Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The dovish remarks from Powell have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, benefiting the prices of precious and base metals [3][41] - The market is beginning to price in the likelihood of a rate cut, with a significant increase in the probability of a September cut to 91.1% following Powell's comments [3][41] - Long-term concerns regarding global monetary policy and debt are expected to support gold prices, with the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" act projected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion [3][15] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 1.05% to $3,417.20 per ounce, while silver rose by 2.26% to $38.88 per ounce [1][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 276,237.73 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 6,992,897.80 ounces [24] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 1.19% to 87.89, indicating a potential recovery in silver prices due to increased industrial demand [1][43] Base Metals - Copper prices rose by 0.37% to $9,796.50 per ton on the LME, while aluminum increased by 0.73% to $2,622.00 per ton [6][48] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines continue to tighten raw material availability, with Peru's copper production increasing by 7.1% year-on-year [7][68] - The market anticipates a cautious improvement in consumption as the traditional peak season approaches [7][70] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at 18,920 yuan per ton, with tight inventory levels among producers [81] - Molybdenum prices have shown positive trends, with molybdenum iron prices rising by 3.60% to 287,500 yuan per ton [14][82] - The demand for molybdenum is expected to remain strong, supported by tight supply conditions [14][82]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The fixed income market has shown a "N" shaped trend this year, with a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds re-emerging as market dynamics shift [1][25] - The bond market's main narrative has changed, indicating that current market behavior is driven more by risk appetite and asset reallocation rather than fundamental or liquidity factors [25][26] - The "look at stocks, act on bonds" strategy may continue in the third quarter, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize in the range of 1.75%-1.80% [1][28] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks reported a net profit of 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.20%, but with signs of marginal improvement compared to the first quarter [3] - City commercial banks showed the most significant performance improvement, with a total profit of 176.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10% but a notable increase in growth rate [3] - The outlook for the banking sector suggests that net interest margins may stabilize in the short term due to regulatory controls on deposit renewals and interbank rates [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Baiyunshan (600332) achieved a revenue of 41.835 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.93%, with a net profit of 2.516 billion yuan, down 1.31% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its health product segment and enhancing its international market presence, with significant growth in overseas revenue [6][9] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 due to increased competition and insufficient demand, lowering expected revenues to 78.013 billion yuan and 81.185 billion yuan respectively [9] Group 4: Energy Sector Insights - Kunlun Energy (00135) reported a revenue of 97.543 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, with a total gas sales volume growth of 10.05% [42][43] - The company's LNG processing and transportation segment performed well, achieving record profitability despite a slight decrease in revenue [43][44] - The outlook for the energy sector remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in gas sales and operational efficiency improvements [43][44] Group 5: Retail and Consumer Goods - Xiaoshangcheng (600415) reported a revenue of 7.713 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, with a net profit growth of 16.78% [10] - The company is focusing on expanding its trade services and has successfully completed trials for various consumer goods, indicating strong potential for future growth [10] - The outlook for the retail sector is optimistic, with expectations for continued growth driven by new market openings and the Belt and Road Initiative [10]

机构：天风证券 研究员：刘奕町/曾先毅 受益金铜价格上行，业绩同比高增 公司25H1 实现营收41.55 亿元，yoy+178.36%，实现归母净利润14.34 亿元，同比+732.36%；其中Q2 实 现营收22 亿元，同比+107.7%，环比+12.5%，归母净利润8.25 亿元，同比+2244.8%，环比+35.6%。 长山壕矿：25H1 产量年化超过全年指引，成本稳中有降量：25H1 黄金产量1.43 吨，Q1/2 分别为 0.74/0.69 吨。25H1 黄金销售1.7吨，Q1/2 分别0.9/0.79 吨。 甲玛矿：年化产量超指引，折价系数、副产收益环比升高，成本环比下降量：25H1 黄金产量1.36 吨， Q1/2 分别为0.7/0.66 吨；25H1 黄金销售1.3吨，Q1/2 分别0.65 吨。25H1 铜产量3.5 万吨，Q1/2 分别 1.7/1.8 万吨；25H1铜销售3.4 万吨，Q1/2 分别1.7/1.8 万吨。H1 副产银86 吨，铅2.1 万吨，锌1.1 万吨， 钼453 吨。 价：25H1 伦铜均价9442 美元/吨，Q1/2 分别为9340/9480 美元/盎司；金银等副 ...

