Sales Performance - Total sales volume for the fiscal year 2024 decreased by 8.8% to 84.811 million hectoliters, primarily impacted by weak performance in the Chinese market, partially offset by strong growth in Korea and India [5]. - In the fourth quarter of 2024, total sales volume and revenue decreased by 12.7% and 11.0%, respectively, significantly affected by performance in China, but partially offset by strong performance in Korea [15]. - For the fiscal year 2024, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited reported a volume decline of 11.8%, attributed to weakened consumer spending and a focus on immediate consumption channels [23]. - Total sales volume for Q4 2024 was 13,613 thousand liters, a decrease of 12.7% compared to Q4 2023's 15,667 thousand liters [94]. - In Q4 2024, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited reported a volume decline of 12.7% on an organic basis and 13.1% on a reported basis [99]. - For the fiscal year 2024, the company experienced an organic volume decline of 8.8% and a reported decline of 8.6% [99]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for the fiscal year 2024 declined by 7.0% to $6.246 billion, with a 2.0% increase in revenue per hectoliter, driven by revenue management initiatives in Eastern Asia and favorable product mix in various Asian countries [9][14]. - In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, the company experienced a 17.0% decline in volume in the Western Asia Pacific region, with normalized EBITDA decreasing by 20.4% [20]. - The company maintained a net cash position of $2.9 billion at the end of fiscal year 2024, a decrease of $274 million from the end of fiscal year 2023 [18]. - The comprehensive income for 2024 was $56 million, significantly lower than $594 million in 2023 [42]. - The company reported a net profit of $750 million for 2024, a decrease of 14.77% compared to $880 million in 2023 [47]. - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 was $1,134 million, down 37.24% from $1,811 million in 2023 [49]. - Revenue for Q4 2024 was $1,142 million, down 11.0% from $1,293 million in Q4 2023 [94]. - Gross profit for Q4 2024 was $521 million, reflecting a decline of 14.0% from $617 million in Q4 2023 [94]. - The normalized profit attributable to equity holders decreased from $917 million in fiscal year 2023 to $778 million in fiscal year 2024 [11][14]. - The normalized effective tax rate increased from 33.5% in fiscal year 2023 to 35.3% in fiscal year 2024, primarily due to changes in the country mix [7]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a final dividend of 5.66 cents per share for 2024, an increase from 5.29 cents in 2023, reflecting a 7% increase in total dividends [3][5]. - The board proposed a dividend of $750 million for fiscal year 2024, representing an increase of 7% compared to the previous year [18]. - The company plans to maintain or increase dividend amounts annually to maximize total shareholder returns [36]. - The company paid dividends of $698 million to Budweiser APAC shareholders in 2024, an increase of 39.6% from $500 million in 2023 [49]. Market Strategy and Growth Initiatives - The company plans to focus on product portfolio and channel selection to drive growth in 2025, alongside digitalizing marketing channels to create value [5]. - The company aims to leverage its strong market presence in Korea and India to counterbalance challenges faced in the Chinese market [13]. - The company aims to leverage its strong brand portfolio and marketing channels to regain market share growth in China, targeting the increasing middle-income households [33]. - The company views India as the next growth driver, focusing on premium and super-premium product categories [33]. - The company is committed to exploring suitable acquisition opportunities to accelerate growth in Southeast Asia and other markets [35]. Sustainability and Corporate Governance - The company aims for sustainability goals, including a 65% reduction in carbon emissions intensity per hectoliter compared to 2017 levels [19]. - The company emphasized its commitment to high standards of corporate governance, adhering to the corporate governance code, with one exception regarding the separation of roles between the chairman and CEO [79]. Financial Position and Assets - Total assets decreased to $14,778 million in 2024 from $16,234 million in 2023, a decline of approximately 8.9% [44]. - Total non-current liabilities decreased to $605 million in 2024 from $735 million in 2023, reflecting a reduction of 17.67% [45]. - Current liabilities also decreased to $3,933 million in 2024, down 15.43% from $4,649 million in 2023 [45]. - The total equity and liabilities of the company stood at $14,778 million in 2024, down from $16,234 million