智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予微博-SW(09898)"优于大市"评级，目标价每 股107港元，主要考虑到微博用户及时长基本盘已稳固，平台已进入稳态发展阶段，增速趋于平稳，相 较其他可比互联网公司处于低位。 微博是中国领先的社交媒体平台，在社交媒体平台中具有独特的地位(庞大的用户群，充足的社交关系 资源，实时的、裂变式的信息传播模式，丰富的营销资源和名人效应),能品效合一营销解决方案效率 高，是企业不可或缺的广告购买渠道。另外，该行认为生成式AI技术在微博内容创作、精准投放及热 点发现等场景的应用，未来将进一步提升平台变现效率。 3Q25业绩喜忧参半 总营收4.4亿美元(同比下降5%/环比下降1%)，与10月下旬被下调后的彭博一致预期持平。在线广告收入 按美元计同比下降6%，人民币口径同比下降5%;增值服务收入6,690万美元，同比增加2%。调整后净利 润1.1亿美元，超预期3%，调整后净利率比彭博一致预期高1个百分点;调整后营业利润率为30%，环比/ 同比均下滑6个百分点。 Q4广告温和复苏，2026年收入可见性目前较低，但不改其营销的独特性 三季度电商、汽车板块表现韧性，游戏、3C ...

海通国际发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予微博-SW(09898)"优于大市"评级，目标价每股107港元，主要考 虑到微博用户及时长基本盘已稳固，平台已进入稳态发展阶段，增速趋于平稳，相较其他可比互联网公 司处于低位。 海通国际主要观点如下： 公司背景 微博是中国领先的社交媒体平台，在社交媒体平台中具有独特的地位(庞大的用户群，充足的社交关系 资源，实时的、裂变式的信息传播模式，丰富的营销资源和名人效应),能品效合一营销解决方案效率 高，是企业不可或缺的广告购买渠道。另外，该行认为生成式AI技术在微博内容创作、精准投放及热 点发现等场景的应用，未来将进一步提升平台变现效率。 三季度电商、汽车板块表现韧性，游戏、3C等板块因预算收缩同比出现下滑趋势，食品饮料、鞋服则 受高基数拖累。四季度受益于"双十一"及电商平台竞争加剧，预计电商广告将为其提供一定支撑;但游 戏、手机、明星代言、美妆等品类同比回暖尚待观察。明年即便有冬奥会、世界杯及电商持续内卷等积 极因素，但汽车国补退坡或拖累增长。该行预测Q4广告收入4.4亿美元(同比下降3%)，2026年全年收入 为17.2亿美元(同比下滑2%)。 社区活跃度在变现低谷中继续夯实 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International initiates coverage on Huazhu Group-S (01179) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 41, highlighting its leadership in China's hotel chain market and benefits from increasing chain rate [1] Group 1: Market Position and Growth - Huazhu Group is the leader in the Chinese hotel chain market, benefiting from an increase in the chain rate, with its room nights ranking in the top tier [1] - The company has opened over 2,300 new hotels this year, with a strong focus on mid-to-high-end brands, which have grown by 25% year-on-year, surpassing the overall growth rate of 7% [3] - The management is confident in opening over 2,300 hotels this year and aims for a total of 12,814 hotels by 2025, with a long-term goal of 20,000 hotels by 2030, targeting a 15% market share [3] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - The company is transitioning to a high-margin, light-asset franchise model, closing low-quality stores, which is expected to enhance profitability [1] - The adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 3.3 percentage points to 36% in Q3, with Legacy-HZ's margin rising to 43%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5] - The forecast for adjusted EBITDA is RMB 7.94 billion and RMB 9.13 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expected margin improvements of 5 and 3 percentage points [5] Group 3: Membership and Customer Engagement - Huazhu operates the largest and most resilient membership system in the industry, with over 300 million members and an average of 190 million daily active users on its app [4] - Membership numbers grew by 17.1% year-on-year to 301 million, with member room nights booked increasing by 19.7%, accounting for 74% of total room nights sold [4] - Strengthening membership operations is expected to empower franchisees and enhance future monetization opportunities for the company [4] Group 4: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The supply-demand situation in the hotel industry continues to improve, with 396,500 new hotels (15 rooms or more) opened in October, a 7% year-on-year increase [2] - Domestic holiday travel shows a sustained increase in cross-regional movement, with approximately 2.142 billion trips during the first seven days of the National Day holiday in 2025, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [2] - The fourth quarter is expected to maintain resilience in leisure tourism, although business travel remains weak, with a projected 0.5% year-on-year increase in single-room revenue for Legacy-HZ [2]

