline of -0.23%, the information technology sector had a decline of -0.85%, the telecommunications business sector had a decline of -0.08%, and the utilities sector had an increase of 0.19% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts against the CSI 300 were -6.37, -9.77, -31.17, and -78.17 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of -3.01, -6.21, -27.81, and -77.41 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts against the SSE 50 were 0.86, 3.46, -2.14, and -34.74 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 2.76, 3.16, -0.24, and -34.24 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts against the CSI 500 were -46.43, -85.23, -149.23, and -277.83 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of -35.40, -76.00, -138.60, and -268.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 were -55.72, -106.32, -189.92, and -353.32 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of -47.37, -105.57, -185.37, and -351.57 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, with declines of -0.67%, -0.57%, -0.58%, and -0.79% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index all declined, with declines of -0.65%, -1.80%, -1.97%, and -0.96% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - **Banking Sector**: The Ministry of Finance will invest 500 billion yuan in four major banks (Bank of Communications, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Postal Savings Bank of China) through strategic investment. After the issuance, the Ministry of Finance will become the controlling shareholder of the Bank of Communications. The interest rates of bank consumer loans may increase starting from April [2] - **Policy and Events**: China plans to build high - standard farmland by 2030 and 2035. The 13th China - Japan - South Korea Economic and Trade Ministers' Meeting was held in Seoul, South Korea [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **New Energy Vehicles**: The substitution effect of new energy vehicles on fuel vehicles was about 98% last year. This year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 17 million, and the market share of domestic new energy passenger vehicles will approach 58%. In 2025, China's automobile sales are expected to increase by 3% - 4% [2] - **Artificial Intelligence**: The "China Association for Artificial Intelligence Embodied Intelligence White Paper" was released, and the Embodied Intelligence Professional Committee of the China Association for Artificial Intelligence was established [2] - **Energy Storage**: The world's first intrinsically safe semi - open energy - storage lithium - ion battery was displayed, and the company has reached cooperation intentions with South Korean and Middle Eastern partners on building overseas production lines for battery cabinet systems [2] - **Tourism**: As of March 28, Hong Kong has received more than 3.4 million tourists, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The financial market atmosphere in Hong Kong has been significantly improved this year [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - The U.S. three major indexes declined, and the stock indexes in the previous trading session also declined. The basic chemical sector led the decline. The total trading volume of the whole market was 1.15 trillion yuan. The margin balance on March 27 decreased by 3.224 billion yuan to 1.915185 trillion yuan. In April, listed companies will enter the intensive period of annual report disclosure, and the first - quarter reports will also be gradually announced. For the high - valuation technology sectors with large previous increases, funds may be more rational. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach for stock index futures and focus on buying options for stock index options [2]

| lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LL | PP | | | | | | | | 1月 | 5月 9月 1月 5月 9月 | | | | | | | | 前日收盘价 | | 7579 | 7701 | 7619 | 7306 | 7339 | 7316 | | 前2日收盘价 | 期 | 7579 | 7714 | 7616 | 7323 | 7347 | 7318 | | 涨跌 | 货 | 0 | -13 | 3 | -17 | -8 | -2 | | 涨跌幅 | 市 | 0.00% | -0.17% | 0.04% | -0.23% | -0.11% | -0.03% | | 成交量 | 场 | 925 | 286314 | 79914 | 167 | 256839 | 70440 | | 持仓量 | | 6853 | 450261 | 200277 | 1290 | 345250 | 184815 | | 持仓量增减 | | 37 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel products: Terminal demand shows signs of stabilization, with no further deterioration in fundamentals, but the sustainability of real steel - using demand needs careful observation. Steel mills' profits are recovering, and total production is on the rise. The sustainability of rebar's apparent consumption remains to be seen. Key points to watch are steel mills' resumption speed and demand recovery, and whether demand can absorb increased production to avoid negative feedback. With domestic macro - policies in place and fundamental transactions providing support, be vigilant about overseas tariff disturbances. The export end has new variables, and the short - term outlook is weak with fluctuations [2]. - Iron ore: The raw material end is weak due to expected supply policy changes, but hot metal production has room to increase. Steel mills' profits are decent, and the impetus for resumption is strong, with potential acceleration of blast furnace resumption. Global iron ore shipments have recently decreased, mainly due to disruptions in Australian shipments, and port inventories are being depleted rapidly. There is significant medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure, with expected rapid growth in iron ore shipments in the second half of the year. The short - term