Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) as of August 23, 2024 [1] Core Views - ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 15.623 billion parcels in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.80%, with a market share of 19.49% [1][3] - The company is focusing on enhancing service quality and optimizing its business structure, which is expected to lead to a significant increase in high-value parcel volume by the end of the year [4][6] - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 12% to 13% for the years 2024 to 2026, with net profit growth projected at 15% to 23% during the same period [8][9] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q2 2024, ZTO Express reported a business volume of 8.452 billion parcels, a 10.10% increase year-on-year, with a market share of 19.63% [1][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 20.686 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 10.48% increase year-on-year, with core express service revenue of 19.116 billion yuan, up 9.94% [3] Cost Management - ZTO Express reported a record low core cost per parcel of 0.65 yuan in Q2 2024, down 0.02 yuan year-on-year, attributed to improved operational efficiency and resource utilization [6][8] - The company is implementing cost reduction projects such as "Direct Delivery" and "Three-Network Integration," which are expected to further decrease overall costs [7][8] Future Outlook - The company has set a business volume growth target of 15% to 18% for 2024, with expectations for accelerated growth in H2 2024 [6][8] - ZTO Express is projected to achieve revenues of 429.76 billion yuan, 484.31 billion yuan, and 545.56 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (02057) is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and adjusted net profit of 5.01 billion yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 10.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, and adjusted net profit reached 2.81 billion yuan, growing 10.9% year-on-year [3][10] - The company maintained a mid-term dividend of 0.35 USD per American Depositary Share and common stock, corresponding to a payout ratio of 40% [10] - In Q2 2024, the express delivery volume increased by 10.1% year-on-year, with a market share of 19.6% [10] - The company’s core express business revenue per ticket was 1.24 yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, benefiting from an increase in high-value non-e-commerce packages [10] - The core cost per ticket decreased by 0.02 yuan year-on-year, with a decline in transportation costs by 0.03 yuan to 0.39 yuan, a decrease of 6.8% [10] - The company maintains a business volume growth guidance of 15%-18% for 2024, expecting package volume to be approximately 34.73 billion to 35.64 billion pieces [10] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 43.96 billion, 49.37 billion, and 54.54 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 14.43%, 12.29%, and 10.48% [11] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 43.96 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.25 billion yuan, and EPS of 12.61 yuan [11] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 35.03% [6] - The current share price is 165.50 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 133.50 billion HKD [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [4][9][15] Core Views - ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 15.62 billion pieces in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8%. The second quarter saw a business volume of 8.45 billion pieces, up 10.1% year-on-year [2][3] - The company's market share decreased from 21.6% to 19.6% year-on-year in Q2, as ZTO prioritized revenue quality over volume, leading to slower growth compared to the industry average [2][3] - Despite a decline in market share, ZTO's revenue quality improved, with Q2 single-ticket revenue slightly increasing to 1.24 CNY from 1.23 CNY year-on-year, indicating a focus on quality service [2][3] - The report anticipates a business volume growth rate of at least 18% in the second half of the year to meet the annual guidance of 15-18% growth [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, ZTO reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit was 5.03 billion CNY, up 13.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a 673 million CNY impairment charge on equity investments [2][3] - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 9.38 billion CNY, 11.72 billion CNY, and 13.37 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.9X, 10.3X, and 9.0X [3][7] - The company maintains a balanced strategy of enhancing service quality, business scale, and profitability, which has led to a strong brand recognition and customer satisfaction [3][7] Cost and Profitability Analysis - In Q2, ZTO's single-ticket cost was 0.82 CNY, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, with transportation costs decreasing by 6.8% to 0.39 CNY, while sorting costs rose by 4.6% to 0.26 CNY [2][3] - The report indicates that while single-ticket costs have stabilized, there is potential for further cost reduction as new equipment utilization increases with growing business volume [3][8]

J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images I last wrote about ZTO Express in an article published in June of this year. Back then, I was concerned about ZTO's market share loss and the ongoing price war in China's express delivery industry. Unfortunately, the trend continued in Q2 of 2024 as evidenced by ZTO's earnings results, which were released on August 20th after the bell. Faced with another quarter of market share loss, ZTO's management is determined to fight back. At the same time, management is also c ...

