证券研究报告/行业研究 反制美加征关税，关注农业板块投资机会 ——农林牧渔行业动态追踪 建议关注动物疫病、大宗商品价格波动和自然灾害风险。 投资要点 ➢ 加征关税落地或导致农产品价格上涨 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国白宫正式宣布实施"对等关税"政策，对中国商 品加征34%关税。作为回应，中国商务部于北京时间4月4日正式启动系统性 反制机制，对原产于美国的全部进口商品加征34%对等关税，于4月9日正式 生效。4月9日美国宣布对中国额外加征50%关税，中国国务院新闻办公室4 月9日发布了《关于中美经贸关系若干问题的中方立场》白皮书，系统阐明了 自身立场。根据中国海关总署相关数据显示，2024年农产品占中国对美进口 总额的比重约为28%，是占比最大的行业，加征关税落地将增加农产品进口 成本，短期将导致农产品价格上涨。 ➢ 中国是农产品进口大国，部分品种对美依存较高 在重要的农产品种类中，大豆是自美进口额最高的品类。大豆是主要经济作 物，主要用于食用油和动物饲料的生产，进口大豆在一定程度上缓解了国内 大豆供应的紧张局面，保障了国内市场的稳定，满足国内对植物油和蛋白质 饲料的大量需求。据商务部数据显示，2024年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" based on the expectation that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index by more than 10% within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of reciprocal tariffs on trade dynamics, particularly between the U.S. and various countries, which could influence market conditions and investment opportunities [9][12]. - It notes that China's exports to the U.S. have fluctuated, with a significant portion of total exports being directed towards the U.S. market, indicating a reliance on this trade relationship [15][19]. - The report emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing trade policies and tariffs, which could create both risks and opportunities in the industry [12][19]. Summary by Sections - **Tariff Impact**: The report details various countries' responses to U.S. tariffs, including retaliatory measures such as imposing tariffs on U.S. goods and legal actions in international trade organizations [12]. - **Export Data**: It provides statistics on China's export amounts to the U.S. over recent years, showing a decline in the percentage of total exports directed to the U.S. from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.8% in 2023 [15][17]. - **Trade Partners**: The report lists major trade partners and their respective export amounts to China, highlighting the importance of the U.S. as a key market [19].

Group 1: Institutional Research Highlights - The top twenty companies with the highest institutional research activity in the past 30 days include Weisheng Information, Zhongdali De, Anpeilong, Dazhu Laser, and Zuoli Pharmaceutical [2][11] - In the last five days, the most researched companies include Tongyizhong, Feilong Co., BYD, and Sanxin Medical [2][13] - Companies with ten or more rating agencies include Weisheng Information, Zhongdali De, Anpeilong, Dazhu Laser, Zuoli Pharmaceutical, and Jujie Microfiber [2][11] Group 2: Major Shareholder Increase - From March 31 to April 4, 2025, major shareholders of Hengtong Co., Qingtong City, and Huakai Yibai announced share increases [3][14] - A total of 80 companies announced major shareholder increases from January 1 to April 4, 2025, with 16 having ten or more rating agencies [4][16] - Notable companies for potential investment include Xinjie Energy, Wanrun Co., Xingfa Group, and Lege Co., which have significant planned increases relative to their market value [4][16] Group 3: Company Buyback Activity - From March 31 to April 4, 2025, 241 companies announced buyback progress, with 52 having ten or more rating agencies [3][18] - Companies that completed buybacks with amounts exceeding 1% of their market value include Guangdian Measurement, Zhengmei Machine, Shengquan Group, and Chuan Instrument [3][19] - From January 1 to April 4, 2025, 1,065 companies announced buyback progress, with 200 having ten or more rating agencies [4][21] Group 4: Institutional Fund Flow - During the week of March 31 to April 4, 2025, sectors such as textiles, public utilities, transportation, beauty care, and agriculture received net inflows from institutional funds [24][25] - In the past 30 days, sectors like public utilities, coal, social services, petrochemicals, and food and beverage also saw net inflows [26][27] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies with high research activity and significant expected profit growth for 2024 include ShenNan Circuit, BYD, Zuoli Pharmaceutical, Feilong Co., and Weisheng Information [27] - Companies with major shareholder increases and significant planned amounts relative to market value include Xinjie Energy, Wanrun Co., Xingfa Group, and Lege Co. [27] - Companies with substantial buyback plans and significant amounts relative to market value include Jian Sheng Group, Sanwo Biological, Guobang Pharmaceutical, and Meidi Group [27]

