Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for China Pacific Insurance (2328) [1]. Core Views - The company is actively exploring high-quality development paths for new energy vehicle insurance, leveraging advantages in pricing, channels, and claims to continuously optimize the comprehensive cost ratio, achieving better underwriting profitability than the industry average [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Pacific Insurance held a 2024 Capital Market Open Day on November 8, showcasing its exploration and practices in the high-quality development of new energy vehicle insurance [4]. Investment Recommendations - The company is committed to providing comprehensive risk protection for new energy vehicles, benefiting from its strengths in pricing, channels, claims, risk reduction, and integration, which positively impacts its underwriting profitability [4]. - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is set at 1.56, 1.63, and 1.70 RMB, with a target price of 15.84 HKD per share, corresponding to a P/B of 1.4 times for 2024 [4]. Market Performance - Since 2020, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China have grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59%, with the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 45.79% in the first nine months of 2024 [4]. - The company has effectively implemented the new national policy focusing on commercial insurance for new energy vehicles, enhancing the quality and scope of underwriting and improving profitability levels [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a group-level strategic project team focusing on new energy vehicle insurance, with a development strategy that includes pricing, channels, claims, risk reduction, and ecological integration [4]. - The company’s market share in new energy vehicle commercial insurance reached 34.45% in the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 1.49 basis points year-on-year, with a comprehensive cost ratio better than the industry average [4]. Financial Projections - The insurance revenue for 2024 is projected at 484,097 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 6% from 2023 [7]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 34,653 million RMB, representing a significant increase of 41% compared to 2023 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company held its 2024 Investor Open Day on November 8, 2024, focusing on "High-Quality Development of New Energy Vehicle Insurance" and introduced innovative measures in auto insurance management and achievements in new energy vehicle insurance [2][6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, making new energy vehicle insurance a key focus for future auto insurance reforms [6] - The company is committed to advancing the transformation and upgrading of new energy vehicle insurance, with expectations for improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) for new energy vehicle insurance [7][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is classified under the non-bank financial/insurance sector [4] - Current stock price is HKD 12.52, with a total market capitalization of HKD 86,379.16 million [4] Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2023, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased from 1.11 million to 7.75 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 91%, significantly higher than the overall growth of traditional passenger vehicles at 4% [6] - The number of new energy vehicles in circulation rose from 4.92 million to 20.41 million, with their share of total vehicle ownership increasing from 1.8% to 6.1% [6] - As of the first half of 2024, the share of new energy vehicles in total vehicle ownership reached 7.2% [6] Market Position - The company's market share in new energy commercial vehicle insurance reached 35.45% in the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company has served over 22 million new energy vehicle customers [7] Future Outlook - The company aims to create a new business model that covers the entire lifecycle of vehicle insurance and all customer service scenarios, enhancing risk management and service capabilities [7] - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be HKD 33.87 billion, HKD 35.73 billion, and HKD 39.80 billion, with growth rates of 38%, 6%, and 11% respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328.HK) [6][5] Core Views - The company has shown robust growth in total premium income, with non-auto insurance growth outpacing auto insurance. For the first three quarters, total premium income increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with auto insurance and non-auto insurance growing by 3.2% and 5.9%, respectively [2][10] - Investment income has significantly improved, with total investment income reaching 27.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.4%. The annualized total investment return rate is 4.4%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s competitive advantage in property and casualty insurance is expected to strengthen, particularly in the auto insurance sector, where the company has a higher proportion of low-loss vehicles and controllable channel costs [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Total premium income for the first three quarters was 409.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%. Auto insurance premiums grew by 3.2%, while non-auto insurance premiums grew by 5.9% [2][10] - In Q3 alone, non-auto insurance premiums saw a significant increase of 11.8% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 26.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.0%. The net profit for Q3 was 9.3 billion yuan, a remarkable growth of 59.7% year-on-year [6][5] - The comprehensive cost ratio for the first three quarters was 98.