ZTO Express' (ZTO) ) shares gained 6.1% since its second-quarter 2024 earnings release on Aug 20. Quarterly earnings of 47 cents per share improved year over year. Total revenues of $1.47 billion improved year over year. Detailed Operational Statistics Revenues from the core express delivery business improved 10.4% year over year, owing to 10.1% growth of parcel volume and stable parcel unit price. KA revenues, including delivery fees from direct sales organizations established to serve core express KA cust ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) [4] Core Insights - The company focuses on balanced growth, enhancing single-piece collection. In Q2 2024, ZTO Express achieved a total parcel volume of 8.45 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with a market share of 19.6%, down by 2.0 percentage points. The revenue per single piece for express delivery was CNY 1.17, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while the core revenue per piece was CNY 1.24. The sorting cost per piece was CNY 0.26, up by CNY 0.01 year-on-year, and the transportation cost per piece was CNY 0.39, down by CNY 0.03 year-on-year. The gross profit per piece was CNY 0.52, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year [3][9] - Operational efficiency continues to improve, with profitability optimizing. In Q2 2024, the gross profit reached CNY 3.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and net profit was CNY 2.61 billion, up by 3.3%. The adjusted net profit was CNY 2.81 billion, a growth of 10.9% year-on-year. For the first half of 2024, the gross profit was CNY 6.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, and adjusted net profit was CNY 5.03 billion, up by 13%. The adjusted net profit per piece in Q2 2024 was CNY 0.33, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year. The company expects parcel volume in 2024 to be between 34.73 billion and 35.64 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 18% [3][9] - Profitability forecast and investment advice indicate that the company has the strongest scale effect and a robust, balanced franchise network. With industry demand continuing to exceed expectations, the company adheres to a quality operation strategy, achieving high-quality profitability. The net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 remain unchanged at CNY 10.5 billion, CNY 12.1 billion, and CNY 14 billion, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][9] Financial Data and Valuation - For 2022A, 2023A, and projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, the revenue is projected to be CNY 35.377 billion, CNY 38.419 billion, CNY 44.526 billion, CNY 50.234 billion, and CNY 56.105 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 16%, 9%, 16%, 13%, and 12% [3][9] - The net profit for the same periods is projected to be CNY 6.809 billion, CNY 8.749 billion, CNY 10.542 billion, CNY 12.109 billion, and CNY 13.963 billion, with growth rates of 43%, 28%, 20%, 15%, and 15% [3][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be CNY 8.38, CNY 10.76, CNY 12.97, CNY 14.90, and CNY 17.18, with price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) of 17.6, 13.7, 13.2, 11.5, and 10.0 [3][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both Hong Kong and US stocks [2]. Core Views - The company reported a slight profit exceeding expectations, with a continuous optimization of its customer structure [2]. - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.69 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 5.03 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [3]. - The company completed a business volume of 15.623 billion pieces in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [3]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.73 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 2.61 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 2.81 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [3]. - The adjusted profit per ticket increased slightly by 0.7% to 0.33 RMB, while the core revenue per ticket remained stable at 1.24 RMB, despite a 12% decline in the industry average [4]. Strategic Insights - The company is actively exploring a new balance between market share and profit margin amidst ongoing price competition in the industry [4]. - The revenue from direct customer business grew by 26.2% year-on-year, indicating a focus on high-quality development strategies [4]. - The company announced a dividend of 0.35 USD per share, highlighting its commitment to synchronizing dividends with growth [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.73 RMB, 14.89 RMB, and 17.42 RMB, respectively [5]. - The company is assigned a 15x price-to-earnings (PE) valuation for 2024, leading to a target price of 208.57 HKD per share and 26.73 USD per share for Hong Kong and US stocks, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [1] Core Views - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 10.73 billion yuan for Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while net profit reached 2.61 billion yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [1] - The company’s business volume for Q3 2023 was 8.452 billion pieces, also reflecting a 10.1% year-on-year increase, although market share decreased by 2 percentage points to 19.6% [1] - The management maintains the annual package volume growth forecast for 2024 at 15% to 18%, corresponding to 34.73 billion to 35.64 billion pieces [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 35,377 - 2023A: 38,419 - 2024E: 44,178 - 2025E: 48,901 - 2026E: 53,193 [3] - Net Profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: 6,809 - 2023A: 8,749 - 2024E: 10,522 - 2025E: 12,125 - 2026E: 13,609 [3] - Gross Margin for Q2 2024 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 33.8%, while net margin fell by 1.6 percentage points to 24.4% [1] Dividend Information - The board has approved a mid-term cash dividend of $0.35 per share for H1 2024, with a payout ratio of 40% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) is "Outperform" [3][15]. Core Views - The report highlights ZTO Express's focus on a balanced growth strategy, emphasizing service quality while achieving steady operational performance. In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 20.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [1][4]. - The company is transitioning from high volume to high quality, with a business volume of 8.45 billion parcels in Q2 2024, reflecting a 10.1% year-on-year growth despite a slight decline in market share due to intense price competition [1][4]. - ZTO Express's core express service price remained stable at 1.24 yuan per parcel, while the single parcel net profit (adjusted) was 0.33 yuan, showing resilience in profitability [10][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, ZTO Express achieved a revenue of 20.69 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.04 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 5.03 billion yuan, up 13.0% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.73 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.61 billion yuan, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [1][4]. - The company’s capital expenditure in Q2 2024 was 1.28 billion yuan, significantly down from 2.20 billion yuan in the same period last year, indicating a peak in capital spending has passed [10][12]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The report indicates that the single parcel transportation cost was 0.39 yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year, while the single parcel transfer cost was 0.26 yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year [10][12]. - The company’s EBIT margin is projected to improve, with estimates for 2024-2026 showing a gradual increase in profitability metrics [2][13]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is 9.90 billion, 11.71 billion, and 13.36 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 18.2%, and 14.1% [12][13].

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 中通快遞(開曼)有限公司 (A company controlled through weighted voting rights and incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (Stock Code: 2057) Exhibit 99.2 Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility for the contents of this announcement, make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and expressly disclaim any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any ...