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Positive" for the AI industry [5] Core Insights - The first general-purpose AI agent, Manus, was launched by the Chinese startup Monica on March 6, 2025, achieving state-of-the-art performance in GAIA benchmark tests, surpassing similar products from OpenAI [1][13] - Manus utilizes a Multiple Agent architecture to efficiently handle complex tasks by breaking them down into planning, execution, and verification modules, operating in independent virtual machines [22] - DeepSeek's R1 version introduces significant algorithmic innovations that enhance reasoning capabilities while reducing computational costs, benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises in the AI industry [2][34] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in AI applications, particularly in AI voice (iFlytek), financial IT (Hang Seng Electronics), medical IT (Weining Health), and AI video/image creation (Wanjing Technology) [3][48] Summary by Sections Section 1: Launch of Manus - Manus is the world's first general-purpose AI agent capable of addressing various complex tasks, including market research, document processing, personalized travel planning, and professional data analysis [10][20] - Manus has demonstrated superior performance compared to OpenAI's Operator in various tasks, showcasing its robust tool-calling capabilities and independence in task execution [22][26] Section 2: DeepSeek's Algorithm Innovations - DeepSeek's R1 version employs a simplified reward design to optimize reasoning capabilities, significantly improving model performance with minimal labeled data [34][36] - The R1-Zero training method has shown a remarkable increase in accuracy, achieving a 71.0% success rate in the AIME competition, indicating a substantial enhancement in reasoning abilities [40][46] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring investment opportunities in AI applications, highlighting key companies such as iFlytek, Hang Seng Electronics, Weining Health, and Wanjing Technology, with projected profit growth in the coming years [3][49]

多重因素叠加或将长期推升黄金资产价格 ——黄金行业动态追踪 投资要点 ➢ 多因素推动历史金价上涨 2022 年至 2023 年，全球央行净购金数量超过 1000 吨，购金速度达到 1967 年以来最高值。此外，俄乌冲突、巴以冲突等全球地缘政治风险持续，也一 定程度上推高了黄金和原油等大宗商品所隐含的地缘政治风险溢价。2024 年叠加美联储降息预期持续等因素推动黄金价格不断创新高，年内金价涨幅 超 20%。 ➢ 美国关税政策或引发再通胀 近期，美国新任政府对"美国优先"主义的践行，提高关税等一系列措施带 来全球避险需求提升的同时，或引发再通胀从而效压低实际利率，进一步推 升黄金资产价格。亚特兰大联储的最新预测显示，美国一季度 GDP 可能萎 缩 2.8%，而高盛也将增长预期大幅下调至 0.6%。 ➢ 黄金2024年需求侧数据创新高 证券研究报告/行业研究 从需求端来看，2024 年全年黄金需求量为 4974 吨，创下历史新高。其中， 各国央行全年净购买总量达到 1045 吨，且已将连续购买黄金的时间延长至 15 年。值得注意的是，2024 年是需求量连续第三年超过 1000 吨，远远超 过 2010-2021 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Positive" for the biopharmaceutical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The aging population in China is expected to reach 310 million by 2024, accounting for 22.0% of the total population, leading to increased prevalence of chronic and degenerative diseases, thus creating significant market opportunities for the medical industry [1][7] - The number of drug pipelines in China has increased from 701 in 2014 to 6,119 in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 24%, indicating a structural upgrade in the biopharmaceutical industry and a shift towards innovation as a new driving force [2][11] - The biopharmaceutical sector has undergone deep adjustments, and there are expectations for valuation recovery due to improved competition and supportive policies for innovative drug development [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Aging Population and Policy Support - The deepening trend of population aging in China is expected to significantly increase the incidence of chronic diseases, providing greater market opportunities for the medical industry [1][7] - Favorable policies related to healthcare and pensions are being introduced, which will stimulate medical consumption and create a larger market space for innovative drugs [10] 2. Structural Upgrade in Biopharmaceutical Industry - The continuous increase in drug pipelines reflects the growing R&D investment by Chinese pharmaceutical companies, with the global share of these pipelines rising from 6% in 2014 to 27% in 2024 [2][11] 3. Valuation Recovery Opportunities - The government plans to optimize drug procurement policies, which is expected to improve the competitive environment and enhance the profitability of leading biopharmaceutical companies [3][12] - The integration of AI in biopharmaceutical R&D is anticipated to further benefit the sector, alongside a recovering capital market that supports financing for innovative drug development [3][12] 4. Key Investment Targets - **Hengrui Medicine**: Focuses on innovative drug development in oncology, surgery, endocrine therapy, cardiovascular drugs, and anti-infection drugs, expected to benefit from the upward trend in the innovative drug sector [16] - **WuXi AppTec**: A leading global platform for pharmaceutical and medical device R&D, providing comprehensive services from drug discovery to commercialization [17] - **Enhua Pharmaceutical**: Specializes in central nervous system drugs, with a focus on anesthetics, psychiatric, and neurological drugs, benefiting from the expanding innovative drug market [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - eVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) aircraft have significant