Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing significant activity with multiple leading companies going public, particularly highlighting the impressive performance of Gu Ming, which has seen its stock price surge since its listing [1][2]. Company Overview - Gu Ming is a rapidly growing Chinese beverage company, holding a 17.7% market share as the largest mass-market fresh tea beverage brand in China by GMV in 2023 [2]. - The company operates a light-asset franchise model, with approximately 99.9% of its GMV coming from franchise stores, managing only 7 directly operated stores [2][6]. - As of the end of 2024, Gu Ming has opened 9,914 stores across 17 provinces, primarily in East and South China, and has not yet expanded internationally [2]. Business Strategy - Gu Ming employs a "regional encryption" strategy, expanding into neighboring provinces only after surpassing 500 stores in a single province, with eight provinces contributing 83% of GMV [2]. - The company focuses on lower-tier cities, with 51% of its stores located in tier-three cities and below, and 41% of its stores in rural areas, the highest among the top five mass-market fresh tea brands in China [3][6]. Financial Performance - Gu Ming's revenue has shown steady growth, with figures of 4.38 billion, 5.56 billion, 7.68 billion, and 8.79 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, although the growth rate has slowed [6]. - The company's gross margin was 30.6% in 2024, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased support for franchisee profitability [7]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 grew by 5.7% to 1.542 billion yuan, supported by the franchise model, improved supply chain efficiency, and effective cost control [8]. Competitive Landscape - The new tea beverage industry is facing intense competition, with market growth rates expected to decline from 44.3% in 2023 to 12.4% by 2025, and over 20,000 store closures anticipated in 2024 [9]. - Gu Ming acknowledges fierce competition in product development, quality, pricing, and customer experience, with challenges in differentiating products amid a homogenized market [9][10]. Future Outlook - Gu Ming plans to enhance its marketing efforts and increase capital investment in response to intensified competition, with a sales expense ratio rising to 5.5% in 2024 [10]. - The company aims to focus on dine-in services and introduce student discount cards to boost customer retention, while also expanding its product offerings to include coffee and baked goods [10]. - Maintaining long-term competitive advantages and addressing product differentiation will be critical challenges for Gu Ming moving forward [11].

Financial Performance - In the fiscal year 2024, Guming Holdings Limited reported revenue of RMB 8.79 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5%[8] - The net profit for 2024 increased by 36.2% to RMB 1.49 billion, up from RMB 1.10 billion in 2023[8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 30.6%, slightly down from 31.3% in 2023[13] - The adjusted profit margin (non-IFRS measure) for 2024 was 17.5%, down from 19.0% in 2023[13] - Revenue increased by 14.5% from RMB 7.6757 billion for the year ended December 31, 2023, to RMB 8.7914 billion for the year ended December 31, 2024[44] - The company's merchandise sales revenue rose by 13.6% from RMB 5.7783 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.5627 billion in 2024, driven by the expansion of the store network and increased demand[44] - Equipment sales revenue increased by 26.8% from RMB 366.4 million in 2023 to RMB 464.8 million in 2024, primarily due to increased sales of coffee machines[44] - Net profit grew by 36.2% from RMB 1.0964 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 1.4932 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024[55] - Adjusted profit increased by 5.7% from RMB 1.459 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 1.542 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024, with a decrease in adjusted profit margin from 19.0% to 17.5%[59] - Adjusted EBITDA rose from RMB 1.894 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 1.932 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024[61] Store Network Expansion - The company expanded its store network to a total of 9,914 locations, with a net increase of 913 stores, reflecting a growth rate of 10.1%[8] - As of December 31, 2024, the company's store network expanded to 9,914 stores, a 10.1% increase from 9,001 stores as of December 31, 2023[18] - The number of stores in second-tier and below cities accounted for 80% of the total store count as of December 31, 2024, up from 79% in 2023[22] - The company experienced a net increase of 254 franchisees, ending 2024 with 4,868 franchisees compared to 4,614 in 2023[26] - The company closed 674 stores in 2024, a significant increase from 265 closures in 2023, due to market slowdown and intensified competition[23] - The company aims to continue expanding its store network and enhancing operational efficiency in the upcoming years[11] - The company plans to continue expanding its store network in 17 provinces and is exploring