-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 一季度经济数据较好，悲观预期有望扭转 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 17 日 报告内容摘要: 现货首轮提涨落地，期货偏弱。天津港准一级焦报 1440 元/吨(+0)，首轮提涨全面 落地。五月合约报 1558 元/吨(+19)。基差-8.28 元/吨(+8.5)，5-9 月差-7.5 元/吨 (+8.5)。 供需双增，供需缺口扩大。230 家独立焦企生产率报 72.99%(+0.39)，继续回升， 247 家钢厂产能利用率报 90.19%(+0.56)，铁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major sugar-producing regions (except Yunnan) have completed the sugar-cane crushing, and a recovery in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during festivals like May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but sugar output is uncertain due to weather factors. It is expected that international sugar prices will oscillate and weaken in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of sugarcane and sugar beet in China, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down. Cotton consumption has decreased by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons, and imports have also dropped by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, higher temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally favorable for cotton sowing [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - **Foreign Futures Quotes**: On April 15 - 16, 2025, the price of US sugar futures rose from $17.43 to $17.73, a 1.72% increase; the price of US cotton futures rose from $66.13 to $66.3, a 0.26% increase [3] - **Spot Prices**: From April 15 - 16, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,160 yuan to 6,130 yuan, a 0.49% decrease; in Kunming, it dropped from 6,010 yuan to 5,990 yuan, a 0.33% decrease. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a 0.31% decrease, while the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 14,200 yuan [3] - **Spreads**: There were various changes in sugar and cotton spreads from April 15 - 16, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 decreased by 0.81%, SR05 - 09 increased by 9.15%, and CF01 - 05 increased by 7.58% [3] Import and Profit - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 76.4 from April 15 - 16, 2025 [3] - **Profit Margin**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,332 from April 15 - 16, 2025 [3] Options and Volatility - **Options**: For options such as SR509C5900, SR509P5900, CF509C12800, and CF509P12800, their implied volatilities and corresponding futures historical volatilities are provided. For example, SR509C5900 has an implied volatility of 0.1072, and the historical volatility of its underlying SR509 is 10.04 [3] Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipts**: From April 15 - 16, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27,410, while the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 9,479 to 9,715, a 2.49% increase [3] Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a well - regulated and high - reputation large - scale futures company in China. It holds various memberships in major domestic futures exchanges [9]

Report on Zinc Futures 1. Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Temporarily hold [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Although there are still concerns about Sino - US trade, the market expects the US attitude to ease, and the sector sentiment has improved. Zinc ingot production resumption is underway, while the uncertainty of galvanized production growth remains high, and it may weaken in the medium term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - US President Trump is considering a temporary exemption from tariffs on imported cars and parts to give car companies more time to build production facilities in the US, but the duration is not specified [1] Mine End - In terms of TC changes, the mine end has fully loosened. The TC price in the zinc concentrate market continues to rebound, and the looseness of the mine end has increased again [1] Smelting - With high production profits of zinc concentrate enterprises, smelting profits have quickly recovered with the rebound of processing fees. Pure smelting enterprises are profitable without considering by - product profits, and integrated enterprise profits remain high. Domestic zinc concentrate smelting enterprise operating rates are likely to remain high, and smelting output is expected to be high, making the supply end fully loose. If the TC price rises to about 4,000 yuan/ton, the maximum decline space of zinc price is expected to be above 20,000 yuan/ton [2] Demand - Downstream galvanized profits are in the process of recovery, at a medium level since 2018. The consumer - end profits are acceptable and inventory is low, which may support zinc prices to some extent. However, the core contradiction of loose supply in the medium term remains unchanged, and zinc prices still face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low of 21,000 yuan/ton [2] Operation Suggestion - Wait for an opportunity to short [3] Report on Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures 1. Industry Investment Rating - Nickel - Roll short - Stainless steel - Hold [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Although there are still concerns about Sino - US trade, the market expects the US attitude to ease, and the sector sentiment has improved. As the previous price reached the cost - expected level, nickel prices rebounded in the short term. However, the fundamental surplus trend remains unchanged, and the support from the mine end is not sustainable. