Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" [1][2][8] Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 38.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.153 billion yuan, up 18.6% year-on-year. The beer business revenue was 36.865 billion yuan, with a total beer sales volume of 11.151 million kiloliters, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year. The high-end product sales volume increased by 18.9% to 2.5 million kiloliters, with Heineken sales growing nearly 60% [1][4][5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a total revenue of 38.932 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.153 billion yuan. The beer business contributed 36.865 billion yuan in revenue, with a total sales volume of 11.151 million kiloliters. The high-end product sales volume increased by 18.9% to 2.5 million kiloliters, while Heineken sales volume exceeded 600,000 kiloliters, growing nearly 60% year-on-year [1][4][5] Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for the company was 41.4%, with the beer business gross margin at 40.2%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. Cost pressures eased significantly compared to 2022, primarily due to a decline in packaging costs. The effective tax rate returned to 26.3%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, which limited the net profit margin increase to 13.2%, up 0.92 percentage points year-on-year [1][5][6] Business Strategy and Outlook - The company will continue to focus on high-end products such as Heineken, Pure Draft, and SuperX, with plans for nationwide expansion in 2024. The white wine business is expected to gain momentum with new product launches, following significant inventory clearance and price stabilization efforts in 2023 [1][6][7][8] Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its earnings forecast, expecting total revenue of 41.538 billion yuan in 2024, 44.183 billion yuan in 2025, and 46.926 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.7%, 6.4%, and 6.2% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.027 billion yuan in 2024, 6.996 billion yuan in 2025, and 8.101 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 17.0%, 16.1%, and 15.8% [1][3][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with a special dividend announced. The beer business continues to upgrade its structure, while the liquor business is gradually stabilizing. The current stock price corresponds to a 2024 PE of 19X, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 38.932 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.153 billion RMB, up 19% year-on-year, and core EBIT was 7.102 billion RMB, reflecting a 30% increase [4][5]. - The beer business saw a revenue growth of 5%, with core EBIT increasing by 28% and after-tax profit growth of 5%. The liquor business contributed a revenue of 2.067 billion RMB and a net profit of 130 million RMB [4]. Business Segments - The beer business's sales volume increased by 0.5% in 2023, with a price per ton rising by 4%. In the second half of 2023, the price per ton increased by 2.8%. The company aims for a sales volume of 3-3.5 million kiloliters for premium products by 2025 [4]. - The liquor business is expected to see double-digit growth in both revenue and profit in 2024 [4]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 41.4%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year. The beer business's gross margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 40.2% [4]. - The beer business's cost per ton rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with a 4.1% increase in the second half of 2023. Cost pressures are expected to ease in 2024, leading to further improvements in gross margin [4].

[Table_Page] 公告点评|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 [华Table_润Title] 啤酒(00291.HK/00291.HK) 公[Ta司ble_评Inve级st] 买入 当前价格 37.20港元 业绩符合预期，期待啤白新发展 合理价值 40.0港元 前次评级 买入 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ： 报告日期 2024-03-19 ⚫ 全年如期收官，业绩符合预期。公司2023年实现营收同比+10.4%至 相[Ta对ble市_Pi场cQu表ote现] 389.3亿元，归母净利润同比+18.6%至51.5亿元，符合预期。 ⚫ 量价符合预期，高端化持续推进。2023 年公司啤酒业务营收同比 10% +4.5%至368.7亿元，其中销量/ASP分别同比+0.5%/4.0%至1115万 -3% 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 01/24 千升/3306.0 元/千升，次高及以上产品销量同比+18.9%至 250 万千 -15% 升，占比提升3.5pct至18.9%，其中喜力销量同比增长近60%。23H2 -27% 公司销量/ASP分别同比-4.6%/+2.8 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" with a target price of 48 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of 37.95 HKD [3][9]. Core Insights - In 2023, China Resources Beer reported a revenue of 38.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit of 5.1 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The sales volume reached 11.15 million kiloliters, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with premium and above products showing significant growth, particularly Heineken, which saw a growth rate exceeding 60% [1]. - The company has successfully entered the liquor market through the acquisition of a 55.2% stake in Jinsha Liquor, generating 2.06 billion RMB in revenue from this segment in 2023 [1]. - A special dividend of 0.3 RMB per share was declared, with an expected total dividend payout of 0.936 RMB per share for the year, resulting in a payout ratio of 59% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2023 revenue: 38.9 billion RMB, 10% growth - 2023 net profit: 5.1 billion RMB, 18% growth - Gross margin: 41.4%, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year - Net margin: 13.4%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast: - 2024 EPS: 1.91 HKD - 2025 EPS: 2.10 HKD - 2026 EPS: 2.23 HKD [1][8]. - Valuation Metrics: - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is projected at 19x for 2024, while China Resources Beer is assigned a P/E of 25x, leading to a target price of 48 HKD [9][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end products, with plans to enhance its presence in the premium market segment, particularly targeting products priced above 10 RMB [1]. - The integration of the liquor business is expected to provide additional growth opportunities, with a focus on regions with high penetration rates for sauce liquor [1]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include China Resources Group with 31.1% and Heineken Group with 20.8% [5]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a relative return of 17.47% over the past month and 12.47% over the past three months, although it has declined by 23.45% over the past year [7].

