Core Viewpoint - Li Auto (LI.US) shares rose over 2.7% to $24.45, driven by the recent revival of automotive consumption subsidies in multiple regions [1] Group 1: Automotive Consumption Subsidies - Qingdao will launch a new round of automotive consumption subsidies this week, with potential discounts of up to 30,000 yuan when combined with national subsidies and consumer loan interest subsidies [1] - Chongqing announced on September 2 that it will add 135 million yuan to its budget for the 2025 automotive and electric bicycle trade-in subsidy policy [1] - Ningbo initiated a total of 60 million yuan in automotive consumption vouchers on September 1 [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to Founder Securities, the traditional sales peak season is approaching, which is expected to sustain the recovery of terminal demand [1] - The automotive sector's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is currently below the 40th percentile of the past five years, indicating ample room for valuation recovery, which may align with sales growth [1]

丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨理想汽车-W（2015.HK） [Table_Title] 理想汽车中报点评：业绩符合预期，看好后续产 品、销售优化带动公司反转 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q2 理想销量 11.1 万辆，同比+2.3%，实现营收 302.5 亿元，同比-4.5%，车辆毛利率达 19.4%，同比+0.6pct。理想汽车产品优势和品牌设计深入人心，后续车型规划清晰，直营渠道 结构持续优化，"双能战略"有望进一步扩大理想汽车的优势，未来销量空间广阔。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SFC：BUW101 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 理想汽车-W（2015.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 理想汽车中报点评：业绩符合预期，看好后续产 2] 品、销售优化带动公司反转 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-09-09 港股研究丨公司点评 [Table_Rank]投资评级 买入丨维持 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto (LI.US) saw a pre-market increase of over 2.7%, reaching $24.45, driven by the recent revival of automotive consumption subsidies in multiple regions [1] Group 1: Automotive Consumption Subsidies - Qingdao will launch a new round of automotive consumption subsidies this week, with potential discounts of up to 30,000 yuan when combined with national subsidies and consumer loan interest subsidies [1] - Chongqing announced on September 2nd an additional budget of 135 million yuan for the continued implementation of the 2025 vehicle and electric bicycle trade-in subsidy policy [1] - Ningbo initiated a total of 60 million yuan in automotive consumption vouchers on September 1st [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to Founder Securities, with the traditional sales peak season approaching, terminal demand is expected to continue to recover [1] - The automotive sector's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is currently below the 40th percentile of the past five years, indicating ample room for valuation recovery, which is likely to expand alongside sales growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto reported a revenue of 56.172 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 3% to 1.744 billion RMB [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 56.172 billion RMB, down from 57.312 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 2% decline [3]. - Gross profit slightly decreased by 0.7% to 11.385 billion RMB [3]. - Operating profit turned positive at 1.099 billion RMB compared to an operating loss in the previous year [3]. - Pre-tax profit increased by 11.3% to 2.063 billion RMB [3]. - Net profit rose by 3% to 1.744 billion RMB, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders decreased by 9% to 1.499 billion RMB [3]. Vehicle Sales and Market Position - Vehicle sales revenue was 53.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a lower average selling price influenced by product mix and increased sales incentives [2][3]. - The company achieved a delivery volume of 203,938 vehicles, marking a 7.9% increase year-on-year, with a cumulative delivery of 1,337,810 vehicles as of June 30, 2025 [3][4]. - Li Auto maintained a market share of 13.6% in the 200,000 RMB and above new energy vehicle segment, continuing to lead in sales among Chinese automotive brands [3]. Product Development and Future Plans - The company launched the Li MEGA Ultra Smart Refresh and the Li L Series Smart Refresh, enhancing user experience through product upgrades [4]. - A new family-oriented five-seat pure electric SUV, the Li i6, is set to be released in September to cater to the growing demand for electric vehicles [4]. - Li Auto aims to expand its product matrix and enhance its sales and service network, with a goal of establishing 4,000 charging stations by the end of the year [4].

Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Li Auto achieved a total revenue of RMB 56.17 billion, a decrease of 2.0% compared to RMB 57.31 billion in the same period of 2024[9]. - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was RMB 1.74 billion, an increase of 3.0% from RMB 1.69 billion in the same period of 2024[9]. - The pre-tax profit for the first half of 2025 was RMB 2.06 billion, reflecting an increase of 11.3% compared to RMB 1.85 billion in the first half of 2024[9]. - The company reported a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 2.48 billion for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 10.7% from RMB 2.78 billion in the same period of 2024[9]. - Total revenue decreased by 2.0% from RMB 57,312 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, to RMB 56,172 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025[30]. - Vehicle sales revenue decreased by 1.8% from RMB 54,571 million to RMB 53,563 million, primarily due to a lower average selling price influenced by product mix and increased sales incentives[30]. - Gross profit decreased by 0.7% from RMB 11,461 million to RMB 11,385 million, while gross margin increased from 20.0% to 20.3%[32]. - Operating profit improved to RMB 1,098 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025, compared to an operating loss of RMB 116.9 million for the same period in 2024[36]. - Net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was RMB 1,743 million, showing relative stability compared to RMB 1,692 million for the same period in 2024[39]. Vehicle Deliveries and Market Position - The total vehicle deliveries for the first half of 2025 reached 203,938 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%[14]. - Li Auto's cumulative market share in the RMB 200,000 and above new energy vehicle market reached 13.6% in the first half of 2025, maintaining its position as the top-selling Chinese automotive brand[14]. - The company launched the Li MEGA Ultra Smart Refresh and the Li L Series Smart Refresh in the first half of 2025, enhancing user experience through product upgrades[15]. - The Li MEGA Home Special Edition became the best-selling MPV in the RMB 500,000 and above category since May 2025, and the top-selling pure electric vehicle in the same price range since June 2025[16]. - The company launched the Li Xiang i8, a six-seat pure electric SUV, featuring a 720 km CLTC range and a price of RMB 339,800, with deliveries starting on August 20, 2025[26]. - The company plans to launch the Li Xiang i6, a five-seat pure electric SUV, in September 2025, as part of its strategy to enrich its product matrix[27]. Research and Development - The company established its first overseas R&D center in Munich, Germany, in January 2025, focusing on next-generation technology research in four key areas[19]. - The company has developed a new generation of driver assistance technology, VLA driver model, enhancing user experience with advanced 3D spatial understanding and adaptive capabilities[17]. - The company allocated $44.2 million for R&D of next-generation electric vehicle technologies, $212.2 million for developing future platforms and vehicle models, and $213.2 million for working capital and general corporate purposes, utilizing approximately 89% of the net proceeds[119]. Financial Position and Cash Flow - Cash position as of June 30, 2025, was RMB 106.9 billion, down from RMB 112.8 billion as of December 31, 2024[40]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 54.3% as of June 30, 2025, from 56.1% as of December 31, 2024[46]. - Total assets as of June 30, 2025, amounted to RMB 161,286,005, a slight decrease from RMB 162,349,078 as of December 31, 2024[134]. - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 87,657,512 as of June 30, 2025, from RMB 91,028,696 as of December 31, 2024, representing a reduction of 3.73%[134]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 49,790,369 as of June 30, 2025, from RMB 65,901,123 as of December 31, 2024, a decline of 24.48%[132]. - The company experienced a net cash outflow from financing activities, which shifted from RMB 80,514,000 inflow in 2024 to RMB 8,631,000 outflow in 2025[140]. Corporate Governance - The company has established three committees: Audit Committee, Remuneration Committee, and Nomination and Corporate Governance Committee to oversee specific areas of the company's affairs[63]. - The Audit Committee is responsible for reviewing and supervising the group's financial reporting procedures, risk management, and internal control systems[64]. - The company emphasizes high standards of corporate governance to protect shareholder interests and enhance corporate value[57]. - The company confirms compliance with the securities trading standards throughout the reporting period[62]. - The company will continue to regularly review and monitor its corporate governance practices to ensure adherence to high standards[65]. Employee and Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the company