2025 年 3 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 预期药品集采政策优化，期待"创新药目录"落地 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 12.9%，跑输 MSCI 中国指数 7.6%。 受益于国内药品价格政策优化、国内宏观环境改善以及海外降息预期，医药行业有 望在 2025 年继续迎来估值修复。丙类医保目录年内即将落地，创新药将获得更好 的支付环境。医疗设备招标加速复苏，将推动国产医疗设备企业盈利复苏。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 百济神州 | ONC US | 买入 | 27,422.2 | 359.47 | 40% | 209 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates Thermo Fisher as "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential upside of 31.8% [2] Core Insights - The performance of C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies is showing positive trends, while clinical CRO companies are experiencing a decline in demand [1][4] - The overall revenue and profit growth for the tracked companies in 2024 remains under pressure, but half of them showed improvement in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half [6][7] - The demand outlook for 2025 varies significantly across different segments, with C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies being optimistic, while clinical CRO companies maintain a cautious stance [1][4][38] Summary by Sections Profit Recovery - Profit recovery is outpacing revenue recovery, with the median and average profit growth rates for the industry in 2024 at +2.4% and +3.5%, respectively, compared to -6.2% and -7.2% in 2023 [7][24] - The average gross margin for the tracked companies decreased from 46.4% in 2022 to 41.7% in 2024, indicating pressure from demand weakness [24][25] Demand Trends - C(D)MO companies are witnessing strong commercial production demand, with Lonza and Samsung Bio reporting significant growth in their C(D)MO revenues [38][39] - Life sciences upstream companies are benefiting from the completion of inventory destocking by downstream clients, leading to a recovery in demand [39][40] 2025 Performance Guidance - C(D)MO and life sciences upstream companies are providing improved performance guidance for 2025, while clinical CRO companies are showing a notable deterioration in their outlook [1][4][39] - Lonza expects its C(D)MO revenue growth to approach 20% in 2025, while Samsung Bio anticipates a continued growth of 20-25% [1][4] Long-term Growth Support - The global healthcare financing is stabilizing, with a 1.4% year-on-year increase in 2024, marking the first positive growth since 2021 [1][4] - Pharmaceutical companies' strong free cash flow will continue to support innovation and research and development [1][4] Market Reactions - Following the 4Q24 earnings releases, stock price reactions varied significantly across different segments, with C(D)MO and clinical pre-CRO stocks performing better than life sciences upstream and clinical CRO stocks [30][31]

市场盛传的海湖庄园协议构想主要来自白宫经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran的一篇报告。该报告提出多国 联合干预推动美元贬值、征收对等关税、发行无息"世纪债券"置换美国国债、盟友分摊全球公共品成本等政 策。联合干预汇率政策难度相对较小，可以推动美元短期快速贬值，但难以重振美国制造业，可能推升通胀预 期，打击资本流入。国债置换政策难度相对较大，对降低美债利率作用有限，可能降低美债吸引力，打击美元 国际地位，削弱美国盟友体系。相比1985年广场协议，海湖庄园协议构想面对更具对抗性的地缘政治关系和更 加复杂的经贸关系，政策目标更加多元且相互冲突，推动美元贬值、剥夺美债收益与维持美元地位相矛盾，国 债置换面临市场接受度与法律可行性挑战，关税政策面临盟友、贸易伙伴与国内零售商反对，通胀压力将限制 政策空间，该协议构想落地和实现目标的难度都明显更大。该协议构想凸显特朗普"美国优先"、贸易保护主义 和经济民族主义的世界观。如果特朗普强行推进该协议构想，那么将引发美国金融市场短期动荡，利空美元、 美债与美股，利好黄金、欧元与人民币。 广场协议的启示。1985年9月美国面对贸易逆差扩大和保护主义情绪升温，协调日本、西德、 ...

Group 1: Global Market Performance - Chinese stock market outperformed globally, with the Hang Seng Index flat and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising significantly[1] - A-shares performed better than Hong Kong stocks, led by consumer staples, materials, and financial sectors[1] - Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index for Chinese stocks rose by 2.8%[1] Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Investors are focused on the impact of housing stockpiling policies proposed in the government work report, which aims to improve housing supply-demand balance[1] - European stocks declined due to heightened risk aversion following Trump's threats to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum[1] - U.S. stock market experienced volatility, initially rising but later falling after Trump's tariff announcement, with significant selling pressure observed[1] Group 3: Financial Indicators - U.S. Treasury yields rose as inflation concerns persist, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain interest rates in the short term[2] - The dollar index fell, while the euro strengthened due to positive outlook on German defense spending agreements[2] - Copper prices increased, reflecting its correlation with global industrial economic conditions and Chinese stock market trends[2]

公司点评 零跑汽车（9863 HK，买入，目标价：50 港元）- B10 定价极具竞争力，25 年有望盈亏平衡 2025 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk B10 定价具有竞争力，零跑的自研实力或被低估：零跑的全新纯电 SUV B10 于 3 月 10 日晚开启预售，指导价为 109,800-139,800 元，其中搭载激光雷达 及城市 NOA 功能的智驾版本价格下探至 129,800 元。我们认为该定价极具竞 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,783 | -1.85 | 39.51 | | 恒生国企 | 8,725 | -2.12 | 51.25 | | 恒生科技 | 5,885 | -2.52 | 56.35 | | 上证综指 | 3,366 | -0.19 | 13.15 | | 深证综指 | 2,081 | 0 ...