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 华润啤酒：啤酒决胜高端，白酒积极探索 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年03月20日 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_Summary] 事件：公司发布2023年业绩，实现营业收入389.32亿元，同比+10.4%， [T华ab润le_啤St酒ock(0A2n9dR1a.HnkK]) 股东应占溢利51.53亿元，同比+18.6%。 投资评级 买入 点评： 上次评级 买入  啤酒吨酒收入稳提升，喜力高增至60万吨。2023H2华润啤酒实现营 业收入139.71亿元，同比-2.0%；其中销量458万千升，同比-4.6%， [T马ab铮le_食Au品th饮or料] 首席分析师 我们认为主要同期基数较高所致。从产品结构来看，在消费环境较为疲 执业编号：S1500520110001 软的情况下，公司高端化稳步推进，2023H2千升酒收入同比+2.8%， 邮 箱：mazheng@cindasc.com 次高端及以上销量同比+10.0%至105.6万吨。全年来看，受益于喜力 双位数增长至60万吨、雪花纯生和老雪等产品双位数增长， ...

[Ta华ble润_St啤ock酒Nam（eR 0p 0tT 2yp 9e 1] ） 公司研究/港股点评 啤酒稳步高端化，白酒进入增长期 ——华润啤酒 23 年报点评 投资评级：买入（维持） 主要观点： [Table_Rank] 报告日期： 2024-03-19 [⚫T ab公le_司S发um布m2a0ry2]3 年业绩： ➢ 23H2：收入150.6亿（+6%），归母5.0亿（-7%）。 [收Ta盘bl价e_（Ba港se元D）at a] 37.95 ➢ 23年：收入389.3亿（+10%），归母51.5亿（+19%）。 近12个月最高/最低（港元） 63.92/28.15 ➢ 收入、利润基本符合市场预期。 总股本（百万股） 3,244 ➢ 此外特别派息0.3元/股，为庆祝30周年，23年派息0.936元/股， 流通股本（百万股） 3,244 分红比例从40%提至59%。 流通股比例（%） 100.00 总市值（亿港元） 1,231 ⚫ 啤酒业务：稳步推进高端化 流通市值（亿港元） 1,231 ➢ 23年收入368.7亿，同比+4.5%，销量1115万吨，同比+0.5%，吨 [公Ta司ble价_C格ha与rt] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer with a target price of HKD 47.0, representing a potential upside of 23.8% from the current price of HKD 38.0 [8][23]. Core Insights - China Resources Beer is positioned as one of the strongest players in the high-end beer market, supported by a robust product matrix and channel operation capabilities. The management's deep understanding of the liquor market enhances confidence in future growth, particularly in the white liquor segment [7][18]. - The company is expected to continue its revenue structure's high-end transformation, with significant growth in premium products like Heineken and Pure Draft, which saw sales growth of nearly 60% and high double-digit growth, respectively, in 2023 [7][18]. - The beer business is projected to experience strong margin expansion due to the rapid growth of high-end products, effective pricing management, and a decrease in production costs [7][18]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 41,575 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [12][20]. - Core net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 6,259 million in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 19.0% [12][20]. - The report predicts a gross margin of 43.5% for 2024, up from 41.4% in 2023, indicating a continued focus on high-margin products [12][20]. Business Segments - The beer segment is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with a target of 270-290 million tons in sales for premium and above products in 2024 [7][18]. - The white liquor segment, while still in its early stages, is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's long-term growth through a diversified product portfolio and strict pricing controls [7][18]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, applying a 15x EV/EBITDA multiple for the beer business and a 12x P/E multiple for the white liquor business, leading to a target price of HKD 47.0 [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291.HK) with a target price of HKD 53.0, compared to the current price of HKD 37.95 [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 38.93 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. Core EBIT reached HKD 7.1 billion, up 30%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.15 billion, an 18.6% increase. The core net profit was HKD 5.26 billion, reflecting a 16.3% growth [1]. - The report highlights the solid progress in premiumization and a notable special dividend, with a payout of HKD 0.3 per share, raising the total dividend for the year to HKD 0.936 per share, increasing the payout ratio from 41% in 2022 to 59% in 2023 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H2 2023, revenue increased by 5.7% to HKD 15.06 billion, while core EBIT surged by 152% to HKD 760 million. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7% to HKD 504 million, and core net profit fell by 25% to HKD 540 million [1]. - The beer business generated revenue of HKD 139.7 billion in H2 2023, a decline of 2%, with sales volume down 4.6% due to adverse weather and weak consumer spending. The average price per ton increased by 2.8% [1]. Business Segments - The report notes that the premium segment, particularly Heineken and Pure Draft, saw significant growth, with sales volumes in the above 10 HKD price range increasing by nearly 60% to 600,000 tons [1]. - The white liquor segment showed positive results with revenue of approximately HKD 2.07 billion, where the flagship product accounted for 70% of revenue, growing over 20% [1]. Future Outlook - For 2024, the company aims for steady growth in the beer segment, focusing on quality upgrades in mid-range products and further premiumization. The white liquor business is expected to accelerate revenue growth as new products gain traction [1]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 to HKD 1.91, HKD 2.22, and HKD 2.51 respectively, reflecting a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18, 16, and 14 times [1].