lacks a driving force and follows the performance of finished products, with a short - term outlook of weak fluctuations [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Overnight, the prices of coking coal and coke futures rose and then fell. Coking coal spot prices remain weak, and the eleventh round of coke price cuts has been implemented. After the Spring Festival, coking coal production has rebounded from the bottom, with potential for further increase. Downstream coking enterprises' profits are shrinking, and production is declining. Steel and coking plants have low restocking enthusiasm, and coking coal upstream inventories are at a high level in recent years. Coking enterprises' coke inventories need to be digested. Terminal steel demand is mediocre, and the post - festival growth rate of hot metal production is slow. Steel mills' profit levels are not high, and the growth rate of hot metal production is not optimistic. The key is to watch the performance of terminal demand during the peak season. In the high - inventory environment, there are still obstacles to the short - term upward price adjustment of coking coal and coke [2]. - Ferroalloys: Yesterday, the price of ferromanganese silicon futures declined weakly, while the price of ferrosilicon futures bottomed out and rebounded. Manganese ore prices are falling, and the cost support for ferromanganese silicon has weakened due to the reduction in chemical coke prices. The price of semi - coke has increased significantly, raising the cost floor of ferrosilicon. In terms of demand, terminal steel demand is mediocre, and the post - festival growth rate of finished product production is slow. Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and limited restocking enthusiasm. In terms of supply, the recent production of the two types of silicon alloys has been stable at a relatively high level. Ferromanganese silicon delivery warehouse inventories are high, and ferrosilicon manufacturers face inventory reduction pressure. The ferromanganese silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, and prices currently lack an upward driving force. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon remains loose, and prices may follow the sector's performance and be weak. Key factors are whether terminal steel demand during the traditional peak season exceeds expectations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of most futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased by 13 points (- 0.7%), the coke 05 contract decreased by 20 points (- 1.2%), the rebar 01 contract decreased by 24 points (- 0.7%), and the rebar 05 contract decreased by 11 points (- 0.3%). The prices of some contracts remained unchanged, such as the iron ore 01 contract and the power coal 01 and 05 contracts [1]. - **Ratio and Spread Changes**: Some ratios and spreads have changed. For example, the coke inter - period (1 - 5 spread) increased from 80 to 87, the coal - coke ratio (01 contract) increased from 1.49 to 1.50, and the coil - rebar spread (01 contract) increased from 124 to 141 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coke**: The spot prices of Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke remained unchanged at 1360. The ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Lu'an Coking was 2800. The Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke converted to the futures price was 1462, and the basis for the j2401 contract improved from - 255 to - 242 [1]. - **Coking coal**: The spot price of main coking coal (A10.5, S1.3, G80) in Jiexiu remained at 1080, the summary price of fat coal in Jinzhong was 1190, and the price of imported Mongolian No. 3 coking coal at Shaheyi increased from 1143 to 1148. The basis for the jm2401 contract improved from 45 to 56 [1]. - **Power coal**: The Qinhuangdao Port's power coal (Q5500) closing price remained at 675, while the Q5000 price increased from 590 to 595. The Australian FOB price (Q6000) was 92, the South African FOB price (Q6000) was 86, and the Indonesian FOB price (Q3800) decreased from 51 to 50. The CBCFI coal freight composite index decreased from 783 to 752 [1]. - **Rebar**: The national average price of HRB400 20mm rebar decreased from 3371 to 3366. The basis for the rebar futures contract worsened from - 55 to - 61 [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in various regions remained mostly stable, and the basis for the hot - rolled coil futures contract improved from - 69 to - 62 [1]. - **Iron ore**: The prices of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis for the iron ore futures contract decreased from 145 to 137 [1]. - **Ferroalloys**: The absolute price index of ferromanganese silicon remained at 5938, and the absolute price index of ferrosilicon remained at 5750. The basis for ferromanganese silicon improved from - 192 to - 138, and the basis for ferrosilicon worsened from - 252 to - 266 [1]. 3.3 Profit - Coke simulated profit decreased from 97 to - 393, the steel mill's futures profit increased from - 52 to - 50, the coking plant's futures profit increased from - 152 to - 147, and the steel product simulated profit decreased from 222 to 217 [2]. 3.4 Macro and Industry Information - Macro: On the morning of March 28, President Xi Jinping stated that China is, and will always be, an ideal, safe, and promising investment destination for foreign businesses [2]. - Industry: On March 30, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank of China announced plans to issue A - shares to specific investors, with a total planned fundraising of 520 billion yuan [2].