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大行评级|海通国际:金沙中国Q4经调整物业EBITDA低于预期,仍维持“优于大市”评级
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-30 03:47
海通国际发表研报指,金沙中国去年第四季净收益20.58亿美元,按年提升16.2%;经调整物业EBITDA 达6.08亿美元,按年提升6.5%,对应经调整物业EBITDA利润率为29.5%。整体而言,期内净收益符合 市场预期,但经调整物业EBITDA则低于市场预期。该行预计公司2026至27年的净收益分别为79.37亿及 83.63亿美元,按年增长6.2%及5.4%;博彩毛收入为76.52亿及80.82亿美元,按年增长6.6%及5.6%;经 调整物业EBITDA预测下调至24.83亿及26.43亿美元,经调整物业EBITDA利润率为31.3%及31.6%。该行 维持对其"优于大市"评级,目标价为22.3港元。 ...
海通国际:维持再鼎医药(09688)“优于大市”评级 双引擎助力实现长期全球价值
智通财经网· 2026-01-30 03:40
Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for Zai Lab (09688) with a target price of HKD 35.25, adjusting revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to USD 470 million, USD 500 million, and USD 720 million respectively, driven by the introduction and commercialization of overseas products and a cross-border platform for global development of innovative pipelines [1] Group 1: 2025 Performance Outlook - Zai Lab is expected to achieve a net product revenue of USD 470 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, with core product Efgartigimod (FcRn) revenue projected at USD 97.96 million, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, and a gross margin of 61.0% [1] - Research and Development (R&D) expenses are forecasted at USD 200 million, down 12.8% year-on-year, while Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) expenses are expected to be USD 280 million, a decrease of 5.0% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Dual-Drive Strategy - The management reiterated a dual-drive strategy during a recent investor meeting, focusing on introducing high-quality overseas products for domestic commercialization to provide a solid financial foundation for global innovation investments, and leveraging an integrated cross-border R&D platform for efficient global market development of quality pipelines [2] - Despite previous downward adjustments to the 2025 revenue guidance and delayed profitability targets, the company remains optimistic about its rich portfolio of commercialized products in the domestic market, with eight products approved for launch, and several differentiated global assets in the pipeline [2] Group 3: Zocilurtatug Clinical Trials - Zocilurtatug (DLL3 ADC) is set to initiate three registration clinical studies by the end of 2026, targeting small cell lung cancer (SCLC) and neuroendocrine cancer (NEC) [3] - The ongoing clinical data for SCLC shows an overall response rate (ORR) of 68.4% with good safety profiles, and a registration phase III clinical study has already commenced [3] - Management anticipates data from a phase I clinical study for first-line SCLC in the second half of 2026, with a phase III clinical study expected to start by the end of the year [3] Group 4: Early Clinical Products - ZL-1503 targets IL-13 and IL-31R, designed for long-acting/low-frequency administration, aiming to provide rapid relief from itching and broad disease control, with initial human study data expected in the second half of 2026 [4] - ZL-6201 (LRRC15 ADC) aims to disrupt the tumor microenvironment for various solid tumors, with global phase I clinical studies anticipated to start in Q1 2026 [4] - ZL-1222 (PD-1/IL-12) has shown strong anti-tumor activity in preclinical models, with clinical trial applications expected to be completed within the year [4] - ZL-1311 (MUC17 TCE) is projected to enter global clinical development within the year, targeting overexpressed antigens in gastric cancer and gastroesophageal junction cancer [4]
海通国际:维持再鼎医药“优于大市”评级 双引擎助力实现长期全球价值
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-30 03:37
Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for Zai Lab (09688) with a target price of HKD 35.25, adjusting revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to USD 470 million, USD 500 million, and USD 720 million respectively, driven by the introduction and commercialization of overseas products and a cross-border platform for global development of innovative pipelines [1] Group 1: 2025 Performance Outlook - Zai Lab is expected to achieve a net product revenue of USD 470 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, with core product Efgartigimod (FcRn) revenue projected at USD 97.96 million, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, and a gross margin of 61.0% [2] - Research and Development (R&D) expenses are forecasted at USD 200 million, down 12.8% year-on-year, while Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) expenses are expected to be USD 280 million, a decrease of 5.0% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Dual-Drive Strategy - The management reiterated a dual-drive core strategy during a recent investor meeting: 1) introducing high-quality overseas products for domestic commercialization to provide a solid financial foundation for global innovation investments; 2) a highly integrated cross-border R&D platform to accelerate the global market development of quality pipelines [3] - Despite previous downward adjustments to the 2025 revenue guidance and delays in profitability targets, the company is viewed positively due to a rich portfolio of commercialized products in the domestic market (8 products approved) and several globally differentiated assets in the pipeline [3] Group 3: Zocilurtatug Clinical Trials - Zocilurtatug (DLL3 ADC) is expected to initiate three registration clinical trials by the end of 2026, targeting small cell lung cancer (SCLC) and neuroendocrine cancer (NEC) [4] - The ongoing clinical data for SCLC shows an overall response rate (ORR) of 68.4% with good safety profiles, and a registration phase III clinical trial has already commenced [4] - Management anticipates data from a phase I clinical trial for first-line SCLC in combination with PD-L1 ± chemotherapy to be released in the second half of 2026, with a registration phase III trial expected to start by the end of the year [4] Group 4: Early Clinical Products - ZL-1503 targets IL-13 and IL-31R, designed for long-acting/low-frequency administration, aiming for rapid itch relief and broad disease control, with initial human study data expected in the second half of 2026 [5] - ZL-6201 (LRRC15 ADC) aims to disrupt the tumor microenvironment for various solid tumors, with global phase I clinical trials expected to start in Q1 2026 [5] - ZL-1222 (PD-1/IL-12) has shown strong anti-tumor activity in preclinical models, with clinical trial applications expected to be completed within the year [5] - ZL-1311 (MUC17 TCE) is anticipated to enter global clinical development within the year, targeting overexpression in approximately 50% of gastric and gastroesophageal junction cancers [5]
海通国际:维持金沙中国“优于大市”评级 25Q4经调整EBITDA低于预期
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-30 02:46
海通国际发布研报称,维持金沙中国(01928)"优于大市"评级。该行预计公司2026-2027年的净收益为 7937/8363百万美元,同比增长6.2%/5.4%,博彩毛收入为7652/8082百万美元,同比增长6.6%/5.6%,经 调整物业EBITDA为2483/2643百万美元(原为2601/2784百万美元),经调整物业EBITDA利润率为 31.3%/31.6%,公司在澳门的市场份额持续多年第一,拥有规模最大的娱乐场及会展中心,该行给予公 司2026E 12x EV/EBITDA(原为12.5x),对应市值为1804亿港元,对应股价为22.3港元。 海通国际主要观点如下: LVS发布金沙中国25Q4业绩 公司实现净收益20.58亿美元,同比提升16.2%;经调整物业EBITDA达6.08亿美元,同比提升6.5%,对应 经调整物业EBITDA利润率为29.5%。整体来看,25Q4公司净收益符合市场预期,但经调整物业 EBITDA低于市场预期。 公司旗下各物业业绩分化,威尼斯人/百丽宫净收益同比环比均有所提升 公司实现净收益20.58亿美元,同比提升16.2%。其中,博彩/非博彩业务分别贡献15.4/5 ...
海通国际:维持新东方-S“优于大市”评级 降本增效战略持续显效
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-30 02:12
3QFY26 K12业务营收有望加速增长,核心得益于留存率提升与寒假排课量增加 过去几个季度,公司坚持努力提升产品力与教学授课质量,高中及K9非学科业务的用户留存率实现显 著提升。考虑到今年春节时间较晚,今年寒假排课量多于去年。基于此,该行预测K12业务营收将同比 增长19%至8.15亿美元;其中高中业务同比增长18%,主要1V1及OMO助力,K9新业务,同比增23%,主 要受益于初中强劲复苏。 2QFY26业绩回顾 公司总营收同比增长15%至11.91亿美元,超出机构一致预期3%,且突破公司此前9%~12%的指引上 限。NonGaap营业利润同比大增223%至8900万美元,超出一致预期62%,对应Non-Gaap营业利润率为 7.5%,较一致预期的4.7%提升2.8个百分点。递延收入为21.615亿美元,同比增长10.2%,而1QFY26同 比增幅为10%。 海通国际发布研报称,维持新东方-S(09901)"优于大市"评级,对2026财年公司Non-Gaap NP仍采用18倍 PE进行估值,基于业绩预期上修,将目标价由49港币上调至52港币。该行观察到公司的降本增效措施 持续生效;同时通过渠道调研发现,公 ...
