Group 1: Commercial Real Estate Trends - The commercial real estate sector is experiencing a divergence, with leading companies like China Resources Land reporting a rental income of 18.56 billion yuan, a 12.2% increase, while weaker firms like China Evergrande face liquidation [2] - The average rental rate for retail properties under CapitaLand China Trust has decreased by 2.7%, yet occupancy remains high at 96.9%, indicating a scarcity of quality properties [2] - The industry is entering a new phase of competition focused on asset quality and operational capabilities, highlighting a "Matthew Effect" where the strong continue to thrive [2] Group 2: Outlet Market Developments - There is a surge in outlet development, with projects like the 3 billion yuan Panda-themed outlet in Chengdu and a 4 billion yuan "Outlet + Amusement Park" complex in Dongguan [3] - Vipshop's outlet same-store sales have seen double-digit growth, and the company is initiating a 3.48 billion yuan REIT fundraising, reflecting strong market confidence in this sector [3] - The trend indicates a rising concentration in the industry, with large-scale, themed, and experiential projects becoming the norm, putting pressure on smaller, homogeneous traditional outlets [3] Group 3: Retail Sector Transformation - Traditional retail is undergoing significant changes, with companies like Bubugao reporting a net profit of over 200 million yuan, largely due to adopting the "Fat Donglai model" which involves closing inefficient stores and revamping potential ones [4] - The first "Fat Donglai self-reform" store by Metro in Beijing has opened, confirming the replicability of this model [4] - In contrast, brands lacking differentiation and user experience, such as GU and Tsutaya Bookstore, are facing closures, indicating a shift towards user experience-centric retail [4] Group 4: Duty-Free Market Growth - The opening of the first city duty-free stores in Shenzhen and Guangzhou marks a significant development in the duty-free economy, following the implementation of new policies [5] - South Korea's announcement of visa-free entry for Chinese group tourists is expected to boost duty-free shopping, with Lotte Duty-Free strengthening partnerships with Chinese travel agencies [5] - City duty-free stores are anticipated to become a new engine for high-end consumption, creating new shopping experiences through a combination of "duty-free + consumption + experience" [5] Group 5: Consumer Spending Trends - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, with online retail sales increasing by 9.2% from January to July, accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [6][7] - Companies like 361 Degrees reported a 45% growth in e-commerce business, while Moutai's net profit increased by 8.89%, indicating resilience in high-end brands [6][7] - The restaurant sector saw only a 1.1% increase in revenue, suggesting consumers are becoming more cautious with service-related spending [6][7]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate sector is characterized as a "three low" industry (low price-to-book ratio, low positioning, low attention), suggesting that the valuation gap will eventually close [3][5] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing significant challenges, with broad infrastructure investment growth declining by 1.9% year-on-year in July 2025, marking the first negative growth in two years [6][9] - The construction investment growth rate in July 2025 was negative 5.1%, indicating a severe decline in local government-funded projects and highlighting fiscal difficulties [6][9] Key Points and Arguments - Real estate stocks are not to be viewed pessimistically; the market is in a phase of orderly expansion, and the sector's win rate is high due to its low valuation metrics [3][5] - In July 2025, real estate investment fell by 17.1%, while manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3%, both showing significant declines and marking a critical turning point [11] - The cash flow situation in the real estate market has improved compared to last year, with financing costs and completion rates showing strength, suggesting potential recovery in construction data in the second half of the year [2] - The introduction of special bonds and government debt in July has significantly increased, aiding in resolving real estate debt issues and enhancing macroeconomic stability [7] Notable Companies and Their Performance - Companies like Vanke, JinDi, Longfor, and New Town are identified as having high elasticity due to improved competitive dynamics [8] - Service-oriented companies such as Wanwu Cloud, China Resources Mixc, and China Overseas Property are also highlighted for their dividend performance in the mid-year reports [8] - Recommended companies in the consumer building materials sector include Oriental Yuhong and Henkel Group, which are expected to perform well due to improved market conditions [19] Risks and Future Outlook - The upcoming mid-year reports for construction companies are anticipated to be risky, with potential for lower-than-expected performance due to increased receivables and declining revenues [13][16] - Despite short-term risks, there is potential for a rebound in the fourth quarter, particularly for companies with mineral resource attributes, such as China Metallurgical Group and China Railway [14] - The cement industry is projected to face a demand decline of 4.5% for the year, with July's demand down by 5.6% [17] Additional Insights - The consumer building materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with improved fundamentals and reduced price wars, which may lead to enhanced profitability [18] - The western region's infrastructure projects are expected to significantly impact the building materials industry, with strong demand and funding availability [24] - Investors are advised to adjust their positions cautiously in anticipation of potential volatility following the mid-year report disclosures [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has likely bottomed out, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It anticipates that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with further policies expected to be introduced to support this trend. Core cities are expected to lead the recovery as they approach the bottom of the market [3][34]. - The report highlights significant policy changes, including the implementation of new regulations in Beijing that have led to a 20% increase in new home visits in areas outside the Fifth Ring Road. Additionally, various provinces are focusing on stabilizing the housing market and urban renewal tasks [3][34]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, new home transactions in 34 cities totaled 1.613 million square meters, a decrease of 9% week-on-week. The transaction volume for first and second-tier cities fell by 7.9%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline of 23.5% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in August (up to August 15) decreased by 19.1%, with first and second-tier cities down by 17.