2024 年 9 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 1H24 业绩回顾：整体增长疲弱，创新药表现强劲 我们统计了 A 股和港股上市的 309 家医药公司上半年业绩情况，行业整体增长疲 弱，平均收入增长 2.6%，平均净利润增长 2.7%，毛利率和净利率同比基本持平。 由于医保控费的影响，企业回款周期拉长，行业平均应收天数大幅增加，平均增加 7.0 天，经营现金流同比下降 8.5%。为了更好地回报股东，多家医药公司宣布将进 行中期分红。在我们统计的 309 家医药上市公司当中，共有 65 家宣派中期股息， 占比达到 21%，多家企业首次宣布中期派息等。 创新药板块收入增长强劲。分板块来看，表现最好的是创新药（Biotech），收 入平均增长 25.3%，主要由于创新药享受较为积极的医保支付环境，以及部分创 新药企业实现了品种出海授权，获得授权收入。大部分 Biotech 企业仍处于亏损 状态。但是由于快速增长的商业化收入，多家 Biotech 企业大幅减亏甚至盈利大 幅增长。制药（Pharma）板块的业绩稳健，1H24 平均收入增长 1.6%，平均净 利润增长 7.4%。创新药 ...

2024 年 9 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 腾讯控股 (700 HK) 腾讯 2024 全球数字生态大会：AI 助力企业增长 我们于 9 月 5 日参加了 2024 年腾讯全球数字生态大会，会议要点包括：1）腾 讯云"自研+被集成"战略取得良好进展，服务客户数量超 200 万，订单超百万 的合作伙伴数量实现双位数增长，SaaS合作伙伴收入增长超 100%；2）发布混 元 Turbo 大模型，对比前代模型推理效率提升 100%、推理成本降低 20%，输出 /输入价格降至 0.05 元/0.015 元每千 tokens；3）发布腾讯云智算 AI Infra，千卡 单日故障数降至 0.16（业界平均 0.48），万卡 checkpoint 写入时长降至 1 分钟 （业界平均 10 分钟）。展望未来，腾讯云将继续坚持健康可持续增长战略，强 化自研产品能力，发挥行业+生态+区域三位一体策略，助力企业打造智能化、 融合创新、国际化三大增长引擎。基于完善的 AI 产品生态、国内领先的大模型 及算力基础设施，我们看好腾讯云持续受益于企业客户对于大模型及 AI 应用的 强劲需求，实现企业服务收入 ...

9 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update JNBY Design (3306 HK) Prudent guidance and generous dividends FY24 results were roughly inline with CMBI/BBG est.. Some investors could be concerned about the softened performance in 2H24, but this should be partially expected. The conservative tone for FY25E is not surprising and guidance should likely be achieved, thanks to further upgrades in member management and customer services, resilient GP margin and a better channel mix ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for NIO Inc. with a target price reduced from US$5.60 to US$5.10, indicating a potential upside of 5.2% from the current price of US$4.85 [2][3]. Core Insights - NIO's 2Q24 earnings were mixed, with a quarter-over-quarter rise in gross profit offset by increased R&D and SG&A expenses, leading to a net loss of RMB5.1 billion [2]. - The company is projected to see significant sales volume growth in FY25/26, with estimates of 324,000 and 400,000 units respectively, driven by new brands Onvo and Firefly [2]. - Despite the anticipated sales growth, the report expresses skepticism about NIO's ability to achieve breakeven due to high ongoing expenses related to R&D and SG&A, particularly with the introduction of new brands [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB66,730 million, with a year-over-year growth of 20.0%, and for FY25E at RMB89,501 million, reflecting a 34.1% increase [3][7]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 5.5% in FY23A to 9.7% in FY24E and further to 11.1% in FY25E [3][7]. - The net profit forecast for FY24E is a loss of RMB18,693 million, improving to a loss of RMB16,734 million in FY25E [3][7]. Earnings Revision - The report revises FY24E revenue upwards by 7.6% and FY25E revenue by 12.1% compared to previous estimates [6]. - Gross profit estimates for FY24E and FY25E have been increased significantly, reflecting a 38.6% and 30.8% rise respectively [6]. - Operating and net profit forecasts remain negative, with operating losses projected at RMB19,909 million for FY24E and RMB17,991 million for FY25E [6]. Sales Volume and Margins - NIO's sales volume for 2Q24 was reported at 57,373 units, a 143.9% increase year-over-year, although the average selling price (ASP) decreased by 18.5% [6]. - The gross profit for 2Q24 was RMB1.689 billion, marking a significant year-over-year increase of 1842.0% [6]. - The report anticipates that even with a projected sales volume of 400,000 units annually, NIO may still struggle to achieve profitability due to high costs [2][6].