申万宏源研究 上海市南京东路99号 | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 简单金融 成就梦想 食品饮料 | 公司研究 外部承压不改结构升级趋势 白酒期待整合收效 2024年3月18日 华润啤酒 (0291:HK) 买入 事件：公司发布 2023 年业绩，根据公司公告，2023 年公司实现营业额 389.32 亿元，同比增长 10%，归属于公司股东利润为51.5亿元，同比增长19%。23H2公司实现营业额150.6亿元，同 比增长6%，归属于公司股东利润为5亿元，同比下降7%。公司公告2023年派息率59%，其中 维持 包括23年中期分红每股0.287元，末期分红每股0.349元，特别分红每股0.3元人民币。公司业 绩符合预期。 市场数据：2024年3月18日 投资评级与估值：考虑到啤酒结构升级进入中后程，且终端需求复苏需要时间，行业竞争存在加剧 收盘价（港币） 37.95 风险，下调 2024~2025 年盈利预测，新增 2026年盈利预测，预测 2024-2026年公司归母净利 恒生中国企业指数 5,848.15 润为63.35/74.74/86.59亿，（前次202 ...

业绩简评 3月 18 日，公司公告，23 年营业收入389.32 亿元，同比+10.4%； 归母净利51.53 亿元，同比+18.6%，业绩符合预期。 经营分析 啤酒业务：喜力高增，ASP态势良好，吨成本H2 承压。 23 年啤酒量+0.5%，ASP 同比+4.0%；营业收入同比+4.5%。次高及 以上销量250 万吨（占比+3.5pct 至 22.4%），同比+19%（喜力+60% 至 60万吨）。预计全年纯生+16%突破 80万吨、老雪翻倍、勇闯和 SX 中低个位数增长。H2 销量同比-4.6%、吨价同比+2.8%、收入同 比-2.0%；次高及以上销量同比+10%（占比+3.1pct），主要系 Q3 天 气、消费力疲弱拖累，Q4 量价保持增长。 23 年吨成本同比+1.1%，毛利率同比+1.7pct 至 40.2%，H2 吨成本 同比+4%，系销量下滑导致规模效应减弱，叠加结构优化导致成本 港币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 自然上行。23 年销售费率同比+0.1pct,行政及其他费率同比- 70.00 1,200 1.4pct(剔除一次性费用后同比-1.2pct)，系紧日子政策成效显 63.00 1,000 ...