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 35.5% [3][7]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 999,000 square meters, a decrease of 3.6% week-on-week. Cumulatively, transactions in August were down 3% year-on-year [3][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, 76,000 square meters of new homes were launched in 15 cities, with a transaction volume of 65,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.86. The total available residential area in these cities was 89.15 million square meters, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% [3][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 12% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for the first seven months of 2025, totaling 535.8 billion yuan. Various provinces are implementing measures to stabilize the housing market and promote urban renewal [3][34]. - Specific policies include a reduction in the down payment ratio for housing loans in Suzhou to 15% and the introduction of new measures to support the conversion of commercial properties to residential use in Shanghai [3][34]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies reported their sales figures for the first seven months of 2025, with China Resources Land at 123.6 billion yuan (-11.8%) and China Jinmao at 61.8 billion yuan (+23.0%). Dragon Lake Group forecasted a 70% decline in core earnings [3][34]. - Financing activities included the issuance of bonds by various companies, such as a 1.5 billion yuan medium-term note by Dayuecheng Holdings and a total of 1.4 billion yuan in bonds by Yuexiu Property [3][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate industry, indicating a cautious but potential investment opportunity as the sector adjusts to current market conditions [3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a "W-shaped" bottoming process, with new construction expected to show a trend of rising and then falling in the second half of the year, with the peak likely approaching zero growth [2][39]. - The overall development investment is under pressure, with July's investment amount showing a year-on-year decline of 17.0%, reflecting weaker construction intensity due to declining sales market heat [2][38]. - The funding chain index for the real estate sector has slightly improved but remains at historically low levels, indicating potential future improvements in the financial situation of some companies [2][10]. Summary by Sections Sales and Construction Data - In July, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate for new housing sales area was -7.8%, continuing a trend of low market activity since May [13][14]. - The total sales area for the first seven months of 2025 was 515.6 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.0% [9][14]. - The new construction area in July saw a year-on-year decline of 15.4%, with a cumulative decline of 19.4% for the first seven months [2][39]. Price Trends - The new home price index for 70 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 0.31% in July, with significant drops in second-tier cities [10][11]. - The average price of new homes in July was 9,613 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the narrowing gap between net rental yields and mortgage rates is a key observation point for total demand in both new and second-hand housing markets [37]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable cash flow generation capabilities, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments, as potential investment opportunities [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group anticipates a significant decline of approximately 70% in core profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate sector affecting the gross profit margin of its development business [1] Company Summary - Longfor Group's announcement highlights that despite the pressure on the gross profit margin from development business, it remains one of the few companies in the industry that continues to maintain positive profitability [1] - The company reported that its operational business continues to grow, with positive operating cash flow including capital expenditures, and is actively reducing its debt scale while optimizing its debt structure [1] Industry Summary - The real estate industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with many listed property companies releasing their mid-year performance forecasts for 2025, indicating that losses remain the mainstream trend for the first half of the year [1] - According to Wind data, as of August 15, 74 property companies have issued performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 46 companies expected to report losses, accounting for over 60% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group anticipates a significant decline of approximately 70% in core profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a decrease in gross profit margin from real estate development amid a downturn in the industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Longfor Group's announcement highlights that despite the pressure on development business profitability, the operational business continues to show growth [1] - The company reported positive operating cash flow, including capital expenditures, and is actively reducing its debt scale