6 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update NIO Inc. (NIO US) New brands unlikely to help NIO break even Maintain HOLD. We are of the view that NIO's 2Q24 earnings were mixed as the QoQ rise in gross profit was offset by the increases in R&D and SG&A expenses. We project FY25/26 sales volume to surge 54%/23% YoY to 324,000/400,000 units, respectively, contributed by the Onvo and Firefly brands. However, we believe such top-line growth with GPM expansion is still far away f ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for CPIC, with a revised target price of HK$28.3, up from HK$24.8, indicating a potential upside of 37.7% from the current price of HK$20.55 [3][5]. Core Insights - CPIC reported a robust 1H24 performance, with a net profit growth of 37.1% YoY to RMB 25.1 billion, and a nearly doubled net profit of RMB 13.3 billion in 2Q24, outperforming peers in the Chinese insurance sector [2][8]. - The life insurance segment's new business value (NBV) increased by 22.8% YoY to RMB 9.0 billion in 1H24, supported by margin expansion and a favorable product mix [2][10]. - The property and casualty (P&C) segment improved its combined ratio (CoR) by 0.8 percentage points to 97.1% in 1H24, driven by a reduction in claims ratio [2][8]. Financial Performance - Group net profit for 1H24 reached RMB 25.1 billion, with life and P&C net profits growing 43.0% and 18.6% YoY, respectively [2][8]. - Total investment income surged by 46.5% YoY, with fair value gains increasing 2.93 times in 1H24, attributed to higher allocations in FVOCI equities and FVTPL assets [2][5]. - The life insurance revenue for 1H24 was RMB 137.0 billion, reflecting a 2.2% increase YoY, while P&C insurance revenue rose by 4.2% YoY to RMB 93.1 billion [8][11]. Valuation Metrics - The report's sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation indicates a target price of HK$28.3, implying a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.48x and a price-to-book value (P/BV) of 0.89x for FY24E [5][7]. - The stock is currently trading at a P/EV of 0.31x and a P/BV of 0.64x, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to peers [5][7]. Growth Projections - The report anticipates sustained mid-to-high teen growth in FY24E NBV, driven by margin expansion and a shift towards participating policies [2][5]. - The number of core agents stabilized at 60,000 in 1H24, contributing to a 21.5% YoY increase in agency NBV [2][10]. - Management expects traditional and participating products to balance in the product mix, with first-year premiums projected to maintain growth despite recent declines [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for New Hope Services with a target price of HK$2.79, indicating a potential upside of 60.1% from the current price of HK$1.74 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's 1H24 earnings met expectations, with revenue and net profit increasing by 18% and 8% year-over-year, respectively. The gross profit margin (GPM) contracted to 32.8%, still above the industry average of over 20% [1]. - New contract value surged by 227% year-over-year in 1H24, driven by strategic resource leverage, with expectations for full-year new contract value to exceed RMB600 million [1]. - Catering services demonstrated cyclical resilience, contributing significantly to the profit of the owner value-added services (VAS) segment, which is expected to expand further [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H24 reached RMB709 million, driven by a 22% increase in managed gross floor area (GFA). Basic property management and owner VAS rose by 28% and 26% year-over-year, respectively [1][4]. - The GPM for the four segments declined due to intensified competition, but the net profit margin only declined by 1.6 percentage points to 16.7%, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase in net profit [1][4]. - The company expects managed GFA to grow by 20% in FY24E, supported by the strong new contract value [1]. Segment Analysis - Catering services revenue grew by 45% year-over-year to RMB74 million, significantly boosting overall VAS revenue by 26% year-over-year [1][4]. - The number of catering projects increased to 25, contributing a record-high of 43% to owner-VAS revenue [1]. - Accounts receivable increased to RMB496 million, primarily due to seasonal factors and new contracts, but management indicated a return to normal levels [1][4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 5.5x for 2024E, compared to a target P/E of 8x, indicating potential for valuation expansion [1][5]. - The projected net profit for FY24E is RMB235.3 million, with an EPS of RMB0.29, reflecting a 9.4% year-over-year growth [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) and identifies it as an industry favorite [4][8]. Core Insights - CPIC delivered strong performance in the first half of 2024, with net profit increasing by 37.1% year-on-year to RMB 25.1 billion, and second-quarter net profit reaching RMB 13.3 billion, reaffirming its position as an industry leader [1][11]. - The report raises the target price to HKD 28.3 from HKD 24.8, indicating a potential upside of 