智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予华住集团-S(01179)"优于大市"评级，对应目 标价41港元。华住集团是中国连锁酒店市场领导者，受益于酒店行业连锁化率提升，公司间夜量排名稳 居第一梯队。公司采取多品牌矩阵+会员体系的商业模式，以高效的团队执行力，持续有市占率提升。 其次，中端酒店占比大，韧性强，中高端酒店比例提升，进一步助力整体Revpar提升。多品牌多层次有 助于向差异化商圈和用户布局。同时公司向高利润率、轻资产特性的特许经营模式转型，关闭低质量门 店，未来利润率有望持续提高。 海通国际主要观点如下： 第三季度，公司新开业酒店750家，储备酒店达2748家。其中，中高端酒店数量同比增长25%，超过了 整体7%的增长率。管理层对全年开业超过2300家酒店充满信心。管理层将继续升级其现有酒店矩阵， 并对新酒店开业采取更严格的标准。该行预测第四季度将净增234家酒店，到2025年总酒店数将达到 12,814家;从中长期看，公司坚定推进2030年2万家店的发展目标，期望15%的市占率。 会员体系与持续赋能 华住运营着全球贡献度最高的会员体系及业内规模最大、韧性最强的供应链，会员总数超3亿， ...

海通国际又指，公司已宣布三年股东回报计划，派息率不低于50%。以2025财年净利润3.72亿美元及当 前市值计算，对应回报率约2.7%，体现了管理层对盈利的持续承诺与信心。 海通国际表示，集团在今年8月底止2026财年第一季经调整经营利润率，同比提升1个百分点，主要由东 方甄选贡献。但11月底止第二财季，公司将放缓教学中心扩张、提升存量利用率并全线提效，叠加去年 低基数，该行预计集团2026财年第二季度利润率再扩2个百分点，但明年5月底止下半财年因留学不确定 及K9竞争，环比取保守态度，预计同比改善0.3至0.5个百分点。全年度经调整经营利润预计6.5亿美元， 对应利润率12.1%。 智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，首次覆盖新东方-S(09901)，认为该公司在包括K12及海外业 务在内的各个细分领域均处于领先地位; 除此之外，公司生成式AI在课件自动生成、名师数字分身及作 业批改等场景的落地，将同步提升转化效率和内容质量，帮助公司提效以及业务聚焦。海通国际给予 2026财年18倍市盈率，予新东方H股目标价49港元，首次覆盖予"优于大市"评级。 ...