in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 8.93% [45]. Operational Metrics - Normalized EBITDA for the fiscal year 2024 decreased by 6.3% to $1.807 billion, with a normalized EBITDA margin increasing by 21 basis points to 28.9% [10][14]. - The normalized EBITDA margin for the total group was 28.9% in 2024, down from 29.5% in 2023 [59]. - The normalized diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 5.85 cents, compared to 6.91 cents in 2023, reflecting a decline of about 15.3% [72]. - The effective tax rate increased from 34.4% in 2023 to 36.3% in 2024 [68]. - The company recognized other operating income of $115 million in 2024, compared to $107 million in 2023, reflecting an increase of approximately 7.5% [62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HK$11.60, reflecting a potential upside of 61% from the current price of HK$7.19 [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing challenges in the Chinese market due to macroeconomic factors, high inventory levels, and a shift in channel dynamics, which negatively impacted sales and pricing [8][9]. - Despite strong sales momentum in the South Korean market, price increases are expected to contribute less to revenue growth moving forward [8]. - The report projects a significant decline in normalized EBITDA for Q4 2024, estimating a year-on-year decrease of 25.8% due to reduced sales and rising costs [9][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at US$6,280 million, down from US$6,305 million previously, reflecting a 0.4% decrease [14]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at US$784 million, a reduction of 6.5% from the previous estimate of US$839 million [14]. - The report anticipates a normalized EBITDA margin decline due to increased costs and lower sales volumes, particularly in the Chinese market [9][13]. Market Analysis - The Chinese market continues to face challenges from a high base effect and weak consumer demand, leading to a projected decline in sales volume [8][9]. - The South Korean market has shown resilience with strong sales, but the impact of price increases is expected to diminish [8]. - The report emphasizes the need for Budweiser APAC to navigate these market dynamics effectively to maintain profitability [9]. Valuation - The target price of HK$11.60 is based on a P/E ratio of 22.4 times the estimated earnings for 2025, which is below the historical average [15]. - The current valuation is considered attractive, with a projected dividend yield of 5.4% for 2025 [15]. - The report suggests that Budweiser APAC's valuation remains compelling compared to its peers in the industry [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HKD 9.39, representing a potential upside of 27.3% [1][4] Core Views - Short-term performance is pressured by challenges in the China market, but the company's long-term competitive strength remains intact [1] - The company's premium/super-premium product portfolio in China is expected to rebound as consumer spending recovers [1] - In Korea, the company has enhanced its competitiveness through increased investment and new product launches, with an 8.1% price increase on premium/super-premium products expected to boost profitability in 2025 [1] Regional Performance Asia Pacific West (China, India, Vietnam) - China market: Q3 2024 volume declined by 14.2%, average selling price (ASP) fell by 2.1%, leading to a 16.1% revenue drop [2] - India market: Continued strong growth with double-digit increases in premium/super-premium products, which account for 2/3 of India's revenue [2] - Overall APAC West: Volume and ASP declined by 13.5% and 1.9% respectively in Q3 2024 [2] Asia Pacific East (Korea, Japan, New Zealand) - Korea market: Revenue grew by mid-teens in Q3 2024, driven by mid-single-digit volume growth and product mix optimization [2] - Overall APAC East: Volume and ASP increased by 3.9% and 11.4% respectively in Q3 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: USD 1.705 billion, down 9.4% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 normalized EBITDA: USD 479 million, down 16.6% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 net profit: Down 25.0% YoY [3] - 9M 2024 revenue: USD 5.104 billion, down 6.1% YoY [3] - 9M 2024 normalized EBITDA: USD 1.579 billion, down 6.2% YoY [3] - 9M 2024 net profit: USD 777 million, down 11.6% YoY [3] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue: USD 6.531 billion, down 4.7% YoY [7] - 2025E revenue: USD 6.740 billion, up 3.2% YoY [7] - 2026E revenue: USD 7.000 billion, up 3.9% YoY [7] - 2024E net profit: USD 751 million, down 11.7% YoY [7] - 2025E net profit: USD 830 million, up 10.5% YoY [7] - 2026E net profit: USD 924 million, up 11.3% YoY [7] Valuation Metrics - 2025E P/E: 19x (down from 22x average for 2024-25) [1] - 2024E P/E: 16.6x [7] - 2025E P/E: 15.0x [7] - 2026E P/E: 13.5x [7] Market Position - The company continues to gain market share in Korea through expansion in both on-premise and off-premise channels [2] - New product launches (e.g., Cass, HANMAC) in Korea have received positive market feedback [2]

