下调公积金贷款利率,拟推融资政策 2025 年国新办一揽子金融政策点评 2025 年 5 月 7 日 房地产行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 胡孝宇 网: huxiaoyu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-5-6 房地产(申万 40% 20% 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 行业点评·房地产行业 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 相关研究 1. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_持续巩固稳 定态势，有力有序推进城改 2. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_全面发力, 持续推动地产止跌回稳 3. 【银河地产】行业深度_房地产_内生和外生因素 支撑下的需求中枢 4. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_供需两侧齐 发力,推动地产止跌回稳 5. 【银河地产】行业点评_加快构建新模式,推进地 产新篇章_三中全会专题研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 o 事件: 2025年 5月7日,国新办举行新闻发布会,央行、金管局、证监会等 部门负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The cumulative sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies from January to April 2025 decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with a sales area decline of 19.9% [2][34] - The report highlights that the real estate market is stabilizing but requires further consolidation, with various policies introduced in 2024 aimed at revitalizing the market [3][67] - The report suggests that the real estate market will see regional and city-level differentiation, with some high-capacity cities gradually stabilizing [3][67] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In April 2025, the top 10 real estate companies had a total sales amount of 141.1 billion yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year, with a sales area decrease of 20.6% [1][8] - For the first four months of 2025, the top 100 companies reported a total sales amount of 1,093.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.8% [2][34] - The sales concentration of the top 10, 20, 50, and 100 companies decreased year-on-year, indicating a more competitive market [2][49] Key Companies - Among the 20 mainstream real estate companies, 6 reported positive year-on-year sales growth in April 2025, with notable performances from Huafa Group (+74%) and Jianfa Real Estate (+53%) [3][54] - For the first four months of 2025, 7 companies showed positive cumulative sales growth, with Huafa Group (+49%) and Yuexiu Property (+37%) leading [3][62] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with comprehensive development capabilities and those actively participating in urban renewal projects, such as China Overseas Development and China Merchants Shekou [4][67] - It also suggests looking into commercial REITs with strong operational brands and abundant existing commercial real estate resources, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group [4][67]

Core Insights - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in China has declined, with a total sales amount of 1018.17 billion yuan from January to April, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [1] - The overall sales in April saw a significant month-on-month drop of 10.4%, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum and a temporary bottleneck in demand [3] - Major state-owned enterprises such as Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Overseas Land & Investment lead the sales rankings, with 13 companies achieving sales exceeding 20 billion yuan in the first four months [1] Sales Performance - The top 100 real estate companies experienced a total sales amount of 1018.17 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, down 6.7% year-on-year [1] - In April alone, the sales performance hit a historical low, reflecting a significant decline in market activity [3] - The sales figures for major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have decreased due to supply constraints, while lower-tier cities continue to struggle with long inventory turnover and weak demand [3] Market Strategies - In response to market pressures, many real estate companies are focusing on the upcoming May Day holiday to stimulate market activity through various promotional strategies [3] - Companies are accelerating product upgrades to meet market demand for affordable and improved housing options, while also employing flexible pricing strategies and diverse promotional methods [3] - For instance, Longfor Group is implementing attractive promotional tactics during the May Day period, including price discounts and online live-streaming events to engage consumers [3] Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau has emphasized the need to "continuously consolidate the stable trend of the real estate market," indicating a supportive direction for the industry [4] - As policies supporting both supply and demand in the real estate sector are expected to be implemented, there is optimism that the market in core cities may recover further, leading to a stabilization of the industry [4] - Industry experts believe that if companies can launch products that meet market needs, the real estate market may gradually achieve a stop in decline and stabilize [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "May Day" holiday has seen a significant uptick in real estate transactions in Beijing, with developers reporting high visitor numbers and substantial sales figures, indicating a renewed interest in the housing market driven by new regulations and consumer expectations for quality housing [1][3][6]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Developers such as China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments reported sales of 1.8 billion yuan and 705 million yuan respectively during the "May Day" period [1]. - The China State Construction Engineering Corporation's project achieved sales of 610 million yuan, with specific projects like Yuanqi selling 36 units [1]. - The Beijing Jinju Wangjing Yunshang project experienced overwhelming customer interest, with 18 sales staff struggling to manage the influx of clients [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The introduction of the "Good House" national standard has shifted public focus from just usable area ratios to the quality of public spaces, emphasizing community living [1][11]. - The average sales price for new projects ranges from 11,000 to 13,000 yuan per square meter, reflecting a competitive pricing strategy among developers [3]. - Online property search activity increased by approximately 3.9% during the "May Day" holiday compared to the previous five days, indicating heightened consumer interest [6]. Group 3: Consumer Preferences - Buyers are increasingly inquiring about usable area ratios and overall living quality, reflecting a shift from merely acquiring housing to seeking better living experiences [11][13]. - The focus on community spaces and social interaction is becoming a critical factor in home buying decisions, with developers like Longfor Group emphasizing the importance of public areas in their projects [11][13]. - The expectation for higher quality housing is evident, as consumers are now more discerning about design and functionality, with a preference for projects that offer better living conditions [13].