opportunities in overseas markets[36] - The company has adopted a unique regional encryption strategy for store expansion, focusing resources on building a dense network of stores in targeted provinces[82] Operational Efficiency and Costs - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and business performance in existing stores while slowing down the opening of new stores[23] - The average single-store GMV decreased to RMB 2,360.7 thousand in 2024 from RMB 2,466.4 thousand in 2023[24] - The company's sales cost increased by 15.8% from RMB 5.2723 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 6.1039 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024[46] - Selling and distribution expenses surged by 42.4% from RMB 336.6 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 479.4 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[49] - Administrative expenses rose by 10.1% from RMB 282.8 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 311.4 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[50] - R&D expenses increased by 17.0% from RMB 198.7 million for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 232.6 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[51] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets of the company as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 6.87 billion, an increase from RMB 5.15 billion in 2023[15] - The total liabilities increased to RMB 4.76 billion in 2024 from RMB 4.54 billion in 2023[15] - The equity total reached RMB 2.11 billion, a significant improvement from RMB 615.5 million in 2023[15] - Inventory rose by 11.7% from RMB 881.1 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 984.2 million as of December 31, 2024, aligning with revenue growth[65] - Trade payables increased from RMB 601.3 million to RMB 697.9 million, attributed to higher procurement amounts, with turnover days rising from 34 to 39 days[69] - The capital debt ratio improved to 23.0% as of December 31, 2024, down from 26.8% as of December 31, 2023[73] Market and Competition - The company is facing significant competition in the ready-to-drink tea market, which may impact market share and profitability if not effectively managed[84] - The overall industry slowdown and intensified competition have led to a deceleration in new store openings and a decline in operational metrics for some stores[83] - The company anticipates stable growth in China's economy and consumer spending, with the ready-to-drink tea market expected to continue expanding in the medium to long term[84] Franchisee Management - The company provides competitive pricing for quality raw materials and covers most warehousing and logistics costs to optimize franchisee profitability[95] - Franchisee management is crucial, as the success and quality of stores largely depend on franchisees' ability to operate according to company standards[96] - The company has established a franchisee committee, the first in the fresh tea beverage industry, to foster close relationships and provide feedback from franchisees[95] - The company actively monitors franchisee operations, including service quality and compliance with quality control and food safety standards, to maintain brand reputation[94] - The company has held an annual national franchisee conference for 11 consecutive years to promote transparent communication and collaboration[95] Product Development and Quality Control - Guming launched over 100 new products in 2024, enhancing its product competitiveness[9] - The introduction of fresh fruit-based tea drinks aims to align with consumer trends towards fresh ingredients, alongside low-sugar options for health-conscious consumers[86] - The company plans to expand its ready-to-drink coffee category to capture more cross-selling opportunities and diversify consumer demand[87] - Strict quality control systems are implemented to mitigate product safety and quality risks across all operational stages, from sourcing to delivery[90] - The effectiveness of the quality control system is critical and depends on various factors, including compliance by franchisees and suppliers[88] Employee Management - As of December 31, 2024, the company employed 2,726 full-time employees, an increase from 2,437 employees as of December 31, 2023[160] - Employee benefit expenses, including salaries and pension contributions, are approximately RMB 700.1 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[160] - The company provides competitive salaries and benefits to attract and retain suitable personnel, with performance bonuses as part of the incentive mechanism[161] - The company encourages career development opportunities for employees, offering training and professional development programs[161] Shareholder Information - The total issued shares of the company as of the last practicable date is 2,378,185,860 shares[166] - Major shareholders collectively hold 1,730,697,672 shares, representing approximately 72.77% of the total issued shares of 2,378,185,860[173] - The company has established a post-IPO share plan approved by shareholders on January 27, 2025, aimed at aligning the interests of selected participants with the company's and shareholders' overall interests[161] Risk Management - The group faced significant risks and uncertainties in the business environment, actively conducting risk assessments to mitigate potential impacts on financial performance[116] - The company has no significant contingent liabilities as of December 31, 2024[75]