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with auto insurance and non-auto insurance ratios at 96.8% and 100.5%, respectively [6][11] Investment Insights - The report highlights that the company’s current stock price corresponds to a 2024E price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.98, indicating a low valuation. The estimated reasonable value range is between 13.71 and 14.95 HKD based on comparable company valuations [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for PICC P&C, with a revised target price of HK$14.00, representing a 15.9% upside from the current price of HK$12.08 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's net profit after tax (NPAT) grew 38.0% year-on-year to RMB26.75 billion for the first nine months of 2024, with a record high NPAT of RMB8.26 billion in Q3 2024, driven by significant fair value gains of RMB7.4 billion [1]. - The combined ratio (CoR) for non-auto insurance deteriorated to 100.5% in the first nine months of 2024, with Q3 CoR reaching 105.3%, attributed to increased catastrophic losses from non-auto claims [1][3]. - Auto CoR improved to 96.8% in the first nine months of 2024, contributing to a 30.6% year-on-year growth in auto underwriting premium (UWP) to RMB71.2 billion [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total investment income surged 70.4% year-on-year to RMB27.5 billion in the first nine months of 2024, with a significant increase in Q3 investment income driven by fair value gains [1][6]. - The report forecasts EPS for FY24E at RMB1.44, with subsequent years projected at RMB1.51 for FY25E and RMB1.60 for FY26E, reflecting an upward revision of 8% for FY24E [2][3]. - The combined ratio is expected to be 97.7% for FY24E, slightly improving to 97.4% in FY25E and 97.2% in FY26E [3][9]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 1.0x FY24E P/B, which is above the historical average, indicating a premium valuation [1][5]. - The dividend yield is projected to increase to 5.2% in FY24E, with further growth expected in subsequent years [2][9]. - The report highlights a long-term ROE of 13.5% and a target valuation of RMB275.7 billion for FY24E [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 12.0 to HKD 14.9, indicating a potential upside of 22.1% [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The significant growth in net profit for the third quarter is primarily driven by investment income, with a year-on-year increase of 38% for the first three quarters, aligning with the company's previous earnings forecast [1][2]. - The insurance service revenue growth remains stable, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters, while the growth rates for auto and non-auto insurance are 4.7% and 6.1%, respectively [1][2]. - The combined ratio for auto insurance improved to 96.8%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the non-auto insurance segment experienced underwriting losses, leading to a combined ratio of 100.5% for the first three quarters, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Total investment income for the first three quarters increased by 70% year-on-year, exceeding the annual total investment income forecast for 2023 by 32%. The annualized total investment return stands at 4.4%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. - The report projects a 31% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to reach 13% [2][5]. - The forecast for insurance service revenue is set at RMB 483,629 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% [4][5]. - The underwriting profit is expected to decline by 3.2% in 2024, with total investment income projected to rise by 51.5% [5][6]. Stock Performance Metrics - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 31.47%, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 84.17 billion and an average daily trading volume of 18.79 million shares [3][8]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 14.04 and HKD 8.69, respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328) and raises the target price to HKD 15.84 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/B of 1.4 times [3]. Core Views - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 38% year-on-year, primarily driven by improved investment profits, while the underwriting side faced pressure [2][3]. - The report highlights a "Matthew Effect" in auto insurance, which has led to an improvement in the combined ratio (COR), while non-auto insurance has been adversely affected by catastrophic claims, resulting in a higher COR [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit of CNY 26.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.0%, mainly due to improved investment profits. The total investment return rate (not annualized) was 4.4%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The underwriting profit decreased by 12.3% year-on-year, attributed to increased catastrophic claims, with the combined ratio rising by 0.3 percentage points to 98.2% [3]. Auto Insurance - Auto insurance premiums grew by 3.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by stable growth in the number of insured vehicles. However, the average premium per vehicle decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, although it improved by 0.8% compared to the first half of 2024 [3]. - The auto insurance COR for the first three quarters was 96.8%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from the company's scale effect and effective risk reduction measures [3]. Non-Auto Insurance - Non-auto insurance premium income increased by 5.9% year-on-year, primarily driven by health and liability insurance, which grew by 8.0% and 11.8% respectively. However, agricultural insurance saw a slowdown in growth, increasing by only 1.0% year-on-year [3]. - The underwriting loss for non-auto insurance was CNY 676 million, with a combined ratio of 100.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, largely due to natural disasters [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the recovery in the equity market will serve as a catalyst for improved performance [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for China P&C Insurance (02328 HK) with a target price of HKD 15 2 [1] Core Views - China P&C Insurance achieved insurance service revenue of RMB 364 306 billion in 2024Q1-3, a year-on-year increase of 5 3% Net profit reached RMB 26 750 billion, up 38 0% year-on-year, close to the upper limit of the previous performance forecast [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for the first three quarters was 98 2%, up 0 3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to frequent natural disasters such as typhoons [1] - The total investment yield for the first three quarters was 4 4% (not annualized), an increase of 1 7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the recovery of the equity market [1] - The company's premium growth accelerated, with motor insurance, health insurance, and liability insurance showing significant growth [1] Business Performance - In 2024Q1-3, the company's original premium income reached RMB 428 330 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4 6% Motor insurance contributed 49 8% of the original premium income, with a year-on-year growth of 3 2% [1] - Non-motor insurance premium income increased by 5 9% year-on-year, with health insurance and liability insurance growing by 8 0% and 11 8% respectively [1] - The COR for motor insurance was 96 8%, within the target range of 97%, while the COR