集团在今年8月底止2026财年第一季经调整经营利润率按年提升1个百分点，主要由东方甄选贡献。但11 月底止第二财季，公司将放缓教学中心扩张、提升存量利用率并全线提效，叠加去年低基数，该行预计 集团2026财年第二季度利润率再扩2个百分点，但明年5月底止下半财年因留学不确定及K9竞争，环比 取保守态度，预计按年改善0.3至0.5个百分点。全年度经调整经营利润预计6.5亿美元，对应利润率 12.1%。 海通国际发表研报指，首次覆盖新东方，予其H股目标价49港元及"优于大市"评级，认为该公司在包括 K12及海外业务在内的各个细分领域均处于领先地位；除此之外，公司生成式AI在课件自动生成、名师 数字分身及作业批改等场景的落地，将同步提升转化效率和内容质量，帮助公司提效以及业务聚焦。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that Li Auto's recent sales have been under pressure due to factors such as the MEGA recall and the switch of battery suppliers for the i6 model, leading to a conservative sales guidance for Q4 and a downward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 14%, 28%, and 33% respectively [1] - Li Auto's Q3 2025 revenue was reported at 27.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 36%, with vehicle sales revenue at 25.9 billion RMB, down 37% due to weaker quarterly deliveries [1] - The company reported a Non-GAAP net loss of 360 million RMB, with a potential gross margin of 20.4% if excluding the impact of the MEGA recall, indicating operational resilience despite the non-recurring nature of the recall event [1] Group 2 - Li Auto has initiated deliveries of the i6/i8 pure electric models, creating a complementary effect in the mainstream and high-end family electric vehicle market, which provides a more stable growth foundation for its electric vehicle business [2] - The i-series has seen a significant increase in penetration in key domestic regions, with a rapid increase in orders in September [2] - To address supply chain constraints, the company will introduce a dual battery supply system from CATL and Xinwangda starting in November, with expectations to increase the i6's monthly production capacity to 20,000 units by early next year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto's recent sales have been under pressure due to factors such as the MEGA recall and the switch in battery suppliers, leading to a conservative sales guidance for Q4 and a downward revision of revenue expectations for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Li Auto's Q3 2025 revenue was 27.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 36% [1] - Automotive sales revenue was 25.9 billion RMB, down 37% year-on-year, primarily due to weaker quarterly deliveries [1] - Non-GAAP net loss was 360 million RMB, turning to a loss both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter; however, if excluding the MEGA recall event, the gross margin could reach 20.4% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 111.6 billion, 122 billion, and 136.8 billion RMB, respectively, representing downward adjustments of 14%, 28%, and 33% [1] - The target price for Li Auto is set at 81.34 HKD, based on a 1.3x price-to-sales ratio for 2026, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] Group 3: Product Development and Market Strategy - Li Auto has initiated deliveries of the i6/i8 pure electric models, creating a complementary effect in the mainstream and high-end family electric vehicle market, providing a more stable growth foundation for its electric vehicle business [2] - The i-series has seen a significant increase in penetration in core domestic regions, with rapid order growth in September [2] - To address supply chain constraints, the company will introduce a dual-supplier system for the i6 starting in November, with plans to enhance monthly production capacity to 20,000 units by early next year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overseas CXO industry has shown resilience under macroeconomic pressure, with overall sentiment stabilizing after hitting a bottom, suggesting a recovery in the domestic CXO sector as macro indicators like interest rates and financing improve [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The overseas CXO industry has confirmed its bottom and is showing a structural recovery trend, with significant differentiation in recovery across sectors [2] - Clinical CROs, represented by companies like IQVIA and Medpace, are leading the recovery due to strong orders and forward guidance [2] - CDMOs, exemplified by Lonza, demonstrate resilience through long-term contracts, while preclinical CROs and research services are still in a bottoming phase [2] Group 2: Clinical CRO Insights - IQVIA shows positive data with a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.15 and a 20% year-on-year increase in RFP flow, with cancellations returning to a normalized $2.2 billion from over $3 billion [3] - Medpace exhibits the strongest performance with a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.20 and a pre-backlog exceeding $3 billion, indicating high revenue visibility for 2026 [3] - ICON is experiencing demand recovery, but short-term performance is affected by project execution volatility, with a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.02 due to $900 million in project cancellations [3] Group 3: CDMO Insights - Lonza maintains stable performance with strategic long-term contracts and a structure that provides immunity to biotech financing fluctuations [4] - Samsung Biologics keeps its revenue growth guidance unchanged at approximately 25%-30%, with total contract amounts exceeding $20 billion, showcasing strong order reserves [4] - Syngene faces short-term profitability pressure but is entering a critical phase of capacity upgrades and order increases with new global clinical orders [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies with global competitive advantages in the CXO sector include WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, and others [4] - Focus on innovative drug industry chain companies with improving profitability, such as Haoyuan Pharmaceutical [4] - Attention is also recommended for companies primarily generating domestic revenue, expected to recover as innovative drugs expand internationally, like Tigermed [4]

海通国际发布研报称，维持石药集团(01093)"优于大市"评级与目标价11.34港元，前三季度营收同比有 所下滑，但第三季度单季业绩已显现回暖迹象，成药收入环比增长10%，归母净利润同比增长27%，公 司通过加大研发投入并优化销售费用，积极推动创新药放量及资产出海(如SYS6010等)，管理层对2026 年成药业务恢复正增长及未来BD成果持乐观态度。 海通国际主要观点如下： 业绩表现 -神经系统收入19.1亿元(同比-4%，环比+4%) -抗肿瘤收入5.9亿元(同比-47%，环比+19%) -抗感染收入8.3亿元(同比-9%，环比+12%) 9M25石药集团实现收入199亿元(同比-12%)，其中成药收入155亿元(同比-17%)，原料药收入30亿元(同 比+10%)，功能食品及其他业务14亿元(同比+11%)。公司实现毛利率65.6%(同比下滑4.9ppts)；研发费用 42亿元(同比+8%)，研发费用率21.0%(同比提高3.9ppts)；销售费用率24.1%(同比减少5.1ppts)。前三季度 石药集团实现归母净利润35亿元(同比-7%)。管理层预计2026年成药销售有望恢复正增长，但同时也表 示仿制药 ...