Industry and Company * **Company**: Budweiser Brewing Company, AIPAC Ltd. * **Industry**: Beer and beverage industry, specifically focusing on premium and super-premium segments. Core Views and Arguments * **Performance Impact**: The first nine months of 2024 were impacted by industry weakness in China, partially offset by strong performance in South Korea and India. * **Market Share Gains**: Continued commercial momentum in South Korea and India drove sustained market share gains and revenue per hectolitre growth. * **Premiumization**: The company is leading the premiumization of the beer category, with premium and super-premium portfolio contributing approximately two-thirds of revenue. * **Innovation**: Volume and revenue contribution from innovations within the Budweiser family, including Supreme and Magnum, continue to increase. * **Channel Expansion**: Revenue contribution from the in-home channel grew as a result of ongoing efforts to premiumize the channel. * **Geographic Expansion**: The company's geographic expansion strategy for the Budweiser brands is on track. * **Sustainability**: The company has made progress in sustainability initiatives, maintaining a low-risk rating from Sustainalytics. Key Financials * **Total Volumes**: Decreased by 8.1% * **Revenue**: Decreased by 6.1% * **Revenue per Hectolitre**: Grew by 2.2% * **Normalized EBITDA**: Decreased by 6.2% * **Normalized EBITDA Margin**: Decreased by four basis points * **Gross Profit Margin**: Expanded by 108 basis points * **Cost of Sales**: Decreased by 8.1% China Market * **Performance**: Impacted by a soft industry, particularly from continued weakness in on-premise channels. * **Premiumization**: Leading the premiumization of the beer category, with premium and super-premium portfolio contributing approximately two-thirds of revenue. * **Innovation**: Volume and revenue contribution from innovations within the Budweiser family, including Supreme and Magnum, continue to increase. * **Channel Expansion**: Revenue contribution from the in-home channel grew as a result of ongoing efforts to premiumize the channel. * **Geographic Expansion**: The company's geographic expansion strategy for the Budweiser brands is on track. * **Sustainability**: The company has made progress in sustainability initiatives, maintaining a low-risk rating from Sustainalytics. South Korea Market * **Performance**: Revenues grew by mid-teens in the third quarter, driven by double-digit revenue per hectolitre increase and single-digit volume growth. * **Market Share**: Achieved a strong overall total market share gain, supported by share gains in both the on-premise and in-home channels, led by KAS. * **Innovation**: Further expanded Cast Light Zero Sugar in the third quarter with a campaign featuring South Korean Olympic fencing gold medalist Oh Sang-Wook. * **Geographic Expansion**: The company's geographic expansion strategy for the Budweiser brands is on track. * **Sustainability**: The company has made progress in sustainability initiatives, maintaining a low-risk rating from Sustainalytics. India Market * **Performance**: Business continued to outgrow the industry for the first nine months of the year, driven by double-digit net revenue growth within the premium and super-premium portfolio. * **Premiumization**: Premium and super-premium segments contributed more than two-thirds of revenue. * **Innovation**: The company has made progress in sustainability initiatives, maintaining a low-risk rating from Sustainalytics. Sustainability * **Sustainalytics Rating**: Maintained a low-risk rating from Sustainalytics, ranking 4th among 85 beer, wine and spirits companies and 7th out of 644 food products companies worldwide. * **Global Beer Responsible Day**: Kicked off campaigns across key markets to celebrate a Global Beer Responsible Day to promote smart drinking. * **Commitment**: A commitment the company has been championing for 17 years, in partnership with government and industry stakeholders. Future Outlook * **Premiumization**: The company remains committed to premiumization, with a focus on expanding its premium and super-premium portfolio. * **Geographic Expansion**: The company continues to expand its geographic footprint, targeting lower-tier cities and regions with high growth potential. * **Digitization**: The company is investing in digitization and system integration to improve processes and management visibility. * **Cost Management**: The company remains focused on cost management initiatives to improve efficiency and profitability.