Group 1 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.07%, gaining 16 points to close at 21,997 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.50% [1] - Yao Cai Securities surged by 66% as it plans to acquire Ant Group at a premium of approximately 17.6% [1] - Jin Mao Yin Mao saw a 9.6% increase in share price, with a name change to "Zhu Feng Gold" effective tomorrow, as institutions believe its market value does not reflect the potential for upstream business expansion [1] - Pop Mart's shares rose over 11%, driven by the Labubu phenomenon, which helped its official app reach the top of the US App Store shopping chart [1] - Bluko's stock increased by over 7%, with institutions indicating that the company's new product rhythm is accelerating, leading to high growth expectations [1] - Gu Ming's share price rose over 9%, reaching a new historical high, with an increase of more than 1.4 times from its IPO price [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum's shares rose over 4%, reporting a 90% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first quarter, and plans to acquire Lumina Gold [1] - Green Power Environmental's shares once rose by 9%, with a 33.21% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first quarter, reaching 185 million yuan [1] - Rongchang Bio's shares rose over 4% ahead of its performance report, with multiple results selected for the 2025 ASCO oral presentation, and positive Phase III data for Taitasip [1] - Real estate stocks collectively declined, with institutions stating that Q2 real estate policies are leaning towards stabilization rather than strong stimulus, with Jin Hui Holdings down 5% and Greentown China down 3% [1] Group 2 - China Shenhua's shares fell by 3.57% post-earnings, with coal business volume and price declining, resulting in an 18% year-on-year drop in net profit for the period [2] - BYD Electronics' shares dropped by 7% after earnings, with a slight year-on-year increase in revenue and profit, and changes in iPhone shipment structure potentially affecting its mid-frame business [2] Group 3 - Chifeng Gold's shares fell by 3.66% post-earnings, but the stock has still seen a cumulative increase of nearly 60% this month, with net profit for the first quarter increasing by over 140% due to rising gold prices [3]

本期带来2025年一季度IPO报告，港主板IPO募资金额最多，境外上市备案持续推进。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 以下文章来源于超越 J Curve ，作者超越J曲线 超越 J Curve . 用数据延伸你的阅读 核心发现 作者丨 投中研究院 来源丨 超越 J Curve | 机构 | 上市数量 | 科创板数量 | | 参投项目 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CPE源峰 | 3 | 1 | 钓威电子 | 赛分科技 | 蜜雪集团 | | 君联资本 | 3 | 1 | 布鲁可 | 兴福电子 | 汉朔科技 | | 中金资本 | 3 | 1 | 脑动极光 | 兴福电子 | 汉朔科技 | | 红杉中国 | 3 | O | 古著 | 找钢集团 | 维异药业 | | 海通开元 | 2 | 2 | 兴福电子 | 胜科纳米 | | | 丰年资本 | 2 | 1 | 矽电股份 | 胜科纳米 | | | 复星创富 | 2 | 1 | 赛分科技 | 恒鑫生活 | | | 高瓴 | 2 | 1 | 赛分科技 | 蜜雪集团 | | | IDG资本 | 2 | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between the tea brand Gu Ming and the popular game IP "崩坏：星穹铁道" (Honkai: Star Rail) has led to significant consumer interest and controversy due to insufficient stock and overwhelming demand, highlighting the challenges of managing high-profile collaborations in the beverage industry [2][3][5]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - Gu Ming launched its collaboration with "崩铁" on April 18, 2024, offering limited-edition drinks and merchandise, which quickly sold out due to high demand, with 1.2 million people reportedly queuing for the purchase [5][8]. - The collaboration included popular drink flavors and exclusive merchandise such as stickers and badges, which attracted significant attention from fans [5][6]. - Despite previous successful collaborations with other IPs, this particular launch faced criticism for inadequate preparation and stock levels, leading to consumer dissatisfaction [3][6]. Group 2: Sales and Financial Impact - The overwhelming demand resulted in an estimated sales figure of at least 20 million yuan on the first day, assuming each of the 1.2 million queuing customers purchased one drink at a minimum price of 16.9 yuan [8]. - Gu Ming's marketing expenses have increased significantly, with sales and distribution costs rising from 3.366 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.794 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting the costs associated with frequent collaborations [9]. - The tea industry is experiencing heightened competition, prompting brands to adjust pricing strategies, with Gu Ming and others lowering entry-level product prices to attract consumers [11][12]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The collaboration reflects a broader trend in the tea and beverage industry where brands are increasingly leveraging popular IPs to drive sales and brand awareness [9][10]. - However, the frequency of collaborations may lead to consumer fatigue, as seen in the case of another brand, which reported a decline in revenue despite increased marketing spending [9][10]. - The industry is shifting focus towards lower-tier markets, with brands exploring opportunities in smaller towns, indicating a strategic pivot in response to competitive pressures [12].