传媒 ——凸显韧性，游戏回暖，微信货币化持续 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -20% 0% 20% 40% HSCEI 腾讯控股 买入（维持）事件： ⚫ 腾讯 24Q2 实现营收 1611 亿元，同比增长 8%，基本符合预期；调整后经营利润 584 亿元， 同比增长 27%；调整后归母净利润 573 亿元，同比增长 53%，大超彭博一致预期（487 亿元）；自由现金流 404 亿元，同比增长 35%。主业整体符合预期；净利润大超预期原因 包括一次性的税的影响，联营合营企业贡献（根据公司财报，Q2 调整后联营合营企业权益 为 99 亿元；23 年全年/24Q1 分别为 131/55 亿元；拼多多、快手、Epic 等正向贡献较多）。 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 08 月 17 日 腾讯控股 (00700) | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 16 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 372.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6161.9 | | ...

[Table_PageText] 腾讯控股|公告点评 三、风险提示 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|--------|-------|--------|--------|--------| | 主要财务比率 12 月 31 日 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | | | | | | | 主营收入增长率 | -1.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | | 营业利润增长率 | -14.3% | 52.8% | 30.0% | 7.1% | 17.0% | | NonGAAP 业绩增速 | -7.2% | 34.9% | 39.7% | 12.0% | 12.4% | | | | | | | | | | 43.1% | 48.1% | 53.2% | 54.9% | 55.8% | | NonGAAP 净利率 | 20.8% | 25.9% | 33.4% | 34.6% | 36.2% | | NonGAAP ROE | 15.9% ...

| --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | 腾讯控股 (00700) | 报告日期： 2024 年 08 月 16 日 | | | | | 本土游戏收入同比转正，管理重心向内利润加速析出 | | 运营数据表现稳健 分析师：姚逸云 执业证书号：S1230524080007 yaoyiyun@stocke.com.cn 股票走势图 | --- | --- | |---------------------|----------------------------| | | | | | | | 1 | 《利润大超预期，估值彰显性 | | 价比》 2024.05.16 | | | 2 | 《高质量增长抬升净利， | | 《 DnF 》定档 | 24Q2 》 | | 2024.03.24 | | | 3 | 《聚焦高质量增长，待游戏供 | | 给有序释放》 | 2023.11.17 | 社交网络收入 303 亿元，同比上升约 2%，环比下降约 1% ...

广告游戏业务韧性足，全年有望延续高增 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | --- | |-------------------------------| | | | /[ Table_Date] 2024.08.16 | | 腾讯控股 (0700) | | | | [Table_Industry] 传播文化业 | | | 24Q2 Non-IFRS 归母净利超预期，广告游戏韧性充足，联营合营企业投资收益高增 [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： 368.40 股 票 研 究 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 本报告导读： 海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） -21% -13% -5% 4% 12% 20% 2023/82023/9 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/8 52周内股价走势图 腾讯控股 恒生指数 [Table_Report] 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [14][11][29] Core Views - The company's revenue growth is driven by strong performance in advertising and gaming sectors, with a notable increase in profit margins. In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 161.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, primarily from advertising and gaming contributions [11][5][12] - The report highlights the improvement in the revenue mix, with a higher proportion of high-margin businesses such as WeChat video accounts and mini-game platform service fees [6][11] - The company is expected to benefit from the release of more advertising inventory, particularly in video accounts, and the ongoing development of e-commerce within its ecosystem [12][25][29] Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 609,015 in 2023 to 791,335 in 2027, with annual growth rates decreasing from 9.8% in 2023 to 5.0% in 2027 [1] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to rise from 157,688 million yuan in 2023 to 288,538 million yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 36.4% in 2023, tapering to 4.9% by 2027 [1] - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to increase from 16.63 yuan in 2023 to 30.96 yuan in 2027 [1] - The EBIT margin is anticipated to improve from 28.7% in 2023 to 38.2% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [1] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.3 in 2023 to 10.9 in 2027, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [1] Revenue Breakdown - The gaming segment's revenue is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2024, with a 9% year-on-year increase in Q2 2024, driven by successful game launches and recovery in popular titles [12][39] - The advertising revenue for Q2 2024 reached 299 billion yuan, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth, supported by upgraded advertising technology and increased demand for video account ads [12][24] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 4% year-on-year to 504 billion yuan in Q2 2024, although it faced macroeconomic pressures [13][42] Profitability Insights - The adjusted operating profit for Q2 2024 was 58.4 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year, with a Non-IFRS net profit margin of 35.6%, up 10 percentage points from the previous year [11][16] - The overall gross margin for the company improved to 53% in Q2 2024, with significant contributions from value-added services, online advertising, and financial technology sectors [17][18]