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) [4] Core Insights - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of $5.104 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 6.1% [1] - EBITDA for the same period was $1.579 billion, also reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was $1.705 billion, down 9.4% year-on-year, while EBITDA fell by 16.6% to $479 million [1] - The company experienced a decline in sales volume of 8.1% for the first three quarters and 11.4% in Q3 [1] - The average price per ton of beer increased by 2.2% year-on-year for both the first three quarters and Q3 [1] Regional Performance - In the Western region of Asia, Q3 revenue and EBITDA decreased by 15.1% and 25.9% year-on-year, respectively, with sales volume down 13.5% [1] - Conversely, the Eastern region of Asia saw revenue and EBITDA growth of 15.7% and 33.3% year-on-year in Q3, with sales volume up 3.9% [1] - In India, Budweiser's high-end and super high-end product lines achieved double-digit revenue growth, with high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of revenue [1] - In South Korea, Q3 sales volume grew in the single digits, contributing to a double-digit revenue increase for the first three quarters [1] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The report lowers the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to $797 million, $907 million, and $996 million, representing reductions of 15%, 13%, and 13% respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17x for 2024, 15x for 2025, and 14x for 2026 [2] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive advantage in the high-end and super high-end segments [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) with a target price of HKD 9.85, indicating a potential upside of 21.5% from the current price of HKD 8.11 [4][21]. Core Views - Short-term performance is expected to be challenging due to a decline in consumer spending in the Chinese beer market, with a projected 9.4% year-on-year decrease in overall organic revenue for Q3 2024, driven by an 11.4% drop in sales volume [2][10]. - Despite short-term difficulties, the long-term outlook remains positive due to Budweiser APAC's strong product and brand mix in the premium and super-premium segments, which could provide significant earnings elasticity as consumer spending recovers [2][11]. - The company's current valuation is considered attractive, and its strong management capabilities and backing from AB InBev enhance its appeal to foreign investors [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Budweiser APAC reported a 9.4% decline in organic revenue, with sales volume down 11.4% and a slight average price increase of 2.2% [2][10]. - The normalized EBITDA decreased by 16.6% year-on-year, reflecting the negative operating leverage from the significant revenue drop [10][11]. - The company anticipates that the downward trend in revenue and EBITDA will likely continue into Q4 2024 [2][11]. Market Analysis - In the Chinese market, Q3 2024 sales volume fell by 14.2%, attributed to a higher proportion of on-premise sales channels, which were more adversely affected than off-premise channels [2][11]. - The management noted that there has been no significant impact from policy stimulus on beer demand in Q4 2024, suggesting continued pressure on sales and average pricing [2][11]. - Conversely, the South Korean market showed resilience with a double-digit year-on-year growth in organic revenue for Q3 2024, driven by price increases and improved product mix [12][11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Budweiser APAC are expected to decline to USD 6.245 billion in 2024, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][18]. - The net profit is projected to drop to USD 700 million in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 17.8% [3][18]. - The report highlights a low price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.6x for 2024, which is expected to improve to 15.3x by 2025, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10, compared to the current price of HKD 8.11 [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of USD 5.104 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.579 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 6.2% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to the parent company was USD 777 million, showing a decline of 11.6% [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved total revenue of USD 1.705 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 479 million, with year-on-year declines of 9.4% and 16.6% respectively. The normalized net profit for Q3 was USD 225 million, down 25% [1]. - The report highlights the pressure on sales in the China region due to