快手 20251119 摘要 奇秀科技第三季度总收入同比增长 14.2%至 356 亿人民币，核心商业 业务收入增长 19.2%，电商 GMV 同比增长 15.2%至 3,850 亿人民币， 主要通过商家计划实现，而非流量营销，在线营销服务收入同比增长 14%至 201 亿人民币，得益于 AI 技术优化。 奇秀科技在 AI 技术方面取得显著进展，Clean AI 2.5 模型被评为全球 领先的文本到视频和图像到视频模型，创作者每视频成本降低近 30%。 引入基于生成式强化学习的竞价模型，提升中小企业竞价能力，AIGC 营销素材驱动的在线营销服务总支出超过 30 亿人民币。 触宝 APP 平均日活跃用户达到 4.16 亿，美国地区达到 7.31 亿，总用户 时间同比增长 3.6%。公司优化用户增长策略，降低新用户获取成本， 并不断升级私信和社交互动功能，提高消息渗透率。 奇秀科技通过多样化渠道吸引新商家入驻电商平台，平均每月活跃商家 数量持续增长，每家商家使用的三级产品类别数量同比增长近 30%。推 出金融举措，支持商家建立优质内容和优质产品并驾齐驱的双引擎增长。 Q&A 奇秀科技在 2025 年第三季度的财务 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou-W (01024) reported strong Q3 2025 earnings, leading to a stock price increase of over 4% and a current trading price of 65.45 HKD, with a transaction volume of 790 million HKD [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 35.554 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [1] - Gross profit reached 19.434 billion CNY, up 14.9% year-on-year [1] - Operating profit was 5.299 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 69.9% year-on-year [1] - Net profit for the period was 4.489 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [1] - Adjusted net profit amounted to 4.986 billion CNY, up 26.3% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was 7.653 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 37.2% [1] User Engagement - The average daily active users of the Kuaishou app exceeded 416 million, marking a historical high for three consecutive quarters [1] AI Strategy and Investment - The company is committed to increasing investments in AI, with expectations of a mid-to-high double-digit percentage increase in overall capital expenditures (Capex) for 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - The revenue from the Keling AI business is projected to reach approximately 140 million USD for the full year 2025, surpassing the initial target of 60 million USD [1]

Core Insights - Kuaishou-W (01024) shares rose over 4% post-earnings report, currently trading at 65.45 HKD with a transaction volume of 790 million HKD [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Kuaishou reported revenue of 35.554 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [1] - Gross profit reached 19.434 billion CNY, up 14.9% year-on-year [1] - Operating profit was 5.299 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 69.9% year-on-year [1] - Net profit for the period was 4.489 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [1] - Adjusted net profit amounted to 4.986 billion CNY, up 26.3% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was 7.653 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 37.2% [1] User Engagement - The average daily active users of the Kuaishou app exceeded 416 million, marking a historical high for three consecutive quarters [1] Strategic Investments - The company is committed to increasing investments in AI technology, which is enhancing both content and commercial ecosystems [1] - CFO Jin Bing indicated that the company will continue to increase AI-related expenditures, expecting a mid-to-high double-digit percentage growth in overall Capex for 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - The revenue from Kuaishou's AI business, Keling AI, is projected to reach approximately 140 million USD for the full year 2025, surpassing the initial target of 60 million USD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology stocks experienced a broad rally, with the Hang Seng Technology Index opening up by 0.7% on November 20, 2023 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Baidu Group (SW) saw an increase of 3.24%, with a year-to-date gain of 38.81% and a total market capitalization of 315.72 billion [2] - Hua Hong Semiconductor rose by 3.17%, marking a significant year-to-date increase of 283.37%, with a market cap of 144.08 billion [2] - ASMPT increased by 2.93%, with a year-to-date gain