Group 1: New Housing Market Trends - The new housing market in major cities experienced a "spot" heat during the May Day holiday, with significant discounts attracting buyers, including reductions of up to 1 million yuan on certain properties [1][2] - Developers in cities like Beijing launched aggressive promotions, with various types of properties, including residential and villas, seeing substantial price cuts [2][3] - The hot-selling properties are characterized by either high cost-performance ratios or superior design and quality due to upgrades in housing standards [1][3] Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market showed signs of stabilization after the traditional peak season, with a notable shift towards "price for volume" strategies in core cities [1][4] - In Beijing, the number of second-hand housing transactions remained above 15,000 units in March and April, with a year-on-year increase of 16.59% in April [5] - The market is experiencing a "cold-hot" differentiation, with demand concentrated in lower-priced segments, particularly for first-time buyers [5][6] Group 3: Regional Highlights - In Shanghai, the "national price king" project saw a subscription rate exceeding 220% before the holiday, indicating strong demand despite the high price point of over 17,000 yuan per square meter [6][7] - Other cities like Hangzhou and Wuhan also reported significant sales during the holiday, with some projects experiencing a "rush" for properties [8] - In Guangzhou, the market saw increased visitor numbers and sales, with some projects achieving sales of over 30 billion yuan during the holiday [9][10] Group 4: Shenzhen Market Performance - Shenzhen's new housing projects performed well during the holiday, with a year-on-year increase of 105% in signed contracts and 33% in viewings [10][11] - Local developers launched multiple projects, achieving significant sales figures, including over 1.78 billion yuan in sales for one project [11] - The second-hand market in Shenzhen also showed strong performance, with a 66% increase in signed contracts compared to the previous year [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a mixed performance, with new home sales showing a rebound in first and second-tier cities while third and fourth-tier cities are struggling [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant decline in April's year-on-year sales for new homes, with a drop of 18% compared to the previous year, and a more pronounced decline of 52% in third and fourth-tier cities [3][4]. - The government is implementing policies to stimulate demand and improve market conditions, including local measures such as "buying a house with a school placement" in Guangzhou [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Home Sales - In the week of April 26 to May 2, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new home sales volume of 249.3 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 20.1% [4]. - Year-on-year, April's new home sales in 34 cities fell by 18%, with first and second-tier cities down 13% and third and fourth-tier cities down 52% [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Sales - In the same week, second-hand home sales in 13 key cities totaled 101.2 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 29.7% [13]. - April's cumulative second-hand home sales were 571.5 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.2% [13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of April 26 to May 2, 2025, 15 key cities launched 131 million square meters of new homes, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.94 [22]. - The total available housing area in these cities was 89.58 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has implemented new regulations to enhance residential quality, including minimum ceiling heights and improved sound insulation standards [32]. - The total land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies reached 360.8 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [32]. - Local governments are introducing various measures to support homebuyers, including adjustments to public housing fund contributions and the issuance of housing vouchers [33][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Among AA - rated urban investment bonds (subject rating) with a high discount, "24 Hengting 03" has the largest deviation in valuation price. Among the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net - price decline, "23 Chanrong 09" has the largest deviation in valuation price. Among the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net - price increase, "22 Vanke 06" has the largest deviation in valuation price. Among the top 50 secondary perpetual bonds with the largest net - price increase, "24 ABC Secondary Capital Bond 02B" has the largest deviation in valuation price [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Discount - Rate Ranking of AA Urban Investment Bonds - The report presents a list of AA urban investment bonds with high discount rates, including details such as remaining term, valuation price, valuation net - price, valuation yield, etc. "24 Hengting 03" has a remaining term of 4.57 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.27%, a valuation net - price of 100.53 yuan, and a valuation yield of 2.45% [3]. 3.2 Top 50 Individual Bonds with the Largest Net - Price Decline - The list shows 50 individual bonds with significant net - price declines. "23 Chanrong 09" has a remaining term of 3.38 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.62%, a valuation net - price of 98.08 yuan, and a valuation yield of 4.02% [5]. 3.3 Top 50 Individual Bonds with the Largest Net - Price Increase - The report lists 50 individual bonds with the largest net - price increases. "22 Vanke 06" has a remaining term of 2.19 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.99%, a valuation net - price of 90.55 yuan, and a valuation yield of 8.61% [7]. 3.4 Top 50 Secondary Perpetual Bonds with the Largest Net - Price Increase - The list includes 50 secondary perpetual bonds with significant net - price increases. "24 ABC Secondary Capital Bond 02B" has a remaining term of 9.00 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.09%, a valuation net - price of 102.56 yuan, and a valuation yield of 2.17% [10].

