Core Viewpoint - Haitong International reports that AUX Electric (02580) demonstrates excellent channel efficiency under the new retail model in the domestic market, while simultaneously advancing its OBM and ODM businesses in overseas markets. The global air conditioning market's expansion provides significant growth potential for the company, with an expected increase in market share. The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% from 2025 to 2027, potentially resulting in a dividend yield exceeding 10% by 2025 based on current stock prices and net profit assumptions. The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 1.96, 2.14, and 2.45 CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 9%, and 14%. A 10x PE valuation for 2025 suggests a target price of 21.30 HKD, with an initial rating of "outperform the market" [1]. Group 1 - The company has a well-established product layout in air conditioning, with flexible capacity management effectively controlling risks. The establishment of a factory in Thailand expands overseas capacity, aligning with rising demand in Southeast Asia and providing flexibility to manage potential export trade barriers [2]. - The company has pioneered a new retail model in China, integrating online and offline channels to enhance channel efficiency, control terminal retail prices, and empower distributors to meet end-user demands. Benefiting from national subsidy policies, domestic air conditioning sales are expected to continue growing during 2024-2025. The efficient channel and market operation model is anticipated to support the company's performance above industry standards in the medium to long term [3]. Group 2 - In the overseas market, the company operates in over 150 countries and regions, establishing local sales teams to effectively conduct OBM business while ensuring stable growth in ODM orders through its strong R&D and manufacturing capabilities. The dual strategy of OBM and ODM is expected to drive rapid growth, with notable increases in business scale across Asia, Europe, and South America, leading to an anticipated rise in global market share [4]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in revenue and profit, supported by its strong domestic market performance and impressive expansion in overseas markets. The domestic market is projected to benefit from the overall demand release and increased penetration in the air conditioning sector, while the flexible advancement of ODM and OBM businesses in international markets is expected to drive rapid global business expansion [5].

Core Insights - The pet consumption sector is experiencing rapid growth, with projected sales of 9.4 billion yuan during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, representing a 59% increase from 2024 [1][2] - Tmall dominates the pet sales market, accounting for 64% of sales, with a significant increase in daily sales during the event compared to September [3] - Domestic brands are rising in prominence, with top brands performing well on major platforms like Tmall and JD [4] - There is a clear trend towards premium and specialized pet products, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards viewing pets as family members [5] Industry Growth - The pet consumption market is projected to grow significantly, with Tmall's pet sales showing a consistent double-digit growth over four years, surpassing 50 billion yuan in annual transaction volume [3] - JD Supermarket reported a 25% year-on-year increase in new users during the Double Eleven period [2] - The overall pet consumption on platforms like Douyin is also increasing, with notable growth in pet apparel and grooming products [2] Brand Performance - The top five brands on Tmall and Douyin during Double Eleven are all domestic brands, indicating a strong local market presence [4] - Notable brands such as Guobao Pet and its products, including Maifudi, are among the top performers in the pet food category [4] Consumer Trends - The Engel coefficient for pet spending on Tmall has decreased by 2.93% over three years, indicating a diversification in pet-related expenditures [5] - There is a growing demand for high-end pet food products, with an increasing share of premium offerings in the market [5] - The market is seeing a shift towards more refined and emotional consumption patterns, as pets are increasingly viewed as integral family members [5] Investment Opportunities - The pet industry in China is expected to continue its rapid growth, with domestic brands enhancing their market competitiveness through innovation [6] - Recommended investment targets include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ), Guobao Pet (301498.SZ), and Petty Co., Ltd. (300673.SZ) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on gold, effective from November 1, 2025, is expected to significantly increase the overall cost structure of the gold jewelry industry, leading to price adjustments and potential impacts on consumer demand [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of gold, resulting in a clear upward trend in overall costs across the industry [2]. - For investment purposes, the new policy restricts gold exchange members from issuing special VAT invoices, eliminating the ability for downstream entities to fully deduct input VAT, leading to a zero input deduction [2]. - For non-investment purposes, the ability to issue special invoices is also restricted, with a fixed deduction rate of 6% applied to ordinary invoices, significantly reducing the deductible input VAT [2]. Group 2: Impact on Industry Costs - The overall tax burden on physical gold transactions is expected to rise, which will be transmitted along the supply chain, increasing costs for businesses [2]. - A hypothetical scenario illustrates that a gold jewelry company’s tax liability for non-investment purposes could increase from 80,000 yuan to 135,000 yuan, and for investment purposes, it could rise to 195,000 yuan, indicating a substantial increase in effective tax burden [2]. - The inability to issue special invoices for investment gold sales will further elevate the tax burden in the distribution chain, particularly affecting companies with a high proportion of franchise sales [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new tax policy, major gold and jewelry brands raised prices by approximately 5% to 6% to partially offset the new tax burden [1]. - As international gold prices declined, brands subsequently adjusted their prices downward, indicating a dynamic pricing environment influenced by both policy and market conditions [1]. - Continuous monitoring of the policy's implementation and its effects on the industry is recommended to understand the evolving market landscape [1].