of 3.94% and a market cap of 32.17 billion [2] - Kuaishou (W) rose by 2.52%, with a year-to-date increase of 59.21% and a market cap of 281.44 billion [2] - Lenovo Group increased by 2.49%, with a year-to-date gain of 0.97% and a market cap of 122.43 billion [2] - BYD Electronics rose by 2.19%, but has a year-to-date decline of 18.95%, with a market cap of 75.66 billion [2] - SMIC (中芯国际) increased by 2.19%, with a year-to-date gain of 134.59% and a market cap of 596.81 billion [2] - Horizon Robotics (W) saw an increase of 1.87%, with a year-to-date gain of 111.94% and a market cap of 111.79 billion [2] - Tongcheng Travel rose by 1.78%, with a year-to-date increase of 20.53% and a market cap of 51.02 billion [2] - JD Health increased by 1.64%, with a year-to-date gain of 142.70% and a market cap of 218.34 billion [2] - Midea Group rose by 1.56%, with a year-to-date increase of 23.19% and a market cap of 673.98 billion [2] - SenseTime (W) increased by 1.43%, with a year-to-date gain of 42.95% and a market cap of 82.38 billion [2] - Alibaba (W) rose by 1.21%, with a year-to-date increase of 96.77% and a market cap of 3 trillion [2] - Meituan (W) saw a smaller increase of 0.97%, with a year-to-date decline of 34.77% and a market cap of 604.73 billion [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 89.40, up from the previous HKD 85.28 [7][5][23]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of 13% year-on-year to RMB 35.6 billion, surpassing consensus estimates by 1% [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 increased by 26% year-on-year to RMB 5 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.3% [1]. - The management anticipates that the revenue for the company's AI product, 可灵, could reach USD 1.4 billion by 2025 [1]. - The report highlights a slowdown in e-commerce monetization, despite a strong performance in advertising and live streaming [1][5]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Revenue for Q3 was RMB 35.6 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 0.3 percentage points to 54.7% [1]. - Adjusted net profit rose 26% year-on-year to RMB 5 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.3% [1]. - Revenue breakdown: live streaming, advertising, and e-commerce grew by 3%, 14%, and 41% respectively [1]. Advertising and E-commerce - Q3 advertising revenue increased by 14%, slightly above expectations, with a 16% growth when excluding overseas revenue [3]. - E-commerce and other revenues accelerated by 41% year-on-year, with GMV growth of 15% [4]. - The company invested RMB 18 billion in platform traffic incentives during the Double 11 shopping festival, which met expectations [4]. Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with a slight decrease of 0.6% for 2025 due to slowing e-commerce consumption, while 2026-2027 forecasts were increased due to AI-driven advertising growth [5][19]. - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 20.6 billion, RMB 22.1 billion, and RMB 25.8 billion respectively [5][19]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a per-share value of HKD 89.40, reflecting the potential for increased revenue contributions from the AI product [23][24]. - The valuation for the advertising business is set at HKD 68.96 per share, while e-commerce and live streaming are valued at HKD 11.41 and HKD 9.02 per share respectively [23].

｜2025年11月20日星期四｜ 11月19日，京东折扣超市宿豫庐山城市之家店宣布将于11月26日正式开业。新店延续 "大店型、多 SKU" 模式，营业面积超 5000平方米，首次采用双层卖场设计。 NO.1 可灵AI第三季度营收超3亿元 点评：此前京东折扣超市在宿迁"四店同开"，作为京东在江苏宿迁布局的又一大型折扣业态，该店落成 后将实现宿迁"三县两区"全域覆盖。 11月19日，快手公布了2025年第三季度财报。今年第三季度，可灵AI营收超3亿元。快手第三季度总营 收同比增长14.2%至356亿元，经调整净利润同比增长26.3%至50亿元。电商业务方面，第三季度快手电 商GMV（商品交易总额）同比增长15.2%至3850亿元。 点评：闪送第三季度营收同比下降和订单量环比减少或受到市场竞争与季节性因素的影响。不过，净利 润的增长反映出闪送在成本控制和运营效率上的成效。 NO.3 京东折扣超市在宿迁再开一店 点评：可灵AI的营收增长反映出快手在AI商业化方面的新进展。电商业务的增长，在一定程度上也显 示出快手在直播带货和内容电商领域的竞争力加强。 NO.2闪送第三季度营收10.05亿元 11月19日，闪送发布了 ...

