Economic Outlook - The market is optimistic about China's AI sector following the rise of Deepseek, with discussions increasing significantly[1] - The upcoming Two Sessions are raising market attention, although expectations for policy changes are already high, making significant surprises unlikely[1] - Local government GDP growth targets for 2025 are set at around 5%, indicating a more pragmatic approach compared to 2024[6][7] Real Estate Market - New home sales in first, second, and third-tier cities are showing seasonal recovery, but the sustainability of this trend remains to be seen[10] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a rebound in listing price indices, but it is crucial to monitor if this trend can stabilize[10] Bond Market - After the New Year, funding rates have started to decline but remain at relatively high levels; a loosening of the funding environment is expected to lead to lower bond yields[2][18] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently around 1.6%, with expectations for potential reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions in the first quarter[2][18] U.S. Labor Market - In January, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, below the expected 170,000, but previous months' data was revised upward by 100,000[21][24] - The unemployment rate stands at 4%, slightly lower than the expected 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market despite some data volatility[26][27] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year, surpassing expectations[21][25]

Economic Outlook - The domestic economy showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024, primarily driven by policy support, with a GDP growth rate of 5.0% for the year, aligning with government targets[21] - Consumption growth is expected to rebound in 2025, with December retail sales showing a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, consistent with the average growth of 3.43% from 2022 to 2023[7] - Investment in fixed assets saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2% in December 2024, although this represents a decline of 0.1 percentage points from November[13] Real Estate Market - New home sales in first-tier cities continued to decline, while second and third-tier cities maintained relative stability, with second-tier cities still at seasonal lows[22] - Despite weaker data in second-tier cities, the overall real estate market is not expected to perform worse than in 2024, with a forecasted reduction in the drag from the real estate sector in 2025[22] - The real estate investment growth rate remains low, but the downward trend is slowing, indicating potential stabilization[18] Financial Market Conditions - Overall funding rates have significantly increased, leading to tight liquidity conditions for smaller banks and non-bank financial institutions, which has pressured the bond market[26] - The central bank's actions will be crucial in determining whether liquidity conditions improve, especially as the Lunar New Year approaches[26] - The bond market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term but presents a favorable entry point for trend trading[26] U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remains on a downward trajectory, with December CPI at 2.9% year-on-year, and core CPI at 3.2%, both aligning with market expectations[31] - The U.S. economy is still perceived to be in a downward trend, with market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 potentially underestimated[31] - The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Trump administration adds to the volatility in market expectations[31]

Economic Indicators - CPI growth rate in December was only 0.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from November, marking a four-month decline[7] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose for three consecutive months, reaching 0.4% in December[7] Real Estate Market - New home sales in first and third-tier cities are higher than in 2024, but second-tier cities hit a seasonal low[11] - Despite the weakness in second-tier cities, the overall real estate market is not expected to perform worse than in 2024, with a forecast of reduced drag in 2025[12] Bond Market - Recent regulatory measures have led to significant adjustments in the bond market, with short-term bonds experiencing larger declines[16] - The central bank's suspension of government bond purchases may lead to increased expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2025[16] U.S. Labor Market - December's non-farm payrolls added 256,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 160,000[18] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, below the anticipated 4.2%[18] Wage Growth - Average weekly wage growth remains stable, but the Employment Cost Index (ECI) and Atlanta Fed wage growth index are both trending downward, indicating potential pressure on wage growth[18]

期货研究报告 金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报 戴朝盛—宏观分析师 从业资格证号：F03118012 投资咨询证号：Z0019368 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：daichaosheng@cindasc.com 国内经济依赖政策推力，强美元已脱离基本面 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 1 月 5 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 国内经济：12 月制造业 PMI 数据中，需求好转是亮点，但亮点的背后依 然离不开政策的推动。可以想象，假如没有政策，那么这些好转怕都将转瞬 即逝。此外，市场供应充足，原材料价格延续整体下行趋势。成本下降也推 动产成品价格继续下行。走出通缩依然面临重重阻碍。 房地产高频跟踪：本周，一、二、三线城市新房销售季节性回落，总体已 连续三个月企稳。整体而言，地产销售并没有走之前的老路，尽管传导至实 物工作量还需要时间，但可以预期 2025 年地产的拖累程度会相对减轻。 国债：从市场利率与政策利率差额来看，市场或已提前计价 30bp 左右降 息幅度。目前十债 1.6%已阶段性破位，情绪面仍有向下冲的可能性 ...

Consumption - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales was 3%, a significant decline from 4.8% in October[35] - The month-on-month growth rate of retail sales in November was lower than seasonal trends, confirming the weak consumption outlook[35] Investment - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in November was 3.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from October[22] - Private fixed asset investment declined by 0.4%, continuing a negative growth trend for four consecutive months[22] - Month-on-month fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 0.10%, consistent with the average of the past five years (excluding 2020)[22] Real Estate - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of real estate sales turned positive at 3.25%, the first positive growth since 2021, although physical work volume remains poor[6] - New housing sales in first-tier cities have weakened, with sales dropping below the 2021 trend line[25] - The trend of real estate development investment shows an L-shaped bottoming pattern, indicating a prolonged recovery phase[24] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve raised its GDP and PCE inflation expectations while lowering unemployment rate forecasts, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook[9] - The market has priced in a potential interest rate cut of 20-30 basis points for the next year, despite no immediate actions from the central bank[41]

