Group 1: Domestic Policy and Debt Management - By 2028, local governments need to reduce hidden debts from CNY 14.3 trillion to CNY 2.3 trillion, with a significant portion being converted to explicit debt[1] - The new local government debt limit is set at CNY 6 trillion, allocated over three years, with CNY 2 trillion each year from 2024 to 2026[4] - The essence of debt conversion is to change high-interest implicit debt into low-interest explicit debt, without eliminating the debt itself[5] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - Transaction volumes in first, second, and third-tier cities have all declined, with third-tier cities nearing seasonal lows for 2023[9] - The listing prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities have dropped again, while second and third-tier cities continue to see price declines[9] Group 3: Government Bonds and Market Liquidity - The National People's Congress plans to increase bond issuance this year, with an expected increase of CNY 1.4 trillion compared to last year's fourth quarter[12] - The upcoming maturity of CNY 1.45 trillion in MLF in November and December may create liquidity pressure, but monetary policy is expected to support the market[14] Group 4: U.S. Economic Outlook Post-Election - Following the U.S. election, there is potential for long positions in U.S. Treasuries as both the dollar and Treasury yields are at relatively high levels[17] - The Federal Reserve's confidence in returning inflation to the 2% target has weakened, while confidence in the labor market has strengthened[20]

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to remain in a downward phase, with consumption and government spending as the main support forces[1] - The third quarter GDP growth rate was 2.8%, with personal consumption contributing 2.46% and government spending contributing 0.85%[19] - The upcoming election results are anticipated to impact economic policies, with Trump likely to promote tax cuts that could stimulate growth[25] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic economic recovery is indicated, particularly in first-tier cities, but overall internal demand remains weak[2] - The Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8% in September to 50.1% in October, indicating a slight recovery, though demand constraints persist[8] - Fiscal space for government spending is projected to be around 2.26 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2024, derived from various debt sources[17] Group 3: Market Trends and Asset Outlook - Stock market trends suggest an upward direction, but short-term corrections may occur due to policy expectations[32] - The bond market is expected to remain strong, with a potential for fluctuations due to changing monetary policies[33] - The RMB may experience upward pressure if the US dollar strengthens, but overall, it is likely to remain in a wide fluctuation range between 6.95 and 7.3[35] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential economic downturns if domestic high-frequency data weakens unexpectedly or if the US economy performs better than anticipated[3] - The uncertainty surrounding the election results could lead to volatility in financial markets, particularly affecting commodities and currencies[28]

Group 1: Policy Expectations - The upcoming National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting is scheduled from November 4 to 8, 2024, with market expectations of a fiscal policy announcement potentially reaching a scale of 10 trillion RMB over three years[4] - Current fiscal space estimates suggest a potential increase in ordinary government bond issuance by 0.15 to 0.55 trillion RMB if the deficit ratio is raised to 3.2%-3.5%[5] - The total fiscal space for this year is projected to be around 10 trillion RMB, with significant contributions from various measures including special bonds and adjustments to local government debt limits[6] Group 2: Market Trends - The bond market is currently experiencing a cautious sentiment due to a data vacuum, with the October economic data expected to draw attention in November[11] - Despite the overall bullish trend in the bond market, short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to upcoming tax periods and increased local government bond issuance[11] - The sentiment in the stock market remains positive, contributing to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect observed in current market dynamics[11] Group 3: U.S. Election Impact - Trump has gained a lead in polls, particularly in swing states, indicating a potential shift in the political landscape that could affect market conditions[16] - The probability of Trump winning is increasing, which may influence the U.S. dollar and treasury yields to rise further[17] - Despite the current high levels of the U.S. dollar and treasury yields, a reversal is not anticipated in the near term due to strong economic data and market sentiment[17] Group 4: Currency Outlook - The RMB faces depreciation pressure amid a strong dollar and rising U.S. treasury yields, despite domestic support measures[17] - Major banks are actively providing support for the RMB in the spot market, reflecting ongoing efforts to stabilize the currency[17]

Group 1: Domestic Bond Market Insights - Current policy expectations are rising, and government bond supply is expected to peak, leading to potential risks of a market correction despite a long-term bullish outlook for bonds[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to be around 2.0%, while the 30-year yield is expected to be around 2.1%[1] - There is a phenomenon of under-allocation in institutions, indicating a potential for increased demand in the bond market despite short-term volatility[1] Group 2: Currency and Federal Reserve Analysis - The recent 50 basis point (bp) rate cut by the Federal Reserve did not lead to a significant decline in the US dollar index, but it did trigger a surge in currency settlement from exporters[1] - The RMB may continue to appreciate, although the overall extent of appreciation is not expected to be substantial[1] - The Federal Reserve's focus remains on employment and economic stability, with ongoing debates about the timing and extent of future rate cuts[1] Group 3: Economic Projections - The Federal Reserve's projections indicate a stable unemployment rate and GDP growth, with core inflation expected to decline in the coming months[1] - The long-term neutral interest rate is projected to rise, with recent estimates increasing from 2.5% to 2.9%[1] - The market anticipates a potential for further rate cuts, with discussions around a 50bp reduction remaining contentious[1]

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| --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 期货研究报告 | 降息 25bp 依然是基准情形 | | | 金融研究 | [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： | 2024 年 9 月 9 日 | | [Table_Repor ...

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 期货研究报告 | 预防式降息下美指弱势格局较难一直维持 | | 金融研究 | [Table_ ...

| --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 期货研究报告 | 当前可能是央行降息的 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------| | | | | | 期货研究报告 | 反转交易告一段落，国内债市迎冷静期 | | | 金融研究 | ...

目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款2 一、 内需走弱，信贷供给持续较低 大家可能非常关注猪周期。确实，由于前期产能收缩，生猪供给量受限，猪肉价格大幅上涨， 同比增速高达 18.1%，环比增速也上升到 11.4%。但其他畜肉类价格仍在下跌，且同比跌幅 较大。加之部分应季蔬果和水产品集中上市，鲜菜、薯类、鲜果和虾蟹类价格分别季节性下 降 7.3%、4.8%、3.8%和 2.4%，所以整体来看，食品端价格环比降幅较大。猪肉价格并不能 撑起整个食品端的 CPI，自然也撑不起整体 CPI。未来，尽管猪肉仍有可能上涨，但涨幅预 计受限。 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------- ...