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the tight pressure at the mine end after the Philippines emerges from the rainy season, as well as the difference in demand strength between stainless steel and nickel due to US tariff policies [5] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - In Q1 2025, Vale's nickel production was 43,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%, mainly due to higher production after the furnace reconstruction of the Onça Puma operation area in Q1 2024 and the output increase of the VBME project in Canadian assets [4] Mine End - Indonesia plans to increase mining royalties in the second week of April, which may support the framework. The Philippines is still in the rainy season, and nickel ore prices may rise slightly, but there is no continuous upward momentum as the futures market may trade in advance for the Philippines to emerge from the rainy season [4] Smelting - China imports relatively little pure nickel, while domestic production has recovered rapidly. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month but remains at the highest level in the same period in history. The production cost of electrowon nickel has risen to 124,000 yuan/ton at the end of February. The upper pressure line can be obtained from the cost of external procurement manufacturers and the critical point of downstream nickel sulfate. The demand support provided by the cost of downstream nickel sulfate is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both lower than before [5] Demand - Stainless steel is not on the US tariff list. Under the premise that nickel is on the tariff list, the export demand for stainless steel may increase, forming a strong - weak relationship with nickel. The relatively firm price of ferronickel makes the profit of stainless steel manufacturers low, which may affect subsequent production and reduce the demand for nickel elements [5] Operation Suggestion - Take profit on previous short positions; temporarily hold [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Weak oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation with a bullish bias [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of tariff games led to an intraday decline and subsequent rebound of polysilicon. The tariff on imported goods from the US increased from 34% to 84% [1] - Industrial silicon production remains high, downstream polysilicon production stabilizes, organic silicon consumption weakens, silicon - aluminum alloy consumption remains stable, and high inventory suppresses prices. It is less affected by tariffs but may fall due to sentiment in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - Polysilicon production stabilizes at the bottom, downstream demand has improvement expectations, and inventory is in the destocking cycle. It has insufficient upward - driving factors in the short term and is expected to oscillate bullishly. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - to - long term [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Spot price: The price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon is 9900 - 10000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Production: In March, industrial silicon production climbed to 342,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons from February. The production in Sichuan and Yunnan has dropped to historical lows, while the national production increase is mainly contributed by Xinjiang. There are rumors that a large northwest factory plans to reduce production by 20 submerged arc furnaces, and some furnaces have started to cut production [2] - Cost: The current spot price has broken through the cost line, and the cost side may have limited support for silicon prices [2] Downstream Demand Side - Polysilicon: In March, the production stabilized at 96,000 tons. Under the expectation of photovoltaic supply - side reform, the production bottom has little fluctuation, and the demand for industrial silicon stabilizes [2] - Organic silicon DMC: The price is firm, monomer manufacturers start joint production cuts, production is expected to continue to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon decreases [2] - Alloy silicon: The price has been boosted, but the consumption is small and cannot support the price. The demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Inventory - The inventory pressure is large. This week's inventory increased