Group 1 - The "May Day" holiday marks a significant marketing opportunity for real estate companies, with various promotional activities launched to attract buyers, including gold giveaways and travel reimbursements [2][3][4] - Major developers such as Poly Developments, Vanke, and China Overseas are actively engaging in marketing campaigns to boost sales during this critical period [2][5] - The introduction of the "Good House" standard by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is seen as a pivotal shift towards quality living, impacting supply and demand dynamics in the real estate market [6][7] Group 2 - Real estate companies are implementing comprehensive marketing strategies, with teams mobilized to maximize customer engagement and sales during the holiday [4][5] - The market is witnessing a record number of new project launches, indicating a proactive approach by developers to secure sales ahead of the holiday [7] - The focus on quality housing is expected to reshape the industry landscape, with a consensus emerging that only high-quality projects will succeed in the evolving market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for Hong Kong Real Estate (CSI Hong Kong Real Estate Index) has shown a decline of 1.97% over the past month, but an increase of 5.51% over the past three months and 1.84% year-to-date [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI Hong Kong Real Estate Index reported a value of 1462.70 points as of April 29 [1]. - The index is based on a sample of up to 50 eligible Hong Kong-listed companies that reflect the overall performance of the real estate sector [1]. Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted companies in the CSI Hong Kong Real Estate Index are: - Sun Hung Kai Properties (13.88%) - China Resources Land (12.3%) - Cheung Kong Property (8.74%) - China Overseas Land & Investment (8.05%) - Sino Land (4.68%) - Wharf Real Estate Investment (4.4%) - Henderson Land Development (4.15%) - Longfor Group (3.75%) - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (3.35%) - Wharf Holdings (3.08%) [1]. Group 3: Market Composition - The CSI Hong Kong Real Estate Index exclusively comprises companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% representation [2]. - The index is entirely focused on the real estate sector, with a 100% allocation to this industry [3]. Group 4: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [3]. - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as when a sample company is delisted or when new companies meet the eligibility criteria for inclusion [3].

Core Insights - Longfor Group Holdings Limited released its 2024 Sustainable Development Report with the theme "Caring for Coexistence," detailing its strategies and achievements in the ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) domain [1] Group 1: ESG Ratings and Recognition - In 2024, Longfor Group's ESG management system was upgraded, achieving several international recognitions, including an MSCI ESG rating of A (the highest for mainland real estate companies) and a GRESB score increase of 6 points to 96 (four-star green rating) [2] - The company also received a B rating from CDP for carbon information disclosure and was included in the Hang Seng ESG Enhanced Index and the Hang Seng Low Carbon Index, highlighting its benchmark status in sustainable development [2] Group 2: Green Development and Quality Delivery - Longfor integrates green concepts throughout the project lifecycle, with 100% of new projects in 2024 meeting national green building standards, totaling over 130 million square meters of green building area [3] - The Tianjin Meijiang Tianjie TOD project achieved intelligent operation through digital systems like IBMS and EMS, earning a two-star green building certification [3] - The company established a three-tier quality control system for product delivery, delivering approximately 100,000 housing units across 43 cities, with 20% of projects completed ahead of schedule and a customer satisfaction rate of 90% [3] Group 3: Philanthropy and Employee Care - Longfor's philanthropic foundation focuses on "the elderly and children" and rural revitalization, contributing over 2 billion yuan and assisting more than 2.34 million people through projects like the Dianjiang rural revitalization initiative, recognized as an excellent case by China.com [4] - In terms of employee development, the company provided training for 39,000 individuals, totaling 2.04 million hours, including 92 safety production training sessions, establishing a comprehensive career development system [4] - Looking ahead, Longfor aims to continue leading with ESG principles, embodying the philosophy of "Caring for Your Lifetime" to contribute to urban development and improving people's livelihoods [4]