Group 1 - A total of 85 stocks reached a 52-week high as of August 20, with notable performers including Xie Ruilin (00417) at 90.83%, Wanbao Gang Group (01213) at 47.76%, and Jin Zhi Zun Group (02882) at 45.21% [1] - The closing prices and highest prices for the top three stocks are as follows: Xie Ruilin at 1.390 and 2.290, Wanbao Gang Group at 0.455 and 0.495, and Jin Zhi Zun Group at 1.020 and 1.060 [1] - Other significant stocks that reached new highs include International Yongsheng Group (06663) at 41.41% and Hengdu Group (00725) at 41.18% [1] Group 2 - The report also lists stocks that reached new lows, with Shanghai Pioneer Holdings (01345) showing a decline of 11.47% and Hongyu Smart City Services (00265) down by 8.97% [3] - Other stocks with notable declines include Hometown Interactive (03798) at -5.56% and Fan Yuan International (02516) at -3.23% [3] - The lowest prices recorded for these stocks include Shanghai Pioneer at 1.590 and Hongyu Smart City at 0.710 [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Gold International (02099) has seen a significant increase in stock price, reaching a historical high of 84.15 HKD, driven by strong financial performance in its recent interim results for 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a sales revenue of 580 million USD, representing a year-on-year increase of 178.36% [1] - Mining operating profit reached 277 million USD, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 1443.71% [1] - Shareholder profit attributable to the company was 200 million USD, a turnaround from a loss of 31.67 million USD in the same period last year [1] Market Outlook - Industrial analysts at Industrial Securities express optimism regarding the long-term outlook for gold and copper prices, particularly in light of rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The company’s Longshanhao gold mine has stabilized production, and the Jiama mine is planning to commence the third phase of tailings storage in the first half of 2027, which is expected to enhance mining capacity and restore production levels [1]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - Chow Sang Sang (00116) surged over 18%, expecting a mid-term profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 900 million to 920 million [1] - XPeng Motors (09868) rose over 4%, reporting a 125.3% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2, achieving a historical high for a single quarter [1] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382) increased over 6%, with a 52.56% year-on-year rise in mid-term profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] - China Gold International (02099) gained over 3%, reporting a turnaround to profitability in the first half of 2025, supported by a rich resource reserve and stable production [1] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) fell over 8%, announcing a 6.5% discount on a placement to raise nearly HKD 3.9 billion for innovative drug development [1] - Pop Mart (09992) rose over 6%, with adjusted net profit in the first half of 2025 increasing 3.6 times year-on-year [1] - Kunlun Energy (00135) dropped over 3%, reporting a 4.36% year-on-year decrease in mid-term profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Other Stocks - Gilead Sciences (01672) fell over 8%, announcing a placement to raise a net amount of HKD 468 million, while its controlling shareholder cashed out nearly HKD 390 million [2] - Yixin Group (02858) rose over 1%, reporting a 28% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, with financial technology revenue soaring 124% [2] - Lithium stocks declined, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) both dropping nearly 6%, amid inventory pressure in the lithium carbonate spot market [2] Group 3: US Stocks - Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US) rose 3.06%, exceeding expectations in Q4 earnings and providing optimistic guidance for future earnings [3] - BHP Group (BHP.US) increased 0.51%, reporting dividends exceeding expectations despite weak iron ore and coal prices [3] - NIO (NIO.US) rose 4.11%, with its L90 model delivering 6,400 units in 20 days since launch, with the factory operating at full capacity [3] - New Oriental (EDU.US) fell 2.79%, influenced by a drop in Oriental Selection's stock, while denying regulatory investigation rumors [3] - Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US) plummeted 42.12% after reporting adverse side effects in its experimental obesity drug trials [4] - Arm (ARM.US) dropped 5.00%, as it hired Amazon's AI chip director to advance its chip development plans [4] - Home Depot (HD.US) rose 3.17%, reaching a new high since January, with Q2 net sales meeting market expectations [4] - Best Buy (BBY.US) increased 3.20%, launching a third-party online shopping platform to expand product variety [4] - Nexstar Media Group (NXST.US) rose 0.65%, announcing a $6.2 billion acquisition of Tegna [4] - Aurora Innovation (AUR.US) fell over 8%, closing down 7.14% after a short-seller report questioned its profit potential [5] - Boeing (BA.US) dropped 3.19%, with Airbus A320 deliveries expected to surpass Boeing's soon [5]

消息面上，中国黄金国际近日发布2025年中期业绩，销售收入5.8亿美元，同比增加178.36%；矿山经营 盈利2.77亿美元，同比增加1443.71%；股东应占溢利2亿美元，上年同期股东应占亏损3167.4万美元， 同比扭亏为盈。公告称，黄金平均实现售价由2024年首六个月的每盎司2285美元上升35%至2025年同期 的每盎司3094美元。长山壕矿的黄金销量为52893盎司(黄金产量：45829盎司)，而2024年同期为39951 盎司(黄金产量：40257盎司)。 兴业证券认为，美联储降息预期升温，中长期看好黄金及铜价格中枢上移。长山壕金矿生产恢复稳定， 甲玛矿规划27H1投产三期尾矿库并着手提高采矿证载能力，届时产量有望恢复至尾砂外溢前水平。国 信证券指出，考虑到公司金、铜产品组合，资源储量丰富，产量稳中有升，给予公司2025年12-13倍估 值目标，相对于目前股价有约18%-28%上涨空间，首次覆盖，给予"优于大市"评级。 中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)涨超5%，高见84.15港元创历史新高。截至发稿，涨5.28%，报83.75港 元，成交额7186.65万港元。 ...