performance advantages, including vertical takeoff and landing capabilities, distributed electric propulsion, and the use of all-electric or hybrid power technologies. Compared to conventional helicopters, eVTOLs are more environmentally friendly, quieter, and have higher automation levels, resulting in lower operating costs and higher safety and reliability [1][10] - The central government's strategic focus on low-altitude economy, including the establishment of a dedicated low-altitude economic department, is expected to accelerate the certification and commercialization of eVTOLs. Recent developments include the issuance of the world's first type certificate, airworthiness certificate, and production certificate to EHang Intelligent, marking a significant milestone in the eVTOL industry [2][35] - The eVTOL market is projected to reach a scale of 107.91 billion yuan by 2030, with various application scenarios such as tourism, urban air mobility, emergency rescue, and firefighting contributing to this growth [3][47] Summary by Sections Section 1: eVTOL Development and Commercialization - eVTOLs are positioned as core vehicles for low-altitude development, with a strong potential for commercialization driven by technological advancements and supportive policies [8][32] - The eVTOL industry is characterized by diverse aircraft types and configurations, with composite wings and tilt-rotor designs being the main development lines [22][25] - The core subsystems of eVTOLs include airframe, avionics, flight control, energy, propulsion, and electrical systems, with battery and propulsion systems accounting for approximately 50% of the total cost [28][29] Section 2: Market Opportunities and Applications - eVTOLs can be categorized into surveillance, cargo, and passenger aircraft, each with distinct requirements for development, manufacturing, and certification [40] - The market space for eVTOLs is vast, with significant potential in passenger transport (urban air mobility, regional air transport) and cargo delivery, although the latter is expected to be limited primarily to industrial-grade drones [46][47] - The projected market size for eVTOLs by 2030 includes segments such as tourism (7.2 billion yuan), urban air mobility (70.4 billion yuan), emergency rescue (9.56 billion yuan), and firefighting (20.75 billion yuan) [47][48] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include: 1. WanFeng Aviation: A global leader in general aviation aircraft, with promising eVTOL developments 2. Wolong Electric: A domestic leader in electric motors, actively advancing eVTOL product development 3. Inboard: Focused on new energy vehicle power systems, starting with collaboration with EHang Intelligent 4. Zongshen Power: A leading private enterprise in small to medium-sized aviation power systems 5. CATL: A global leader in battery manufacturing, with solid-state batteries expected to set benchmarks for aviation-grade products [51]

Investment Rating - The report rates the copper industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The proposed 25% tariff on copper by the U.S. is expected to increase corporate inventory demand, leading to a short-term boost in copper prices. As of March 27, 2025, LME 3-month copper futures were priced at $9,846 per ton, with the spot price at $9,787 per ton, indicating a narrowing gap between futures and spot prices [1][8] - There is a persistent tight supply of refined copper globally, with a notable deficit in 2023. Although some improvement is expected by February 2024, the market is anticipated to return to a state of supply shortage by September 2024, which will support higher copper prices [2][10] - The rise of AI and advancements in computing power are driving increased demand for copper, particularly in data centers and 5G infrastructure. The global demand for copper used in PCBs reached 580,000 tons in 2023, with projections indicating that this could exceed one million tons by 2025 [3][13] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Impact and Demand - The U.S. is considering a 25% tariff on copper, which has led to increased inventory accumulation by companies due to concerns over future price hikes. This is expected to support short-term demand for copper [1][8] Section 2: Supply Constraints - Global refined copper supply has been tight, with a deficit observed in most months of 2023. The situation is expected to improve slightly in early 2024, but a return to supply shortages is anticipated later in the year [2][10] Section 3: Demand Expansion through AI - The development of generative AI and enhanced computing capabilities is creating new opportunities in the computing sector, leading to increased demand for various copper products. The demand for copper in PCBs is projected to grow significantly, driven by investments in computing infrastructure [3][13] Section 4: Key Investment Targets - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a key player due to its substantial mineral reserves and advanced technology in copper and gold mining. The company operates extensively in China and internationally [16] - Jiangxi Copper is noted as the largest copper producer in China, benefiting from its integrated operations across the entire copper supply chain, which positions it well to capitalize on rising copper prices [17]