weak consumption in dining and nightlife, increased competition, and high base effects from the previous year. In contrast, the Indian market showed strong growth, particularly in high-end and super-premium product segments [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Budweiser APAC's total revenue was USD 5.104 billion, with a normalized EBITDA of USD 1.579 billion, both down 6.1% year-on-year. The normalized net profit was USD 777 million, down 11.6% [1]. - In Q3 2024, total revenue was USD 1.705 billion, with normalized EBITDA of USD 479 million, reflecting declines of 9.4% and 16.6% year-on-year respectively. The normalized net profit for Q3 was USD 225 million, down 25% [1][2]. Regional Performance - In the Asia-Pacific West region, sales were weak, with a year-on-year decline in volume and price of 14.2% and 2.1% respectively. The pressure was attributed to weak dining and nightlife consumption, intensified competition, and a high base from the previous year [1]. - Conversely, the Asia-Pacific East region saw a recovery in sales, with a year-on-year increase in volume of 3.9% and a price increase of 11.4%, driven by market investments and new product launches [1][3]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is actively adjusting its strategy in the China market by enhancing its presence in the non-retail beverage segment and increasing investments in the mid-range price segment. The report notes that the high-end potential in China remains significant, with expectations for gradual recovery in operations as policies take effect [1][3]. - In South Korea, the company plans to increase prices for high-end products starting November 1, which is expected to support profit growth in the coming year [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC, with a target price of HKD 10, compared to the current price of HKD 8.11 [4][17]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of USD 5.104 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.579 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 6.2% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to the parent company was USD 777 million, down 11.6% year-on-year [1][2]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved total revenue of USD 1.705 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 479 million, with year-on-year declines of 9.4% and 16.6% respectively. The normalized net profit for Q3 was USD 225 million, down 25.0% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report highlights the ongoing pressure in the Chinese market due to weak sales and increased costs, while the Indian market continues to show strong growth, particularly in the premium segment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Budweiser APAC's total revenue was USD 5.104 billion, with a normalized EBITDA of USD 1.579 billion, both showing a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 6.2% respectively. The normalized net profit was USD 777 million, down 11.6% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of USD 1.705 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 479 million, with year-on-year declines of 9.4% and 16.6% respectively. The normalized net profit for Q3 was USD 225 million, down 25.0% [1][2]. Regional Performance - In the Asia-Pacific West region, sales in China saw a year-on-year decline of 14.2% in volume and 2.1% in price, attributed to weak dining and nightlife consumption, increased competition, and a high base from the previous year. Conversely, India continued to show strong growth, particularly in high-end products [2]. - The Asia-Pacific East region experienced a recovery in sales, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in volume and an 11.4% increase in price, driven by increased market investment and new product launches [2]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is actively adjusting its strategy in the Chinese market by enhancing its presence in the home beverage segment and increasing investment in the mid-range price segment. The company aims to leverage its high-end brand potential, which currently has a sales share of about 17%, compared to 35% in many mature markets [2][3]. - In South Korea, the company plans to increase prices for high-end products by 8.1% starting November 1, which is expected to support profit growth in the coming year [2].

Sales Volume Correction - Total sales volume for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, is corrected to 7,119.8 million liters, not 7,719.8 million liters as previously stated[1] - The percentage change in organic sales volume remains accurate and unchanged in the announcement[1]

百威亚太第三季度营收低于预期 财联社10月31日电，百威亚太第三季度净利润2.01亿美元，预估2.705 亿美元；第三季度营收17.1亿美元，预估18.2亿美元；第三季度调整后EBITDA 4.79亿美元，预估5.517 亿美元；9个月营收51.0亿美元；9个月毛利率51.4％。 ...