2025 年 3 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 | | 收市价 | | 升/跌（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生金融 | 38,840 | -0.88 | 30.23 | | 恒生工商业 | 14,017 | 0.40 | 51.80 | | 恒生地产 | 16,316 | 0.67 | -10.98 | | 恒生公用事业 | 34,913 | 0.15 | 6.20 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | | | 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 1 周二（3 月 11 日）中国股市再次跑赢全球。恒指持平，恒生科技大涨，必选 消费、医疗保健与资讯科技板块涨幅居前，原材料、金融与电讯板块下跌。 A 股表现好于港股，必选消费、原材料与金融板块领涨。中概股大涨，纳斯 达克中国金龙指数收涨 2.8%，富时 A50期指连续夜盘小幅上涨。国债期货价 格下跌，国债收益率上升，人民币走强。投资者关注存量房收储政策效果是 否改善，因 ...

2025 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 全球经济 海湖庄园协议构想：前景与影响 对较大，但对美国金融强权收益和金融市场稳定冲击相对较小。Miran 希 望既重振美国制造业，又不严重损害美元国际地位，所以建议推动主要国 家多边政策调整。 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 2 具体政策。（1）以关税施压贸易伙伴联合干预汇率，推动美元大幅贬 值，提升美国制造与出口竞争力。（2）以关税和国债投资费（截留国债 票息）施压外国政府性债权人将持有的美国国债置换为 100 年不可交易的 无息"世纪债券"，降低美国政府偿债负担，令债权人承担更多国际货币 公共品成本。（3）美国对盟友的安全承诺（军事保护）与盟友购买"世 纪债券"挂钩，降低美国对全球安全投入，令盟友承担更多全球安全成 本。（4）指导美联储用 QE 应对可能的外国投资者抛售和国债收益率上 升，用外汇干预应对可能的美元升值。（5）将自然资源（如黄金、石 油、矿产储备、联邦土地）货币化创建主权财富基金，投资美国制造业与 基础设施。 政策难度。第（1）条政策难度中等。如果特朗普威胁的关税税率非常 高，那么可以创造出有力的交易杠杆令贸易伙伴接受联 ...

2025 年 3 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 全球经济 海湖庄园协议构想：前景与影响 市场盛传的海湖庄园协议构想主要来自白宫经济顾问委员会主席 Stephen Miran 的一篇报告1。该报告提出多国联合干预推动美元贬值、征收对等关税、发行无 息"世纪债券"置换美国国债、盟友分摊全球公共品成本等政策。联合干预汇 率政策难度相对较小，可以推动美元短期快速贬值，但难以重振美国制造业， 可能推升通胀预期，打击资本流入。国债置换政策难度相对较大，对降低美债 利率作用有限，可能降低美债吸引力，打击美元国际地位，削弱美国盟友体 系。相比 1985 年广场协议，海湖庄园协议构想面对更具对抗性的地缘政治关系 和更加复杂的经贸关系，政策目标更加多元且相互冲突，推动美元贬值、剥夺 美债收益与维持美元地位相矛盾，国债置换面临市场接受度与法律可行性挑 战，关税政策面临盟友、贸易伙伴与国内零售商反对，通胀压力将限制政策空 间，该协议构想落地和实现目标的难度都明显更大。该协议构想凸显特朗普 "美国优先"、贸易保护主义和经济民族主义的世界观。如果特朗普强行推进 该协议构想，那么将引发美国金融市场短期动荡，利 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Leap Motor (零跑汽车) with a target price of HKD 50 [1][3]. Core Insights - The pricing of the new B10 electric SUV is highly competitive, with a pre-sale price range of RMB 109,800 to 139,800, which may lead to an increase in sales forecasts for 2025 [1]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in 2025, with a projected gross margin increase and a significant rise in total revenue [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching RMB 510 billion and RMB 575 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Leap Motor's B10 model is anticipated to boost sales, with an upward revision of 25,000 units for the 2025 sales forecast, raising total sales expectations from 450,000 to 480,000 units [1]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the gross margin increased by 5.2 percentage points to 13.3%, with total revenue rising by 37% to RMB 13.5 billion, marking the first net profit of RMB 81 million [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2025 is expected to improve by 2.9 percentage points to 11.2%, driven by cost reductions from the Leap 3.5 platform [2]. Future Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 59% year-on-year, reaching RMB 510 billion, while 2026 is expected to see a net profit of RMB 1.26 billion with the launch of new models [3]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 50 based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25, aligning with the average valuation multiples of new energy vehicle manufacturers in China [3].

2025年3月11日 CMB国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Leapmotor (9863 HK) 竞争性定价 B10 在2024年第四季度实现强劲的 利润率。 Leapmotor 推出了其 B10 3月10日的EV发布，预售价范围在人民币109,800-1 39,800。具备激光雷达和城市NOA功能型号的价格低至人民币129,800。我们 认为这样的价格具有竞争力。考虑到Leapmotor利用Qualcomm 8650芯片进行 自主研发的自动驾驶，我们认为许多投资者仍然低估了Leapmotor的研发能力 。因此，我们将其在FY25E年的B系列销量上调25,000单位。我们还将其在FY2 5E年的总销量上调30,000单位至0.48mn单位。 在FY25E实现可能的盈亏平衡，得益于规模经济的扩大和强劲的2024年第 四季度利润率。 Leapmotor的2024年第四季度毛利率环比上升5.2个百分点至1 3.3%，符合其盈利预警。其2024年第四季度收入环比增长37%至人民币135亿 元，净利润为人民币8100万元，甚至强于预期。 我们之前的预测 我们预计， 凭借Leap 3.5架构在降低成本方面的帮 ...