Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of mid-term population changes on housing prices in developed countries/regions is limited, as there is no significant positive correlation between housing price indices and population growth rates or numbers [1] - From 2022, housing prices in 70 cities have entered a downward trend, with a widening decline expected in Q3 2024, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed since Q4 due to supportive policies [1] - The current adjustment cycle in the housing market has seen both new and second-hand housing price indices decline for over 40 months [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that housing prices in developed countries/regions have experienced fluctuations since the 1980s, with price corrections often exceeding those in China, but eventually stabilizing [2] - Key factors for stabilizing and recovering housing prices include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, such as large-scale quantitative easing, interest rate cuts, and fiscal subsidies [2] - A stable policy outlook, low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structure are crucial for halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market [2] Group 3 - The stabilization of housing prices is influenced by multiple factors, including monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations, rather than solely by population dynamics [3] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit property companies with good urban fundamentals and leading product capabilities, as well as firms that can drive both residential and commercial real estate [3] - The increasing penetration rate of second-hand housing indicates a promising outlook for the real estate after-service sector [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the majority of Hong Kong's property stocks experienced an increase, with notable gains from companies such as Sunac China and Country Garden, which rose over 3% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including New World Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, Vanke, and Greentown China, also saw increases exceeding 2% [1]

Group 1 - Three public REITs products have been approved, indicating continuous expansion of the public REITs market in China [1][2] - The approved REITs include the 华夏安博仓储REIT and 华夏中海商业REIT, both registered on September 22, 2025 [2][3] - 华夏安博仓储REIT is the only REIT with all assets located in the Greater Bay Area among listed and declared logistics REITs [1][2] Group 2 - 华夏安博仓储REIT has a fund contract duration of 41 years and a total fundraising amount of 400 million shares [3] - The initial assets of 华夏安博仓储REIT are three logistics projects in the Greater Bay Area, with a total assessed value of approximately 2.171 billion [4] - 华夏中海商业REIT has a fund contract duration of 24 years and a total fundraising amount of 300 million shares [5] Group 3 - The 佛山映月湖环宇城 project, part of 华夏中海商业REIT, has a total construction area of approximately 153,500 square meters and an average annual revenue growth rate of 24.75% from 2020 to 2024 [5] - The沈阳国际软件园公募REIT has a fund contract duration of 37 years and a total fundraising amount of 300 million shares [6] - The initial assets of 沈阳国际软件园公募REIT consist of 13 industrial buildings with a total property area of 201,200 square meters [9]

Company Overview - China Overseas Development Limited, a subsidiary of China State Construction Engineering Corporation, was founded in Hong Kong in 1979 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 1992 under the stock code 00688.HK. The company has over 46 years of experience in real estate development and property management, operating in more than 80 cities across mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, the UK, and Singapore. It possesses industry-leading capabilities in design, development, construction, operation, and property services, with three main business segments: real estate development, urban operation, and innovative business [1]. Carbon Neutrality Initiatives - In 2023, the company released the industry's first "Carbon Neutrality White Paper," establishing a strategic plan called "1333," focusing on "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" as core objectives. The plan outlines three phases from 2025 to 2060, with a commitment to reduce carbon emissions intensity by over 30% per unit area by 2030 (based on 2019 levels) and striving for carbon neutrality by 2060. This initiative sets a benchmark for other companies in the industry, encouraging more enterprises to engage in green transformation [2]. Zero Carbon Building Projects - The company has laid out zero carbon building demonstration projects across major climate zones in China. In 2024, three projects, including Shenzhen China Overseas Building and Beijing China Overseas Financial Center, were selected as part of the first batch of zero carbon building projects in the country. The Shenzhen China Overseas Building, which began construction in December 2020, employs 11 energy-saving and carbon-reduction technologies, achieving a comprehensive energy-saving rate of 61% and receiving multiple certifications, including near-zero energy design certification and WELL Gold certification. The Beijing China Overseas Financial Center utilizes geothermal heat pumps and advanced HVAC systems, achieving a building energy-saving rate of 70% and a carbon reduction rate of 68%. The company has developed a cumulative area of 600,000 square meters of near-zero energy and zero carbon buildings, covering various sectors such as residential and commercial [3]. Expert Commentary - Experts note that China Overseas Development is seizing new opportunities