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, targeting a price of HK$24.20 from the current price of HK$17.70 [1]. Core Insights - Guming Holdings is positioned as a leading 4A (Available, Adorable, Affordable, Addicted) freshly-made beverage brand in China, focusing on the growing demand for fresh, convenient, and cost-effective drinks, particularly in lower-tier cities [1][6]. - The company has established a robust supply chain and utilizes digitalization to enhance operational efficiency, aiming for steady national expansion [3][6]. - Guming is the second-largest freshly-made tea beverage brand in China by GMV, holding a market share of 9.1%, and the largest in the mass market segment with a 17.7% share [1][6]. Company Overview - Guming Holdings operates a network of 9,914 stores across 17 provinces in China, with a significant presence in lower-tier cities, where 41% of its stores are located in rural areas [1][6][29]. - The company has a strong financial outlook, with projected revenues of RMB 10.84 billion, RMB 12.84 billion, and RMB 14.42 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 23%, 18%, and 12% [1][4]. - Guming's net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.88 billion, RMB 2.19 billion, and RMB 2.38 billion over the same period, with a diluted EPS forecasted to grow from RMB 0.90 in 2025 to RMB 1.14 in 2027 [1][4]. Industry Insights - The freshly-made beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.5% from 2018 to 2023, significantly outpacing the overall beverage market's growth of 9.4% [2][13]. - The market for freshly-made beverages is projected to reach RMB 11,634 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028 [13]. - Freshly-made tea and coffee dominate the market, with their combined market size expected to grow substantially, reflecting changing consumer preferences towards higher quality and fresh products [13][19].

Group 1 - Hong Kong consumer stocks strengthened in the afternoon, with Mixue Group (02097.HK) rising over 7% to reach a new high [1] - Gu Ming (01364.HK) increased by more than 8%, contributing to the overall positive trend in the sector [1] - Other companies such as Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) and Cha Baidao (02555.HK) also experienced gains [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the IPO market, with a notable increase in the number of IPOs and total fundraising amounts compared to previous periods [11][34]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, a total of 63 Chinese companies successfully completed IPOs across A-shares, Hong Kong, and US markets, representing an 18.87% year-on-year increase in IPO numbers and a 13.57% increase in total fundraising to 31.8 billion yuan [11][20][34]. - The report highlights that the advanced manufacturing sector performed the best in terms of IPO fundraising, with a total of 63.04 billion yuan raised, accounting for 55.91% of the total fundraising across all sectors [84][88]. - The report notes that the VC/PE institutions had a penetration rate of 52.38% in the IPO market, with 33 companies having VC/PE backgrounds successfully listed [12][64][73]. Summary by Sections IPO Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the total fundraising from IPOs reached 31.8 billion yuan, with the highest fundraising amounts coming from the Hong Kong market, which raised 13.5 billion yuan [11][20][54]. - The number of IPOs in the US market remained stable, with 22 companies going public, marking an 83.33% year-on-year increase [60][62]. Sector Analysis - The advanced manufacturing sector led the IPO market with 14 companies listed, followed by the electronic information sector with 11 companies [84][88]. - The electronic information sector reported a significant exit return of 102.83 billion yuan, the highest among all sectors [68][71]. Regional Analysis - Zhejiang province topped the list with 13 IPOs, raising 69.54 billion yuan, which accounted for 21.87% of the total fundraising in Q1 2025 [94][99]. - The report indicates that the IPO performance in Zhejiang has doubled compared to the same period last year [99]. Notable IPO Cases - The top five fundraising companies included Mixue Group, Chifeng Gold, and Gu Ming, with Mixue Group raising 3.187 billion yuan, the highest in the quarter [106][110]. - The report emphasizes that the first-day performance of IPOs was strong, with 25.4% of companies seeing their closing prices more than double on the first day [42][60]. Policy and Market Trends - The report discusses the resumption of the A-share IPO cycle and the approval of new liquidity regulations in the US market, which are expected to enhance the IPO environment [34][30]. - It also highlights ongoing support for traditional industries in the Hong Kong market, which continues to attract consumer brand listings [54][60].