Core Insights - Global gold demand is expected to remain resilient in Q4, with a potential seasonal rebound in the Chinese market driven by holidays [1] - The World Gold Council (WGC) indicates that geopolitical uncertainties and anticipated interest rate cuts in Q4 will continue to support global gold demand [1] - Investment demand remains dominant, with record high global gold demand in Q3 2025, primarily driven by gold bars and coins [1][2] Group 1: Global Gold Demand - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, with total demand value rising 44% to $146 billion [1] - Investment demand accounted for 40.9% of total gold demand, with gold bar and coin demand exceeding 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, totaling 316 tons [1] - Central bank gold purchases remained high at 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase quarter-on-quarter, despite a slowdown in cumulative purchases compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Chinese Gold Market - In Q3 2025, China's retail gold investment and consumption demand totaled 152 tons, a 7% year-on-year decline, marking the weakest Q3 since 2009 [3] - However, the monetary value of this demand reached 120.4 billion RMB (approximately $16.9 billion), a 29% year-on-year increase, indicating a "volume drop, price rise" trend [3] - Gold jewelry demand saw a seasonal rebound, with a quarterly demand of 84 tons, down 18% year-on-year but up 21% quarter-on-quarter, driven by seasonal factors and consumer willingness to purchase despite high prices [3] Group 3: Gold Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply increased only 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons, with gold mine production and recycled gold contributing 73.8% and 26.2% respectively [2] - The average gold price in Q3 2025 reached $3,457 per ounce, a 40% year-on-year increase, reflecting the disparity between strong demand and limited supply growth [2] Group 4: Gold ETFs in China - In Q3, China's gold ETFs experienced a slight outflow of 3.8 billion RMB (approximately $540 million), ending three consecutive quarters of net inflow [4] - Despite the outflow, the total assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs grew 11% year-on-year to 168.8 billion RMB (approximately $23.7 billion), reaching a new monthly high [4] - The Chinese official gold reserves increased by 24 tons in the first nine months of the year, with a quarterly increase of 5 tons, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth [4]

Company News - Dream Home is planning to acquire control of ChuanTu Microelectronics through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring. The company's stock will be suspended from trading starting November 6 for up to 10 trading days [3] - Kweichow Moutai announced plans to repurchase shares worth between RMB 15 billion and RMB 30 billion, with a maximum repurchase price of RMB 1887.63 per share. The total cash dividend proposed for the mid-term distribution is RMB 300.01 billion, with a per-share payout of RMB 23.957 [4] - China Fortune Land Development issued a risk warning, noting that its stock has risen 95.21% over seven consecutive trading days, significantly deviating from its fundamentals, indicating a potential for rapid decline [5] - Kabeiyi announced a capital investment of RMB 100 million to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary focused on the research, production, and sales of humanoid robot components [6] - Jiayuan Technology signed a framework agreement with CATL to expand their business relationship, focusing on the supply and development of battery anode materials, with projected capacities of 157,000 tons, 204,000 tons, and 265,000 tons for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [6] - Xiling Power plans to acquire 100% of Weipai Automotive Electronics, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary, focusing on the production and sales of turbochargers [6] - Haosai was fined RMB 7 million for bribery, with its former chairman receiving a suspended prison sentence and a fine of RMB 3 million. The total penalties amount to RMB 28.52 million, representing 15.90% of the company's latest audited net profit [7] - Weining Health's subsidiary was fined RMB 800,000 for bribery, with the actual controller receiving a prison sentence of 18 months and a fine of RMB 200,000. The case is under appeal and is not expected to significantly impact the company's operations [8] Industry News - The Central Financial Office emphasized the need for financial risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development in the financial system, with a focus on improving the central bank system and optimizing financial institutions [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced adjustments to export control lists and unreliable entity lists, indicating a shift in trade policy [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported a decline in new A-share accounts, with October seeing 2.31 million new accounts, a 21.36% decrease from September and a 66.26% decrease year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Haidong International's report indicates a cautious outlook for Prada's net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with revised profit forecasts reflecting a slower recovery in the industry compared to previous expectations [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Prada's revenue reached €1.33 billion, marking a 9% year-on-year increase, with fixed exchange rates applied [2] - By brand, Prada's revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year, while