by 6,000 tons compared with last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 600,000 tons [2] Polysilicon Supply Side - Spot price: The spot price of polysilicon remains stable, and the prices of all specifications are stable. N - type silicon material has a strong price - support intention [3] - Production: In March, the production slightly recovered to 96,000 tons. Under industry self - discipline, each factory produces according to the quota, and the production will not fluctuate greatly [3] Downstream Demand Side - Silicon wafers: The production shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding, the price has a small increase, the inventory is in the destocking cycle, and the rapid destocking supports the price [3] - Battery cells and components: The production schedule in April is good, which supports polysilicon [3] Inventory - Affected by the Spring Festival, there is a slight inventory accumulation, but it is still in the destocking cycle, and the price is prone to rise and difficult to fall [3]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 工业硅/多晶硅早报 走势评级： 工业硅：弱势震荡 多晶硅：震荡偏强 李艳婷—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03091846 投资咨询证号：Z0020513 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：liyanting@cindasc.com 徐浩然—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03120971 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：xuhaoran@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 下游需求预期走弱，多晶硅再度下调 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 16 日 报告内容摘要: ◆相关咨询：4 月 11 日，北碚西山坪光伏项目光伏组件采购中标候选人公 布，第一中标候选人为湖南红太阳新能源科技有限公司，投标报价 7920 万 元，单价 0.66 元/W；第二中标候选人为环晟光伏(江苏)有限公司，投标报 价 8400 万元，单价 0.7 元/W。本次组件招标范围为 120MWp 单晶硅双面 双玻太阳能光伏 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴西糖库存下降，原糖短期有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-16 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 [铜早报 Table_ReportType] 走势评级： 铜——波动加剧 从业资格证号：F03091846 投资咨询证号：Z0020513 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：liyanting@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20 楼 邮编：311200 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 15 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯 盘面情况： 日度变化如下：沪铜收 76310 元/吨（+1.44%），伦铜收 9220.5 美元/ 吨 （+0.40%），纽铜收 4.6325 美元/磅（+2.82%），上海电铜升贴水 0 元/吨，LME（0-3）收至 37.39 美元/ 吨，社会库存 25.05 万吨，上海期货交易所库存 8.94 万吨，库存去库趋势不变。 消息面情况： 当前市场持续反弹性的行情，反弹则有三个原因，一是美 CPI 数据超预期回落，市 场普遍押注美联储降息救市，美联储也表态可能会采取一定措施托底市场；二是特朗普突然表示 对除中国外的对等关 ...

| 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场对贸易前景观望，软商品短期震荡为主 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-15 商品研究 [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 焦炭首轮提涨部分落地，盘面偏弱运行 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 15 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1.2025 年一季度我国货物贸易进出口综指 10.3 万亿元，创历史同期新高。其中出口 6.13 万亿，同比增 6.9%，进口 4.17 万亿，同比降 6%。 焦煤： 现货暂稳，期货偏弱。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1085 元/吨(+0)，京唐港山西产主焦煤报 1380(- 0)。活跃合约报 905.5 元/吨(+13)。基差 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper - Fluctuations Intensify [1] Core View of the Report - In the short term, the fundamentals are bullish and the macro - sentiment has turned positive, leading to a rebound in Shanghai copper. However, there is a high probability that the market will trade the US economic recession again, and copper prices may fall again at any time [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Weekly changes: Shanghai copper closed at 75,230 yuan/ton (-4.60%), LME copper at 9,184 dollars/ton (-1.95%), and New York copper at 4.5055 dollars/pound (-6.03%). The Shanghai electrolytic copper premium was - 5 yuan/ton, and the LME (0 - 3) was 37.39 dollars/ton. Social inventory was 267,200 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 86,600 tons, with continuous inventory reduction [3] - Last week, copper prices experienced a roller - coaster market. The decline was due to Trump's global tariff war, and the rebound was due to factors such as the expected Fed rate cut, tariff deferral, and the weakening of the US dollar. But the market's concern about the US economic recession is deepening [3] Trading Logic - In the short term, the fundamentals are bullish and the macro - sentiment has turned positive, but there is a risk of the market trading the US economic recession again and copper prices falling [4] - The processing fee inversion is deepening, the possibility of supply reduction is increasing, and smelting production may decline in April. The consumption peak season effect remains, with copper rod and tube production at a high level and continuous inventory reduction [4] - The current macro - sentiment is temporarily positive due to possible Fed monetary policy, cooling tariff disputes, and the weakening of the US dollar. But the market's concern about the US economic recession is rising [4] Strategy Suggestion - Pay attention to the strategy of buying put options in the follow - up [5]