海通国际:维持新东方-S(09901)“优于大市”评级 降本增效战略持续显效
智通财经网· 2026-01-30 02:09
Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) and raises the target price from HKD 49 to HKD 52 based on upgraded performance expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 FY26, the company's total revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to USD 1.191 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 3% and surpassing the previous guidance of 9%-12% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit surged by 223% year-on-year to USD 89 million, exceeding consensus expectations by 62%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 7.5%, up 2.8 percentage points from the consensus estimate of 4.7% [1] - Deferred revenue reached USD 2.1615 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, consistent with the 10% growth in Q1 FY26 [1] Group 2: K12 Business Outlook - K12 business revenue is expected to accelerate growth in Q3 FY26, driven by improved retention rates and increased course offerings during the winter break [2] - The K12 business revenue is projected to grow by 19% year-on-year to USD 815 million, with high school business expected to grow by 18% and K9 new business anticipated to increase by 23% [2] Group 3: Study Abroad Business Challenges - The study abroad sector remains under pressure, impacting the overall revenue of the core education segment [3] - Despite a 1% year-on-year growth in Q2 FY26, the company is expected to adopt a conservative outlook for Q4 FY26 due to the seasonal characteristics of the study abroad consulting business [3] - The company anticipates a decline in study abroad revenue next year due to the ongoing instability in the industry and the merger of exam preparation and study abroad consulting businesses [3] Group 4: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - The core education segment's operating profit margin improved by 3 percentage points in Q2 FY26, attributed to effective cost reduction and efficiency measures [4] - The company expects these measures to continue yielding results, with projected Non-GAAP operating profit margins increasing by 1.4 and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year to 13.4% and 12.9% for Q3 FY26 and FY26, respectively [4]
海通国际:维持金沙中国(01928)“优于大市”评级 25Q4经调整EBITDA低于预期
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-30 01:56
智通财经APP获悉,海通国际发布研报称,维持金沙中国(01928)"优于大市"评级。该行预计公司2026- 2027年的净收益为7937/8363百万美元,同比增长6.2%/5.4%,博彩毛收入为7652/8082百万美元,同比增 长6.6%/5.6%,经调整物业EBITDA为2483/2643百万美元(原为2601/2784百万美元),经调整物业EBITDA 利润率为31.3%/31.6%,公司在澳门的市场份额持续多年第一,拥有规模最大的娱乐场及会展中心,该 行给予公司2026E 12x EV/EBITDA(原为12.5x),对应市值为1804亿港元,对应股价为22.3港元。 公司博彩毛收入达20.2亿美元,同比提升23.1%,同比增速超行业水平(15%),环比提升9.9%。其中, VIP/中场/老虎机的博彩毛收入分别为2.8/15.4/2.0亿美元,同比分别变动+155.8%/+12.8%/20.4%。中场业 务中,普通中场/高端中场的博彩毛收入分别为7.51/7.91亿美元,同比分别变动+11.9%/+13.8%,环比分 别变动-0.4%/+1.9%。该行认为,公司博彩毛收入的提升主要受VIP和高端中场 ...