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Title] 游戏业务显著回暖，广告增长彰显韧性 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 2024 年二季度业绩报告。报告期内，公司营收同比增长 8%至 1611.2 亿元人民币，毛利同比增长 21%至 859 亿元，经调整利润同比增长 27%至 584.4 亿元。 ► 游戏如期回暖，看好三季度增长持续 ► 广告业务彰显韧性，金科企服增长承压 据公司公告，截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日止六个月内，公司于中国香港联交所以总代价约 523 亿港元（未计 开支）购回合共 154730000 股（1.55 亿）股份，购回的股份其后已被注销。我们根据当下每天 10 亿的回购节 奏判断，预计 2024 年回购总额有望超 1600 亿港元。高分红及回购计划彰显公司对股价的长期信心，同时维持此 前观点，大股东减持有望进入尾声，股价抛压可能逐步减弱。 [Table_Date] 2024 年 08 月 15 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------|---------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for Tencent Holdings, anticipating a revenue increase of 8.14% year-on-year for Q2 2024, with a target price of 372 HKD [5]. Core Views - Tencent is expected to report a revenue of 161.3 billion RMB for Q2 2024, with significant contributions from its value-added services and advertising segments [5]. - The gaming sector shows strong recovery potential, with new game launches expected to drive revenue growth in the coming quarters [5]. - The advertising business is projected to maintain high gross margins, supported by the growth of video accounts and operational optimizations [5]. - The cloud and financial services are focusing on high-quality growth while reducing costs, with an emphasis on the demand for cloud computing driven by large model market conditions [5]. Revenue Expectations - Anticipated revenue for value-added services in Q2 is 78.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.33% [5]. - Advertising revenue is expected to rise by 16.97% year-on-year to 29.2 billion RMB [5]. - Cloud and financial services are projected to generate 52.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.66% [5]. Profitability Forecast - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 is expected to increase by 28.24% year-on-year, reaching approximately 48.1 billion RMB [5].

公 司 研 究 / 传 媒 互 联 网/ 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_ 【投资要点 Summary]】 公司发布 2024 年二季度财报。 -21.31% -13.01% -4.72% 3.58% 11.88% 20.18% 8/15 10/15 12/15 2/15 4/15 6/15 腾讯控股 [Table_ 东方财富证券研究所 Author] 证券分析师：高博文 恒生指数 毛利率显著提升，费用略有提升。2024 年二季度，公司毛利率为 53.31%， 同比增长 5.83pct，主要系游戏、视频号佣金等高毛利收入增长所致；其 中，报告期内公司增值服务/网络广告/金融科技及企业服务（含其他）毛 利率分别同比增长 3.09pct/6.70pct/9.25pct。费用方面，报告期内，公 司销售及市场推广费用率 5.68%，同比增长 0.11pct；一般及行政费用率 17.06%，同比增长 0.03pct。 【投资建议】 公司主营业务优势稳固，后续新老游戏流水持续贡献收入增量，视频号小 程序生态商业化提升，AI 赋能业务新增长，业绩有望稳健提升。结合当前 公司经营情况，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计公司 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with expected Non-IFRS net profit attributable to the parent company of 2110.59/2297.62/2500.01 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to a PE of 15x/14x/13x [27] Core Views - The company's business demonstrated strong growth resilience in the first half of 2024, with gaming performance slightly exceeding expectations [27] - The company's advertising business achieved revenue of 563.77 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%, driven by AI-powered ad technology platform upgrades and ecosystem growth [31] - The company's overall gross profit margin reached 53% in the first half of the year, an increase of over 6 percentage points year-on-year [31] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3206.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 895.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72% [10] - The company's value-added services, online advertising, and fintech and business services accounted for 49%, 19%, and 31% of revenue, respectively [10] - The company's gaming business achieved revenue of 1574.51 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2%, with domestic market game revenue of 691 billion yuan and international market game revenue of 275 billion yuan [15] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 609015 million yuan in 2023 to 793115 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.2% [16] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 157688 million yuan in 2023 to 250001 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.7% [16] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to increase from 48.1% in 2023 to 53.4% in 2026 [16] Market Data - As of August 14, 2024, the company's H-share closing price was HK$373.80, with a total market capitalization of HK$3484.2 billion [6] - The company's total share capital is 9320.97 million shares [6]

资并未深：公司资料,安信国际研究签理 3 业绩点评/腾讯控股(700.HK) 资料来源：公司资料, 安信国际研究签理 图表 8: 持续稳定的回购记录 于安信国际证券(香港)有限公司。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|---------------------------------------------|----------|---------|---------|---------|-----------| | 附表:财务报表预测 \n《百万人民币》,财务年度截至<十二月三十一日> | 2022年 | 2023年 | 2024年 | 2025年 | 2025 年 | | 2022年 | 2023年 | 2024年 | 2025年 | 2025 ...