兴业证券认为，美联储降息预期升温，中长期看好黄金及铜价格中枢上移。长山壕金矿生产恢复稳定， 甲玛矿规划27H1投产三期尾矿库并着手提高采矿证载能力，届时产量有望恢复至尾砂外溢前水平。国 信证券指出，考虑到公司金、铜产品组合，资源储量丰富，产量稳中有升，给予公司2025年12-13倍估 值目标，相对于目前股价有约18%-28%上涨空间，首次覆盖，给予"优于大市"评级。 消息面上，中国黄金国际近日发布2025年中期业绩，销售收入5.8亿美元，同比增加178.36%；矿山经营 盈利2.77亿美元，同比增加1443.71%；股东应占溢利2亿美元，上年同期股东应占亏损3167.4万美元， 同比扭亏为盈。公告称，黄金平均实现售价由2024年首六个月的每盎司2285美元上升35%至2025年同期 的每盎司3094美元。长山壕矿的黄金销量为52893盎司(黄金产量：45829盎司)，而2024年同期为39951 盎司(黄金产量：40257盎司)。 智通财经APP获悉，中国黄金国际(02099)涨超5%，高见84.15港元创历史新高。截至发稿，涨5.28%， 报83.75港元，成交额7186.65万港元。 ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks experienced volatility, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.21% at 25,122.9 points and a total turnover of 278.2 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.3% to 9,006.23 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.67% to 5,542.03 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - China Resources Beer saw a significant increase of 6.24%, closing at 28.28 HKD, contributing 4.24 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - The company reported a revenue of 23.942 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.789 billion RMB, up 23.04% [2] - Other notable blue chips included Zhongsheng Holdings, which rose 8.29%, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical, which increased by 4.75% [2] Sector Performance - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tencent up 0.94% and Alibaba down 0.25% [3] - AI application stocks performed well, with Zhihu-W rising 23% and Fenbi increasing by nearly 14% [3] - The property management sector was active, with Wanwu Cloud rising 7.19% and Sunac Services increasing by 5.18% [4][5] Earnings Reports - Wanwu Cloud reported a revenue of 18.14 billion RMB, a 3.1% year-on-year increase, and a core net profit of 1.32 billion RMB, up 10.8% [5] - Kancheng Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 1.569 billion RMB, a 23.7% increase, and a net profit of 498 million RMB, up 24.6% [8] - Li Auto announced a revenue of 24.25 billion RMB, a 174% increase, with a gross margin of 14.1% [9] Notable Stock Movements - Dongfang Zhenxuan experienced a significant drop of 20.89%, closing at 34.32 HKD, following rumors regarding its CEO [12] - Gilead Sciences saw a decline of 15.01% after announcing a share placement and a new share subscription at a discount [13]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profitability in the first half of the year, achieving a revenue of $580 million, up 178% year-on-year, and a net profit of $200 million, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The production and sales data for core products indicate strong performance, with gold production of 2.74 tons and copper production of 34,900 tons in the first half of the year, suggesting a high likelihood of exceeding annual production guidance [1] Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved Q1/Q2 revenues of $273 million and $307 million respectively, with Q2 showing a 12% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The net profit for Q1/Q2 was $85 million and $115 million respectively, with Q2 reflecting a 35% quarter-on-quarter growth [1] Production and Sales Data - Gold production for the first half was 2.74 tons, with Q1/Q2 production of 1.39 tons and 1.35 tons respectively; gold sales were 2.94 tons, with Q1/Q2 sales of 1.50 tons and 1.44 tons [1] - Copper production reached 34,900 tons, with Q1/Q2 production of 16,900 tons and 18,000 tons; copper sales were 34,300 tons, with Q1/Q2 sales of 16,700 tons and 17,600 tons [1] Cost Structure - The unit production cost for gold at Changshanhao was $1,619 per ounce, with Q1/Q2 costs of $1,625 and $1,612 per ounce respectively [2] - The unit production cost for copper at Jiama was $3.29 per pound, with Q1/Q2 costs of $3.41 and $3.19 per pound; after deducting by-product credits, the copper unit cost was $0.53 per pound for the first half, with Q1/Q2 costs of $0.73 and $0.33 per pound, indicating significant cost optimization in Q2 [2] Operational Insights - Changshanhao gold mine operates as an open-pit mining operation with a designed capacity of 60,000 tons per day, reduced to 40,000 tons per day as of July 2019; the mine is approaching the end of its life, with underground operations expected to commence around 2029-2030 [3] - Jiama copper-gold polymetallic mine employs both underground and open-pit mining methods, with a combined capacity of 50,000 tons per day; operations were halted due to tailings overflow in March 2023, but are expected to resume in May 2024 with a reduced capacity of 34,000 tons per day [3] - The company is actively advancing the construction of a third tailings storage facility, expected to be completed and operational by mid-2027, which will increase total daily processing capacity to 44,000 tons [3]