while optimizing its debt structure [1] - Longfor Group remains one of the few companies in the industry that continues to maintain positive profitability despite the challenges faced [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The broader real estate industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with many listed property companies expected to report losses for the first half of 2025 [1] - As of August 15, 2023, 74 property companies have released their performance forecasts, with 46 companies, accounting for over 60%, expected to report losses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group anticipates a significant decline of approximately 70% in core profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a decrease in gross profit margin from real estate development amid industry downturn [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Longfor Group's operating revenue reached approximately 16.47 billion yuan (including tax) by the end of July 2025, with operational business revenue at about 8.76 billion yuan and service business revenue at around 7.71 billion yuan [2] - Despite the pressure on development business profitability, Longfor Group remains one of the few companies in the industry still achieving positive earnings [1][2] - The company has successfully reduced its debt scale and optimized its debt structure, with positive operating cash flow including capital expenditures [2] Group 2: Industry Context - As of August 15, 2025, over 60% of the 74 listed real estate companies that released performance forecasts are expected to report losses, continuing the trend from the previous year [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that, despite some alleviation of liquidity risks, the decline in profit margins for real estate development will lead to disappointing performance for Chinese developers in the first half of the year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - DBS Bank projects that Longfor's strategy of maintaining cash flow and reducing inventory will help lower debt, with potential land investments resuming in early 2026, which could accelerate the recovery of profit margins in real estate development [3] - Longfor Group emphasizes a customer-centric approach to enhance product and service capabilities, aiming for steady growth in development, operational, and service businesses to ensure sustainable development through positive operating cash flow [3]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group (00960) announced a significant decline in profit expectations for the six months ending June 30, 2025, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate industry affecting the gross profit margin of its property development business [1] Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2024, the profit attributable to the company's owners is reported at RMB 5.87 billion, while the expected profit for the same period in 2025 is projected to decline by approximately 45% [1] - The core profit, excluding the impact of fair value changes in investment properties and other derivative financial instruments, is RMB 4.75 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2024, with an anticipated decline of around 70% for the same period in 2025 [1] Operational Insights - The group's operational and service businesses continue to grow, contributing stable profits [1] - The operating cash flow, including capital expenditures, remains positive, and the company is steadily reducing its debt levels while optimizing its debt structure [1] - The company has fulfilled all debt obligations due in 2025 as of the announcement date [1] Strategic Focus - Moving forward, the company aims to enhance product and service capabilities centered around customer needs, actively promote inventory reduction in development business, and ensure steady growth in operational and service sectors [1] - The focus is on sustainable development across various business channels driven by positive operating cash flow [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group (00960) announced a significant decline in profit expectations for the upcoming fiscal periods, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate industry affecting its development business margins [1] Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2024, the profit attributable to the company's owners is reported at RMB 5.87 billion, with an expected decline of approximately 45% for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The core profit, excluding the impact of fair value changes from investment properties and other derivative financial instruments, is RMB 4.75 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2024, with an anticipated decline of around 70% for the same period in 2025 [1] Business Operations - The group's operational and service businesses continue to grow, contributing stable profits to the overall performance [1] - The operating cash flow, including capital expenditures, remains positive, and the company is steadily reducing its debt levels while optimizing its debt structure [1] Debt Management - The company is committed to fulfilling all debt obligations either ahead of schedule or on time, having fully repaid domestic credit bonds due within 2025 as of the announcement date [1] Future Strategy - Looking ahead, the company will focus on enhancing customer-centric product and service capabilities, actively promoting inventory reduction in development business, and ensuring steady growth in operational and service sectors to drive sustainable development across all business lines through positive operating cash flow [1]

龍湖集團控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限責任公司） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴 該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED （股份代號：960） 內幕消息－盈利警告 此 乃 龍 湖 集 團 控 股 有 限 公 司（「本公司」，連 同 其 附 屬 公 司 統 稱「本集團」）根 據 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 證 券 上 市 規 則（「上市規則」）第13.09條及香港法例第571章《證 券 及 期 貨 條 例》第XIVA部內幕消 息 條 文（定 義 見 上 市 規 則）而 作 出 的 公 告。 本 公 司 董 事 會（「董事會」）謹 此 知 會 本 公 司 股 東 及 潛 在 投 資 者，經 初 步 審 閱 本 集 團 截 至2025年6月 30日止六個月之未經審核綜合管理帳目及根據本公司現時可得的資料，對比截至2024年6月30日 止六個月本公司擁有人應佔溢利人民幣58.7億元，截至2025 ...