Core Viewpoint - Shenyin Wanguo has initiated coverage on Gu Ming (01364) with a "buy" rating, highlighting its valuation potential compared to other players in the market, particularly its cold chain supply chain advantages and expansion opportunities in untapped provinces [1] Group 1: Market Position and Expansion Potential - Gu Ming is the leading brand in China's ready-to-drink tea market by sales and store count, and the second-largest overall in the ready-to-drink tea segment [2] - The company has a significant presence in lower-tier cities, with 80% of its stores located in second-tier cities and below, and 41% in townships, indicating strong market penetration in these areas [2] - There is potential for further expansion, with 14 provinces in China yet to be tapped, which could drive future store openings [1][2] Group 2: Product Innovation and R&D - Gu Ming emphasizes rapid product innovation, launching numerous new products annually, with a high success rate; two to three new products have consistently been among the top ten bestsellers over the past three years [3] - The company has recently introduced fruit and vegetable juice products and is expanding into coffee, with over 5,000 stores already equipped with coffee machines, which is expected to contribute 20% of revenue in the long term [3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Logistics - Gu Ming boasts the largest cold chain supply chain in the ready-to-drink tea industry in China, providing frequent deliveries of fresh ingredients to lower-tier cities, which is a competitive advantage over other brands [4] - In 2023, the total value of cold chain deliveries completed by Gu Ming exceeded 4 billion yuan, leading the industry [4] Group 4: Franchise Model and Profitability - The average profit per store for Gu Ming's franchisees reached 376,000 yuan in 2023, with a profit margin of 20.2%, significantly higher than the market average of below 15% [5] - A strong franchisee retention rate is evident, with 71% of franchisees operating two or more stores, indicating high franchisee satisfaction and profitability [5] Group 5: Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 17% year-on-year to 10.3 billion yuan in 2025, driven by the opening of 2,000 new franchise stores, bringing the total to 11,914 stores [6] - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase by 23% year-on-year to 1.9 billion yuan, with a net profit margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 19% [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11][14] Core Insights - The company is the largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand in China, with a significant presence in lower-tier cities and towns, holding a market share of 17.7% in the mid-priced segment [5][29][32] - Strong product innovation capabilities are highlighted, with a high repurchase rate of 53% and a successful track record of new product launches [7][54][45] - The company operates the largest cold-chain supply chain in the industry, enabling efficient delivery of fresh ingredients to stores [8][59] - Franchisee profitability is robust, with an average operating profit of RMB 376,000 per store and a profit margin of 20.2% [9][10] - Revenue is projected to grow by 17% year-on-year to RMB 10.3 billion in 2025, driven by the opening of 2,000 new stores [10][15] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company from 2023 to 2027 show significant growth, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 1.9 billion in 2025, a 23% increase year-on-year [4][10][15] - The company’s current P/E ratio is 19x for 2025, with a target price set at HK$21.2, indicating a potential upside of 32% [11][14] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong market presence in key provinces, achieving critical mass in store networks and leading market share in freshly-made tea drinks [5][56] - The franchise model is a key component of the business strategy, contributing significantly to revenue and profitability [39][40] - The company’s supply chain efficiency, driven by regional densification strategies, enhances its competitive edge in the market [55][56]