had a total of 31,018 employees, with 5,868 in R&D, 9,705 in production, 12,862 in sales, and 2,583 in general and administration[52]. - The total number of Class A shares held by Mr. Li is 108,557,400, representing 5.07% of the issued share capital[54]. - Mr. Li holds approximately 21.69% of the company's issued shares and controls about 68.15% of the voting rights for non-reserved matters[56]. - The company has adopted share incentive plans for 2019, 2020, and 2021[52]. - The company has a structured training system for employee skill enhancement, including pre-job training for new hires[51]. Regulatory and Compliance Risks - The variable interest entity structure may face regulatory risks due to restrictions on foreign investment in specific business sectors in China[155]. - The management believes the likelihood of incurring losses due to changes in ownership structure or contractual arrangements with VIEs is low[158]. - The company anticipates potential regulatory risks related to variable interest entities (VIEs) that could significantly impact business operations if legal compliance is not maintained[158]. - The management emphasizes that the enforceability of contracts with VIEs is subject to Chinese law, which may introduce uncertainties in legal protections[158].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price cuts by leading Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers NIO, Li Auto, and Xpeng reflect a desperate response to intense market competition and the need to adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic pressures [2][4][16]. Group 1: Price Reduction Strategies - NIO has significantly reduced the prices of its models, with the ES8's price dropping from over 50 million yuan to around 30 million yuan after adopting a battery-as-a-service (BaaS) model [2][12]. - Li Auto's i8 model saw a price adjustment from 34.98 million yuan to 33.98 million yuan, indicating a shift in pricing strategy to remain competitive [6][7]. - Xpeng has also entered the price-cutting fray, with its new MONA M03 model priced between 11 million and 14 million yuan, significantly lower than previous models [4][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Pressure - The price cuts are not merely strategic decisions but rather a reaction to a "life-and-death" phase in the market, driven by pressures such as market saturation, increased competition, and profitability challenges [16][18]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, with traditional automakers and new entrants like Huawei and Xiaomi posing significant threats to the market share of NIO, Li Auto, and Xpeng [18]. - The "Matthew Effect" in the Chinese automotive market is becoming more pronounced, with resources increasingly concentrating among leading brands, making it difficult for smaller players to compete [16][18]. Group 3: Implications for Future Strategies - The ongoing price war suggests that the future competition among these electric vehicle manufacturers will be more brutal, with further price reductions and rapid technological advancements expected [18]. - The shift in pricing strategies may lead to a dilution of brand value and customer trust, particularly among existing customers who may feel disadvantaged by the new pricing structures [18]. - The leaders of these companies are now focused on how to thrive post-price cuts rather than whether to implement them, indicating a significant shift in strategic priorities [18].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant inflows from southbound funds, with a total net inflow exceeding 687 billion HKD in the first half of the year, and a record single-day net inflow of 35.88 billion HKD on August 15 [1] - Analysts predict that the total net inflow of southbound funds for the entire year of 2025 could exceed 1.2 trillion HKD, indicating a strong upward trend for the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of the year [1] - The valuation of the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has dropped to around 24 times PE, which is at the 30th percentile level over the past decade, suggesting a good safety margin and investment value [1] Group 2 - Four key factors are supporting the positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market: attractive valuations, potential foreign capital inflow, continuous southbound fund inflows, and the presence of scarce assets in emerging industries such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - For ordinary investors, participating in the market through related ETFs is recommended due to the high risks and investment thresholds associated with individual stock investments [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) closely tracks the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, selecting 30 large-cap technology leaders, with the top ten stocks accounting for 77% of the weight, covering major players like Tencent and Alibaba, as well as emerging forces like Li Auto and BeiGene [2]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry shows positive sales growth, particularly in the passenger and new energy vehicle segments, with a notable increase in new model orders and market performance [1][2][4]. Weekly Data - Passenger car sales reached 523,000 units, up 4.2% year-on-year and 9.5% month-on-month [1][2]. - New energy vehicle sales totaled 290,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.9% and a month-on-month increase of 8.1% [1][2]. - New energy penetration rate stands at 55.3%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector rose by 1.0%, ranking 9th among Shenwan sub-industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 0.6% [1][2]. - Sub-sectors such as commercial passenger vehicles, passenger vehicles, commercial freight vehicles, motorcycles, and auto parts saw increases of 6.2%, 1.7%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 0.4% respectively, while automotive services declined by 1.9% [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key companies including Geely Automobile, Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, BYD, Xiaomi Group, Bertley, Top Group, Xinquan, Huguang, and Chuncheng Power [2][5]. - For the parts sector, recommendations include intelligent driving companies like Bertley and Horizon Robotics, and intelligent cockpit companies like Jifeng [5]. - In the motorcycle segment, the report recommends leading companies in the large-displacement category such as Chuncheng Power and Longxin General [6]. New Model Highlights - New model orders are performing well, with significant upcoming launches including the new Aion M7, which has already received over 150,000 pre-orders [4][5]. - The report anticipates that the launch of new models will accelerate the growth of high-end domestic vehicles [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][8]. Core Views - In August 2025, the company sold 29,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year decline of 40.7% and a month-on-month decline of 7.2%. The company has a clear product planning and continues to optimize its direct sales channel structure, with the "dual-energy strategy" expected to further enhance its advantages, indicating a broad future sales potential [2][4][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August 2025, the company achieved sales of 28,529 vehicles, down 40.7% year-on-year and down 7.2% month-on-month. Cumulatively, from January to August, total sales reached 263,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decline of 8.6%. Weekly sales data shows fluctuations, with the highest weekly sales reaching 0.76 million vehicles in the 34th week [4][6][8]. Future Outlook - The company expects September sales to range between 31,000 to 36,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year decline of 42.8% to 33.5%, but a month-on-month increase of 7.8% to 25.3%. The MEGA production capacity is anticipated to exceed 3,500 vehicles, and the i6 model is set to launch in September, which is expected to open up new customer segments [6][8]. Product and Technology Development - The company continues to lead in intelligent driving technology, with ongoing iterations expected to benefit from the accelerating penetration rate in the industry. The upcoming new models will enhance the product matrix and overall sales potential. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.14 billion, 8.48 billion, and 12.61 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 57.8X, 21.4X, and 14.4X [6][8]. Infrastructure and Channel Expansion - As of August 2025, the company has established 3,190 supercharging stations and 17,597 charging piles, with plans to reach 4,000 supercharging stations by the end of the year. The company has also expanded its retail and service network, with 543 retail centers and 536 service centers across 156 and 222 cities, respectively [6][8].

Core Insights - The company has achieved a total of 3,201 supercharging stations as of September 7, 2025, with a goal of exceeding 4,000 stations by the end of the year [1] - The progress towards the annual target shows an increase from 64.80% to 64.85%, indicating a steady pace in station construction [1] - To meet the year-end target, the company needs to complete an average of 6.95 stations per day over the remaining 115 days of the year [1] Summary by Sections - **Supercharging Station Construction** - The total number of supercharging stations has increased from 3,195 to 3,201 in a short span, reflecting ongoing expansion efforts [1] - Six new stations have been established across various provinces, including Hunan, Guangdong, Guizhou, Shandong, Yunnan, and Zhejiang, with different specifications for each [1] - **Progress Metrics** - The current progress towards the annual target is at 64.85%, with a time progress value of 68.49%, indicating that the company is slightly behind schedule [1] - The company has 799 stations left to build to reach its goal, emphasizing the need for accelerated construction in the coming months [1]