Investment Strategy Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a stable recovery in the profitability of industrial enterprises, supported by recent macroeconomic policies and adjustments in monetary policy, particularly the shift to a multi-price bidding method for MLF operations [2][3][4]. News and Commentary - The People's Bank of China announced a new MLF operation method to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a planned operation of 450 billion yuan for a one-year term [2][12]. - The Ministry of Finance's report emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025, including increased fiscal deficit rates and larger government bond issuance to support growth and structural adjustments [2][13]. - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that profits of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 910.99 billion yuan in January-February, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, but the decline is narrowing compared to the previous year [3][17]. Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight increase of 0.2%. The pharmaceutical and biological sector led the gains with a 1.0% increase [4][25][28]. - The adjustment of MLF operations signals a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, benefiting the bond market and potentially improving the performance of cyclical stocks [4][34]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on investment opportunities driven by policy and industrial trends, particularly in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, humanoid robots, aerospace, and deep-sea technology [5][34]. - Consider sectors benefiting from increased domestic demand, including food and beverage, home appliances, and automotive industries [5][34]. - Pay attention to industries that may benefit from large-scale debt issuance, particularly companies with government contracts and the infrastructure supply chain [5][34]. - Monitor investment opportunities related to state-owned enterprise market value management [5][34]. - Long-term investment in gold is recommended due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [5][34].

Group 1: A-share Buyback Policy - The A-share buyback policy has evolved through three stages: "comprehensive prohibition," "limited relaxation," and "flexible incentives" since 1993. The buyback scale has significantly increased since 2018, with a historical high of 165.63 billion yuan in 2024 [1][19][20]. Group 2: Current Status of A-share Buybacks - The number of actively repurchasing companies in 2024 reached 1,216, surpassing the number of passively repurchasing companies. The active buybacks have increased from 387 companies in 2021 to 616 in 2023 [2][24][27]. Group 3: Impact of Buybacks on Company Valuation - Historical buyback waves have occurred at market bottoms, providing a stabilizing effect on market value. An analysis of 10,633 buyback events from 2018 to March 2025 shows positive absolute and relative returns post-announcement, with average returns of 1.84% and 1.17% after 30 days, and 3.74% and 1.94% after 90 days [3][31][34]. - Long-term returns are significant, with average absolute returns of 12.85% and 21.70% after one and two years post-completion, respectively [3][37]. - Active buybacks yield higher excess returns compared to passive buybacks, with an average excess return of 4.36% for other purposes, 2.82% for equity incentives, and 3.01% for market value management after 90 days [3][42]. - The buyback ratio is positively correlated with excess returns, with companies repurchasing more than 5% of their shares achieving an average excess return of 19.27% from the announcement to completion [3][42][47]. Group 4: Buyback Purposes and Methods - The buyback purposes have diversified, with significant increases in market value management and profit compensation since 2018. The buyback methods include centralized bidding, block trading, tender offers, and agreement transfers, each with distinct operational processes and market impacts [19][21][22][24][47]. - The buyback process involves five stages: internal decision-making, regulatory reporting, implementation, information disclosure, and share handling [17][18]. Group 5: Valuation Perspectives - The buyback announcement can reflect both "stronger strength" and "valuation recovery" logic, with lower valuation companies showing higher excess returns post-announcement compared to higher valuation companies [47].