海通国际:维持西锐(02507)“优于大市”评级 产品叠加服务铸就护城河
智通财经网· 2026-01-29 01:49
Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for the company, based on expected improvements in product updates, shipments, and profitability, projecting revenues of $1.394 billion, $1.674 billion, and $1.951 billion for 2025-2027, respectively, with net profits of $159 million, $183 million, and $204 million for the same period [1] Group 1 - The company has a strong service and training network, with approximately 260 service points globally, including 193 authorized service centers, enhancing its competitive edge [1] - The company is expected to deliver around 800 aircraft in 2025, with a projected 10% year-on-year increase in SR2X series deliveries and a 4% increase in Vision Jet deliveries [2] - The average selling price for the SR2X series is expected to rise to approximately $1.19 million, while the Vision Jet's average price is projected to increase to $3.45 million, contributing to improved profit margins [2] Group 2 - The company is anticipated to meet the requirements for market capitalization, trading volume, and turnover rate set by index companies by the end of 2025 [3]
海通国际:维持西锐“优于大市”评级 产品叠加服务铸就护城河
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-29 01:46
Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for Cirrus Aircraft (02507), expecting revenue growth and improved profitability due to product upgrades, with projected revenues of $1.394 billion, $1.674 billion, and $1.951 billion for 2025-2027, respectively, and net profits of $159 million, $183 million, and $204 million for the same period [1] Group 1 - The density of service and training stations for Cirrus Aircraft, along with user-friendly products, creates a competitive moat for the company [2] - The company has approximately 260 service points globally, with 193 authorized service centers covering major areas in the U.S., and 143 certified training centers, enhancing customer satisfaction and operational efficiency [2] - Safety, avionics systems, and ease of operation are highlighted as key advantages of Cirrus Aircraft over competitors, aligning well with customer demands [2] Group 2 - Cirrus Aircraft is expected to deliver around 800 aircraft in 2025, with 694 units from the SR2X series (approximately 10% year-on-year growth) and 106 units from the Vision Jet (approximately 4% year-on-year growth) [3] - The average selling price for the SR2X series is projected to rise to about $1.19 million, while the Vision Jet's average price is expected to increase to $3.45 million, contributing to improved profit margins [3] - The company anticipates a year-on-year increase in overall gross margin and net margin by 0.9 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, with an estimated net profit of approximately $156 million for the year [3] Group 3 - The index company is expected to announce a new adjustment list in mid-February, and Cirrus Aircraft meets the criteria for market capitalization, trading volume, and turnover rate by the end of 2025 [4]
海通国际:维持老铺黄金(06181)“优于大市”评级 差异化原创贡献营收
智通财经网· 2026-01-27 02:57
Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for Laopu Gold (06181), with a target price of HKD 948.4, indicating a potential upside of 20.4% by 2026, driven by strong revenue and net profit growth exceeding 200% in 2025 due to store expansion, membership growth, and product innovation [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Revenue for Laopu Gold is expected to grow by 217% year-on-year to CNY 26.96 billion in 2025, with approximately CNY 14.6 billion in 2H25, reflecting a 193% increase [2] - The company anticipates a same-store sales growth of over 160% for 2025, with 2H25 same-store sales growth projected at over 120%, despite a high base effect from 1H25 [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach CNY 4.63 billion in 2025, a 214% increase year-on-year, with 2H25 net profit expected to be CNY 2.36 billion, up 167% [2] Group 2: Store Expansion Strategy - Laopu Gold plans to deepen its "small but exquisite, large but beautiful" luxury store location strategy, adding approximately five new stores in top-tier shopping districts in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong during the second half of 2025 [3] - The company has opened its first overseas store in Marina Bay Sands, Singapore, in June 2025, enhancing its international presence and reaching high-net-worth customers [3] - As of December 19, 2025, Laopu Gold operates over 46 self-operated stores across 16 cities, with a focus on first-tier and high-end commercial properties [3] Group 3: Product Innovation - Laopu Gold is driving product iteration through differentiated original designs, with new product launches aimed at broadening its customer base and enhancing revenue contributions [4] - Notable product launches include the "Golden Cross" series in June 2025 and the "Goddess of Light" pendant in November 2025, showcasing a blend of cultural themes and contemporary aesthetics [4] - The brand plans to release a "Thousand Horses Series" for the New Year, aligning with gifting and collectible demands, indicating a clear rhythm in product innovation [4]