37.7% from the current price of HKD 20.55 [4][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Net Profit**: For 1H24, net profit was RMB 25.1 billion, up 37.1% from RMB 18.3 billion in 1H23. In 2Q24, net profit was RMB 13.3 billion, a 99.4% increase from RMB 6.7 billion in 2Q23 [1][11]. - **New Business Value (NBV)**: NBV for 1H24 grew by 22.8% year-on-year to RMB 9 billion, with a 13.5% increase in 2Q24 compared to the previous year [2][14]. - **Investment Income**: Total investment income rose by 46.5% year-on-year, with fair value gains increasing 2.93 times, supported by a shift in asset allocation towards high-yield stocks [1][3]. Business Segments Performance - **Life Insurance**: Life insurance net profit increased by 43.0% to RMB 20 billion, driven by robust underwriting and better-than-expected investment returns [1][11]. - **Property and Casualty (P&C) Insurance**: P&C net profit grew by 18.6% to RMB 4.8 billion, with a combined ratio (CoR) improvement to 97.1% [3][11]. - **Distribution Channels**: The agency channel saw a 21.5% increase in NBV, while the bank channel's NBV rose by 26.6% [2][14]. Valuation Metrics - The report's new target price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 0.4x and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.9x for FY24 [4][7]. - The expected return on equity (ROE) for FY24 is projected at 12.3% [9]. Market Position - CPIC's market share in the P&C insurance sector reached 12.3% as of June 2024, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase year-on-year [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.79, unchanged from the previous target [1][3][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 18% year-on-year for 1H24, with net profit increasing by 8%. Despite a contraction in gross margin to 32.8%, it remains significantly above the industry average of over 20% [1][2]. - The value of new contracts surged by 227% year-on-year, reaching RMB 353 million, attributed to strategic resource utilization and partnerships with state-owned enterprises [1][2]. - The resilience of the catering service segment was highlighted, with a 45% increase in revenue, contributing to a rise in the gross margin of value-added services (VAS) by 2.8 percentage points to 27.5% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H24 reached RMB 709 million, driven by a 22% year-on-year increase in managed gross floor area (GFA). Property management and owner VAS grew by 28% and 26% respectively, while commercial operations saw a 10% decline due to lost contracts [2][5]. - The gross margin decreased by 4.9 percentage points, but the net profit margin only fell by 1.6 percentage points to 16.7%, indicating effective cost management [2][6]. Business Segments - The catering service segment showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 45%, now accounting for 43% of the owner VAS, up from 37.2% in 2023 [2][6]. - The company expects the gross margin contribution from owner VAS to expand to approximately 30% by the end of 2024, despite challenging economic conditions [1][2]. Valuation - The company is currently valued at a P/E ratio of 5.5x for 2024E, with a target price based on an 8x P/E multiple, indicating potential upside [3][4][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong expansion pace and the cyclical resilience of its VAS, reinforcing the positive outlook [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao, with a target price adjusted to HK$15.94, down from HK$21.52 [2][12]. Core Insights - Haidilao's 2024 half-year performance was generally in line with expectations, showing a same-store sales growth rate of approximately 15%, despite a 10% decline in net profit due to higher-than-expected employee costs [6][17]. - The company is expected to face challenges in the second half of 2024, including macroeconomic pressures and high baseline comparisons, but potential growth could come from accelerated new store openings and efficiency improvements [1][2]. - The report highlights Haidilao's strong performance in customer service and marketing, which has contributed to its superior same-store sales recovery compared to industry averages [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at HK$47,309 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1%. Net profit is expected to be HK$4,627.2 million, reflecting a slight increase of 2.4% [3][9]. - The report anticipates a gross profit margin improvement to 60.1% by FY24E, driven by lower raw material costs and enhanced supply chain efficiency [16][17]. - The company plans to continue expanding its store count, with a focus on new brand development and operational efficiency [1][16]. Key Metrics - The report provides key financial metrics, including a projected P/E ratio of 14.6x for FY24E and a dividend yield of 6.1% [2][3]. - The same-store sales growth rate for the first half of 2024 was supported by a 27% increase in table turnover, despite a 5% decline in average spending per table [6][17]. - The report notes that Haidilao's stock is currently trading at a P/E of 15x for FY24, which is considered reasonable given the attractive dividend yield [2][12].