Industry News - CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities announced a major asset restructuring plan, with CICC planning to absorb Dongxing and Xinda through a share exchange, leading to a trading suspension [4] - The price of Flash memory wafers has increased significantly, with the highest rise reaching 38.46% as of November 19 [5] - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a 50% increase in memory prices by the second quarter of 2026 due to critical chip shortages [6] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Xinjiang government issued a plan to modernize agricultural facilities, aiming to upgrade 30,000 acres by the end of 2028 [4] Company News - Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $57.01 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, and provided a Q4 revenue outlook of approximately $65 billion, exceeding market expectations [16] - Kuaishou Technology's Q3 revenue reached 35.55 billion yuan, a 14.2% year-over-year increase, with adjusted net profit growing by 26.3% [7] - Huaneng Group announced a collaboration with a major automotive manufacturer for a smart cockpit project worth 4.2 billion yuan [10] - Baidu disclosed its AI business revenue for Q3, showing over 50% growth, with AI cloud revenue increasing by 33% [18]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,824.00, down by 6.65 points or 0.03% as of November 19, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index's highest price during the day was 25,935.21, while the lowest was 25,751.31, with a trading volume of 43.34 million shares [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 107.800, down by HKD 1.800 or 1.64% compared to the previous close [2][3] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 622.500, down by HKD 1.000 or 0.16% [3] - Alibaba Group (ADR) saw an increase, closing at HKD 156.400, up by HKD 1.800 or 1.16% [3] - Xiaomi Group closed at HKD 38.820, down by HKD 1.960 or 4.81% [3] - AIA Group closed at HKD 77.950, down by HKD 0.600 or 0.76% [3] Stock Price Changes - The stock prices of major companies showed mixed results, with some experiencing declines while others saw slight increases [2][3] - Notable declines included Kuaishou Technology, which closed at HKD 63.500, down by HKD 1.150 or 1.78% [3] - Ctrip Group saw an increase, closing at HKD 574.500, up by HKD 10.000 or 1.77% [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline of 0.38% after a narrow consolidation period, with the Hang Seng Technology sector leading the drop [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index opened high but fell throughout the day, closing down 0.66%. Notable declines included Xiaomi Group down 4.81%, Kuaishou down 1.78%, and SMIC down 1.35% [3] - The banking sector also saw a decline, closing down 0.44%, with HSBC Holdings down 1.64%, Standard Chartered down 1.43%, and Dah Sing Bank down 1.33% [3] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Internet sector showed relative resilience, closing flat after opening high and then declining. Notable movements included Horizon Robotics down 1.83%, while Alibaba managed to rise 1.16% [3] - Other companies like JD Group and Meituan also experienced slight declines, with their stock prices falling by over 1% [3]

Core Insights - Kuaishou Technology reported a revenue of 103.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with an adjusted net profit of 15.18 billion yuan, up 16.7% [2] - In Q3 2025, Kuaishou achieved a revenue of 35.55 billion yuan, a 14.2% increase year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 4.99 billion yuan, reflecting a 26.3% growth [2] - The CEO emphasized the integration of AI capabilities across various business scenarios, aiming for higher operational efficiency and long-term value creation for shareholders [2] Business Performance - Online marketing services, Kuaishou's main business, generated 20.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 14% year-on-year increase [3] - The UniversalAuto X (UAX) solution achieved over 70% penetration in external marketing, while internal marketing consumption from site-wide promotion products exceeded 65% [3] - Average daily active users reached 416 million, and monthly active users were 731 million, with daily usage time averaging 134.1 minutes, a 3.6% increase year-on-year [3] Live Streaming and E-commerce - Live streaming revenue grew by 2.5% year-on-year to 9.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a significant increase in signed guilds and streamers [3] - E-commerce GMV reached 385 billion yuan, up 15.2% year-on-year, with over 32% of GMV coming from general merchandise e-commerce [4] AI Business Development - Kuaishou launched the Keling AI 2.5 Turbo model, enhancing text response and dynamic effects, with over 45 million global users and more than 2 billion videos generated [6] - The AI model reduced video generation costs by nearly 30%, contributing over 300 million yuan in revenue for Q3 2025 [6] - The application of OneRec in online marketing services improved revenue by approximately 4% to 5% in Q3 2025 [6][7] Strategic Outlook - Kuaishou's AI business is positioned as a key variable in transforming its commercial engine, with a focus on reducing inference costs and expanding enterprise services [7] - The integration of AI into marketing and e-commerce is expected to drive future growth, establishing a second growth curve for the company [7]