for non-motor insurance was 100 5%, mainly affected by natural disasters [1] Investment Performance - The company's investment income significantly improved, with a total investment yield of 4 4% in 2024Q1-3, up 1 7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The recovery of the equity market, especially after the "924" market rally, contributed to the increase in investment income [1] - The company's net profit growth was close to the upper limit of the forecast, driven by investment income [1] Financial Forecast - The report revised the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to RMB 1 51/1 59/1 70, up from the previous forecast of RMB 1 37/1 54/1 70 [1] - The target PB ratio for 2025 is set at 1 1x, corresponding to a target price of HKD 15 2 [1] Market Performance - The current price of China P&C Insurance is HKD 12 08, with a total market capitalization of HKD 268 7 billion and a circulating market capitalization of HKD 83 3 billion [3] - The company's 12-month high/low price range is HKD 14 04/8 08 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's net profit for the first three quarters increased by 38.0% year-on-year to 26.75 billion yuan, primarily driven by a significant rise in total investment income due to a recovery in the capital market [3][4] - The underwriting performance was under pressure due to the impact of major disasters, with the combined cost ratio rising to 98.2%, higher than expected [4][5] - The company is expected to continue its high-quality transformation, optimizing its business structure and improving risk identification capabilities [6] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 12.20 - H-share market value (billion HKD): 2,713.62 - 52-week high/low (HKD): 14.12/8.55 [2] Financial Performance - Insurance service income for the first three quarters increased by 5.3% year-on-year to 364.31 billion yuan [4] - The combined cost ratio for non-auto insurance increased by 2.3 percentage points to 108.3% in Q3 2024, leading to a significant underwriting loss [5] - The company’s total investment return rate for the first three quarters was 4.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised to 32.67 billion, 34.84 billion, and 38.03 billion yuan respectively [6][7] - The company’s price-to-book ratio for 2024E is 0.97x, indicating a relatively safe valuation cushion [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the profit growth is driven by investment gains, with the company's performance nearing the upper end of its previously announced profit forecast of 20% to 40% [1] - The company achieved an insurance service revenue of CNY 364.31 billion for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - Net profit for the same period reached CNY 26.75 billion, a significant increase of 38.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a recovery in the stock market boosting fair value changes [1] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Insurance service revenue (CNY million): - 2022A: 424,355 - 2023A: 457,203 - 2024E: 494,002 - 2025E: 529,798 - 2026E: 569,764 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 6.9% - 2023A: 7.7% - 2024E: 8.0% - 2025E: 7.2% - 2026E: 7.5% - Net profit attributable to shareholders (CNY million): - 2022A: 29,163 - 2023A: 24,585 - 2024E: 29,641 - 2025E: 32,330 - 2026E: 34,478 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 30.4% - 2023A: -15.7% - 2024E: 20.6% - 2025E: 9.1% - 2026E: 6.6% - Return on equity (ROE): - 2022A: 13.4% - 2023A: 10.8% - 2024E: 12.1% - 2025E: 12.0% - 2026E: 11.8% - Price-to-book ratio (P/B): - 2022A: 1.20 - 2023A: 1.08 - 2024E: 0.98 - 2025E: 0.90 - 2026E: 0.83 [1] Performance Analysis - The company reported a cumulative ROE of 11.1% for the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The total investment return rate improved significantly from 2.7% in 9M23 to 4.4% in 9M24, which was a key factor in the net profit improvement [1] - The company experienced a decline in underwriting profit, with a total underwriting profit down 12.7% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The cumulative comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for auto insurance was 96.8% for 9M24, showing a slight improvement due to effective cost control [1] - Non-auto insurance faced challenges with a COR of 100.5% for 9M24, primarily due to increased claims from natural disasters [1] - The report notes that the company is focusing on high-quality development and implementing a new business model combining insurance, risk reduction services, and technology [1]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 26.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%, aligning with expectations. The underwriting profit and total investment income were 6.44 billion yuan and 27.5 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 13% and an increase of 70%. The Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.26 billion yuan, turning from a loss of 870 million yuan in Q3 2023, but down 35% quarter-on-quarter. The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for the first three quarters increased by 0.8 percentage points to 98.2%, up from 96.2% in H1 2024. Due to improvements driven by the equity market, profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 36.5 billion, 36.8 billion, and 38.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.6, 1.7, and 1.7 yuan [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's insurance service revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 364.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The revenue from auto insurance and non-auto insurance was 219.5 billion yuan and 144.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.7% and 6.1%. The comprehensive cost ratio for the first three quarters increased to 98.2%, with Q3 COR reaching 102%, influenced by natural disasters leading to higher claims [4][5]. Investment Income - Total investment income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 27.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%, with Q3 showing a remarkable increase of 1261%. The annualized total investment return rate was 5.9%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily benefiting from significant improvements in the equity market [5]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is a leader in the property insurance industry, with a competitive advantage. The current dividend yield is 4.39%, and the current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 6.8, 6.8, and 6.4 for 2024-2026, and P/B ratios of 1.0, 0.9, and 0.8, respectively. The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on these metrics [3][4].