Miu Miu's revenue surged by 29%, following a high base of 105% growth in the same period last year [2] - Regional performance showed varied results, with North America leading growth at 20%, while Japan experienced a slight decline of 1% [2] Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about Miu Miu's growth potential, driven by high-quality brand growth and significant store expansion opportunities [3] - Prada is expected to enhance its product offerings through increased creative investment in leather goods and marketing of iconic products, aiming to broaden its consumer base [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Haitong International indicates a cautious outlook for Prada (01913) with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a moderate growth trajectory amid industry recovery challenges [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Prada reported revenue of €1.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% (fixed exchange rate) [2] - By brand, Prada's revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year, while Miu Miu's revenue grew by 29%, following a high base of 105% growth in the same period last year [2] - Regional performance showed year-on-year revenue changes: Asia-Pacific +10%, Europe +2%, North America +20%, Japan -1%, Middle East +10%, with North America leading growth despite a high base [2] Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about Miu Miu's growth potential, driven by high-quality brand growth and significant store expansion opportunities [3] - As of the end of 2024, Miu Miu is expected to have 147 direct stores globally, compared to over 300 for YSL and BV, indicating room for growth [3] - Prada plans to enhance its product offerings through increased creative investment in leather goods and marketing of iconic products, aiming to broaden consumer reach [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the target price for AIA Group (01299) to HKD 99.5, reflecting an optimistic outlook on the company's long-term growth prospects, supported by various strategic factors [1][1][1] Group 1: Business Performance - AIA's new business value for the third quarter grew by 25% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, significantly up from 14% in the first half of 2025, amounting to USD 1.476 billion, which exceeded market expectations [1][1][1] - The new business value margin improved by 5.7 percentage points year-on-year to 58.2%, with first-year standard premium growth of 14% [1][1][1] Group 2: Distribution Channels - The agent channel showed strong performance with a year-on-year growth of 19%, contributing over 70% of the group's new business value [1][1][1] - The partnership distribution channel also achieved a remarkable 46% year-on-year growth in new business value [1][1][1] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The new business contract service margin (NB CSM) saw a year-on-year increase of over 25% in the third quarter [1][1][1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised AIA Group's (01299) new business value forecast for 2025 to 2027 by 1.8% to 2.5%, with the target price increased from HKD 97.8 to HKD 99.5, citing strong long-term growth prospects supported by factors such as an elite agent team, rapidly growing partnership channels, cross-regional layout, quality customer base, diversified product portfolio, and strong profitability [1] - Haitong International reported that AIA's new business value grew by 25% year-on-year in Q3 at constant exchange rates, compared to 14% in the first half of 2025, amounting to USD 1.476 billion, which exceeded market expectations [1] - The new business value margin increased by 5.7 percentage points year-on-year to 58.2%, with first-year standard premium growth of 14% [1] Group 2 - The agent channel showed strong performance with a year-on-year growth of 19%, contributing over 70% of the group's new business value; the partnership distribution channel also achieved a 46% year-on-year growth in new business value [1] - The new business contract service margin (NB CSM) saw a year-on-year increase of over 25% in Q3 [1]

Group 1: Gaming Revenue - In the first ten months of 2025, Macau's gaming gross revenue reached MOP 205.43 billion, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase and recovering to 83.3% of the level seen in the same period of 2019 [1] - In October 2025, Macau's gaming gross revenue amounted to MOP 24.09 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.9% and a month-on-month increase of 31.7%, recovering to 91.1% of the level in October 2019 [1] - The average daily gaming revenue in October 2025 was MOP 777 million, a 27.4% increase from September's MOP 610 million, marking the highest level since the pandemic [1] Group 2: Tourism and Visitor Statistics - In September 2025, the number of visitors entering Macau increased by 9.8% year-on-year, reaching 2.78 million, which is 100.4% of the level in September 2019 [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, the total number of visitors to Macau was 29.67 million, representing a 14.5% year-on-year increase and recovering to 98.2% of the level in the same period of 2019 [2] - In September 2025, the hotel occupancy rate in Macau was 84.6%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points, while remaining stable compared to 2019 [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming events in November, including concerts and the National Games, are expected to boost visitor numbers and gaming gross revenue in Macau [1] - The gaming revenue is projected to achieve high single-digit growth in 2025 [1]