Economic Overview - The domestic economy continues to show a pattern of external strength and internal weakness, with exports remaining resilient while domestic demand indicators are weak[1] - November exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, while cumulative exports rose by 5.4%[11] - November imports saw a decline of 3.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in domestic demand[13] Financial Indicators - The M1 money supply growth rate improved from -6.1% in October to -3.7% in November, marking two consecutive months of recovery[20] - The total social financing (TSF) in November was 23,357 billion CNY, with government bonds being the primary contributor[24] Real Estate Market - New home sales have shown a notable recovery in first and third-tier cities, with first-tier city sales surpassing 2021 levels[45] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a decline in sentiment, with listing prices dropping across all city tiers[45] Bond Market - The bond market remains strong, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below 1.8% and the 30-year yield approaching 2.0%[50] - The sentiment in the bond market is bullish, driven by expectations of a moderately loose monetary policy[50] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have risen to over 90%[52] - Despite a slight increase in the U.S. CPI, the core inflation remains stable, supporting the case for a rate cut[52]

Group 1: Domestic Market Insights - New home sales in first and second-tier cities have declined, but this is considered a seasonal drop consistent with trends from 2021[8] - Third-tier cities continue to see new home sales at five-year lows, yet overall sales are still on the rise[8] - As of November 25, listing prices and volumes in first, second, and third-tier cities have all decreased, indicating a market shift towards price adjustments for volume[8] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The bond market is experiencing strong upward momentum as year-end allocation demand increases, with market sentiment remaining bullish despite recent regulatory changes[13] - Recent bond yield changes show significant declines across various maturities, with the 10-year yield dropping to 1.95%[14] - The market is closely watching upcoming central political bureau meetings, with potential policy outcomes influencing bond market performance[13] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, with labor force participation decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[26] - November's non-farm payrolls added 227,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, while previous months' figures were revised upwards by a total of 56,000 jobs[15] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased from 68% to 85% due to rising unemployment and weaker job market expectations[28] Group 4: Currency and Global Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar has shown strong performance, bolstered by the depreciation of other currencies, particularly the Canadian dollar[30] - Market expectations indicate a potential decline in the U.S. federal funds rate to around 3.5% by the end of next year[34]

Economic Data - The manufacturing PMI has risen for three consecutive months, reaching 50.3% in November, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October[9] - Despite the positive trend, over 60% of companies still report insufficient demand, indicating overall demand remains weak[9] - Non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 50%, reflecting seasonal adjustments, with construction activity showing a slight decline[11] Real Estate Market - First-tier cities continue to show strong new housing transaction volumes, while second-tier cities are rapidly approaching 2021 levels[14] - As of November 18, listing prices in first-tier cities have rebounded, while second-tier cities saw a slight decline in prices[14] - Overall, the real estate market has performed well since the new policies were implemented, with signs of improvement in second and third-tier cities[14] Bond Market - The 5-year and 10-year government bond yields have reached historical lows, driven by a broad downward trend in interest rates[19] - The central bank is expected to continue using liquidity tools to manage rates, with a target for the 10-year yield set at 2%[19] Currency and Inflation - The overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% in October, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%[23] - The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have experienced a rapid decline, influenced by traders taking profits and seasonal factors[24] - The yen is expected to appreciate gradually, contributing to downward pressure on the dollar[26]

Economic Overview - Domestic economy shows slight improvement with retail sales growth rising to 4.76% year-on-year in October, up 1.53 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Industrial value-added growth remains stable at 5.3% year-on-year in October, with cumulative growth steady at 5.8%[11] - Fixed asset investment maintains a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.4%, with real estate continuing to decline while manufacturing and infrastructure investment show recovery[18] Real Estate Market - First-tier cities' transaction area stabilizes at a five-year average level, while second-tier cities remain above historical lows[23] - The National Housing Prosperity Index has risen for six consecutive months, indicating signs of stabilization in the real estate market[18] - Second-hand housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities continue to decline, with inventory levels also decreasing, suggesting a shift towards price-based sales[23] Bond Market - The bond market experiences a narrowing of the yield spread between long and short-term bonds, with a forecasted trading range for the 10-year bond between 2.05% and 2.25%[29] - Upcoming supply shocks from bond replacements may lead to temporary increases in interest rates, but overall demand for bonds is expected to remain stable[29] U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. October CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 3.3%, aligning with market expectations[32] - The probability of a rate cut in December has increased from approximately 60% to 80%, reflecting heightened inflation expectations[32] - The potential for increased market volatility is anticipated due to the new administration's policies, which may impact inflation and interest rate strategies[36]

Group 1: Domestic Policy and Debt Management - By 2028, local governments need to reduce hidden debts from CNY 14.3 trillion to CNY 2.3 trillion, with a significant portion being converted to explicit debt[1] - The new local government debt limit is set at CNY 6 trillion, allocated over three years, with CNY 2 trillion each year from 2024 to 2026[4] - The essence of debt conversion is to change high-interest implicit debt into low-interest explicit debt, without eliminating the debt itself[5] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - Transaction volumes in first, second, and third-tier cities have all declined, with third-tier cities nearing seasonal lows for 2023[9] - The listing prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities have dropped again, while second and third-tier cities continue to see price declines[9] Group 3: Government Bonds and Market Liquidity - The National People's Congress plans to increase bond issuance this year, with an expected increase of CNY 1.4 trillion compared to last year's fourth quarter[12] - The upcoming maturity of CNY 1.45 trillion in MLF in November and December may create liquidity pressure, but monetary policy is expected to support the market[14] Group 4: U.S. Economic Outlook Post-Election - Following the U.S. election, there is potential for long positions in U.S. Treasuries as both the dollar and Treasury yields are at relatively high levels[17] - The Federal Reserve's confidence in returning inflation to the 2% target has weakened, while confidence in the labor market has strengthened[20]