in the market by focusing on zero carbon buildings and green communities, transforming sustainable concepts into powerful drivers for urban renewal and real estate growth [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate development sector is "Buy" for key companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Binhai Group, while "Hold" is given to companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development [6][35][60]. Core Insights - The real estate development sector's price-to-book ratio (PB) is 0.85, with a historical percentile of 31.46% as of September 19, 2025, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [1][11]. - The property service sector has a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 47.78, with a historical percentile of 75.95%, suggesting a higher valuation compared to historical averages [2][38]. - Recent policy changes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have led to increased transaction volumes in the new housing market, particularly in Shanghai, where transaction intensity increased by 62.5% post-policy implementation [3][70]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development Sector - As of September 19, 2025, the real estate development sector has seen a 5.2% increase in stock prices from September 1 to September 19, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.05 percentage points [1][29]. - Key companies in the A-share market with the highest stock price increases include Binhai Group (+34.68%), New Town Holdings (+31.77%), and Huafa Group (+0.99%) [1][31]. - In the H-share market, China Jinmao (+63.25%), Jianfa International Group (+49.68%), and China Overseas Hongyang Group (+48.88%) led the gains [1][31]. Property Service Sector - The property service sector experienced a 4.1% increase from September 1 to September 19, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.97 percentage points [2][49]. - The top-performing A-share companies in the property service sector include Nandu Property (+67.33%), New Dazheng (+46.07%), and China Merchants Jinling (+14.70%) [2][55]. - In the H-share market, the leading companies were China Resources Vientiane Life (+52.36%), Jianfa Property (+42.22%), and Greentown Service (+35.34%) [2][55]. Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - Since August 2025, favorable policies have been introduced, including measures in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, which have significantly boosted new housing transactions [3][68]. - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in Shanghai surged by 62.5% following the policy changes, indicating a strong market response [4][70]. - The report highlights that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with core cities expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives [5][79].

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of rare scenic land parcels in Shanghai's land auction market, particularly during the sixth batch of concentrated land auctions in July 2025, where two scenic parcels were sold for the first time simultaneously [1][2]. Group 1: Auction Details - The sixth batch of concentrated land auctions in Shanghai took place on July 24-25, 2025, resulting in the sale of 8 residential land parcels with a total construction area of 523,100 square meters and a total transaction amount of 29.057 billion yuan, averaging a premium rate of 22.33% [2]. - Among the sold parcels, the Jing'an District C050202 unit (Dong Siwenli parcel) was acquired by China Overseas Land & Investment for 5.363 billion yuan, with a floor price of 90,390 yuan per square meter [2]. - The Xuhui District XH-02 unit was sold for 1.225 billion yuan after 28 rounds of bidding, setting a new record for residential land at a floor price of 200,257 yuan per square meter [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The supply of scenic residential land parcels in Shanghai is limited, with only 7 parcels supplied through auction methods in 2023, accounting for 27% of similar land supply in the city center [5]. - The auction process has seen a shift from previous high premium rates to a more cautious approach from traditional real estate companies, reflecting a rational assessment of land value amid market conditions [7]. - The current market environment indicates that even for scarce scenic land parcels, traditional developers are adopting a conservative bidding strategy rather than aggressively pursuing high prices [7]. Group 3: Land Use and Regulations - The scenic residential projects in Shanghai are primarily located in Huangpu, Jing'an, Hongkou, and Yangpu districts, with the introduction of new residential land in the Hengfu scenic area expanding high-end residential options in the central urban area [3]. - The scenic land parcels auctioned have a low proportion of protected land, generally below 50%, which does not meet the requirements for historical scenic projects [8]. - The auctioned parcels are mostly small-scale mixed-use developments, with the majority being under 20,000 square meters, indicating a trend towards smaller community projects [8]. Group 4: Participation and Access - The pathways for acquiring scenic land in Shanghai include public selection combined with agreement transfer, agreement transfer combined with equity transfer, and open bidding [10]. - The open bidding process is designed to attract national quality enterprises, allowing for a competitive mechanism to fully explore land value [11]. - High-protection scenic land parcels will continue to be supplied through selective methods to ensure compliance with protection requirements, while lower-protection parcels will be available through open bidding [11].

颜建国对黄浦区委、区政府长期以来对中海的信任与支持表示感谢，并介绍了中海黄浦建国东路项目推 进情况。他表示，黄浦区经济密度领先、区位优势突出、现代产业发达、高端要素集聚、创新氛围浓 厚。中海将主动担当央企责任与使命，继续发挥业务全产业链优势，强化投资力度，为黄浦区经济社会 高质量发展贡献更大力量。 杲云对颜建国一行到访表示欢迎，并代表黄浦区委、区政府对中海集团为黄浦区经济社会发展作出的贡 献表示感谢，并介绍了黄浦的区位优势、营商环境和发展前景。他表示，当前，黄浦区正在抢抓城市更 新带来的历史机遇，围绕上海打造全球城市，高质量推进土地规划开发建设，着力发挥"核心引领"作 用。今后，希望依托中海集团多平台要素资源汇聚优势，双方加强对接交流，助力黄浦建设具有世界影 响力的社会主义现代化国际大都市核心引领区。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 观点网讯：9月19日，中海集团董事长颜建国拜会上海市黄浦区委书记杲云，区委副书记、区长徐惠 丽。 双方就进一步加强战略合作，打造黄浦区精品标杆项目，助推黄浦区高质量发展进行了深入交流。黄浦 区副区长王滨，中海集团董事、中国海外发展行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][31]. Core Views - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, but the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline expected to be introduced [4][31]. - The report highlights that the real estate market in core cities is at a turning point and will lead the recovery. It emphasizes the potential of new policies to create new products, pricing, and models that will improve the real estate market in core cities [4][31]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - For the week of September 13-19, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.083 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 5.4%. The transaction volume for first and second-tier cities increased by 5.2%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 8.1% [5][6]. - In September 2025, the cumulative transaction volume for new housing in 34 cities was 5.605 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [6][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - For the week of September 13-19, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.096 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.1%. However, the cumulative transaction volume for September showed a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [12][31]. New Housing Inventory - In the week of September 13-19, 2025, 15 key cities had a total of 1.07 million square meters of new housing launched, with a total available residential area of 89.666 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking Real Estate Industry - The State Council has officially implemented the "Housing Rental Regulations," encouraging multiple channels to increase rental housing supply. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to August 2025, real estate investment totaled 603.09 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year [31][32]. - Shanghai has optimized its property tax pilot policy, temporarily exempting eligible residents from property tax for their first home and second homes under certain conditions [31][32]. Property Management Industry - The "Housing Rental Regulations" emphasize the role of property management in coordinating supervision and promoting the transition of the property industry from traditional management to "rental + service" [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of "good houses" is a strategic development direction for residential products, transitioning from policy concepts to industry practices, and is expected to become a long-term trend in the real estate market [1][3]. Group 1: Development and Policy Background of "Good Houses" - The demand for "good houses" is driven by urbanization and a shift in consumer expectations from merely having a house to living in a quality home [3][5]. - The industry's transformation is influenced by policies such as "housing is for living, not for speculation," leading to price control measures that have impacted profit margins for real estate companies [4][5]. - As quality issues in housing become more prominent, the industry is shifting focus from scale to quality, making "good houses" a consensus and development direction [6][5]. Group 2: Real Estate Companies' "Good House" Strategies and Case Studies - Leading real estate companies like Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources are launching "good house" strategies focusing on safety, comfort, green living, and smart technology [7][8]. - Companies are establishing comprehensive technical standards that cover the entire lifecycle from design to service, reflecting a shift towards refined management [8][9]. - The strategies are transitioning from qualitative claims to quantifiable controls, with companies like China Overseas achieving measurable improvements in sound insulation and pollution reduction [8][9]. Group 3: Five Dimensions of "Good House" Product Practices - Safety performance is emphasized as the first guarantee of quality living [30]. - Comfort and livability have evolved from merely increasing physical space to optimizing space efficiency and human-centered design [31][32]. - Health environment assurance has shifted from basic physical indicators to a multi-dimensional approach that includes sound, light, air, and water quality [44][45]. - Green and low-carbon initiatives are integrated into daily life through innovative designs and technologies [52]. - Smart technology is advancing from passive control to proactive service, enhancing user experience through intelligent systems [53][59]. Group 4: Future Outlook for "Good Houses" - The construction of "good houses" will be a continuous process of deepening and refining, with policies expected to become more detailed and standardized [70]. - The industry will continue to transition from traditional scale expansion to quality enhancement, focusing on the four dimensions of safety, comfort, green living, and smart technology [70].